|||| Canadian Election 🍁 Sorry |||| Liberals win plurality, stay in power.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Interesting article on the value of polling I found:

How accurate are polls in Canada? Less than you think!

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In average polls have been roughly 2 points off. That's not bad you'll say but remember that this is the polling AVERAGE. As mentioned above, this average should be much closer to the actual result if the only uncertainty was really due to random sampling. Being 2 points off for an individual poll? That's great. For the average composed of usually 5-10 polls? Not impressive. And this alone shows that theoretical margins of error published in the media are pretty useless. This is why, personally, I don't care about the phone vs online debate - at the end of the day, what matters is the empirical accuracy. But feel free to have a strong opinion on this and go on Reddit or Twitter to express your deep knowledge of stats.

 

Maybe the most shocking stat is the corresponding, effective, empirical margin of error: 5.8%! And if you think I made a mistake or that Canadian polls are uniquely bad, you'd be wrong. This same margin of error in the US is close to 7%! In other words, we pretty much never ever have an election where we can be absolutely certain as to who will win based on the polls. Take the current federal election, it means the range at 95% confidence level for the top two parties are 29% to 40% roughly. Yes that might seem absurd but this what the accuracy has been in the last 10 years.

 

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Don't believe me? You'll likely mention a list of elections where the polls were super close. Fair enough but let's me retort with many cases of giant mistakes. Alberta 2012, polls had the Wildrose ahead by 7 points, they lost by 10 to the PC! In BC 2013, the BC Liberals got 44% of the vote while the polls predicted around 36%.

 

More recently the CAQ in Quebec won over the Liberals with a margin of almost 13 points. What were the polls saying? CAQ ahead by roughly 4!

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

The Liberals have put out a press release exposing a stunt (lie) that Scheer was going to pull in the middle of the debate tonight: https://press-presse.liberal.ca/fact-check/liberals-expose-andrew-scheers-planned-debate-stunt/

 

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Ottawa, ON – Andrew Scheer has spent the 2019 campaign copying the American right-wing playbook, spreading false information to scare and mislead voters. They released an ad about pollution pricing that environmentalists called “highly deceptive,” spread a conspiracy about a notorious killer coming to Canada, and brazenly branded anyone who isn’t a climate-change denier a “climate hypocrite.” Today, Steve MacKinnon, Liberal candidate for Gatineau, is exposing the latest Andrew Scheer stunt designed to mislead Canadians.

 

The Conservative Party has secretly registered the website “HiddenHomeTax.ca.” They are planning to launch this new website tonight during the English-language Leaders’ Debate. It repeats a blatant falsehood Scheer has been peddling to Canadians for weeks that there is a secret plan to tax people’s homes. It’s not true, and Andrew Scheer knows it. But just like right-wing American politicians, he’s trying to scare people into believing this desperate stunt.

 

Right-wing twitter has been pushing a conspiracy over the last few months (fueled by bots) that the Liberals are going to institute a 50% tax on home sales. It's so ridiculous, but the CPC has started to push the rumour recently. I think it came out of some suggestion at some convention a while ago where a kook in the party said it was a good idea. It was shot down by the party and nothing has been done since.

 

Conservatives here are getting to the point of Republicans in the US, in terms of conspiracy theories. The whole "Trudeau slept with a 17-year old and the government is using the courts to cover it up" is still blowing up on conservative twitter.

[CitizenVectron]

It's also come out that Andrew Scheer is a member of Opus Dei, the Catholic society made famous by Dan Brown in The Da Vinci Code: https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/10/07/andrew-scheer-dit-ne-jamais-avoir-ete-membre-de-lopus-dei

[dualhunter]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

It's also come out that Andrew Scheer is a member of Opus Dei, the Catholic society made famous by Dan Brown in The Da Vinci Code: https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/10/07/andrew-scheer-dit-ne-jamais-avoir-ete-membre-de-lopus-dei

 

Your link says he denies ever having been a member of Opus Dei.

