|||| Canadian Election 🍁 Sorry |||| Liberals win plurality, stay in power.

[CitizenVectron]

I think what they have effectively done is build up their backbench with right-wing social conservatives, but maintain their public moderate-right policy. But I have no doubt that if Scheer obtained a majority he would begin eroding conventions like Harper did (and Trudeau, to be fair). Scheer himself is a right-wing regressive conservative, but hides it well. He still refuses for trying to stop same sex marriage, and for comparing gay people to body parts of dogs in his arguments against it. He's a slimeball. It is true that he is left-wing of the GOP by probably all measures, but I don't think he's to the left of the Democrats on everything anymore.

[SilentWorld]

26 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The conservatives aren’t far right. In many ways they are further left than the US Democratic Party. 

[CitizenVectron]

It's also worth pointing out that while on some issues the CPC here might be further left than the Democrats (for example, the CPC officially is in full support of universal healthcare), they still support eroding that and moving to the right (introducing slow privatization in many areas, as shown in AB and ON, and even SK), while the Democrats are moving to the left.

 

Canadian conservatives are tacitly in favour of certain things because they know the electorate is in favour of them...but when in power they've been shown to try and chip away at them.

[AbsolutSurgen]

The Conservative party platform is further left of the Democrats on everything to healthcare, education, taxation, social safety net (EI, welfare), right to work, gun control, defence spending, etc. You know, a lot of the stuff that government actually DOES.

 

There has been much said about Andrew Scheer's 2005 speech....  But it wasn't all that different from many Democrats of the time:

 

Andrew Scheer is more socially conservative than I prefer (which is why I probably won't vote Conservative in this election), as are many of the backbenchers from the rural prairies, but if the Conservatives do make progress in the 905, that should moderate coming out of this election.

 

IMHO, there is this false narrative among many Canadians I meet, that somehow tries to equate the Conservative party to the US Republican party, and Liberals to the Democratic party.  The two American parties are fundamentally different (right now) on their ideologies, and how they see the world.  IMHO, the Liberal and Conservative parties are much more alike than they are different.

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

It's also worth pointing out that while on some issues the CPC here might be further left than the Democrats (for example, the CPC officially is in full support of universal healthcare), they still support eroding that and moving to the right (introducing slow privatization in many areas, as shown in AB and ON, and even SK), while the Democrats are moving to the left.

 

Canadian conservatives are tacitly in favour of certain things because they know the electorate is in favour of them...but when in power they've been shown to try and chip away at them.

You could argue that many of the socially liberal changes that have come about in the last few years have been more driven by the Supreme Court, rather than the legislative branch, but that's a different discussion.  What are examples of the Conservatives chipping away at "certain things"?

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The Conservative party platform is further left of the Democrats on everything to healthcare, education, taxation, social safety net (EI, welfare), right to work, gun control, defence spending, etc. You know, a lot of the stuff that government actually DOES.

 

There has been much said about Andrew Scheer's 2005 speech....  But it wasn't all that different from many Democrats of the time:

 

Andrew Scheer is more socially conservative than I prefer (which is why I probably won't vote Conservative in this election), as are many of the backbenchers from the rural prairies, but if the Conservatives do make progress in the 905, that should moderate coming out of this election.

 

IMHO, there is this false narrative among many Canadians I meet, that somehow tries to equate the Conservative party to the US Republican party, and Liberals to the Democratic party.  The two American parties are fundamentally different (right now) on their ideologies, and how they see the world.  IMHO, the Liberal and Conservative parties are much more alike than they are different.

You could argue that many of the socially liberal changes that have come about in the last few years have been more driven by the Supreme Court, rather than the legislative branch, but that's a different discussion.  What are examples of the Conservatives chipping away at "certain things"?

 

A good recent example is public education, which is being attacked in Ontario and AB. And I agree that our two main parties are a lot closer than the two American parties. As to Scheer and his old speeches, the main difference is that he has never apologized, and still refuses to admit he was wrong...which is a tacit admission that he still holds the same views.

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

As to Scheer and his old speeches, the main difference is that he has never apologized, and still refuses to admit he was wrong...which is a tacit admission that he still holds the same views.

 

Maybe people are all realizing that apologizing is a losing strategy for public figures.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Which party would have the clout in a minority Parliament?

Quote

Advantage: Bloc

Based on the latest polling, the Liberals would — if an election were held today — end up with 160 seats, 10 short of a bare majority. The Greens, with four seats, would be unable to offer a Liberal government a sufficient number of votes.

The New Democrats, with 16 seats, would be able to put the Liberals over the top. But so would the Bloc Québécois, currently projected to win 17 seats.

