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|||| Canadian Election 🍁 Sorry |||| Liberals win plurality, stay in power.

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Election Day Update:


Statistical tie (nationally) between Liberals and Conservatives (32% each). Rise of socialist NDP (19%) and separatist Bloc Quebecois (7%) have caused the Liberals and Conservatives to drop to historic lows (in combined polling). Likely result will be hung Parliament. Green Party rose to highest levels but has collapsed in final week of election (high of 15%, now around 7%). Best guess is a Liberal plurality, possibly with NDP or NDP+Bloc holding balance of power. Right-wing populist PPC have cratered (1 or 2%), which is great news.





The election will be held on Oct 21. The writ has not yet been dropped, but is expected in the next two weeks, resulting in a minimum campaign of 36 days. I bet you Americans are jealous of how short it is ;) .

Parties and Leaders:



Liberal Party - Justin Trudeau (current Prime Minister)

Summary: Historically the "natural governing party" of Canada, the Liberals were the dominant party of the 20th century (winning 20 out of 29 elections in that period). Considered a centrist party, they typically run on socially liberal and economically centrist/liberal positions. Reduced to third-party status in 2011, they rebounded in 2015 under novice Trudeau (son of former PM Pierre Trudeau) by shifting heavily to the left.

Election Priorities: Protect Carbon Tax, introduce first steps of universal pharmacare, continue immigration initiatives.



Conservative Party - Andrew Scheer (Leader of the Opposition)

Summary: Previously formed from the Progressive Conservative Party (main opposition for Canada's history) and the Reform Party/Canadian Alliance, the Conservative Party is socially and economically right-wing. Scheer is a religious Conservative who has shown support in the past for re-opening the abortion debate, and was opposed to marriage equality. The party won three elections in a row under former leader Stephen Harper by generally governing pragmatically from the centre-right and avoiding social issues. The party has recently been plagued by controversy over Scheer's refusal to openly state his beliefs on gay marriage and abortion.

Election Priorities: Eliminate Carbon Tax, lower taxes, reduce immigration.



New Democratic Party- Jagmeet Singh

Summary: Considered "Canada's Conscience," the NDP (and their predecessors the CCF) have typically put pressure on the Liberal Party from the left, forcing them to adopt more progressive policies in order to remain in power. Previous pushes include universal healthcare, labour rights, and marriage equality. Traditionally a pro-labour party, they achieved Official Opposition status two elections ago and have since fallen into third. In this election they risk dropping into fourth as the Liberal Party has assumed the role as the main party of the left.

Election Priorities: Protect Carbon Tax, increase minimum wages and worker protections, universal pharmacare.



Green Party - Elizabeth May

Summary: Party focused on environmental issues including climate change, with a general centrist economic and social slant. Currently hold 2 seats in the House, with hopes of expanding to 4-8 as they rise in the polls. Primary concern is that they have been a fringe party in the past, and haven't yet proven themselves to have answers on general policy issues.

Election Priorities: Protect and increase Carbon Tax, push for clean energy initiatives.



People's Party - Maxime Bernier

Summary: Formed by the loser of the Conservative Party's leadership contest, the PPC is ostensibly a libertarian-style conservative party, but in reality is an alt-right, racist party.

Election Priorities: Stop immigration, remove government regulations on many industries.



Bloc Quebecois - Yves-François Blanchet

Summary: Solely interested in an independent Quebec, the party has low support compared to its peak in the 1990s. Generally left-wing, it also attracts support from nationalist groups on the right.

Election Priorities: Remove Quebec from Canada.


Current Standings (seats):

Liberals: 177

Conservatives: 95

NDP: 40

Bloc: 10

Green: 2

PPC: 1

Other: 9
Vacant: 4




The polls have been statistically tied for more than a month, with the general trend of the Liberals gaining ground at the expense of the NDP. In Canada the progressive vote typically adds up to 50-70%, but it is split between 2-4 parties. The vote has been slowly moving away from the NDP and towards the Liberals and Greens, while the Conservatives appear to be close to their ceiling.


Seat Projection:


Even though the polls are tied, the Liberals hold a fairly significant edge in projected seat count due to their superior vote distribution across the country. The Conservatives have commanding leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but they already control most of the seats there so the vote is inefficient and wasted. The Liberals on the other hand have gained in competitive (and populous) Ontario, meaning their total projected seats has increased quite a bit. Though it is early, the Greens are expected to pick up one or two additional seats, and possibly three or four. The NDP on the other hand have a not-insignificant chance of being reduced to 0-10 seats, potentially losing official party status. 



