|||| Canadian Election 🍁 Sorry |||| Liberals win plurality, stay in power.

[CitizenVectron]

Polls are all over the place. This poll shows the Greens dropping and Cons rising, while another in the same period showed the Greens in 3rd nationally (and 2nd in BC, QC, and SK) with the Libs in the lead. Canadian polling really sucks compared to American polling. I suspect both polls are wrong, because the Greens are no way near 2nd in QC (Bloc is rising in all other polls at expense of NDP and Cons), and there is also almost no way that the Cons are performing equally with the Libs with women. Part of the issue in Canada is sample size (they don't poll nearly enough) and the other is that pollsters here are not as good at determine likely voters compared to the general population.

[AbsolutSurgen]

How accurate are Canadian polls?

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

21 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Polls are all over the place. This poll shows the Greens dropping and Cons rising, while another in the same period showed the Greens in 3rd nationally (and 2nd in BC, QC, and SK) with the Libs in the lead. Canadian polling really sucks compared to American polling. I suspect both polls are wrong, because the Greens are no way near 2nd in QC (Bloc is rising in all other polls at expense of NDP and Cons), and there is also almost no way that the Cons are performing equally with the Libs with women. Part of the issue in Canada is sample size (they don't poll nearly enough) and the other is that pollsters here are not as good at determine likely voters compared to the general population.

How big are the poll sizes in the US?  If I remember my stats, a random sample of over 1,000 gives you a pretty good result.  The problem is getting a real random sample...

[CitizenVectron]

12 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

How big are the poll sizes in the US?  If I remember my stats, a random sample of over 1,000 gives you a pretty good result.  The problem is getting a real random sample...

 

I don't know the exact numbers, but I think it was Nanos or Ekos that recently put out a poll with a 5.5%+/- margin of error, which is crazy. People take these things as gospel, but if for example their result was:

• LPC - 37%
• CPC - 34%

Then the actual numbers could be:

• LPC - 31.5%
• CPC - 39.5%

or

• LPC - 42.5%
• CPC - 28.5%

So basically either party could form an overwhelming majority government with those numbers, so the polls is effectively worthless as a predictor. When you're talking 1% or 2% margin of error it's a little easier (especially with multi-day rolling polls).

 

That's one issue, but the larger one is that in the US they are getting pretty good (in the last two or three Presidential elections) at taking the random samples and then converting them to likely voter models using outside factors like enthusiasm, past exit polls, etc. In Canada the science simply isn't there, so they have to use the raw numbers or some guess at what likely voters will be. So while a poll of the general public might show the Greens at 14%, for example, actual likely voters might only come out at 9% for that party. So this makes it quite hard to figure out what the actual results will be.

 

The poll aggregators in Canada (basically the CBC Pollcast, Canada338, and Leantossup) are okay in looking for the average pop. vote numbers, but each of their seat projection models has flaws, as they generally just apply the regional vote to each province, which usually bears no resemblance to how it plays out in real life. If you look at those, Canada338 is probably the best, with LeanTossup being too pro-Liberal in their calcs (not for any partisan reason I think, just how they calculate), and the CBC one is okay.

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I don't know the exact numbers, but I think it was Nanos or Ekos that recently put out a poll with a 5.5%+/- margin of error, which is crazy. People take these things as gospel, but if for example their result was:

• LPC - 37%
• CPC - 34%

Then the actual numbers could be:

• LPC - 31.5%
• CPC - 39.5%

That's one issue, but the larger one is that in the US they are getting pretty good (in the last two or three Presidential elections) at taking the random samples and then converting them to likely voter models using outside factors like enthusiasm, past exit polls, etc. In Canada the science simply isn't there, so they have to use the raw numbers or some guess at what likely voters will be. So while a poll of the general public might show the Greens at 14%, for example, actual likely voters might only come out at 9% for that party. So this makes it quite hard to figure out what the actual results will be.

The Nanos polls are +/- 2.8% -- they are reporting responses (and reweighting them).  They are not modelling election results.

