Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, sblfilms said: They aren’t all Democratic, or even close to it. They are majority D though and he will make up lots of ground. The same applies in WI. Right, I'm confident that will be enough. You don't think so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: Right, I'm confident that will be enough. You don't think so? I am not confident in that at all because the estimates of the ratios place the splits at exactly the right point where they could tilt just enough for a Trump hold or just enough for a Biden lead change. Biden will need somewhere on the order of a 4:1 ratio in those PA and WI mail in ballots outstanding to win those states. That is possible, but there is no data to back feeling confident that it will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, sblfilms said: I am not confident in that at all because the estimates of the ratios place the splits at exactly the right point where they could tilt just enough for a Trump hold or just enough for a Biden lead change. Biden will need somewhere on the order of a 4:1 ratio in those PA and WI mail in ballots outstanding to win those states. That is possible, but there is no data to back feeling confident that it will happen. Well, I dunno, following the news, I am confident in that ratio. I guess we'll see. But you are right it's no guarantee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, sblfilms said: She is holding steady right around 50%. If she can avoid the instant runoff, she wins in the first round. If she doesn’t stay at 50%+, the second place candidate needs to be the 2nd choice of the 3rd place candidate on nearly every ballot for her to over take Collins. Oh fuck, someone just kick her into a lobster pit already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Can we also just take a moment to el oh fucking el at Montana legalizing marijuana before New York? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rc0101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Not suspicious at all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, rc0101 said: So, as I've been saying, 2 million votes left uncounted for PA. 1/4 Trump votes and 3/4 Biden votes. Will be tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 With Kelly winning in Arizona, McSally has officially flipped both AZ Senate seats blue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: So, as I've been saying, 2 million votes left uncounted for PA. 1/4 Trump votes and 3/4 Biden votes. Will be tight. That’s not what the tweet is saying. 1/4 is in counties that Trump will win, but he will win those by 80/20. Biden will win the counties with the other 3/4 but it’s expected to be closer to 70/30 in those counties. That means Trump is expected to win closer to 42% of the balance, not 25%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 All right, I don't want to repeat staying up all night like I did last time. Time for bed for me. I'm hoping for the best, friends. Stay safe in these coming days. America deserves better. I hope it gets better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, sblfilms said: That’s not what the tweet is saying. 1/4 is in counties that Trump will win, but he will win those by 80/20. Biden will win the counties with the other 3/4 but it’s expected to be closer to 70/30 in those counties. That means Trump is expected to win closer to 42% of the balance, not 25%. Yes, this is more accurate. But I think it's positive for Biden. But also dangerous no doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rc0101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Michigan seems possible. Not sure I’d count on PA or WI though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Here is a quick bit a math that makes WI a tough one to come back in for Biden. He needs to match the HRC spread there to even come within striking distance and he hasn’t been doing that generally in the state so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, rc0101 said: Not impossible, but each time a dump happens and he doesn’t go 60/40 the hill becomes a little steeper. Basically the same thing that happened with Trump in AZ as the night progressed. He was initially getting the right ratio u til he all of the sudden wasn’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rc0101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Yeah I don’t see how Biden makes all of these up. Well off to bed for real this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 And yet, I'm telling you guys, he's going to win some variation of the three. Watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 After throwing some spreadsheets together and bouncing through the numbers, I’m feeling sad and more confident that Trump loses GA, but sweeps WI/MI/PA. Collins is also very unlikely to even need a runoff, she’s gonna win first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, sblfilms said: After throwing some spreadsheets together and bouncing through the numbers, I’m feeling sad and more confident that Trump loses GA, but sweeps WI/MI/PA. Collins is also very unlikely to even need a runoff, she’s gonna win first round. Collins is gonna lose due to the runoff, I think. Man, I'm not great with numbers so . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DPCyric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, rc0101 said: Yeah I don’t see how Biden makes all of these up. Well off to bed for real this time. Fortunately he doesn't have to make all of them up just a couple! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Greatoneshere said: And yet, I'm telling you guys, he's going to win some variation of the three. Watch. Pretty much guaranteed to not take the Senate though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jason said: Pretty much guaranteed to not take the Senate though. I never thought we were getting it in the first place. Getting close is good enough. This is like 2018. We didn't get all the upsets we expected, but this is going our way, particularly at the local and state levels. I'm not sure what expectations you guys had, but this is going well for what I had in mind. This is very similar to 2018 to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Greatoneshere said: I never thought we were getting it in the first place. Getting close is good enough. This is like 2018. We didn't get all the upsets we expected, but this is goign our way, particularly at the local and state levels. I'm not sure what expectations you guys had, but this is going well for what I had in mind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: Collins is gonna lose due to the runoff, I think. Man, I'm not great with numbers so . . . I think she is going to stay slightly above 50% so there will be no runoff. Even if it does, it’s an RCV instant runoff and the second place finisher would need to pick up basically every single vote from the third place finisher to over take. Odds heavily on Collins holding. I also think James in Michigan is going to be a pick up for the GOP in the Senate, which probably leaves the senate 52-48 for the Republicans with 3 pickups for Dems and 2 for the GOP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 The easiest way to think about the state of the race right now is that Trump needs three states to have mail in ballot ratios that resemble what have been coming in already, while Biden needs two states to have mail in ballot ratios 15 points higher in his favor than what have been coming in o far. It would not be a massive surprise at this point if either of those scenarios occurred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 They are saying there will be a briefing from Milwaukee in 35 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 If ever you needed evidence that the Democratic Party is simply an unwieldly, non-viable Frankenstein monster of a political organization, this electoral debacle provided it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Hawaii has been called for Biden! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Pelosi, Schumer, and Tom Perez need to fuck off forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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