Inflation sucks bruh: JPow's Jihad

[CitizenVectron]

Listen, my mortgage is locked in at 1.29% until spring of 2026, so I just need rates to drop back to that level by then! (Canadians typically can only lock in rates for 5 years on mortgages due to the differences in the industry between Canada and the US).

[Jason]

I guess I should switch my treasuries from 28 day t-bills to longer-term ones.

[rc0101]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I think you got UBS and Deutsche Bank mixed up

 

Forget the gloom of the 1970s—UBS thinks the US economy is headed back to a Clinton-like era of the bustling 1990s

FORTUNE.COM

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"The bottom line: Something is afoot with the US economy," wrote UBS's Jason Draho.

 

Their rate cut prediction is 275 basis points by end of ‘24 

 

 

UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession

WWW.CNBC.COM

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UBS expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 275 basis points in 2024, almost four times the market consensus.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, rc0101 said:

Their rate cut prediction is 275 basis points by end of ‘24 

 

 

UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession

WWW.CNBC.COM

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UBS expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 275 basis points in 2024, almost four times the market consensus.

 

 

Ah gotcha - didn't see that one!

[rc0101]

1 minute ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Ah gotcha - didn't see that one!

Yeah they seem to be confused with their messaging or maybe just playing both sides so that they can say they were right!  Sort of like the economists who have been predicting recession for the past 8 years. 

[rc0101]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Listen, my mortgage is locked in at 1.29% until spring of 2026, so I just need rates to drop back to that level by then! (Canadians typically can only lock in rates for 5 years on mortgages due to the differences in the industry between Canada and the US).

I personally don’t think we will see the rates of 2020-2022 for a long long long time. 

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, rc0101 said:

I personally don’t think we will see the rates of 2020-2022 for a long long long time. 

 

A guy can dream, lol! Realistically I know that I won't get 1.29% 5-year fixed again for...possibly ever. But I'd settle for 2.5%!

[SaysWho?]

6 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I think you got UBS and Deutsche Bank mixed up

 

Forget the gloom of the 1970s—UBS thinks the US economy is headed back to a Clinton-like era of the bustling 1990s

FORTUNE.COM

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"The bottom line: Something is afoot with the US economy," wrote UBS's Jason Draho.

 

What they’re feeling toward today’s economic climate tells me that if Trump wins, he’ll just take credit for that and people will think he’s economic genius.

 

So let’s please make sure he doesn’t win and Biden has another four years. Please and thank you. I’ll give you guys chocolate or something.

[stepee]

2 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

What they’re feeling toward today’s economic climate tells me that if Trump wins, he’ll just take credit for that and people will think he’s economic genius.

 

So let’s please make sure he doesn’t win and Biden has another four years. Please and thank you. I’ll give you guys chocolate or something.

 

It won’t be his first time riding coattails of his predecessor as president taking credit for how Democrats are much better at managing the economy! 

[Bacon]

chocolate milk was steadily going down in price

now it suddenly jumped up in price

not to the height of where it once was but back up to post-pandemic price ranges

[SuperSpreader]

2 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

What they’re feeling toward today’s economic climate tells me that if Trump wins, he’ll just take credit for that and people will think he’s economic genius.

 

So let’s please make sure he doesn’t win and Biden has another four years. Please and thank you. I’ll give you guys chocolate or something.

 

I'm hoping it improves by election season to remove that talking point 

[Spork3245]

6 hours ago, Bacon said:

chocolate milk was steadily going down in price

now it suddenly jumped up in price

not to the height of where it once was but back up to post-pandemic price ranges

This is because all of the brown cows are being deported.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Up next: deflation

 

Walmart CEO expects to see ‘period of deflation’ in the coming months - MarketWatch

WWW.MARKETWATCH.COM

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Walmart's stock was down 3.9% early Wednesday as its guidance fell short of estimates.

 

 

Cathie Wood Predicts Deflation to Take Hold in US Next Year

FINANCE.YAHOO.COM

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(Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood said that deflation is already underway in the US across industries and will force the Federal Reserve to kick off a big interest-rate cutting cycle.Most Read from BloombergRolex, Patek Prices Hit Fresh Two-Year Lows: Subdial IndexThailand Takes $28 Billion Malacca Strait Bypass Plan to USS&P 500 Up 2% as Bets ‘Fed Is Done’ Sink US Yields: Markets WrapIsrael Latest: Troops Reported Inside of Gaza Hospital...

 

Quote

 

Cathie Wood said that deflation is already underway in the US across industries and will force the Federal Reserve to kick off a big interest-rate cutting cycle.

 

“The Federal Reserve has overdone it, we’re going to see a lot more deflation going forward,” the head of ARK Investment Management told Bloomberg TV Tuesday. “If we’re right, and they’ve gone way too far, they’ll have to cut fairly significantly.”

 

She added that the CPI inflation rate could turn negative “at some point next year.” US inflation broadly slowed in October, which markets cheered as a strong indication that the Fed is done raising interest rates. The aforementioned data was released Tuesday.