The last EKOS polls are +/- 2.5%

The last Ipsos poll was +/-2.9%

 

When you look at EKOS putting the Conservatives at 31.1%, and Ipsos putting the Conservatives at 37%  -- you're absolutely right at how the polls are really conflicting.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The Nanos polls are +/- 2.8% -- they are reporting responses (and reweighting them).  They are not modelling election results.

The last EKOS polls are +/- 2.5%

The last Ipsos poll was +/-2.9%

 

When you look at EKOS putting the Conservatives at 31.1%, and Ipsos putting the Conservatives at 37%  -- you're absolutely right at how the polls are really conflicting.

 

It might have been a regional poll that was the 5.5% MOE - perhaps of Quebec. And yes, the polls are definitely conflicting. I think in general they all point to both the CPC and LPC likely being both in between 33 and 36%, as the most likely current state.

[CitizenVectron]

Right now the three main aggregators have the following:

 

(% Vote / Seats)

 

CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 33.4% - 163

CPC - 34.3% - 140

NDP - 13.8% - 16

GRN - 10.4% - 4

 

338 Canada:

LPC - 33.9% - 166

CPC - 34.3% - 138

NDP - 12.9% - 11

GRN - 10.3% - 5

 

Lean Tossup:

LPC - 34.3% - 184

CPC - 33.3% - 120

NDP - 12.4% - 17

GRN - 11.2% - 7

 

So this all averages out to:

 

Averages

LPC - 33.9% - 171

CPC - 34.3% - 133

NDP - 13.0% - 15

GRN - 10.6% - 5

 

Assuming that things stay this way, this likely ends up as a minority government for the LPC, possibly supported by the NDP in exchange for policy compromise towards the left.

[AbsolutSurgen]

If you do the math, I don’t think you would like the margin of error on the seat projections that you just did. 

[CitizenVectron]

24 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If you do the math, I don’t think you would like the margin of error on the seat projections that you just did. 

 

Oh yeah it's quite wide. These are just the centre numbers.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Can someone explain to me why Trudeau looks like he is creeping on a 19-year old?

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jesus.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Young Canadian Joe Biden

[CitizenVectron]

Lol those pictures were posted by the right wing so much a few weeks ago. If you look at the video of the moment it's not creepy, he just leans in and laughs, it's not like Biden at all. He does the same thing with old men, too. Trudeau has good reason to be criticized for things, but this thing was made up.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Lol those pictures were posted by the right wing so much a few weeks ago. If you look at the video of the moment it's not creepy, he just leans in and laughs, it's not like Biden at all. He does the same thing with old men, too. Trudeau has good reason to be criticized for things, but this thing was made up.

Don't kink shame

[CitizenVectron]

French debate was last night. General consensus seems to be of the leaders' performances:

 

Bloc>Liberal>NDP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Conservative

 

The big thing the CPC is hitting the Liberals on right now is how Justin Trudeau has two campaign planes, which is hypocritical given that he is running on a climate-crisis platform (well, moreso than the CPC). It's so dumb though, as the Liberals at least have some plans (including carbon tax that increases each year) while the CPC plan to do basically nothing. But some people will eat it up. It's like the people who say Bernie Sanders is a hypocrite because he made a few million from a book and owns two houses. Well yes, but his plans would also benefit the poor in the US while Trump does not.

[CitizenVectron]

News coming out now is that Andrew Scheer holds US citizenship: https://election.ctvnews.ca/andrew-scheer-has-dual-canadian-u-s-citizenship-party-confirms-1.4623024

 

He started the work to renounce it just prior to the election. Personally I don't care as he gained it because his dad was American, so it wasn't his choice. But what I do care about is that Scheer and his party viciously attacked two previous Liberal leaders (and an NDP leader) for either working in the US in the past, or for hold dual Canadian-French citizenship. They even attacked the Governor General for holding dual citizenship before she was GG. Scheer made these criticisms while he himself held dual citizenship.

[CitizenVectron]

 

Okay that's pretty good.

