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The (kinda) slow motion implosion of theatrical exhibition thread

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Man, the zoom calls for the various industry trade groups are getting more and more depressing. All these men and women in their late 50s and up who can't come to terms with the fact that the market is forever changed.

Which brings me to the scuttlebutt really dominating discussion now: Soul and Black Widow are getting moved by Disney, Black Widow will be moving in the February Marvel slot, and Soul will either move to summer 2021 or go to D+ for free and PVOD on other platforms, so a new experiment in how to handle D+ and PVOD.

Warner is getting a LOT of pressure from AT&T to move all their theatrical product to May 2021 at the earliest, resetting WW84 and Dune to 1 year post their original dates.

Sony is looking at a possible March 2021 for Bond

 

Paramount and Universal are already done with 2020 and now deciding how far in to 2021 to push their product. 

 

There is a good chance we don't see any major new releases until February 2021. What a time to be alive.

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TwinIon

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Has there been much talk about how the $30 PVOD releases have been doing? Even as someone that used to go to the theater a few times month, I think we've only paid for one of those rentals so far. Of course, many of the movies that I would absolutely pay $30 for haven't been options.

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1 hour ago, TwinIon said:

Has there been much talk about how the $30 PVOD releases have been doing? Even as someone that used to go to the theater a few times month, I think we've only paid for one of those rentals so far. Of course, many of the movies that I would absolutely pay $30 for haven't been options.


The studios are holding most of that close to the vest, but the gossip is that these "Theater at Home" things over performed in April and May, and have slowly tailed off since. There seems to generally be a drop off in home entertainment right now, and a lot of the survey data is showing people are just tired of being at home and watching TV as their primary form of entertainment. Even the pro-sports leagues have been down on viewership. At the same time, people are being cautious with what they are willing to go do outside the home, so the theaters that have reopened (minus drive ins) are struggling to get butts in seats.

There is some thought that $30 was just too high even though it's about the cost of taking the family to a matinee. I wouldn't be surprised if Disney does go the PVOD route on Soul that they try a more aggressive price point this time. But maybe it isn't the price?

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SoberChef

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23 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

Has there been much talk about how the $30 PVOD releases have been doing? Even as someone that used to go to the theater a few times month, I think we've only paid for one of those rentals so far. Of course, many of the movies that I would absolutely pay $30 for haven't been options.

While nothing as of yet has grabbed me to "MUST SEE ASAP" levels, if say something like Bond 25 were to get released this way, I would definitely pull the trigger on it with one caveat however. That being a tiered system where it is one price for a one time rental or another for a guaranteed copy to own in perpetuity with extra features etc. to be uploaded when available on home releases.

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number305

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32 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


The studios are holding most of that close to the vest, but the gossip is that these "Theater at Home" things over performed in April and May, and have slowly tailed off since. There seems to generally be a drop off in home entertainment right now, and a lot of the survey data is showing people are just tired of being at home and watching TV as their primary form of entertainment. Even the pro-sports leagues have been down on viewership. At the same time, people are being cautious with what they are willing to go do outside the home, so the theaters that have reopened (minus drive ins) are struggling to get butts in seats.

There is some thought that $30 was just too high even though it's about the cost of taking the family to a matinee. I wouldn't be surprised if Disney does go the PVOD route on Soul that they try a more aggressive price point this time. But maybe it isn't the price?

Soul to me looks fantastic and could be another home run.  But I'm not sure the general public knows what it is at all.  If they are going to charge $20-$30 for it then they still need to advertise for it before hand like it is a major release.  If it just drops then very few people will pay for it.

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Mercury33

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I think $30 is too high. I don’t mind throwing around cash for entertainment but even I have paused at that price. Granted, like others have said. They haven’t released any movies I consider “must see” in that format yet. If Wonder Woman or Dune was released I would pay it in a heart beat. $20 I think is a much easier to swallow price. 

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silentbob

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If they start doing more VOD like releases. I know 3D streaming/purchasing options were a thing when they tried rolling out the 3D TVs. Nothing there now, but 3D still seems big with us projector owners. If they spent the money for the 3D conversion already. I would hope there is a way that some of us 3D fans could enjoy it at home.

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I just got an email that our weekly regional theater owner Zoom call is a webinar about how to file for bankruptcy. It's going to be brutal the rest of the year as theater after theater closes their doors.

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Chris-

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A local indie theater is doing super cheap rentals for whatever they are featuring: $150/off-peak and $170/peak for up to 20 people in attendance. If Bond ends up dropping this year I will 100% shell that out (and maybe invite like, four people I trust to not bring COVID) just to see it in a theater. 