 

Wood said that a deflationary trend that began in commodities is now extending out to airline and auto prices. She has long expected an era of falling prices, backed by new technologies including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, robotics, genomic sequencing and blockchain. She has also criticized the Fed previously, saying its aggressive hikes could increase the risks of a deflationary bust.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Deflation is the new economic zeitgeist.

 

What is deflation? It's not necessarily something to cheer, economists say - MarketWatch

WWW.MARKETWATCH.COM

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After watching prices soar since last year, Americans and their whiplashed wallets could see things go in a new direction — prices could actually drop.

 

 

Public and Pundit Confusion Between Slowing Inflation and Promoting Deflation

WWW.DORFONLAW.ORG

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Here on the blog yesterday I drew an analogy between popular confusion about fiscal policy (highlighting the frequent but misleading compar...

 

[stepee]

lollllllllllll

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The jihad will not go quietly into the night.

 

Fed's Susan Collins says more rate hikes can't be taken off the table yet

WWW.CNBC.COM

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Other officials have been saying much of the same, essentially that inflation is showing progress but still has a way to go.

 

Quote

 

Despite recent encouraging signs on inflation, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said Friday that more interest rate hikes could yet be needed.

 

“I understand the tendency to really enjoy good news, and there was some good news in some of the numbers — and I think that we need to appreciate that. But I don’t see additional firming off the table,” the central bank official told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. “I think the key point is we need to really stay the course.”

 

Other Fed officials have been saying much of the same, essentially that inflation is showing progress towards the Fed’s 2% 12-month target but still has a way to go. Policymakers are leery over repeating the mistakes of the past, where the Fed quit too early in efforts to bring down inflation and ended up paying for it.

 

 

[TUFKAK]

Just keep putting into my high yield I guess. 

[Jason]

I wonder if the jihad magically packs up on 11/6/2024.

[finaljedi]

They should talk more about how too many people have jobs, people love it when they talk about that

[CitizenVectron]

 

Fuck this chart makes me so mad. Yes, wages went up during this boxed area...because of a global pandemic that killed millions and employers were forced to retain/attract people that could now work anywhere, and inflation dropped due to the impact of the pandemic on the global economy. It's like praising FDR specifically for amazing employment figures in 1941-1945...oh right, except that was because hundreds of millions were dying.

[SuperSpreader]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Fuck this chart makes me so mad. Yes, wages went up during this boxed area...because of a global pandemic that killed millions and employers were forced to retain/attract people that could now work anywhere, and inflation dropped due to the impact of the pandemic on the global economy. It's like praising FDR specifically for amazing employment figures in 1941-1945...oh right, except that was because hundreds of millions were dying.

 

Yup! This! Panic raises and hiring from corporations who couldn't deal with having people not work for a few days.

[osxmatt]

8 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The jihad will not go quietly into the night.

 

Fed's Susan Collins says more rate hikes can't be taken off the table yet

WWW.CNBC.COM

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Other officials have been saying much of the same, essentially that inflation is showing progress but still has a way to go.

 

 

 

Wow does everyone name Susan Collins suck?

[TUFKAK]

9 hours ago, finaljedi said:

They should talk more about how too many people have jobs, people love it when they talk about that

The damn greedy workers getting pay raises are ruining the economy! 

[stepee]

1 minute ago, TUFKAK said:

The damn greedy workers getting pay raises are ruining the economy! 

 

How that fact is so open and NOBODY cares at all because their pundits never touch on it, says a lot, in some way.

[TUFKAK]

1 minute ago, stepee said:

 

How that fact is so open and NOBODY cares at all because their pundits never touch on it, says a lot, in some way.

Most Americans are still drinking the neo liberal Kool-Aid so they don’t question it. 

[finaljedi]

2 hours ago, TUFKAK said:

Most Americans are still drinking the neo liberal Kool-Aid so they don’t question it. 

 

I think most Americans just don't hear about it, also a lot of people just kind of figure bad things won't happen to them.  The pundits never mention it because they're a bunch of useless spectators of news who don't need a real job as long as they say the things to make their rich benefactors happy.

[stepee]

Idk if this is amusing to anyone besides me, but my investment guy I underfunded from because like I’m just not ready, called me last night to gloat. 

[osxmatt]

NYT: Prices are coming down. Here's why that's bad news for Biden.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

On 11/17/2023 at 1:08 PM, CitizenVectron said:

 

Fuck this chart makes me so mad. Yes, wages went up during this boxed area...because of a global pandemic that killed millions and employers were forced to retain/attract people that could now work anywhere, and inflation dropped due to the impact of the pandemic on the global economy. It's like praising FDR specifically for amazing employment figures in 1941-1945...oh right, except that was because hundreds of millions were dying.