 

[Anathema-]

[AbsolutSurgen]

16 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

News coming out now is that Andrew Scheer holds US citizenship: https://election.ctvnews.ca/andrew-scheer-has-dual-canadian-u-s-citizenship-party-confirms-1.4623024

 

He started the work to renounce it just prior to the election. Personally I don't care as he gained it because his dad was American, so it wasn't his choice. But what I do care about is that Scheer and his party viciously attacked two previous Liberal leaders (and an NDP leader) for either working in the US in the past, or for hold dual Canadian-French citizenship. They even attacked the Governor General for holding dual citizenship before she was GG. Scheer made these criticisms while he himself held dual citizenship.

I was out of the country for most of the Dion dual-citizenship controversy -- so don't have a lot of background (the articles I googled said both Jack Layton and Stephen Harper criticized his decision not to renounce his dual citizenship.)

 

I've tried to find links to Scheer viciously (or even not viciously) attacking anyone over dual citizenship -- the only thing I can find is this:

Andrew Scheer 2005 Blog Post

Quote

Quick Questions

I have a few quick questions for anyone who thinks that Michaelle Jean is a good choice to be our next GG.

1) What are her qualifications? What experience does she have that would assist her to carry out her duties as our head of state, including the potential to be a referee in a minority government situation?

2) Does it bother you that she is a dual citizen (France and Canada)? Would it bother you if instead of French citizenship, she held U.S. citizenship?

3) It is being reported that her husband is quite chummy with some FLQers belonging to the same group that killed Pierre Laporte. If her husband was quite friendly with Al-Queda terrorists, would that be alright?

Can you help me find something?

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

Can you help me find something?

 

You are correct, I apologize for being mistaken. I was conflating his party's/leader's attacks on Dion and Mulcair with him. There appear to be no public records of him attacking them on the issue. Not that I don't think he would have if he wasn't speaker. The attacks on Michaelle Jean are damning enough in terms of hypocrisy, especially considering that he specifically pointed out that it would be viewed as worse if her secondary citizenship was American, not French.

 

IMO, dual-citizenship isn't an issue and shouldn't even matter unless it went deeper and involved some level of activity with a foreign political party or group (at the same time as being involved in Canadian politics, or it revealed views that run counter to Canadian interests). So if Scheer registered as a Republican in the US, that would be newsworthy. I don't think he was dumb enough to ever do that, however. So in this case, the only news is the hypocrisy, not the actual citizenship issue.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

You are correct, I apologize for being mistaken. I was conflating his party's/leader's attacks on Dion and Mulcair with him. There appear to be no public records of him attacking them on the issue. Not that I don't think he would have if he wasn't speaker. The attacks on Michaelle Jean are damning enough in terms of hypocrisy, especially considering that he specifically pointed out that it would be viewed as worse if her secondary citizenship was American, not French.

 

IMO, dual-citizenship isn't an issue and shouldn't even matter unless it went deeper and involved some level of activity with a foreign political party or group (at the same time as being involved in Canadian politics, or it revealed views that run counter to Canadian interests). So if Scheer registered as a Republican in the US, that would be newsworthy. I don't think he was dumb enough to ever do that, however. So in this case, the only news is the hypocrisy, not the actual citizenship issue.

 

I agree with you about dual citizenship -- all 3 of my kids are dual citizens, and I have a ton of family that is as well.

 

One of my big frustrations with Scheer, is how ambiguous a lot of his comments are.  Given the context of the last few days, I interpreted that it would be better if she was an American dual-citizen rather than a French dual-citizen.  (You clearly interpreted it in a very different way.)

 

I certainly don't consider this 15-year old blog post an "attack" on Michaelle Jean.  I really don't know what Scheer's POV was when he wrote that post-- if it was that you should renounce any foreign citizenships before becoming GG/PM -- then he is doing exactly that.

 

To me, this is a whole lot about nothing.  If the Liberals were to raise his dual-citizenship as an issue -- as if it made you "less of a Canadian" -- then they stand the chance of alienating a ton of people in the GTA/Vancouver.

