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Sounds like NAFTA probably dies this week


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4 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

Why did they do a deal with Mexico if they wanted to keep Mexico out? Is this part of the them building the wall deal?

 

Because Trump is a fucking moron who only likes bilateral agreements.

 

Quote

Trump’s view of the economy is a 20th century one, Cohn complains in the book–images of locomotives, smokestacks and assembly-line workers. Cohn every month would show Trump statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing droves of people returning from manufacturing jobs or leaving manufacturing jobs voluntarily for service jobs. Trump would not believe the statistics. Cohn, reports Woodward, asked Trump, “Why do you have these views?” Trump answered, “I don’t know…I just do. I’ve had these views for 30 years.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2018/09/12/woodward-trump-painted-as-out-of-touch-on-autos-trade-and-unreachable-by-key-advisers/#438f2e554e8c

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Not surprisingly, since this trade battle has begun Trudeau's numbers have risen in Canada, placing his party back on top of the Conservatives. To make matters worse for the Conservatives, a popular MP from their party (who almost won leadership last year) has left to start a new right-wing party devoted to true free trade (no supply-side management, which is common in Canada) and will likely siphon away a few %.

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8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Apparently a deal has been made by negotiators, and now both countries need to agree to it. The Canadian cabinet is meeting tonight and will have an unprecedented vote on it, rather than just the Prime Minister agreeing to it. I expect that Trump will just reject it for giggles.

 

Wouldn't this need to be approved by the Senate? @SFLUFAN

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48 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Apparently a deal has been made by negotiators, and now both countries need to agree to it. The Canadian cabinet is meeting tonight and will have an unprecedented vote on it, rather than just the Prime Minister agreeing to it. I expect that Trump will just reject it for giggles.

 

Washington Post just reported that Canada agreed to the deal.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-and-canada-closing-in-on-a-new-nafta-deal-as-deadline-looms/2018/09/30/2ef72018-c50b-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html?utm_term=.bacdb5e38a87

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On 9/26/2018 at 9:46 AM, Jason said:

 

No, but car prices going through the roof will.

The inflationary effects of the tariffs could easily be masked by a rising dollar, owing to the continued interest rate hikes and the reversal of capital flows out of emerging markets back to America.

 

But if at some point investors lose confidence and a downturn hits, watch out

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Major points:

 

  • The potential agreement would preserve Chapter 19
  • It would also allow Canadian consumers to purchase five times ($20 to $100) more foreign merchandise online without paying import duty than they are currently allowed. The move, which was opposed by the Canadian retail industry, was agreed to by Canada in exchange for still being able to collect sales tax on the purchases
  • U.S. tariffs lifted on Canadian steel and aluminium
  • Guarantee that the Trump administration will not impose tariffs on most auto imports from Canada.
  • Canada would accept a quota system that would place stricter limits on the export of Canadian-made vehicles into the U.S. market, said two sources.
  • Canada will give U.S. farmers access to the Canadian dairy market greater than the 3.2 per cent granted to 10 other countries under the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
  • Ottawa will also change a rule that had largely excluded U.S.-made ultrafiltered milk, a cheese-making ingredient, from Canada.
  • The deal will preserve Canada’s supply management system, which uses a combination of quotas and tariffs to guarantee returns for Canadian farmers.
  • But giving a larger percentage of the market to the U.S. without tariffs is certain to rankle the dairy lobby, which wields significant political influence, particularly in Quebec, which holds a provincial election Monday.

 

The bolded one is the one that will be most heavily-covered in Canada. Right now the cap is 2.25% for foreign nations (all other trade deals), and the US is getting 3.2%. Not really a huge deal, but it allows Trump to declare the deal a win, and will allow the Conservatives in Canada to claim that Trudeau was weak and gave in to a bully. The thing is...what was Canada going to do? The US is 10x our size, so in any negotiation they have the upper hand. While it's true that the US economy would suffer greatly should NAFTA collapse, it's also true that Canada's economy would be destroyed. Overall the deal looks good for both sides. Canada remains the only G7 nation with free-trade deals with all other members.

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47 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Not a huge fan on the change on ip for drug patents but it could have been worse. There is also a review/“sunset” clause at 6 years.

 

on the bright side the loonie had a nice bump to .78 cents (1 cent rise) on the back of the nafta news.

 

Damnit and I just made a $3,600 purchase on a US site last night! Waiting until this morning would have saved me $46! lol

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