~*Official Canada Thread of Good Governance and Unnecessary Apologizing*~

[AbsolutSurgen]

Wealth taxes don't work in a world where Billionaires can change where they live.

[Kal-El814]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Wealth taxes don't work in a world where Billionaires can change where they live.

 

They can all move to the Cayman Islands and then we drop the nukes.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

They can all move to the Cayman Islands and then we drop the nukes.

We don't have any... 

[CitizenVectron]

22 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

We don't have any... 

 

We'll drop Canada Geese.

[dualhunter]

Drop a CANDU reactor on them.

[CitizenVectron]

Lack of strong rival may hurt Canada's Trudeau in election

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an unusual challenge as he prepares to call an early election - without a strong opponent to rail against, the vote may...

 

I think this is very true. Because most people assume Trudeau will win again, they feel free to vote their conscience. Combine that with Singh being the most popular leader in most regions of the country, and it's a recipe for the NDP to increase their vote share by 3-5%. That will pick them up a few seats in Ontario, BC, and probably Alberta, but will also likely tip a bunch to the Conservatives in Ontario.

 

So Trudeau being the obvious winner will actually reduce his chances of winning, since no one likes O'Toole.

 

Having said that, I still don't think the CPC have a chance at winning -- I'm betting on an LPC minority again, but with more NDP seats.

[Captain Pickle]

12 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Lack of strong rival may hurt Canada's Trudeau in election

WWW.REUTERS.COM

---

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an unusual challenge as he prepares to call an early election - without a strong opponent to rail against, the vote may...

 

I think this is very true. Because most people assume Trudeau will win again, they feel free to vote their conscience. Combine that with Singh being the most popular leader in most regions of the country, and it's a recipe for the NDP to increase their vote share by 3-5%. That will pick them up a few seats in Ontario, BC, and probably Alberta, but will also likely tip a bunch to the Conservatives in Ontario.

 

So Trudeau being the obvious winner will actually reduce his chances of winning, since no one likes O'Toole.

 

Having said that, I still don't think the CPC have a chance at winning -- I'm betting on an LPC minority again, but with more NDP seats.

You mean my favourite outcome?!?!

[CitizenVectron]

Oh for sure, me too. Do you think the Liberals would have introduced a $2,000 CERB or $10/day universal childcare funding if they had been in a majority position? Some of Canada's best policies have come from Liberal minorities backed by the NDP. Pearson, Trudeau, and Trudeau again, in fairly modern times.

[CitizenVectron]

Also when the election is called, I have a post all ready to go!

[CitizenVectron]

A couple of good polls for the Liberals today:

 

Abacus, which traditionally has had pretty good numbers for the Liberals:

 

Angus Reid, which traditionally has not-as-good numbers for the Liberals:

 

What's interesting is that the Liberals and NDP are basically polling around the same numbers in most polls (35-38 for the former, 19-20 for the latter), but the Conservatives are wildly different, ranging from 25-32 in most polls. If I had to guess, the CPC base will mostly rally, and the end result will be 30-32. The reason I say that is because the reason for the current drop in CPC support seems to be in AB/SK. However, that drop will probably not come to pass in an election, and even if it did, it would not result in many seat losses (maybe a few in Edmonton, and one in SK). So the CPC can get 25% or 30% and their seat count won't change much. That's also their issue, though—they have very inefficient vote concentration in the west.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

15 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Oh for sure, me too. Do you think the Liberals would have introduced a $2,000 CERB or $10/day universal childcare funding if they had been in a majority position? Some of Canada's best policies have come from Liberal minorities backed by the NDP. Pearson, Trudeau, and Trudeau again, in fairly modern times.

In 10-years we will look back aghast at 2020 government spending -- and the economic harm it cost.  Our current level of debt will significantly impact our ability to deliver the social programs we want going forward.