[CitizenVectron]

Apparently some big exposé on Trudeau is coming in the Globe and Mail tomorrow, hinted by Warren Kinsella (former Liberal hitman who the Greens hired, and then fired, who hates Trudeau and the new gen of Liberals). What has been interesting is following the news/hints of this today, and what it could be. 

 

It started with a reporter asking Trudeau about the situation involving him leaving his teaching job in BC in 2001. Some people thought maybe he slept with a parent or a student. But then today the Headmaster said he left on good terms to go back to Montreal, and there was no controversy that he was aware of. Warren Kinsella tweeted that big news about Trudeau is coming out tomorrow, and included a photo of Trudeau with a bunch of women.

 

But then a journalist tweeted that if it's what she thinks it is, it's been going around in journalistic circles for a while and that if Kinsella/G&M publish it they will likely have to lawyer up as it would endanger the public.

 

So what the fuck is it? Very interesting. Seems like there is something that the press has kept under wraps for some reason for a while for Trudeau (which the Canadian press does for governments if it's a secret that could harm people, it's not like in the US where they go immediately for scoops) that Kinsella/G&M are going to run. No idea what could involve national security/public safety and be damaging to Trudeau. Unless this is all misdirection. Also weird to have it drop on a weekend and not as soon as they could during the week.

 

Perhaps something involving Chinese/Russian infiltration in Canadian military/intelligence (something that's been discussed for a while) and an ongoing investigation into it? The journalist specifically said that the G&M (and Kinsella) and it's sources would need to get lawyers.

 

lol, maybe the alt-right rumour of Trudeau being Fidel Castro's bastard son are true!

[CitizenVectron]

Some theorizing now that it could be damaging information taken from private servers that a foreign government hacked into and released to oppo agents. That could fit (in the sense that journalists are using classified/secure information/sources stolen by foreign countries). Not sure what the info would be, though.

[AbsolutSurgen]

We enter the last couple of weeks of the campaign with the two lead parties virtually tied in most polls -- almost anything can happen.  In the last election, the Liberals made huge strides in the polls during the last two weeks of the campaign.

 

With two debates left, and rumours of a new Trudeau scandal (that so far not come forward) -- there are lots of opportunities for the polls to move.

 

I still think that the most likely scenario is a Liberal minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power....

[CitizenVectron]

3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

We enter the last couple of weeks of the campaign with the two lead parties virtually tied in most polls -- almost anything can happen.  In the last election, the Liberals made huge strides in the polls during the last two weeks of the campaign.

 

With two debates left, and rumours of a new Trudeau scandal (that so far not come forward) -- there are lots of opportunities for the polls to move.

 

I still think that the most likely scenario is a Liberal minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power....

 

Moreso than in the US, I think election campaigns matter in Canada. At this point in the last election the Conservatives were still ahead and looking like they had a shot at a minority, with the NDP right behind them.

 

The Trudeau story never materialized today, and many tweets regarding it have disappeared. So it was either nothing and spread by bots and kooks, or the Globe's legal team stopped it, assuming it did involve national security (or was obtained through foreign intervention).

 

EDIT - Also I just want to say that it is nice to be able to have a civil conversation here considering we appear to be of differing political views (though generally in Canada the differences aren't so vast as in the US). It's pretty toxic out there right now, and I can't even talk to some of my family about politics because they exist in the Facebook bubble.

[CitizenVectron]

Back to the Andrew Scheer citizenship one last time, the valid (legal) concern I saw brought up was that he is currently registered for selective service in the US and is therefore able to be drafted by the American military. Legally there is a question if he would be able to be head of government because of his conflicting loyalty (until his American citizenship is revoked). It's been suggested that it would need to be referred to the Queen, or the Supreme Court if he won the election before his American citizenship has been revoked. Personally I don't see that being a concern (even though I don't want him as PM, I think he's scummy, bigoted, and weasily), but I do love these legal scenarios/questions. A previous favourite of mine (which still hasn't been fully revealed) is that in 1995 when it looked like Quebec might actually vote to secede, the LPC and CPC put together a secret agreement that Chretien would be kicked out as PM and a caretaker union government would be formed from the other provinces. There was no question of Chretien's loyality (he was perhaps the most federalist MP in the country's history, perhaps except for Pierre Trudeau), but legally there was the question if a Quebec MP should lead the country while negotiations occured for Quebec to leave the country.

