|||| Canadian Election 🍁 Sorry |||| Liberals win plurality, stay in power.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

A lot of the polls are contradicting each other -- and I am seeing some of the CEOs being unprofessional online, battling with each other and the partisan twitter trolls.  I think we will know 2 things on Tuesday:

1)  We should understand 99% of the seat numbers 

2)  Which pollsters were right

@CitizenVectron 905 will be a big part of the story, but not necessarily the entire story.  Conservatives will need to do well in 905 -- and even if they do, they need to gain some seats elsewhere as well.

Right now, I think everything is in play.

I still believe a minority plurality is the most likely scenario -- probably for the Liberals.  However, I also think it is very likely that the BQ will have the balance of power (i.e. whomever would like to form the government, will need their votes to pass a confidence motion).

@CitizenVectron -- Do you have any links to party finances (i.e. which parties could afford another election this year?)

 

I agree with everything you said. There may be a few seats that will be too close to call or will need a recount on Tuesday, but if the entire election hinges on those few seats, then the result would be a Liberal government, likely. I think the only way the CPC take power is if they plus the Bloc have a majority, and then still only if the CPC have at least a 10-20 seat advantage over the LPC. Even then, Trudeau may still attempt to get the confidence of the house with tacit support from the Bloc. It could really go either way.

 

I do not have any links to party finances unfortunately. Anecdotally I have heard that all of the parties are basically broke, which is why there hasn't been as much advertising as last election. The NDP have seen their donations go up, but I don't know by how much. It's interesting to see how money has really been reigned in for elections, and the fault/credit goes to both parties! Chretien took out corporate/union donations, which was a great move, and set a low cap on personal donations. He also instituted a public subsidy for campaigns, so that the more votes you received, the more money you would get. It had flaws (overly rewarding the main two parties) but overall was a good thing. Harper then eliminated that vote subsidy, but did not structurally change the limitations on donations. So this means parties are forced to operate with far less money than in the past. Both sides did it because they viewed it as hurting the other side more...and it worked for both, haha.

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Sagging electoral support for Liberal government a 'great surprise' to diplomats

Trudeau acknowledges Tories could win, accuses them of running 'dirtiest' campaign ever

Facing a possible wipeout in Quebec, Singh evokes Jack Layton's legacy

[CitizenVectron]

New Ekos:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Bloc saying they will bring down minority government (if they hold balance of power) that tries to kill carbon tax, or tries to build pipeline through Quebec:

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Deadlocked National Race Obscures Seat Advantage for Liberals

Quote

In fact, the greatest potential circulations are final shifting among promiscuous progressive voters across the three centre-left national parties.

WTF -- some of the pollsters in Canada have completely lose their sense of professionalism.  (i.e. EKOS)

[RedSoxFan9]

 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Deadlocked National Race Obscures Seat Advantage for Liberals

WTF -- some of the pollsters in Canada have completely lose their sense of professionalism.  (i.e. EKOS)

 

A poor choice of words, though I assume he simply meant they are moving around a lot with the different left-wing parties.

[CitizenVectron]

Head of Mainstreet is hinting that yesterday and tonight's polling is hinting at liberal majority. I don't believe it.

[CitizenVectron]

Video of Scheer sitting through the national anthem in Parliament while everyone else stands and sings.

 

I am not actually that angry that he did this in protest...but the reason was incredibly childish (changing the lyrics to be gender-neutral). This doesn't really change my opinion.

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Well of course Scheer says that, but it's not the law. Whoever commends the confidence of the house forms government (or keeps government).

[AbsolutSurgen]

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Well of course Scheer says that, but it's not the law. Whoever commends the confidence of the house forms government (or keeps government).

The BQ may have already told him that they will support him in a confidence motion.  I don't think it is in the political interest of either the BQ or the Conservatives to openly ally with each other -- even if there is a behind the scenes agreement.

Scheer may be setting up the duck if the combined Conservative/BQ seat count is above 170, and the Liberals try and delay a confidence vote.  The GG has the power to dismiss the Liberal Government, and allow the Conservatives to try and gain confidence of the House.

