Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Anathema-]

3 hours ago, Chris- said:

Whoever comes up with these military acronyms should be shot with an ATACAMS, whatever that is. 

 

In the military you either use the acronym you got or you put someone in charge of acronyms and they wind up worse.

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Anathema-]

I really hesitate when I hear any sort of dehumanizing talk but the Russian love for war crimes makes them truly seem like a whole different sort of person.

[Anathema-]

Plenty of Americans love war crimes, to be sure, but it's not institutional like that.

[CayceG]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

Hopefully this is an exaggeration and the advisor gave some bad info. 

 

 

 

I generally trust Ollie Carroll.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 14 September 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Prigozhin gave a recruitment speech on September 14 announcing that Russian prisoners have been participating in the war sin

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Prigozhin gave a recruitment speech on September 14 announcing that Russian prisoners have been participating in the war since July 1 when they were instrumental in seizing the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant.[1] A Russian milblogger noted that Prigozhin is introducing a “Stalinist” method that allows the Kremlin to avoid ordering a general mobilization that could ignite social tensions in Russian society.[2] Milbloggers have been consistently praising Prigozhin’s success in Ukraine and some even said that he should replace the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, whom milbloggers and Kremlin pundits blame for the Russian defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[3] Russian military correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky) claimed to have spoken to Prigozhin about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border after the withdrawal of Russian forces in the area.[4] The Prigozhin-Fomin meeting, if it occurred, could indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to address milbloggers’ months-long complaints that the Russian Defense Ministry did not hear their criticism highlighting the ineffectiveness of Russian higher command. Prigozhin is Putin’s close confidant, and his developing relationship with milbloggers may help retain milblogger support for the Kremlin’s war effort while scapegoating Shoigu and the Russian Defense Ministry for the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin has changed its information approach to address the demands of the Russian milbloggers and nationalists’, suggesting that Putin seeks to win back the critical milblogger community alienated by Russian failures.[5]

 

Russian forces likely targeted Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in western Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on September 14 to interfere with Ukrainian operations across the Inhulets River. Ukrainian sources reported that eight Russian cruise missiles struck unspecified targets in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and caused extensive flooding in areas of Kryvyi Rih.[6] Russian sources identified the target location as the Karachun Dam, which sits along the Inhulets River on the western outskirts of Kryvyi Rih.[7] Footage of the aftermath of the strike shows a 2.5m increase in the water level of the Inhulets River, which runs south of Kryvyi Rih and is an important geographical feature for the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive along the Kherson-Mykolaiv border.[8] Russian forces likely targeted the Karachun Dam to damage Ukrainian pontoon bridges further downstream, especially in light of recent reports that Ukrainian troops are attempting to expand their bridgehead over the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid as part of the ongoing Kherson counteroffensive.[9]

 

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.
• Russian forces likely targeted Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in order to interfere with Ukraine’s ability to operate across the Inhulets River
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv Oblast continues to degrade Russian forces and threaten Russian artillery and air defenses.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks in northern Kherson Oblast, western Kherson Oblast, and northwest of Kherson City but did not report any major gains.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Funding volunteer battalions is likely placing financial strain on Russian cities and oblasts.
• Russian occupation authorities shut off mobile internet in occupied Luhansk Oblast on September 14, likely to preserve Russian operational security and better control the information environment as Russian forces, occupation officials, and collaborators flee newly-liberated Kharkiv Oblast for Russian and Russian-controlled territories.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for 10-12 September 2022:

 

 

[Subzwari1987]

5 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

ISW analysis for 14 September 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Prigozhin gave a recruitment speech on September 14 announcing that Russian prisoners have been participating in the war sin

 

 

 

 

I will never get tired of seeing that big blue section next to Kharkiv. Here’s to seeing more blue appearing on that map

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[CayceG]

8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

 

 

Well now I'm wondering which car hit which.  

[Jason]

17 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Well now I'm wondering which car hit which.  

 

Well, if the collision was with a cop car...

[SaysWho?]

Putin concedes China has 'questions and concerns' over Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine

WWW.CNN.COM

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Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday praised China's "balanced position" on the Ukraine war, though he conceded Beijing had "questions and concerns" over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of their diverging views over the protracted military assault.

 

[PaladinSolo]

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Allegedly four Russian planes downed today. Multiple more over the last few days.

 

The speculation is that because Ukrainian artillery now outranges Russia's, and because Russia lacks any credible cruise missiles at this point, their only option is to perform low-altitude strikes via fighter/bomber.

[Jason]

9 hours ago, CayceG said:

 

 

Hopefully this is an exaggeration and the advisor gave some bad info. 

 

 

 

I generally trust Ollie Carroll.

 

Zelenskyy confirmed a mass grave at Izyum about an hour ago. 

[CayceG]

Again, that could mean it's a makeshift grave because basic services didn't exist and people died in the course of the war. It doesn't have to mean there was another massacre--not until there's more proof of that. 

[CitizenVectron]

Hundreds found in mass burial site after Russians leave Ukraine city

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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Ukrainian officials said they found a mass burial site with 440 bodies, mainly of civilians, in a northeastern city recaptured from Russian forces, calling it proof of war crimes carried out by...