[CitizenVectron]

54 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

In 10-years we will look back aghast at 2020 government spending -- and the economic harm it cost.  Our current level of debt will significantly impact our ability to deliver the social programs we want going forward.

 

Perhaps...but I haven't yet seen a reasonable alternative to the pandemic rescue spending, for us or any other developed, western economy. If we did nothing, then it would have been a worse economic situation down the road. It's also not just about the economy and deficit, there were people's real livelihoods on the line. I've seen arguments that it should have been "more efficient" (which is always said about any government program), but realistically reducing the rescue spending by 10 or 20% wouldn't make much of a difference.

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Perhaps...but I haven't yet seen a reasonable alternative to the pandemic rescue spending, for us or any other developed, western economy. If we did nothing, then it would have been a worse economic situation down the road. It's also not just about the economy and deficit, there were people's real livelihoods on the line. I've seen arguments that it should have been "more efficient" (which is always said about any government program), but realistically reducing the rescue spending by 10 or 20% wouldn't make much of a difference.

Our reaction was much more significant than anyone else's.  

[CitizenVectron]

11 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Our reaction was much more significant than anyone else's.  

 

For sure, but it's in the same general range as the UK and US, it's not on a different scale. If we'd reduced it by 20% and matched the UK, we'd still have a big deficit. Overall, there's nothing we really could have done much different. One could argue (and I would) that our increased spending also allowed better opportunity to control the virus, and resulted in far fewer deaths per capita. 

 

Also does that chart only account for federal/national programs? Because in the US, state-level EI is what paid out a lot, whereas in Canada it's a federally managed system.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

For sure, but it's in the same general range as the UK and US, it's not on a different scale. If we'd reduced it by 20% and matched the UK, we'd still have a big deficit. Overall, there's nothing we really could have done much different. One could argue (and I would) that our increased spending also allowed better opportunity to control the virus, and resulted in far fewer deaths per capita. 

 

Also does that chart only account for federal/national programs? Because in the US, state-level EI is what paid out a lot, whereas in Canada it's a federally managed system.

Our deficit was 35% higher than the previous 12-years combined (which includes the deficit during the great recession).  Reducing the debt by 10%, is roughly equivalent to reducing it by the entire deficit of the previous year.  So yes -- even a 10% reduction would be a big deal.

Our spending in 2020/2021 is staggering.

[CitizenVectron]

Really interesting look at the bias (or lack thereof) of Canada's major polling firms (with two exceptions):

 

Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters - Macleans.ca

WWW.MACLEANS.CA

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Philippe J. Fournier: A detailed look at where the country's top 10 polling firms land when measuring federal polls‚ and which way they tend to skew

 

It's worth it to read the entire article for info on the 10 major polling firms, but the short version is that Angus Reid is pro-Conservative in their polls, and IRG is pro-Liberal. The rest are all pretty close to the average. Good to know in terms of which polls to take into consideration ahead of the election (which will likely be called on Sunday, looks like). It definitely fits in with my general feelings of the polls I've seen. Would be interesting to only include the 8 nearer the centre to see what the averages are. To be fair, www.338canada.com does give less weight to both AR and IRG, for that reason.

 

 

 

Especially discounting AR and IRG (or at least giving them less weight), it does look like the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Interesting data in the most recent Abacus poll:

 

https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

 

Importantly:

 

Quote

While only a minority prefer an election now, the vast majority (83%) won’t be upset at Mr. Trudeau if he asks the Governor General for an early election.

When asked, “If the Prime Minister asks for an election to be held this fall saying he would like to give Canadians a chance to select the government they want to take the country forward, how would you feel about this?” 38% say they would be happy to have a chance to cast a ballot and help choose the government to take us forward, 44% would prefer not to have an election but it isn’t something that would affect how they vote, while 17% say they would be upset at Mr. Trudeau because an election seems unnecessary.

