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~*Official Canada Thread of Good Governance and Unnecessary Apologizing*~

Commissar SFLUFAN
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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

There were several PCs elected in the Halifax Regional Municipality.  In a similar way, the City of Toronto elects relatively few conservatives, but the surrounding suburbs frequently do.  TBH, it looks like the NDP did just as well in Halifax proper as the Liberals did.

 

The NDP rise was a real story, for sure. And actually, as the mail-in ballots came in overnight, the popular vote lead shrank quite a bit for the PCs. Count as of now:

 

PC - 38.95%

LP - 36.75

NDP - 21.12%

 

So the PCs will end up with almost 2x the seats as the Liberals with only around 2.2% more of the vote. I heard someone say this morning that it might be the most efficient majority in Canadian history, in terms of what the PCs pulled off. Obviously can't draw direct comparisons to the federal election since there were so many unique, local factors, but Erin O'Toole should be paying attention to the very, very important rule of Canadian politics: The CPC can only win an election if the LPC are low and the NDP are high. Otherwise, it's almost impossible (especially with so much of the CPC base concentrated in Alberta).

 

It was something that Harper did very well—cast the NDP as a credible alternative to the LPC. So far, O'Toole has done the opposite (saying the election is between him and Trudeau). He would be smart to pump up Singh. And, in fact, some polls from yesterday are starting to show a bump for the NDP. If Singh can capture 22 or 23% of the popular vote, that likely reduces the LPC to around 32-33%. Then it's up to O'Toole to motivate his base and try and get 35% or higher. That's a real issue, of course, since O'Toole is not popular with the CPC base.

 

Basically, so many things need to go right for O'Toole to become PM...I just don't see it happening. But there are steps he could take to improve his chances (like supporting vaccine passports of some kind, pumping up Singh as a credible PM, etc), but he just doesn't seem to be doing them.

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

The NDP rise was a real story, for sure. And actually, as the mail-in ballots came in overnight, the popular vote lead shrank quite a bit for the PCs. Count as of now:

 

PC - 38.95%

LP - 36.75

NDP - 21.12%

 

So the PCs will end up with almost 2x the seats as the Liberals with only around 2.2% more of the vote. I heard someone say this morning that it might be the most efficient majority in Canadian history, in terms of what the PCs pulled off. Obviously can't draw direct comparisons to the federal election since there were so many unique, local factors, but Erin O'Toole should be paying attention to the very, very important rule of Canadian politics: The CPC can only win an election if the LPC are low and the NDP are high. Otherwise, it's almost impossible (especially with so much of the CPC base concentrated in Alberta).

 

It was something that Harper did very well—cast the NDP as a credible alternative to the LPC. So far, O'Toole has done the opposite (saying the election is between him and Trudeau). He would be smart to pump up Singh. And, in fact, some polls from yesterday are starting to show a bump for the NDP. If Singh can capture 22 or 23% of the popular vote, that likely reduces the LPC to around 32-33%. Then it's up to O'Toole to motivate his base and try and get 35% or higher. That's a real issue, of course, since O'Toole is not popular with the CPC base.

 

Basically, so many things need to go right for O'Toole to become PM...I just don't see it happening. But there are steps he could take to improve his chances (like supporting vaccine passports of some kind, pumping up Singh as a credible PM, etc), but he just doesn't seem to be doing them.

The fundamental problem for the CPC is the social conservatism that has been highlighted within the party under Andrew Scheer, and to a lesser extent Erin O'Toole.

 

They won't form a government until they move back to the centre.  Doug Ford may be a doofus, but he isn't socially conservative -- and won the Ontario election.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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13 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The fundamental problem for the CPC is the social conservatism that has been highlighted within the party under Andrew Scheer, and to a lesser extent Erin O'Toole.

 

They won't form a government until they move back to the centre.  Doug Ford may be a doofus, but he isn't socially conservative -- and won the Ontario election.

 

For sure. I'm curious on your opinion of Ford right now (re: his next moves). It's open knowledge now that he and Trudeau have a non-aggression pact in place for the federal election. He also is now mandating vaccination for different professions (including his own caucus), and is still imposing restrictions when other provinces have stopped. I get the stroooong impression that he smells blood in the CPC water, and wants O'Toole to lose so that he can run to replace him as federal leader. I'm curious as to your thoughts on that. 

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

For sure. I'm curious on your opinion of Ford right now (re: his next moves). It's open knowledge now that he and Trudeau have a non-aggression pact in place for the federal election. He also is now mandating vaccination for different professions (including his own caucus), and is still imposing restrictions when other provinces have stopped. I get the stroooong impression that he smells blood in the CPC water, and wants O'Toole to lose so that he can run to replace him as federal leader. I'm curious as to your thoughts on that. 

I'm not sure.  He is dramatically less popular that he was a year ago -- but still relatively popular for a politician in a multi-party system.

IMHO, he is imposing restrictions because the polls tell him to.  And, I think he has decided to follow the advice of the health bureaucrats -- and point at them -- rather than go out on a limb and make his own decisions.

