Inflation sucks bruh: JPow's Jihad

[CitizenVectron]

13 minutes ago, chakoo said:

I live in dt toronto near rich people, houses near me go from 3mil - 8mil  Hell 2 bedroom condo near me start around 1.2-1.4 mil. =/

 

Housing in Canada is pretty bad near major cities. 

 

Yep. I live in Regina, which is the most-affordable city in Canada over 250k population...and it's still ridiculous. I think the average home price is over $300k now. Granted, my home (purchased for $372,000 in 2021) would be worth $1.5 million+ in certain parts of Toronto or Vancouver...but people get paid less here, and it's not as an exciting place to be.

[CitizenVectron]

18 minutes ago, Ominous said:

2.5 or 1.9 VS something in the 7s....hella rough lol. 

 

In Canada, the vast majority of people finance their mortgage in 5-year intervals (25-year mortgage, refinance every 5 years). In my case, I purchased in Apr 2021 at a 5-year fixed 1.29%. My monthly payment is around $1,400. If rates are similar to what they are now in 2026 when we renew, we are looking at a new monthly payment of around $2,300, which is over 50% of a jump. We could afford that, but what if our house was in Calgary or Mississauga or Montreal, and we paid double? Stats show that 2/3 of people in Canada are on fixed-rate mortgages between 3 and 5-year terms. All of those are coming up in the next few years, and the shock is going to destroy millions of families.

[Jason]

[GeneticBlueprint]

1 hour ago, TUFKAK said:

But with rates now that mortgage is probably higher than two years ago.

 

For sure. I just meant that while interest rates aren't lowering prices in my area they're at least keeping them relatively flat.

[stepee]

4 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The Federal Reserve is never going to lower interest rates ever again.

Dont tease me with a good time! Im at odds with my financial institution (currently looking for an independent advisor as I realized that is what I need to feel safe) as they wanted me to go all in on the market at the end of August. Basicialy like 100% of my money in s&p and municipal bonds funds (so even those couldn’t be held to maturity if things went sour)

 

I pulled back last minute and decided Im going to feel things out and get more council. And yeah, September would have been brutal. And they are still on about it, which will probably lead them to not even being able to hold my money if they keep pushing me. 

 

I get these things are all about long term, but why would I want this celebratory experience at the prime of my life to be a time of constant stress and loss is beyond me. And then yeah, all the free cash I’m getting thrown at me instead right now, I don’t regret that choice. I’m sticking with what my CEO told me, don’t listen to anyone or do anything for two years until you’ve spent more time doing your own research and reading and seeking independent council. 

 

But they are SUPER adamant that I have to get in RIGHT NOW and I just look around and I don’t get it beyond that they are probably right if I were able to just look away for 20 years and look back it would look pretty decent.

[Keyser_Soze]

Gas has been $6 a gallon for several weeks now. Good times.

[Jason]

8 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

Gas has been $6 a gallon for several weeks now. Good times.

 

Time for a 100 basis point hike to tame that inflation! 

[Littleronin]

Amazing how with all this inflation companies are still recording record profits...

[SaysWho?]

22 hours ago, Jason said:

lol

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down

WWW.CNBC.COM

 

 

Quote

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged recent signs of cooling inflation, but said Thursday that the central bank would be “resolute” in its commitment to its 2% mandate.

 

In a widely anticipated speech delivered to the Economic Club of New York, Powell evaded committing to a specific policy path but gave no indication that he was leaning toward a push higher for interest rates.

 

As Powell spoke, futures market traders erased any possibility of a rate hike in November and decreased the chances of a move even in December. He acknowledged the progress made toward bringing inflation back down to a manageable level but stressed vigilance in pursuing the central bank’s goals.

 

“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters.”

 

“While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent,” Powell added.

 

Quote

Powell said he doesn’t think rates are too high now.

 

“Does it feel like policy is too tight right now? I would have to say no,” he said. Still, he noted that “higher interest rates are difficult for everybody.”