Indeed, while the Greens and New Democrats have been battling for position in British Columbia and Ontario, the BQ has quietly put itself in a position where it could have real influence in the next Parliament.

Singh and May are no doubt free to stake out their negotiating positions now. But they might not even get invited to the table.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

905 has a significant amount of non-white constituents -- I wonder if Trudeau is being hit particularly hard here due to the brown/blackface scandal?

[silentbob]

Being from the 905 area code I will say I’m still seeing more Liberal signs over the other parties in my city. I will admit my area is still a good portion white but with a growing middle eastern population moving in. I still think, even with the polling, the Liberals are still pretty safe in the 905. I think Doug Ford has created enough of a bitter taste for his party with voters that people will vote Liberal(or other) I know Provincial Vs National Politics, but people have been pissed off by his parties cuts and more were just announced. So if his party is doing this provincially, imagine if they got control of the country. Partly a reason why I already voted for my Liberal candidate in early voting, but the main reason why my mom(65) voted Liberal. Also because she wouldn’t be able to get out and vote cause she is getting a right knee replacement on Thursday

[AbsolutSurgen]

I am also in 905, and my riding has swung back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives for the past few decades. (And voted heavily Conservative in the 2018 provincial election.)

Demographics of my riding:

Ethnic groups: 40.2% White, 23.5% South Asian, 9.9% Chinese, 6.5% Black, 5.1% Filipino, 4.9% Arab, 1.9% Latin American, 1.6% Southeast Asian, 1.5% Korean, 1.3% West Asian

I am seeing an equal amount of Conservative/Liberal signs (TBH, there are very few signs out ATM).  I don't get the sense that the Liberals are safe in my riding.

[AbsolutSurgen]

What's the difference between the Conservative and Liberal platforms? The colour: Robyn Urback

Quote

Beyond that, the Liberal and Conservative platforms are virtually interchangeable; they hardly lay out the framework for dramatically different Canadas. Your choice is between tax cuts or tax cuts, a weak or weaker climate plan, interest-free loans or tax credits, and maybe drug coverage, depending on the details, if this promise doesn't go the way of electoral reform. 

 

Quote

It's a crummy way to decide an election, but perhaps the only way when the biggest difference between the platforms is their colours. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

No way the Bloc gets chosen over the NDP as a coalition partner. 

 

For the 905 polling, the margin of error is huge, and another pollster has said on Twitter that they are seeing dominant Liberal numbers there (+15), so it makes me question how accurate the original one was.

[AbsolutSurgen]

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

No way the Bloc gets chosen over the NDP as a coalition partner. 

That article did not suggest the Bloc would enter a coalition with the Liberals.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Quote

The projections, released by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) on Thursday, are based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20-24 in the days after images and a video of Justin Trudeau surfaced showing the Liberal leader in blackface.

The data draws on a number of surveys and polls from Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum for an aggregated total of more than 11,000 interviews and attempts to determine how that popular support translates to seats won.

http://maps.lispop.ca/2019_federal_election_projections/

 

My riding is being called "Too Close To Call"

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Liberals have rebounded and are actually up compared to before the brownface photos. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

There is a huge jump for the Green Party (mostly coming from the Liberals) -- since these results are from a rolling three day average, there must have been a TREMENDOUS swing on the day of the climate strike.  It will interesting to see how this trends over the next few days.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Canadians want to stop climate change — but half don’t want to pay an extra cent: Ipsos poll

 

 

Quote

The latest Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News between Sept. 20 and 23, shows Canadians have vastly different views on what should be done to try to mitigate the impacts of climate change, and 46 per cent do not want to spend any additional money in the form of taxes or higher costs of goods.

Just 22 per cent say they would be willing to pay up to $100 extra per year.

That drops to eight per cent who say they would be willing to pay between $101 and $200.

 

Quote

Ipsos also looked at how much all average voters who identify with one of the main parties are willing to pay, and it was voters who identify as Green supporters who were willing to pay the most with an average of $701.

NDP voters on average said they would be willing to pay $375, while Liberal supporters said they would be willing to pay an extra $326.

Bloc Quebecois and Conservative voters had the lowest averages of $254 and $206, respectively.

 

Quote

“Canadians are saying, ‘I don’t think I need to pay more personally, because in Canada, we pay an awful lot of taxes and so as part of that, I expect government to be leading these initiatives in figuring out where the dollars are best spent,'” Simpson added.