Alternately, he may be preparing for the next election, where he claim that Trudeau and the Liberals acted in an undemocratic way.

He knows the rules,  so what is his motive?

[CitizenVectron]

GG does not have power to remove sitting PM unless the confidence has been tested.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

GG does not have power to remove sitting PM unless the confidence has been tested.

Yes they do -- the GG has special personal authority to dismiss the government under special circumstances (which of course, are not well defined).

If the GG feels that another party has the confidence of parliament, they can dismiss the PM and ask another party to try and form a government, or even call an election on their own authority.  There is no "requirement" for the incumbent PM to fail a confidence vote .  Clearly, this is only likely if the GG perceives that an incumbent government is not behaving appropriately and is avoiding a confidence vote in an undemocratic way.

[CitizenVectron]

Yes they can remove if the incumbent PM refuses to hold a vote for weeks or months. But as long as Trudeau intends to test confidence in a reasonable time, the GG cannot remove,.even if the outcome of that vote seems obvious.

[SilentWorld]

Is there reason to think the BQ would prefer a CPC government? I thought BQ was pro carbon tax. 

[CitizenVectron]

37 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

Is there reason to think the BQ would prefer a CPC government? I thought BQ was pro carbon tax. 

 

I can't see the Bloc support the CPC. The block had said they will bring down any government that tries to kill the carbon tax, and Scheer says that would be his first bill.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Lol that Conan one is pretty good.

 

Polls have been fairly table the last few days:

 

Bloc up in QC

LPC up in Atlantic Canada

LPC up in Ontario

CPC up in BC

 

Looks like LPC minority, but the CPC apparently has done very well in advanced polling, so if turnout is depressed on Monday then the CPC have a real shot. Only poll that matters is the voting booth!

 

[CitizenVectron]

I've been busy the last day, my spouse suffered a serious ankle injury (triple fracture) while we were on a business trip, so I'm in the hospital with her right now. Good thing we both voted last weekend! Polls seem to indicate a liberal win, they've been ticking up in ON and QC, and one of the advanced voting polls has reduced the CPC early vote advantage (they had a polling sampling error) from 10% to 5%. Tough to say for sure, but I'll make my final seat predictions tomorrow!

[CitizenVectron]

Also this news about the CPC hiring Warren Kinsella (former liberal backroom guy) to take down the PPC is not a good revelation for Scheer in the closing days.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Not a surprise:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[marioandsonic]

14 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Not a surprise:

 

 

Reminds me of this:

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

18 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I think he is an outlier - most other seat projections I have seen have a Liberal Minority  

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah personally I don't see a majority. Strong minority is likely if QC really is swinging back toward LPC from Bloc.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

[chakoo]

I still think it will end up just a few seats from majority. I want another majority but at least it should be enough of a lead over the CPC to end Scheer’s leadership, so I’ll take that as a consolation prize.

 

So happy this will be over in 48h.

[CitizenVectron]

What would be really interesting is if the LPC end up 2 or 3 seats short of a majority and then have to decide between the NDP and Greens for support. I suppose they may also in that case try to convince a few members to cross the floor and join the liberal government. Same thing happened in the early 2000s under Martin when a few conservatives crossed the floor.

[AbsolutSurgen]

11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

What would be really interesting is if the LPC end up 2 or 3 seats short of a majority and then have to decide between the NDP and Greens for support. I suppose they may also in that case try to convince a few members to cross the floor and join the liberal government. Same thing happened in the early 2000s under Martin when a few conservatives crossed the floor.

I don't believe the Liberals will want to meet May's conditions for support.

[AbsolutSurgen]

The WORST scenario would be a Liberal majority -- could you imagine having to suffer through 4 more years of Trudeau?

The BEST scenario is whatever it takes to have a mid-2020 election with new leaders at both the LPC and the CPC.

[CitizenVectron]

If Trudeau gets above 150 seats then I can't see him stepping down as leader at any point before the next election unless other scandals emerge. I think Scheer is likely gone though, unless the LPC+NDP is less than 170.

 

Another final poll: