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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (13 June 2024) - US and Ukraine sign bilateral security agreement for long-term supply and cooperation


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Despite Russian military incompetence and Ukrainian valor, we should be under no illusions that this (by far) remains the most likely outcome of this phase of the conflict:

 

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WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

The U.S. and its allies are planning for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and fueling a long insurgency against a Russian occupation and whatever puppet regime Moscow installs if the Kremlin establishes military control.

 

The Russian hold on the south appears to be effectively "iron clad" at this point and their forces are assuming a defensive posture in the north and east while awaiting reinforcements and resupply.  This is evident as Russian forces have entered an "operational pause" (probably lasting 24 to 48 hours) according to the Institute for the Study of War:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground

 

Quote

Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up;
Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.

 

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24 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The fact of the matter is that I genuinely do believe the Russians will "brute force" their way through the logistics issues and when they do, the collapse of Ukrainian resistance in the north and east will be relatively swift.

 

Naturally, I WANT to be wrong, but I have to be realistic.

I think that has yet to be seen. You can't brute force through anything if you don't have the capablities to get your shit where it needs to be. And with western weapons and intelligence I think it will be very difficult for them to hold any territory they take especially with a hostile population. 


Its one thing to take territory its another to keep it.

And while the Russian military looks massive on paper, with the corruption and lack of basic maintenance of vehicles I don't think they can just activate the rest of their military. It will take them months to years to get the full brunt of their military operational and in the meantime their troops and equipment are going to get meat grindered and sanctions are going to crush their ability to pay for things. 

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20 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The fact of the matter is that I genuinely do believe the Russians will "brute force" their way through the logistics issues and when they do, the collapse of Ukrainian resistance in the north and east will be relatively swift.

 

Naturally, I WANT to be wrong, but I have to be realistic.

 

This is where I'm at too, but it really feels like Russia is going to have to brute force their way into complete control of every highway along the way to Kyiv, inch by inch, to make it happen.

 

My main question is how many lives get lost before it becomes unpalatable. I'm sure the answer for Putin is all the lives, but even that sounds too crazy for him.

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37 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

I HIGHLY recommend this video and Twitter thread for a comprehensive yet accessible analysis of the shortcomings of the Russian logistics doctrine which have played no small role in giving the Ukrainians at least a fighting chance.

 

 

 

 

I did a double take at this flag:

 

image.png

  • True 1
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13 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I did a double take at this flag:

 

image.png

API.NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC.COM

It was never the official flag of the Confederacy. But the battle flag has since been claimed by white supremacists and mythologized by others as an emblem of a rebellious...
640px-War_flag_of_Novorussia.svg.png
EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

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1 minute ago, outsida said:
API.NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC.COM

It was never the official flag of the Confederacy. But the battle flag has since been claimed by white supremacists and mythologized by others as an emblem of a rebellious Southern heritage.

 

 

So is that actually supposed to be a Confederate battke flag on the Russian truck and they just didn't know to do the stars?

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2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

So is that actually supposed to be a Confederate battke flag on the Russian truck and they just didn't know to do the stars?

No it’s the flag of the separatist in Ukraine but it’s obvious where they took inspiration. 

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18 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

This is where I'm at too, but it really feels like Russia is going to have to brute force their way into complete control of every highway along the way to Kyiv, inch by inch, to make it happen.

 

My main question is how many lives get lost before it becomes unpalatable. I'm sure the answer for Putin is all the lives, but even that sounds too crazy for him.

 

It's not too crazy for Putin but it might be too crazy for ppl around him. 

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