 

But, I suspect that you are right, and he would probably run for the federal party leadership when O'Toole loses the next election.  TBH, I really don't want him as a PM -- but he is probably more electable than the social-conservatives like Scheer/O'Toole.  IMHO -- I don't view him as an upgrade from Trudeau.

 

My preference would be to get someone with strong leadership characteristics (like Jagmeet Singh) in one of the centrist parties to win the next election in 2-5 years.  My best hope for that is a Liberal minority and a less prominent candidate winning the CPC leadership race.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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45 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I'm not sure.  He is dramatically less popular that he was a year ago -- but still relatively popular for a politician in a multi-party system.

IMHO, he is imposing restrictions because the polls tell him to.  And, I think he has decided to follow the advice of the health bureaucrats -- and point at them -- rather than go out on a limb and make his own decisions.

 

But, I suspect that you are right, and he would probably run for the federal party leadership when O'Toole loses the next election.  TBH, I really don't want him as a PM -- but he is probably more electable than the social-conservatives like Scheer/O'Toole.  IMHO -- I don't view him as an upgrade from Trudeau.

 

My preference would be to get someone with strong leadership characteristics (like Jagmeet Singh) in one of the centrist parties to win the next election in 2-5 years.  My best hope for that is a Liberal minority and a less prominent candidate winning the CPC leadership race.

 

I really, really hope that Pierre Poilievre doesn't become the next leader. He's just insufferable, and a horrible person. I'm not sure if the CPC has any strong centrist (or at least, non-social conservative) contenders for leadership in the near future. Their base has kind of taken over the party in the Harper and post-Harper years, and it seems like the Liberals have scooped up the progressive end of the former PCs (at least federally). 

 

What will be interesting is what happens if Trudeau wins another minority, especially if it's weaker than the current one. Does the party put pressure on him to leave? If the minority grows (or stays about the same) I think he can survive, it sounds like he has a pretty strong hold on the party at the moment. Freeland is an obvious contender to replace him, as well as a few others. Maybe Carney steps in...though it would be a mistake to accept him. If he's not willing to run and be a regular MP first, then he doesn't deserve to just try and jump in as PM.

 

I think as long as Singh improves the NDP's seat count then he is safe for another Parliament (which I think is likely).

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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22 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I really, really hope that Pierre Poilievre doesn't become the next leader. He's just insufferable, and a horrible person. I'm not sure if the CPC has any strong centrist (or at least, non-social conservative) contenders for leadership in the near future. Their base has kind of taken over the party in the Harper and post-Harper years, and it seems like the Liberals have scooped up the progressive end of the former PCs (at least federally). 

 

What will be interesting is what happens if Trudeau wins another minority, especially if it's weaker than the current one. Does the party put pressure on him to leave? If the minority grows (or stays about the same) I think he can survive, it sounds like he has a pretty strong hold on the party at the moment. Freeland is an obvious contender to replace him, as well as a few others. Maybe Carney steps in...though it would be a mistake to accept him. If he's not willing to run and be a regular MP first, then he doesn't deserve to just try and jump in as PM.

 

I think as long as Singh improves the NDP's seat count then he is safe for another Parliament (which I think is likely).

I wasn't living in Canada during the Harper years -- so, I am less familiar with Poilievre.  But, I am not really attracted to him.  When Erin O'Toole fails, I think the party infrastructure will reverse the damage Erin has done.  Trudeau was ripe for the pickings.

 

Trudeau?  Unless things change, I think he is pretty safe.  TBH though, Carney intrigues me.

 

I think Singh is safe for the foreseeable future.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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Good visual representation of how Canada voted:

 

 

 

I also saw an interesting breakdown of the vote by density. Basically, it was something like:

 

Urban

Suburban

Exurban

Rural

Remote

 

Urban + suburban was absolutely dominated by the Liberals, and Rural and Remote were dominated by the Conservatives (with the Bloc also taking many in QC). Exurban was an equal split. Both of these patterns have been amplifying over the last 20 years. Effectively, the suburbs are becoming more liberal (and Liberal). This poses a problem for the CPC as urban + suburban ridings are going to get a big boost in the next riding allocation from this census. When it's all accounted for, the Urban+Suburban ridings will get something like a +10 gain over the other three categories, giving the Liberals and even greater electoral advantage.

 

tl;dr: the CPC needs to stick to its centrist message with O'Toole (or someone like him, if a bit more charismatic) and have a 2-3 election strategy to compete in the suburban ridings. If they go further right, they stand to continue to be locked out of the suburbs. While the "Ontario" vote was closer this election, the Liberals made gains in the suburban vote (and ridings).

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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38 minutes ago, chakoo said:

May will probably be put back in charge as interim but there was a few names being thrown around to take over the greens before the election. Also during the vote count Mike Morrice was brought up as someone to be considered because of him winning his riding.

 

Biggest issue for Greens now is that in public polling of Canada, the Liberals are the ones most believed to own the environmental issue (due to carbon levy). The Liberals of course aren't doing enough (no party is, in their proposals).