Canada's next election is Oct 21, and will likely decide the fate of Canada's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through a carbon tax system (amongst other measures). The governing Liberals under Justin Trudeau have been hit by scandals over the past year involving government interference in criminal investigations of corporations, which has reduced their lead to a statistical tie with the opposition Conservatives, led by religious and social conservative Andrew Scheer. The progressive vote has shifted away from the social democratic party (NDP) to either the Liberals or Greens, resulting in the probability of a minority government for the Liberals, supported by the NDP and/or Greens. A rogue alt-right party called the PPC is expected to siphon 2-3% away from the Conservative Party, and is led by former Conservative Maxime Bernier. Major issues are climate change, the economy (which is improving in Canada), healthcare, and immigration.

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4 minutes ago, Remarkableriots said:

@CitizenVectron Has support completely died for replanting areas that have deforestation for fracking? 


It's not even on the radar. Oil is God in Alberta, and the population outside of Edmonton would probably be fine with tearing down schools to get at it. The economy there has been horrible for the last few years because of oil price drops, and there is no hope in sight. They elected a reactionary conservative government promising to bring back the good times, but their only solution is to slash corporate taxes (already the lowest in the country, and the only place without a sales tax). Alberta is effectively Kentucky in that they keep voting against their own interests, and when things don't get better they go even further against them.


In general, however, the country is very green when it comes to energy production. I think Canada is at around 65% renewable energy right now, since most of our energy in central (populous) Canada is provided by hydro power (dams). We export a huge amount of that to the US eastern seaboard as well. But Alberta and Saskatchewan's economies rely on oil, so it will continue to be pumped at all costs.

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Not sure exactly who I'm going to vote for (either Liberal or NDP), but I know for sure who I'm NOT voting for: the Conservatives and Andrew Sheer. We already fucked up in Ontario by letting Doug Ford win the provincial election, so no way we should let his buddy Sheer win the federal election. 

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Just a little update now that the election has been called. Polls continue to show the race statistically tied between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with the Liberals winning the most seats based on thier concentrated vote in Ontario and Quebec:




The most interesting stuff this week has been the fight between the 3rd-place NDP and the Greens who are trying to displace them. The Greens have been rising lately, but this week was rough for them after they admitted that they would not stop their MPs from re-opening the abortion debate, and would not stop them from voting to break up Canada (they have sovereigntist candidates running in Quebec).

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43 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Ontario continues to suffer the wrath of a crack head's brother so that the rest of Canada might not punch itself in the balls too hard and vote in the CPC to power. 



I'm really crossing my fingers for another LPC majority. 



Personally I'm hoping for a Liberal minority propped up by NDP. Get better left-wing policies that way.

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Federal parties being warned of efforts by 6 foreign countries to influence election



Canada's intelligence services are carefully monitoring the threat of agents of the Chinese and Indian governments working with diaspora communities here to influence the upcoming federal election, according to a number of sources who have been briefed on their activities.


Those sources — who spoke to CBC on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record — also said intelligence services are monitoring efforts by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela to influence the election campaign, while an integrated intelligence unit has been giving political parties bi-weekly briefings about foreign actors' activities in Canada.


The government and intelligence sources said one of the ways foreign countries go about pushing their agenda in Canada is by attending nomination meetings to help select candidates favourable to their causes.


Former CSIS director Ward Elcock, who also served as a deputy minister of national defence, called the tactics employed by China and India "old school" spying.


"It's not the new school of the Russians using the internet to interfere in the U.S. elections by moving public opinion in this direction or that direction. It's the old way of trying to recruit people, trying to secure influence and make connections," he said.


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Liberals announced today that if they win, they will introduce a 15-week paid parental leave for adoptive parents. Also announced the creation of a guaranteed parental leave (of one year) for parents who do not qualify under the current EI program (so self-employed, etc). Basically to ensure that all parents will have access to one year of paid leave after having a child. Also announced that parental leave will now be tax exempt. Conservatives also announced they will make parental leave tax exempt.


Parties definitely targeting parents in this election.

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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Liberals announced today that if they win, they will introduce a 15-week paid parental leave for adoptive parents. Also announced the creation of a guaranteed parental leave (of one year) for parents who do not qualify under the current EI program (so self-employed, etc). Basically to ensure that all parents will have access to one year of paid leave after having a child. Also announced that parental leave will now be tax exempt. Conservatives also announced they will make parental leave tax exempt.


Parties definitely targeting parents in this election.

Gimmie gimmie gimmie I want

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23 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

National Council of Canadian Muslims has accepted his apology:


I wonder if they are going to try and get a bunch of these types of groups to rally around Trudeau and use that as a shield. Basically, "what he did was wrong, but he is better for minorities than a Conservative government."

Canadian Muslims now know what black Virginians went through with governor and Attorney General blackface

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