 

Quote

In recent days, data has shown that while inflation remains well above the target rate, the pace of monthly increases has decelerated and the annual rate has slowed to 3.7% from more than 9% in June 2022.

 

“Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals —maximum employment and stable prices,” he said.

 

Quote

After a short delay, Powell noted the labor market and economic growth may need to slow to ultimately achieve the Fed’s goal.

 

“Still, the record suggests that a sustainable return to our 2 percent inflation goal is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening in labor market conditions,” Powell said.

 

Quote

“We’re very far from the effective lower bound, and the economy is handling it just fine,” Powell said.

 

Quote

Robust job creation in September and a slow pace of layoffs could put progress on inflation at risk.

 

“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” he said.

 

In recent days, other Fed officials have said they think the Fed can be patient from here. Even some members who favor tighter monetary policy have said they think the Fed can halt rate hikes at least for now while they watch the lagged impact the rate hikes are expected to have on the economy.

 

Markets widely expect the Fed to hold off on additional rate hikes, though there remain questions over when officials might begin cutting rates.

 

Powell was noncommittal on the future of policy.

 

[elbobo]

I've been half heartedly looking for a used car for 6 months and had just about given up and was getting ready to get a new one because used prices were absurd, just in the last couple of weeks have I noticed them finally start to move down, still have 20-30% to go to get to where they should be but they are moving in the right direction.

[Jason]

15 minutes ago, elbobo said:

I've been half heartedly looking for a used car for 6 months and had just about given up and was getting ready to get a new one because used prices were absurd, just in the last couple of weeks have I noticed them finally start to move down, still have 20-30% to go to get to where they should be but they are moving in the right direction.

 

I wanted to replace my current car, but even with the used car market sky high the value I'd get was fucked relative to trying to buy back in to a new car. Would have been a lot easier if I wasn't single and could have temporarily been a two adult one car household while selling high and then waiting for the dip. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

This man is never going to cut interest rates as long as he's Chairman.

 

Hell, inflation could return to the Fed's desired 2% rate and I'd bet he'd still not cut them!

[stepee]

Maybe he likes having all his money collect easy interest without having to worry about the market and just wants to ride that until he dies.

[CitizenVectron]

What I love about this is that they will look at home prices and go "oh wow, homes went up 7% in a year, that is horrible and we need to get that inflation down," but not "oh wow, our interest rate changes have increased the cost of home payments by 50% in a year, we should not do that."

[SaysWho?]

8 minutes ago, stepee said:

Maybe he likes having all his money collect easy interest without having to worry about the market and just wants to ride that until he dies.

 

We're loving that part of it on our end. We've been making some good money on our high interest savings.

[rc0101]

I still hear talk of rates dropping in the summer and I roll my eyes. We better get used to elevated rates and shouldn’t consider loan rates of 8%-10% as temporary. 
 

It sounds like at least no hike in November and they want to see what happens in the bond market before deciding on a hike in December. 

[TUFKAK]

2 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

 

We're loving that part of it on our end. We've been making some good money on our high interest savings.

I’ve been parking half my discretionary into my high yield savings each paycheck while still doing 10% into vtsax 

 

my high yield is out performing the total stock market bad 😂

[osxmatt]

Has someone told Jay that inflation is at 3.7%? Yes, it’s not 2% but it’s (quickly) trending in that direction. Let rates breathe at 5.5% for more than a few months before you decide to go nuclear on the our economy.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The pause in the jihad continues.

 

Fed holds rates steady, upgrades assessment of economic growth

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its decision on monetary policy.

 

Quote

 

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday again held benchmark interest rates steady amid a backdrop of a growing economy and labor market and inflation that is still well above the central bank’s target.

 

In a widely expected move, the Fed’s rate-setting group unanimously agreed to hold the key federal funds rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been since July. This was the second consecutive meeting that the Federal Open Market Committee chose to hold, following a string of 11 rate hikes, including four in 2023.