[Jason]

 

[dualhunter]

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

The joke would have worked better had Scheer been the one who dressed up in brown face.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

31 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I thought Canadian cared about policy not silly things like performative debates

[CitizenVectron]

The debate was horrible because it was all canned talking points. Singh had the best one-liners. May had the best individual moment on abortion I think.

 

Overall I'd say there was no clear winner, which means each side will declare victory.

 

Also the moderators (except the last one, Barton) sucked. They didn't even moderate!

[AbsolutSurgen]

Debates are an antiquated concept in the era of canned talking points and media training.

 

A question can be asked about "indigenous rights", and the response comes back about "tax cuts".

 

I really wanted the moderators to say "are you a fucking idiot? that response has nothing to do with the question".

 

Edit:  They really need a debate without the fringe parties.  There is no point having people on the stage that have a 0% chance of ever forming a government.  Rationale people who are trying to make a decision on who to vote for do not need to listen to ridiculous opinions from leaders who aspire to having 10 seats in the House of Commons.

 

Second Edit:  At least they cut off speaking when time ran out.  Moderators in the US could learn to take some lessons on this.

[SilentWorld]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

The debate was horrible because it was all canned talking points. Singh had the best one-liners. May had the best individual moment on abortion I think.

 

Overall I'd say there was no clear winner, which means each side will declare victory.

 

Also the moderators (except the last one, Barton) sucked. They didn't even moderate!

What did May say about abortion? I could only listen to parts of it because I was working.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, SilentWorld said:

What did May say about abortion? I could only listen to parts of it because I was working.

 

Trudeau pivoted on abortion and LGBTQ against Scheer, and Singh said something like "No man should say any opinion on a woman's right to choose" and got cheers. Then May pivoted to how as the only female leader she has been excluded from some debates, and it's important for the candidates to let all of the female viewers know that there will not be one inch of retreat on the hard-fought right for a women to control her own body.

[Brick]

So I guess I didn't miss much? I went to see Joker last night and missed the debate. 

[CitizenVectron]

46 minutes ago, Brick said:

So I guess I didn't miss much? I went to see Joker last night and missed the debate. 

 

Best summed up here:

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

First post-debate poll:

 

[SilentWorld]

10 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

First post-debate poll:

 

oh no this is the one thing I didn’t want to happen 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, SilentWorld said:

oh no this is the one thing I didn’t want to happen 

 

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

First post-debate poll:

 

 

Don't worry, it's not accurate, this is a major outlier. The regional breakdowns show the Liberals at 2% in SK, and greens at 13%. With a sample of 32 people. That province alone is throwing off the national numbers. Even with this poll, the regionals show the Liberals ahead in seat count as it still shows them ahead in ON, QC, and ATL. Ipsos also says their polls from last night showed the opposite movement.

 

That's not to say that the numbers couldn't or haven't moved towards the CPC! But this poll is certainly an outlier with a big sampling problem that is inflating the CPC even in a place like SK.

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Keep in mind that Forum's 2015 Final poll was much closer to the election result than the "average" of polls. 

 

To be clear, I am not saying that Forum's polls are better.  I am just saying that the "average" does not necessarily mean much.

 

With using non-random samples, and the impact of non-even voter turnout (and the difference between popular vote and seat results).  IMHO, the election is "too close to call" -- and there are a variety of potential outcomes come election day.

[CitizenVectron]

I agree, we can't read to much into the polls. Just wanted to point out that a giant swing over a single night was incredibly unlikely. Also this:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Actually, it turns out that the subsample was 36 people for SK and MB. The margin of error was +/- 16% for those two provinces. The poll showed 75% for CPC and 2% for LPC, but the averages so far have shown around 48% CPC, 24% LPC. If that region had been sampled better, the result would likely show the CPC with a national 3-5% lead rather than 7%. That would fit better in with Forum's past results. Again, not to say those couldn't possibly be the real numbers...but one of the two major parties polling 2% across two provinces is impossible. 