 

Looking grim.

 

Quote

Ukrainian officials said they found a mass burial site with 440 bodies, mainly of civilians, in a northeastern city recaptured from Russian forces, calling it proof of war crimes carried out by the invaders in territory they had occupied for months.

 

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Ukrainian police chief Ihor Klymenko told a news conference all of the bodies recovered so far at the site appeared to be of civilians, although there was information that some soldiers might have been buried there too.

 

 

[CayceG]

Alright, that's enough for me to get on board with this being Bucha 2.0. 

[CitizenVectron]

First China expressing "concerns," now India; Russia doesn't have the confidence of its allies/partners:

 

[mclumber1]

Syria is still siding with Russia though.  It's a coalition of the willing!

[Greatoneshere]

You mean the CSTO isn't coming in to save Russia?  Doesn't include India or China but you get my meaning.

 

 

Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

It also appears to be confirmed that the entire city of Kup'yansk has been liberated (which confirms that Ukraine has at least partially crossed the Oskil river).

EDIT - And also crossed the river SE of Izyum.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 15 September 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk Oblasts. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk oblasts. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground operations southeast of Izyum, near Lyman, and on the east bank of the Oskil River, reportedly compelling Russian forces to withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine and reinforce others.[1] Russian forces in eastern Ukraine will likely struggle to hold their defensive lines if Ukrainian forces continue to push farther east.

 

The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization rather than setting conditions for general mobilization. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to initiate “self-mobilization” and not wait on the Kremlin to declare martial law.[2] Kadyrov claimed that each federal subject must prove its readiness to help Russia by recruiting at least 1,000 servicemen instead of delivering speeches and conducting fruitless public events. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan echoed the need for Russians to volunteer to join the war effort, and several loyalist Russian governors publicly supported Kadyrov’s speech.[3] The Russian-appointed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula in support of Kadyrov’s calls.[4]

 

The defeat around Kharkiv Oblast prompted the Kremlin to announce a Russia-wide recruitment campaign. Kremlin officials and state media had not previously made country-wide recruitment calls but had instead tasked local officials and outlets to generate forces ostensibly on their own initiative. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov vaguely welcomed the creation of the battalions on July 12, while 47 loyalist federal subjects advertised and funded the regional volunteer battalion recruitment campaign.[5] A prominent Russian milblogger and a supporter of general mobilization praised officials such as Kadyrov for taking the recruitment campaign from the ineffective Russian Ministry of Defense; this recruitment revamp is likely to secure more support for the Kremlin among nationalist figures who are increasingly critical of the Russian MoD, even if the drive does not generate large numbers of combat-effective troops.[6]

 

The Kremlin has likely abandoned its efforts to shield select federal subjects from recruitment drives, which may increase social tensions. ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin attempted to shield Moscow City residents from reports of the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninsky Polk” volunteer regiment.[7]  Russian opposition outlet The Insider noted that several groups in the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tyva, and Yakytia (Republic of Sakha) are publicly opposed to the Kremlin's emphasis on recruitment on an ethnic basis.[8] Simonyan’s statement about “self-mobilization” prompted numerous negative comments among Russians calling on Russian oligarchs to pay for and fight in the war.[9]

 

The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states. A Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigation reported on September 14 that the Russian military has already deployed approximately 1500 Russian personnel from Russia’s 201st Military Base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began and plans to deploy 600 more personnel from facilities in Dushanbe and Bokhatar, a southern Tajik city, in the future.[10] RFE/RL additionally reported on September 13 that Russia has likely redeployed approximately 300 Tuvan troops from the Russian Kant Air Base in Kyrgyzstan to fight in Ukraine at varying points since late 2021.[11]

 

The withdrawals from the Central Asian states are noteworthy in the context of border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Tajik and Kyrgyz border guards exchanged fire in three separate incidents on September 14, killing at least two people.[12] The uptick in violence between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which are members of the Russian-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), comes alongside renewed aggression by Azerbaijan against CSTO member state Armenia. Russian forces also withdrew 800 personnel from Armenia early in the war to replenish losses in Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[13]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization, rather than setting conditions for general mobilization.
• The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
• Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinburn Spit (a narrow peninsula in Kherson Oblast).
• Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions on the Eastern Axis.
• The Russian proxy Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

I wonder how much equipment they left at the railyards (one of the largest railyards/hubs in the northeast of Ukraine).

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Two regional wars look to be starting on Russia's central-Asian borders, all between Russia's "allies" (i.e. puppets). But Russia has pulled most of their troops and has no real soft power...so I feel like nations are taking advantage.

 

Also:

 

 

[silentbob]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Two regional wars look to be starting on Russia's central-Asian borders, all between Russia's "allies" (i.e. puppets). But Russia has pulled most of their troops and has no real soft power...so I feel like nations are taking advantage.

 

Also:

 

 

he’s becoming the meme

 

 

[Jwheel86]

Fantastic briefing by the Austrian Army 

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

11 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

 

THE HOLY FATHER HAS AUTHORIZED A NEW CRUSADE AGAINST THE SO-CALLED "ORTHODOX" SCHISMATICS!