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TheLeon

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5 hours ago, Chris- said:

A local indie theater is doing super cheap rentals for whatever they are featuring: $150/off-peak and $170/peak for up to 20 people in attendance. If Bond ends up dropping this year I will 100% shell that out (and maybe invite like, four people I trust to not bring COVID) just to see it in a theater. 

:batting:

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Well, April 2021 instead of March 2021 for Bond. I'm all but certain there will be no major US releases until March at this point. The market conditions simply can't improve any reasonable amount with the winter approaching, no vaccine, and people really over even trying beyond the most basic things like wearing masks indoors.

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number305

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3 hours ago, sblfilms said:

Well, April 2021 instead of March 2021 for Bond. I'm all but certain there will be no major US releases until March at this point. The market conditions simply can't improve any reasonable amount with the winter approaching, no vaccine, and people really over even trying beyond the most basic things like wearing masks indoors.

Can the big theater chains survive that long on the hope people will come back? 

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Keyser_Soze

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3 hours ago, sblfilms said:

Well, April 2021 instead of March 2021 for Bond. I'm all but certain there will be no major US releases until March at this point. The market conditions simply can't improve any reasonable amount with the winter approaching, no vaccine, and people really over even trying beyond the most basic things like wearing masks indoors.

 

Will you hold a birthday showing in my name?

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5 hours ago, number305 said:

Can the big theater chains survive that long on the hope people will come back? 

 

I think they will, but not with the same theater counts. They shedding of lower performing locations will be substantial.

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19 hours ago, number305 said:
cineworld.jpg?w=1000

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Cineworld to Close All Regal Cinemas, U.K. Venues in Response to ‘No Time to Die’ Delay

VARIETY.COM
Cineworld is shuttering all U.S. and U.K. cinemas this coming week, just days after “No Time to Die” was pushed to April 2021.

 

Regal done in the US. 😕


Expect to hear the same from AMC and Cinemark over the next 2-3 weeks. 2020 is done, and Q1 2021 is probably off the table as well. April is really the month to eye for major releases and major reopenings...if anybody can even last til then.

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2 hours ago, DarkStar189 said:

The theaters that are closing, are they planning to reopen eventually? Can they afford to sit empty that long? 


This will unquestionably lead to massive contraction in location counts. My initial guess would be a minimum of 30% of screens are gone.

 

2 hours ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

AMC has enough liquidity to stay open for another 6 months. AMC bleeds cash faster open than closed so I expect them to close at this point and hope for either a bailout or outside investment. 

Every theater right now, drive ins the exception, is better off being closed and preserving cash until there is a steady stream of new product. But I don’t think that happens until April at this point.

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number305

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17 hours ago, sblfilms said:


This will unquestionably lead to massive contraction in location counts. My initial guess would be a minimum of 30% of screens are gone.

 

Every theater right now, drive ins the exception, is better off being closed and preserving cash until there is a steady stream of new product. But I don’t think that happens until April at this point.

That all really sucks.  The movies that are still supposed to come out this year - free guy, monster hunter... I wonder what possible business they can do.

 

Even next April, hopefully we can be getting back to normal.  But something will need to change for that to happen.  Either the virus will need to mutate and not be killing people anymore, or we are going to need a working vaccine or treatment.  If nothing has changed by next April then nothing will change for the theatre industry.

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5 minutes ago, number305 said:

That all really sucks.  The movies that are still supposed to come out this year - free guy, monster hunter... I wonder what possible business they can do.

 

Even next April, hopefully we can be getting back to normal.  But something will need to change for that to happen.  Either the virus will need to mutate and not be killing people anymore, or we are going to need a working vaccine or treatment.  If nothing has changed by next April then nothing will change for the theatre industry.


People barely care now, I don’t think 6 months down the road you will have very large scale care :p

 

Also, with the way things are going half the country will probably have contracted it by then.

 

Also, international markets will continue to improve even if the US is a dumpster fire.

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number305

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37 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


People barely care now, I don’t think 6 months down the road you will have very large scale care :p

 

Also, with the way things are going half the country will probably have contracted it by then.

 

Also, international markets will continue to improve even if the US is a dumpster fire.

 

Well there is either a reason to care or there isn't.  If we shouldn't care in 6 months then we shouldn't care now.

 

If nothing changes with the virus and everyone goes back to business as usual with no health repercussions... then the only real reason for all this was the election.  :( 

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SimpleG

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44 minutes ago, TheLeon said:

I’m trying to support my local theaters, but there’s just nothing to see. What am I gonna do, watch Tenet for a third time?

 

Possessor looks interesting, but that’s it right now. 

Possessor looks real good. I got one theater that’s playing it and I am having a hard time deciding if I should go.

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