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

How the polls did in the 2021 election - by Éric Grenier - The Writ

WWW.THEWRIT.CA
Pollsters were close to the mark, again

 

Really interesting article on the results. tl;dr:

 

  • Leger was the best, for the second election in a row
  • IVR pollsters all did poorly, though mainly in their support models for CPC and PPC
    • Over-estimated PPC support at the expense of CPC
  • Overall, Canadian pollsters did pretty well in terms of national numbers

And even though Mainstreet did not-so-great in terms of the final national numbers, they did do great in terms of their seat forecast (as they used their own polling plus previous election history for the ridings, etc).

 

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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If you create a new holiday to deal with the reconciliation between non-indigenous peoples and indigenous peoples?

Do you:

1) Engage with indigenous people to demonstrate your commitment to progress?

2) Demonstrate that you were only virtue signaling by going on vacation with your family. 

Completely predictable. 
And from the mouthpiece of the Liberal party of Canada:

truth-and-reconciliation-day-2021-justin

Trudeau flew to Tofino, B.C., with family on 1st National Day for Truth and Reconciliation | CBC News

WWW.CBC.CA
Though Justin Trudeau's itinerary for Thursday initially stated he was in "private meetings" in Ottawa, it was later updated to note he was in Tofino, B.C.

 

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Jason

Jason

Posted
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1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If you create a new holiday to deal with the reconciliation between non-indigenous peoples and indigenous peoples?

Do you:

1) Engage with indigenous people to demonstrate your commitment to progress?

2) Demonstrate that you were only virtue signaling by going on vacation with your family. 

Completely predictable. 
And from the mouthpiece of the Liberal party of Canada:

truth-and-reconciliation-day-2021-justin

Trudeau flew to Tofino, B.C., with family on 1st National Day for Truth and Reconciliation | CBC News

WWW.CBC.CA
Though Justin Trudeau's itinerary for Thursday initially stated he was in "private meetings" in Ottawa, it was later updated to note he was in Tofino, B.C.

 

 

Where did Troodoh touch you. 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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12 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

This is all very well and good, buuuuuuut I'm gonna have to throw some realism on here:  Canada shouldn't even really bother having a "foreign policy" simply because it doesn't have the power to project one.

 

And quite honestly, what's his alternative solution?  Remain in Afghanistan for another 20 years and keep throwing good money and lives in pursuit of a completely intangible, unattainable goal?

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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I read that he did spend much of the day on phone calls/video calls with people about it (so wasn't just "at the beach" as conservative media is portraying), but it's still a big blunder to not do at least one event in person.

 

Also, I don't give a fuck if Scott Moe put on an orange t-shirt for 30 seconds for a picture when he used the courts to evict a pro-Indigenous sit in at the provincial capital, refusing to meet with them (about Indigenous suicide rates in SK). Moe and his government are hostile to Indigenous people and their issues. 

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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Yeah.  It's all about the conservative media. 

placeholder-media.jpg
Quote

OTTAWA – It was with shock and dismay that The Native Women’s Association of Canada (NWAC) learned that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chose to take a vacation day rather than mark the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation which his government declared less than two months ago.

 

This is a Prime Minister who came into office saying no relationship is more important to his government than its relationship with the Indigenous people of this country.

 

“Those words ring incredibly hollow when Mr. Trudeau could not take the time that his own government set aside to reflect upon the tragedy of the Indian residential schools and instead chose to flit off to Tofino for a holiday,” said Lynne Groulx, the CEO of NWAC. “The government of Canada has received two separate reports, including that of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, that say a genocide has been perpetrated against the Indigenous people of this country. Yet Mr. Trudeau does not believe those findings are so significant enough that he should take the time to reflect upon their meaning,”

 

While millions of people across Canada donned orange shirts, spoke out on social media, took part in special ceremonies, and reflected on the dark history of Canada’s treatment of Indigenous people and what needs to be improved going forward, The Prime Minister was enjoying his down time, said Ms. Groulx, “It is almost as if he checked off one of the Calls to Action of the TRC by declaring the statutory holiday, and then wiped his hands and said ‘job done, let’s move on,’” she said.

 

It is no coincidence, said Ms. Groulx, that Mr. Trudeau opted to stay out of the public eye on the day after the Federal Court upheld the compensation awarded by the Canadian Human Rights Tribunal to First Nations children who had been apprehended under the First Nations child and family service program, and to their families.

 

“His government’s continual attempts to appeal that order have been nothing less than shameful, and I can understand his reluctance to answer questions about those legal actions when there is simply no moral explanation available to him,” said Ms. Groulx. “But the decision to duck out entirely on the National Day of Truth and Reconciliation is astounding for its sheer level of callousness and disregard for what the First Nations, Métis and Inuit people have endured as a result of colonization.”

 

Romeo Saganash, the former New Democrat MP, once said that Mr. Trudeau does not “Give an f*” about Indigenous rights. “If we need any more proof of that observation,” said Ms. Groulx, “we need only to look at his actions of September 30, 2021.”

How many times has Trudeau skipped Remembrance Day?

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