[chakoo]

While I live in a very liberal ridding (that went NDP last provincial election), the sentiment I'm getting from neighbors and co-workers is ford really screwed scheer over this election. So regardless what happens from here on out I think we're looking at a liberal minority at minimum. 

 

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

EDIT - Also I just want to say that it is nice to be able to have a civil conversation here considering we appear to be of differing political views (though generally in Canada the differences aren't so vast as in the US). It's pretty toxic out there right now, and I can't even talk to some of my family about politics because they exist in the Facebook bubble.

It's also nice to not see this thread hyper ventilate over everything like Resetra is doing. -.-

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Back to the Andrew Scheer citizenship one last time, the valid (legal) concern I saw brought up was that he is currently registered for selective service in the US and is therefore able to be drafted by the American military.

I don't like Scheer one bit but I find this bit to be crap because it means no male of direct american decent can't be allowed to be a PM. All american male citizens are required at the age of 18 to register for the draft. He'll also never be drafted (there is a general age cut off where you're considered too old,  Some family members from my father's mom side of the family weren't drafted into WW2 due to being past a set age).

[CitizenVectron]

Good article on how Trudeau has actually lived up to almost all of his progressive promises (with the exception of electoral reform), yet puritan progressives are balking at him due to his behaviour. It seems to happen everywhere - conservatives don't mind bad behaviour as long as they get what they want, but progressives demand purity: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/trudeaus-progressive-style/599203/

 

Quote

The 2019 election is a test for Canadian progressives: style or substance. The Liberal government of Justin Trudeau is the most successful progressive government in the world. It instituted a carbon tax and legalized marijuana. Last year, for the first time, Canada settled more refugees than any other country. Because of higher government benefits, child poverty is at its lowest level in history. Economic growth this year reached 3 percent. That is what Trudeau has done. He also appeared in brownface at an Aladdin-themed costume party in 2001 at the age of 29.

 

Canadian progressives, like progressives all over the world, must decide whether they care more about the pursuit of social and cultural change, through the eradication of racist and sexist imagery, or the pursuit of transformative policies.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Couple of polls showing the Conservatives dropping, and the Liberals tied or ahead now:

 

 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

It was a hot load of garbage:

 

 

The rumour got so heated that the right-wing twitter crowds (and /r/metacanada) were saying that Trudeau had the government shut down the story with a secret court injunction. Lawyers were commenting that that can't happen in Canada, the most that can happen is a court can prevent small things from being in a story, like an individual's name, etc, but not stop an entire story. And any court filing itself would be public, so we'd know if a political party even tried to prevent something from going public. So now the belief (in that crazy sphere) is that it's been buried, even though it appears it was all a hoax. I would be shocked if it wasn't orchestrated (or at least amplified) by foreign twitter bots. It's basically Pizzagate but with Canada.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Nanos continuing to hold the Liberals in a leading position:

 

 

Trudeau's numbers are also up (personally), while Scheer took a hit this week. They were tied previously, Trudeau now has an 8% advantage on the question of who has the higher approval rating. Singh has received the biggest jump, moving up +11 this week.

 

[CitizenVectron]

The first French debate...did not go well for Andrew Scheer:

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

I’m expecting a poor performance on Monday from him as well. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

20 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Nanos continuing to hold the Liberals in a leading position:

 

 

Trudeau's numbers are also up (personally), while Scheer took a hit this week. They were tied previously, Trudeau now has an 8% advantage on the question of who has the higher approval rating. Singh has received the biggest jump, moving up +11 this week.

 

The Nanos poll this morning went the other way again (Liberals still leading):

The variability in polling could make for a very exciting election night.