 

There is a lot of media chatter that the public is again an election right now, and that Trudeau is taking a risk if he calls it. But I don't think that's realistic, and these poll results back it up—people aren't going to change their vote based on if someone calls an election, and the people who say it will affect their vote are already overwhelmingly voting for other parties.

[silentbob]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Interesting data in the most recent Abacus poll:

 

https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

 

Importantly:

 

 

There is a lot of media chatter that the public is again an election right now, and that Trudeau is taking a risk if he calls it. But I don't think that's realistic, and these poll results back it up—people aren't going to change their vote based on if someone calls an election, and the people who say it will affect their vote are already overwhelmingly voting for other parties.

We got 3 calls alone this morning from our local PC party person seeing if they could count on our vote if an election we’re called. Mom got all the calls and said on the 3rd that if they had anyone else listed for our household to call (which there shouldn’t) that they could stop wasting their time because we’re all NO. 

[CitizenVectron]

CPC HQ firing on all cylinders

 

 

[Brick]

I had a letter in the mail from O'Toole the other day. Not even sure why I got it when I've never voted Conservative. I skimmed it for like three seconds and threw it in the trash. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Our idiot PM announces an election during a new wave.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Our idiot PM announces an election during a new wave.

 

u mad

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

 

he mad too 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

he mad too 

 

Him too.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

 

 

FYI, Forum isn't a serious pollster:

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

FYI, Forum isn't a serious pollster:

 

 

How accurate are Canadian polls? - Macleans.ca

Quote

The best final polls were conducted by Forum, Mainstreet, Nanos and Ipsos, all within a two-point radius (Liberal and Conservative numbers only). Both Léger and Innovative also did very well with similar numbers just outside of the two-point radius.

....

But the enigma remains Forum Research. Its recent federal numbers are completely off the chart compared to other firms, yet in recent elections the very last Forum poll often hit the mark accurately.

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

How accurate are Canadian polls? - Macleans.ca

 

Right. They were ridiculously off the mark for the entire campaign, and then tightened up right at the end. There are a few pollsters who do this, "reverting to the mean" right at the end. Usually this is because they have wacky methods of assigning undecided voters (and this pool shrinks at the end of a campaign).

 

I'm not saying their current poll isn't possible, it is! But it's so far off the other pollsters, it should be considered an outlier (just like IRG seeing the Liberals almost at 40%).

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

Right. They were ridiculously off the mark for the entire campaign, and then tightened up right at the end. There are a few pollsters who do this, "reverting to the mean" right at the end. Usually this is because they have wacky methods of assigning undecided voters (and this pool shrinks at the end of a campaign).

 

I'm not saying their current poll isn't possible, it is! But it's so far off the other pollsters, it should be considered an outlier (just like IRG seeing the Liberals almost at 40%).

I think you believe that polls, in general, are more representative of final election results than I do.

IMHO, at best they are directionally accurate.

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, AbsolutSurgen said:

I think you believe that polls, in general, are more representative of final election results than I do.

IMHO, at best they are directionally accurate.

 

For sure. I also think the top-number federal voter indication is almost pointless to report—it's the provincial numbers that matter far more. It's why in 2019 when the polls had the LPC and CPC neck-and-neck you saw the media asking "could Scheer defeat Trudeau?" when anyone who knew anything saw that the provincial numbers showed it was almost impossible. The CPC is too strong in AB/SK, and this inflates their national numbers. As long as the LPC remains dominant in Ontario (and competitive in Quebec with the Bloc), then there is very little chance of the CPC getting more seats. It's actually possible for the LPC to lose the national popular vote by something like 2-3% and still almost win a majority with the current vote efficiency they have in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and possibly BC. 

 

I don't expect them to get a majority, but I think the Liberals will likely win the election, even if they only pull 32-33% of the vote (nationally).