 

THE TIME HAS ARRIVED TO TEACH THE FALSE "THIRD ROME" THE SAME LESSON AS WAS GIVEN TO THE EQUALLY AS FALSE "SECOND ROME" IN 1204!

[Uaarkson]

Excellent recap of the recent counter-offensives, if you don’t have the patience to trudge through the last 7 pages of this thread.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 16 September 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The revelations of mass graves of civilians and torture chambers in newly liberated Izyum confirm ISW’s previous assessments that the Bucha atrocities were not isolated war crimes but rather a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied a

 

 

Quote

 

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

The revelations of mass graves of civilians and torture chambers in newly liberated Izyum confirm ISW’s previous assessments that the Bucha atrocities were not isolated war crimes but rather a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied areas. The Ukrainian General Staff published images on September 16 showing a mass burial site in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast and noting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the site contained more than 400 bodies showing signs of torture and brutality.[1] The Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration reported that the number of war crimes victims in Izyum may exceed those of Bucha.[2] The head of Ukraine’s National Police, Ihor Klymenko, stated that Ukrainian officials have found 10 Russian torture chambers in Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Balaklia, and Izyum.[3]  One torture chamber was reportedly located in the Balakliya police department, where “Russians wore masks and tortured civilians with bare electric wires,” according to Andriy Nebytov, the head of the National Police Main Directorate in the Kyiv region.[4]

 

ISW Non-Resident Fellow Nataliya Bugayova had warned in April 2022 that “Bucha is an observable microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians. Similar intentional atrocities are happening throughout Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine.”[5] Ukrainian officials will likely continue to find evidence of Russian war crimes and atrocities as Ukrainian forces liberate occupied areas.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to threaten increased attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure if reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian military positions in Russian Federation territory continue. Putin said that Russia has been “rather restrained in our response” to Ukrainian “terrorist acts [and] attempts to damage our civilian [sic] infrastructure” in a question-and-answer session with reporters following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting on September 16.[6] He continued “more recently, the Russian armed forces have dealt a couple of sensitive blows” that are “warning shots,” and threatened that more serious attacks could follow. Putin did not explicitly refer to the reported Ukrainian strikes on the base of the Russian 3^rd Motorized Rifle Division near Valuyki that occurred on September 16, nor did he make clear which Russian actions he was referring to. But Russian forces have increased attacks on civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine over the past several weeks as Russian media personalities increase explicit calls for such attacks.[7]

 

Putin’s comments are likely in part a response to criticism by Russian milbloggers, who attacked the Kremlin for failing to protect Russian territory and for failing to respond adequately. One milblogger asked if the Kremlin still regards Belgorod Oblast as part of Russia, part of the “special military operation” zone, or part of Ukraine.[8] Another blamed the reported Ukrainian attack on Valuyki on the so-called “regrouping” of Russian forces (referring to the initial language the Russian Ministry of Defense used to describe the rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast) and warned that another “regrouping” could allow Ukrainian forces to attack other critical Russian areas.[9] Putin has increasingly shown a determination to appease the milbloggers and the constituencies they speak to and on behalf of, even at the expense of the uniformed Russian military and the Russian Ministry of Defense.

 

The Ukrainian Resistance Center warned on September 16 that Russian forces are planning to conduct false flag attacks against civilian population in Russian-occupied Ukraine and urged Ukrainians in occupied areas to avoid public places between September 17 and September 20.[10] The Resistance Center suggested that such false flag attacks could be attempts to “divert the attention of the world community from the defeat in Kharkiv and the discovery of Russian war crimes” in liberated areas.

 

Correction: ISW's 9/15/2022 update contained several errors. We mistakenly located the Kinburn Spit in Crimea rather than Kherson Oblast. We reported Ukrainian attacks northwest of Kharkiv City rather than Kherson City. And we reported Ukrainian operations continuing southwest of Izyum, near Lyman, instead of southeast of Izyum. We apologize for these errata, which have been corrected in the 9/15 update text.

 

Key Takeaways

• The discovery of mass graves and torture chambers in liberated Izyum confirm previous ISW assessments that the Bucha atrocities were emblematic of Russian activities in occupied areas rather than an anomaly.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently threatened to expand Russia’s attacks on civilian Ukrainian infrastructure if Ukraine continues reported attacks on military facilities in Russia.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center warned that Russian forces may conduct false flag attacks in occupied areas between September 17 and September 20.
• Ukrainian forces captured all of Kupyansk City on September 16, continuing offensive operations east of the Oskil River.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly shelled targets in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, overnight on September 15-16.
• Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s occupation headquarters in Kherson, likely using HIMARS, and are continuing ground maneuvers in three areas of Kherson Oblast as part of the ongoing southern counteroffensive.
• Russian administrative officials are rallying around Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s call for “self-mobilization” at a local level to provide additional forces to the Russian military.
• Forced Russian mobilization campaigns are likely depleting male populations in parts of the claimed territory of the Russian proxy Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) along the front lines.
• Immediate and coordinated Russian information responses suggest that Ukrainian partisans may not be responsible for the September 16 assassination of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Prosecutor General and his deputy.

 

 

 

 

[PaladinSolo]