[CitizenVectron]

Less than two weeks before election day, and less than 3 days before early voting begins and Scheer still hasn't released his election platform. He promised he would do it before early voting started, but is now saying that he will do it at some point, with enough time for Canadians to read it before voting. In other words, he's pulling a Doug Ford.

[CitizenVectron]

I don't have the links handy, but polls released in the last 24 hours (and comments from other pollsters) seem to indicate a few trends from the debates:

 

- Liberals and Cons both down a few %

- PPC and Bloc picking up Con votes

- NDP picking up Lib votes

 

Overall Liberals maintain seat advantage, nationally Libs and Cons are tied vote-wise. I think it was a mistake to let Bernier in the debates. Yes it will help the LPC win a few extra seats due to the PPC possibly splitting off enough vote in some ridings, but overall it is bad for Canada.

 

As always, it will come down to the 905 in Ontario (Toronto suburbs). They tend to vote like a boomer mob of idiots, swinging wildly between Liberal and Conservative each election.

[AbsolutSurgen]

6 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

I don't have the links handy, but polls released in the last 24 hours (and comments from other pollsters) seem to indicate a few trends from the debates:

 

- Liberals and Cons both down a few %

- PPC and Bloc picking up Con votes

- NDP picking up Lib votes

 

Overall Liberals maintain seat advantage, nationally Libs and Cons are tied vote-wise. I think it was a mistake to let Bernier in the debates. Yes it will help the LPC win a few extra seats due to the PPC possibly splitting off enough vote in some ridings, but overall it is bad for Canada.

 

As always, it will come down to the 905 in Ontario (Toronto suburbs). They tend to vote like a boomer mob of idiots, swinging wildly between Liberal and Conservative each election.

A "boomer mob of idiots"?  I think I may take offence to that.

[CitizenVectron]

The 905 swings back and forth with no apparent ideology or reason. I can't imagine switch back and forth between different ideologies so often without having total ignorance of what the parties stand for. These are the people who vote after a total of 13 minutes of paid attention during the campaign.

[Jason]

905?

[CitizenVectron]

Man, polls are all over the place. The only sure thing is that the Bloc has destroyed CPC and NDP support in Quebec, and the Liberals are now at risk as well. Right now the Liberals still look to win a majority of seats in that province, but if the Bloc keeps their momentum, that will change. We could see a very close and very divided Parliament. As of right now, it looks like neither the CPC or LPC will be able to form a stable government without the support of the Bloc, which is horrible. 

 

It also seems obvious that both major parties are salivating at the thought of trashing their leader should they lose. In the CPC people are already openly saying that Peter McKay will try to oust Scheer. I would imagine Jason Kenney would also get in the mix. So interestingly, the better long-term gain for either the CPC or LPC would be to lose by a little, hold a quick leadership vote/change, and then trigger a confidence motion. It's not like Scheer or Trudeau will gain popularity as PM, and a fresh leader (especially McKay for the CPC or someone like Chrystia Freeland for the Liberals) would have a much better image. 

 

Interesting times.

 

13 hours ago, Jason said:

905?

 

The 905 is an area code that encompasses the suburbs of Toronto, so it used as short-hand for the suburban single-home sprawl that surrounds the city itself. The city of Toronto is solidly Liberal, but the suburbs swing wildly between the Liberals and Conservatives (and NDP in 2011).

[CitizenVectron]

On the Friday afternoon before the Thanksgiving long weekend (and only 10 days before the election) , the Conservatives have finally released their election platform...and it's full of cuts.

 

 

We're talking Doug Ford-level cuts here. Because yes, what Canada needs right now is cuts to infrastructure.

 

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Thanksgiving

 

silly Canucks 

[AbsolutSurgen]

16 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

The 905 swings back and forth with no apparent ideology or reason. I can't imagine switch back and forth between different ideologies so often without having total ignorance of what the parties stand for. These are the people who vote after a total of 13 minutes of paid attention during the campaign.

Not everyone has a political ideology -- and the Liberal and Conservative parties are both "center big tent parties". That is why so many people move between them.