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

For sure. I also think the top-number federal voter indication is almost pointless to report—it's the provincial numbers that matter far more. It's why in 2019 when the polls had the LPC and CPC neck-and-neck you saw the media asking "could Scheer defeat Trudeau?" when anyone who knew anything saw that the provincial numbers showed it was almost impossible. The CPC is too strong in AB/SK, and this inflates their national numbers. As long as the LPC remains dominant in Ontario (and competitive in Quebec with the Bloc), then there is very little chance of the CPC getting more seats. It's actually possible for the LPC to lose the national popular vote by something like 2-3% and still almost win a majority with the current vote efficiency they have in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and possibly BC. 

To accurately forecast what is going to happen in an election, they probably need to get more granular than that.  Ontario isn't a homogeneous glob.

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

I don't expect them to get a majority, but I think the Liberals will likely win the election, even if they only pull 32-33% of the vote (nationally).

I'm not sure what will happen -- big swings can happen during an election campaign.  I believe Trudeau has seriously underestimated the popularity of Jagmeet Singh outside of Quebec -- which makes me doubt the potential of a majority government.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

To accurately forecast what is going to happen in an election, they probably need to get more granular than that.  Ontario isn't a homogeneous glob.

I'm not sure what will happen -- big swings can happen during an election campaign.  I believe Trudeau has seriously underestimated the popularity of Jagmeet Singh outside of Quebec -- which makes me doubt the potential of a majority government.

 

Yeah I'm thinking LPC minority is the likely outcome, with the NDP up 5-10 seats, and the Liberals around where they are (+/- 5), and the CPC losing 5-10. Wildcards are Bloc and PPC support. The Bloc moving up or down by 2-3% can swing a bunch of LPC seats, and the PPC being up around 5-6% support could swing a few CPC seats, especially in urban centres in the west.

[CitizenVectron]

Huge upset in Nova Scotia's election tonight, with the Liberals falling to the PCs. The election was interesting, and the Liberals made some big mistakes. The leader admitted to having previous DUIs during the campaign, and the party got in trouble for removing a candidate from a nomination because she had boudoir photos online. They got massive backlash for that. In addition, the PCs (who made a big deal about being Progressive Conservatives, not Conservatives) campaigned heavily on big increases to spending, especially in healthcare. Basically, the campaign really, really mattered. Sometimes campaigns don't matter, but it did this time. 

 

Unfortunately, it looks like Halifax didn't elect a single PC, and it's not good news for cities when the government is elected entirely by rural seats (as city issues then get overlooked). However, having said that, it sounds like the previous NS government also ignored rural areas, hence the blue wave. I agree with most political followers that you can't use this election to read into the federal one (since it was decided mostly in local issues, the primary one being healthcare spending), but one thing that can be read into is that campaigns can shift the rhetoric, so all leaders need to be careful.

[AbsolutSurgen]

10 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Huge upset in Nova Scotia's election tonight, with the Liberals falling to the PCs. The election was interesting, and the Liberals made some big mistakes. The leader admitted to having previous DUIs during the campaign, and the party got in trouble for removing a candidate from a nomination because she had boudoir photos online. They got massive backlash for that. In addition, the PCs (who made a big deal about being Progressive Conservatives, not Conservatives) campaigned heavily on big increases to spending, especially in healthcare. Basically, the campaign really, really mattered. Sometimes campaigns don't matter, but it did this time. 

 

Unfortunately, it looks like Halifax didn't elect a single PC, and it's not good news for cities when the government is elected entirely by rural seats (as city issues then get overlooked). However, having said that, it sounds like the previous NS government also ignored rural areas, hence the blue wave. I agree with most political followers that you can't use this election to read into the federal one (since it was decided mostly in local issues, the primary one being healthcare spending), but one thing that can be read into is that campaigns can shift the rhetoric, so all leaders need to be careful.

There were several PCs elected in the Halifax Regional Municipality.  In a similar way, the City of Toronto elects relatively few conservatives, but the surrounding suburbs frequently do.  TBH, it looks like the NDP did just as well in Halifax proper as the Liberals did.