 

[chakoo]

Man I don't think the other parties are trying in my riding. The only two people to stop by are a canvasser for the Liberal Party and Elections Canada verifying the number of registered voters at the residence. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

4 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Canadians want to stop climate change — but half don’t want to pay an extra cent: Ipsos poll

 

 

 

 

 

Perfect situation for a carbon tax and refund

[RedSoxFan9]

 

he loves costumes 

[Jason]

30 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said:

 

he loves costumes 

 

I have a lot of rude questions right now

[SilentWorld]

trudeau NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

The Greta effect? Nanos survey suggests young voters turning on Trudeau

Quote

Polling data from Nanos Research shows that the proportion of voters aged 18 to 29 who cite Trudeau as their preferred prime minister fell from nearly 35 per cent to a little more than 24 per cent within 24 hours.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Was this an actual hobby of his?!?

[Brick]

I really don't want to have to vote for this guy in order to keep Sheer out... 

[CitizenVectron]

I'll still take Trudeau over Scheer since Scheer is an actual proven bigot in terms of his voting record (as opposed to Trudeau who is a bigot in private, but implements policies that assist minorities...at least compared to the Conservatives). But I want Trudeau replaced as LPC leader if he wins this election.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Trudeau has also demonstrated his lack of ethics/judgement in his handling of the SNC Lavalin scandal.  I am not aware of anything similar in Scheer's background.

[CitizenVectron]

37 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Trudeau has also demonstrated his lack of ethics/judgement in his handling of the SNC Lavalin scandal.  I am not aware of anything similar in Scheer's background.

 

Agreed. Although it has come out that Scheer has lied for decades about being an insurance broker. So he's not above lying, etc.

[Brick]

I never really got into the whole SNC Lavalin scandal and what it was about. Can somebody break it down into just what exactly that was all about? I should have paid attention, but I just... didn't for some reason. 

[Jason]

3 hours ago, SFLUFAN said:

Was this an actual hobby of his?!?

 

He should run for governor of Virginia! 

[AbsolutSurgen]

16 minutes ago, Brick said:

I never really got into the whole SNC Lavalin scandal and what it was about. Can somebody break it down into just what exactly that was all about? I should have paid attention, but I just... didn't for some reason. 

SNC Lavalin was being investigated by the RCMP for bribing a foreign government (Libya) to gain business -- and it looked like it was going to be a criminal prosecution.  A criminal prosecution would essentially bar them from bidding on future Government of Canada contracts.  (I believe SNC Lavalin is based in Trudeau's riding, but I am not 100% sure.)  The ethics commissioner found that Trudeau had breached the "Conflict of Interest Act" by exerting political direction to the Minister of Justice to end the criminal prosecution.  She refused, and he moved her out of the job.

 

Essentially -- Quebec company illegally bribes foreign government, gets caught, is being prosecuted, Trudeau steps in to end the criminal proceedings and protect jobs in his riding.

[CitizenVectron]

I don't believe it was his riding, it was located in another area of Quebec. But the rest is correct. His argument is that he did what he had to do to protect 5,000 jobs in the province, and apparently the decision (and scandal) has actually made him more popular in Quebec. Kind of like how conservatives in western Canada hate Trudeau for giving subsidies to different industries, but also hate if subsidies to oil companies are removed. It's the good old saying - all politics is local. People like to say they value ideology and ethics, but at the end of the day most people vote for what they perceive to be best for themselves and their local area.

 

I am not defending Trudeau's interference, by the way, I think he should have been removed as leader because of it. So then the question (for me) is: corrupt/idiot leader that supports policies close to what I want, or opposition party that is not (yet proven to be similarly) corrupt, but stands against what I believe in. I choose to support the lesser of two evils, and vote for the corrupt but ideologically-similar leader/party. It's an unfortunate situation that many find themselves in, I think. I have no illusions that Scheer and his government wouldn't be equally as corrupt and self-serving, of course. Harper was, and Scheer is surrounded by all of the same people, but even worse now that more backbenchers are social regressives in that party.

[dualhunter]

From what I can tell looking at a map SNC Lavalin's headquarters is south of Trudeau's riding probably with another riding or two in between but both are on the island of Montreal.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Liberals, Conservatives in close race as Green support drops four points: Ipsos poll

Quote

The poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, shows that 37 per cent of voters surveyed would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow ⁠— a one-point gain since last week.

Almost two weeks after Justin Trudeau’s blackface scandal, the poll indicated that 34 per cent of decided voters would choose the Liberal Party ⁠— up two points from last week ⁠— while the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh remains at 15 per cent of the vote, same as last week.

“It's really become a two-horse race,” said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos. “Consistently, the Conservatives are outpacing the Liberals.”

 

Quote

The poll broke down support for each party by demographics, finding that the Conservatives and the Liberals are doing “equally well with women.”

The Liberals are at 34 per cent among women and among men, while the Conservatives are at 34 per cent among women and at 40 per cent among men.

“What we're actually seeing is that the gender gap is actually hurting the Liberal Party and that's with men,” Bricker said.