 

 

16 hours ago, Jason said:

905?

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) was split into two area codes about 20 years ago.  "416" contains the city of Toronto (the "old" city of Toronto and the inner suburbs (York, North York, Scarborough, Etobicoke, etc), "905" contains all of the outermost suburbs (Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughn, etc.) -- it also contains Hamilton (which is not part of the GTA).

The old city of Toronto and Scarborough tends to elect either the NDP or Liberals.

Many of the more affluent suburbs (i.e. Etobicoke, areas of York, etc.) tend to be Liberal or Conservative with many of them oscilating between them (some are solidly Liberal/some are solidly Conservative).

Many of the 905 ridings tend to have very similar levels of support for the Liberals and Conservatives -- so they are "up for grabs" in most elections.

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

The 905 is an area code that encompasses the suburbs of Toronto, so it used as short-hand for the suburban single-home sprawl that surrounds the city itself. The city of Toronto is solidly Liberal, but the suburbs swing wildly between the Liberals and Conservatives (and NDP in 2011).

Toronto isn't solidly Liberal.

Could you define suburban single-home sprawl for me?  'Cause what I think of when you say that, is not what I see in Mississauga.

[AbsolutSurgen]

32 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

silly Canucks 

????

[AbsolutSurgen]

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

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From a high of 166 seats in the national projection in the days following the French-language TVA debate, before the fallout from that contest was being registered in the polls, the Liberals have plummeted nearly 30 seats to 139. That puts them just two ahead of the Conservatives.

The close race in the national polls has now become a close race in the seat projections — meaning this election has become even more of a toss-up.

CBC projections show a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the balance of power potentially held by the Bloc.

 

I still think the Liberals have more potential upside than the Conservatives though.

 

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

CBC projections show a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the balance of power potentially held by the Bloc.

 

I still think the Liberals have more potential upside than the Conservatives though.

 

 

I agree, I think the Liberals have a stronger set of advantages (especially concentration of regional votes), but it's theoretically either party's election now. The one unknown now is how the news of Scheer's planned cuts will affect votes in Ontario. Ford is obviously unpopular, and Scheer's platform is familiar, so if it gets coverage next week it could affect the vote in Ontario. I think it's still the Liberals to lose, but honestly I don't think whoever wins is going to last long, I can't see a minority lasting more than a year or two in this climate. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Conservatives Reportedly Might Already Be Shopping For A Scheer Replacement

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The Canadian federal election has been a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with neither party having a clear cut path to a decisive victory just yet. Now, there are rumblings that if Andrew Scheer, the Conservative leader, can't bring the party to victory, then he will be replaced by someone else.

That's according to a new report from the Globe And Mail, which cites several anonymous sources from within the Conservative Party as saying that supporters of Peter Mackay, a former Conservative cabinet minister, will mount their own leadership campaign for him if Scheer loses.

I've never been a big fan of Peter Mackay, however, I think he would have done much better than Scheer will in this election.  I don't think I can hold my breath and vote for Scheer.  But if Mackay was running, it would be an easy choice for me  between him and Trudeau.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

The 905 is an area code that encompasses the suburbs of Toronto, so it used as short-hand for the suburban single-home sprawl that surrounds the city itself.

I know I am beating a dead horse here (I think you hit a nerve here) .  According to the last census, only 38% of the dwellings in Mississauga (largest city in 905) are single detached homes (this rises to 46% for the Peel Region).  This is below the 54% average in Ontario or 73% in Saskatchewan.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I know I am beating a dead horse here (I think you hit a nerve here) .  According to the last census, only 38% of the dwellings in Mississauga (largest city in 905) are single detached homes (this rises to 46% for the Peel Region).  This is below the 54% average in Ontario or 73% in Saskatchewan.

 

I include row/townhouses in that, as in not apartment buildings and multi-unit/floor dwellings. But I will 100% grant that smaller provinces have more suburban-style development than provinces with larger cities. We also have much of the same (and more) entitled suburban attitude!