 

The decision included an upgrade to the committee’s general assessment of the economy.

 

The post-meeting statement indicated that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter,” compared to the September statement that said the economy had expanded at a “solid pace.” The statement also noted that employment gains “have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong.”

 

 

[Jason]

JPow after the announcement:

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

20 hours ago, Jason said:

JPow after the announcement:

 

 

Guess who's really happy today?!?

 

Labor costs show surprise decline in the third quarter

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

Unit labor costs, a measure of hourly compensation against productivity, fell 0.8% for the July-through-September period.

 

Quote

 

The cost of labor unexpectedly declined in the third quarter, providing at least some relief on the inflation front, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

 

Unit labor costs, a measure of hourly compensation against productivity, fell 0.8% for the July-through-September period at a seasonally adjusted rate. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 0.7%. On a 12-month basis, unit labor costs increased 1.9%.

 

The breakdown reflected a 3.9% increase in hourly compensation, offset by a 4.7% rise in productivity.

 

That increase in productivity also was more than expected, beating the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 4.3% for the biggest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2020. Output climbed 5.9%, while hours worked rose 1.1%.

 

The developments come as the Federal Reserve is seeking to tamp down inflation through a series of interest rate increases.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Needless to say, the stock market ABSOLUTELY LOVES that labor cost report and the effect it had on Treasury yields.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

A softer-than-expected October jobs report has resulted in much rejoicing.

 

U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to grow by 170,000 in October, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate.

 

Quote

 

The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a rise of 170,000. The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry.

 

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000.

 

A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point.

 

The labor force participation rate declined slightly to 62.7%, while the labor force contracted by 201,000.

 

“Winter cooling is hitting the labor market,” said Becky Frankiewicz, chief commercial officer at staffing firm ManpowerGroup. “The post-pandemic hiring frenzy and summer hiring warmth has cooled and companies are now holding onto employees.”

 

Average hourly earnings, a key measure for inflation, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% forecast, while the 4.1% year-over-year gain was 0.1 percentage point above expectations. The average work week nudged lower to 34.3 hours.

 

 

[rc0101]

No December hike 

[Spork3245]

 

I’m sure this is going to go extremely well

 

Spoiler

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

The CPI, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month.

 

Quote

 

Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy and giving a potential green light to the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.

 

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

 

The headline CPI had increased 0.4% in September.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual level was the lowest in two years, down from 4.1% in September, though still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, Fed officials have stressed that they want to see a series of declines in core readings, which has been the case since April.

 

 

[stepee]

damnit

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

WWW.CNBC.COM

 

Quote

 

Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 3½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed.

 

The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% increase from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

 

On a yearly basis, headline PPI posted a 1.3% increase, down from 2.2% in September.

 

Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged, also below the forecast for a 0.3% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Hmm. Better raise interest rates.

[rc0101]

They are done raising rates unless there’s a sudden change of direction and now everyone is predicting when the next cut will happen. Fun times. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

3 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

They are done raising rates unless there’s a sudden change of direction and now everyone is predicting when the next cut will happen. Fun times. 

 

The first quarter of negative GDP will be when the first rate cut happens.

[rc0101]

44 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The first quarter of negative GDP will be when the first rate cut happens.

And UBS is expecting the economy to fall off a cliff with their prediction. 

[Ominous]

2 hours ago, rc0101 said:

And UBS is expecting the economy to fall off a cliff with their prediction. 

I hope so. 👹

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

3 hours ago, rc0101 said:

And UBS is expecting the economy to fall off a cliff with their prediction. 

 

I think you got UBS and Deutsche Bank mixed up

 

Forget the gloom of the 1970s—UBS thinks the US economy is headed back to a Clinton-like era of the bustling 1990s

FORTUNE.COM

---

"The bottom line: Something is afoot with the US economy," wrote UBS's Jason Draho.