Unfortunately, it’s a fact that many of the biggest instances of labor’s power rising relative to capital have come in the aftermath of catastrophes that drastically reduced the worker population.  We arguably wouldn’t have had the industrial revolution and the replacement of feudal serfdom with wage labor without the Black Death drastically shrinking the supply of workers in Europe and giving the nascent industrial bourgeoisie the leverage they needed to demand payment for their services. (and effectively bankrupting the nobility through the attendant inflation)

 

Similarly, a lot of the post-WWII concessions to labor that built the modern middle class of the West were the result of the huge labor shortages caused by the war. (plus the threat of communism and a few other things)

 

It’s kind of grisly, but hey if huge masses of working folk are going to die the least they could get out of it is some bargaining power.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Unfortunately, it’s a fact that many of the biggest instances of labor’s power rising relative to capital have come in the aftermath of catastrophes that drastically reduced the worker population.  We arguably wouldn’t have had the industrial revolution and the replacement of feudal serfdom with wage labor without the Black Death drastically shrinking the supply of workers in Europe and giving the nascent industrial bourgeoisie the leverage they needed to demand payment for their services. (and effectively bankrupting the nobility through the attendant inflation)

 

Similarly, a lot of the post-WWII concessions to labor that built the modern middle class of the West were the result of the huge labor shortages caused by the war. (plus the threat of communism and a few other things)

 

It’s kind of grisly, but hey if huge masses of working folk are going to die the least they could get out of it is some bargaining power.

 

 

 

Oh I'm not opposed to workers getting anything out of a catastrophe, I am just against giving credit to the leaders in power when they do.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Fed gave no indication of possible rate cuts at last meeting, minutes show

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The Federal Reserve on Tuesday released minutes from its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting.

 

Quote

 

Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting expressed little appetite for cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly as inflation remains well above their goal, according to minutes released Tuesday. 

 

The summary of the meeting, held Oct. 31-Nov. 1, showed that Federal Open Market Committee members still worry that inflation could be stubborn or move higher, and that more may need to be done.

 

At the least, they said policy will need to stay “restrictive” until data shows inflation on a convincing trek back to the central bank’s 2 percent goal.

 

 “In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to judge that it was critical that the stance of monetary policy be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time,” the minutes stated.

 

Along with that, however, the minutes showed that members believe they can move “on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks.”

 

 

[Remarkableriots]

Warren Buffett's company has built a record $157 billion cash pile so he can capitalize when the economy tanks, veteran professor Steve Hanke says

FINANCE.YAHOO.COM

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Warren Buffett expects economic trouble, so he's keeping an unprecedented amount of powder dry for when bargains and deals emerge, Steve Hanke says.

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Warren Buffett has amassed a record amount of cash so he's ready to scoop up bargains and strike attractive deals when the American economy descends into turmoil, Steve Hanke says.

 

The famed investor's Berkshire Hathaway held an unprecedented $157 billion of cash, Treasury bills, and other liquid assets at the end of September — a nearly $50 billion increase in 12 months. The company's cash pile grew in part because Buffett and his team sold $5 billion of stocks on a net basis last quarter; they've now offloaded a net $44 billion of stocks over the last four quarters combined.

 

"And with the Fed putting the money supply in a nosedive the likes that we haven't seen since 1933, Buffett is correctly anticipating that troubled economic waters are in the offing," the veteran economist and trader said.

 

[TUFKAK]

You always need cash reserves, in addition to your emergency fund, to buy those dips. 

[Air_Delivery]

Looking like a bad decision at the moment. At least hes getting that sweet interest. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Fed's Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation

WWW.CNBC.COM

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He pointed out a variety of areas where progress has been made, suggesting the Fed at least won't need to hike rates further from here.

 

Quote

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday he’s growing more confident that policy is in a place now to bring inflation back under control.

 

There was nothing in Waller’s prepared remarks for a speech in Washington, D.C., that suggests he’s contemplating cutting interest rates, and he noted that inflation currently is still too high. But he pointed out a variety of areas where progress has made, suggesting the Fed at least won’t need to hike rates further from here.

 

“While I am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand, inflation is still too high, and it is too early to say whether the slowing we are seeing will be sustained,” he said. “But I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent.”

 

A subsequent speech Tuesday morning from Governor Michelle Bowman offered a contrasting view, in which she reiterated her belief that more rate hikes likely will be needed as evolving dynamics keep inflation elevated.

 

The commentary comes two weeks before the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 12-13 policy meeting. Markets largely expect the committee to hold its key lending rate steady in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%. But Fed officials have stressed the importance of remaining vigilant on inflation and keeping their options open.

 

During the central bank’s ongoing battle against inflation, Waller has been one of the more hawkish members, meaning he has favored tighter policy and higher rates. However, he titled his Tuesday speech, “Something Appears to Be Giving,” a contrast to a recent speech titled “Something’s Got to Give.”

 

“I am encouraged by what we have learned in the past few weeks — something appears to be giving, and it’s the pace of the economy,” he said.

 

Waller cited a variety of areas where activity is moderating, from retail sales to the labor market to manufacturing. He also noted easing in supply chain pressures that were largely responsible for the initial jump in inflation, but he said that factor can’t be counted on to help bring inflation down further.

 

“Monetary policy will have to do the work from here on out to get inflation back down to 2 percent,” he said.