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UK General Election Thread (July 4) - update (06/15): new polls indicate electoral "extinction" for the Tories


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No links yet, just social media posts. Tories are furious and are scrambling to hold a non-confidence vote for Sunak before he can speak to the King. An election doesn't need to be held until January, and it's almost certain that Labour will win now (20% ahead in the polls). I guess he thinks that it's better to do it now than risk being 30% behind by winter?

 

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2 minutes ago, Haya Dune said:

Cliffs for an ignorant American?

 

In a Constitutional Parliamentary democracy, the head of government (PM) can dissolve Parliament and call for an election at any time. The same thing can happen if the government is defeated on a matter of confidence in the house (more common if there is a minority government). Otherwise, most places (UK included) have to have an election within a 5-year period, but it can be called earlier if the government things they have a good chance of winning. Election campaign periods are much shorter, typically 30-45 days in total.

 

In this case, the Tories (conservatives) are already down 20% in the polls, and don't need to legally have an election until January. I guess Sunak thinks he has a better chance of a miracle at 20% under than if he waits and they are 30% under by winter? It's almost certain that Labour (centre-left liberal) will form government.

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The whole snap elections thing is so foreign to me. On the one hand, I love the idea of election seasons being shorter, but it also feels ripe for abuse. Then again, history seems to suggest that calling a snap election isn't exactly a risk free maneuver. I'm not that clued into UK politics, but it does seem like an odd time for an election given the polls.

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2 hours ago, TwinIon said:

The whole snap elections thing is so foreign to me. On the one hand, I love the idea of election seasons being shorter, but it also feels ripe for abuse. Then again, history seems to suggest that calling a snap election isn't exactly a risk free maneuver. I'm not that clued into UK politics, but it does seem like an odd time for an election given the polls.


UK politics is just a bit weird in general. We haven’t had a general election since 2019, but we’ve had 3 PMs in that time and their pledges are nothing in line with the original manifesto. It’s just all a bit wrong.

 

That said, looking forward to voting Labour to oust the Tories and then switch to Green, so my vote will align with my values, but if I lose it won’t mean the conservatives win.

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37 minutes ago, gamer.tv said:


UK politics is just a bit weird in general. We haven’t had a general election since 2019, but we’ve had 3 PMs in that time and their pledges are nothing in line with the original manifesto. It’s just all a bit wrong.

 

That said, looking forward to voting Labour to oust the Tories and then switch to Green, so my vote will align with my values, but if I lose it won’t mean the conservatives win.

 

What's the maximum possible time between elections before one happens automatically?

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17 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

I guess I don't get why the Conservative PM is willing to call for elections, which will inevitably cause him to lose his position and the Conservative majority in parliament. 

 

Because he feels that the electoral situation for the Tories will only deteriorate further should the elections occur at their scheduled time which must be prior to January 1, 2025.

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11 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Because he feels that the electoral situation for the Tories will only deteriorate further should the elections occur at their scheduled time which must be prior to January 1, 2025.


Yep, he was also within a few days of his own party holding a no-confidence vote, so it felt very now or never. 

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Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday.

 

One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady.

 

The senior Conservative MP told me: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. 

 

“In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”

 

 

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6 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday.

 

One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady.

 

The senior Conservative MP told me: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. 

 

“In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”

If only they brought that same energy when Brexit was voted on. 

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12 hours ago, TheBladeRoden said:

What shit are they expecting to happen in the next half year to warrant a 10 point drop?

 

They are shit brains who only look worse the more time goes on.

 

What's hilarious about this is that many backbenchers knew they were going to lose their seats, but apparently hadn't yet started looking for new jobs. So their main complaint is that due to the surprise, they will be out of jobs unexpectedly. Yeah, eat shit considering the policies you've enacted and the people you've hurt.

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On 5/22/2024 at 4:52 PM, Reputator said:

Shambolic is a cool word.

 

WWW.BELFASTLIVE.CO.UK

From press being sent to the wrong location to confusion around when interviews would take place, the writers of The Thick of It would have had plenty of material to work with

 

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As Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Northern Ireland for what the bookies and pollsters are predicting could be his farewell tour, the day couldn't have been any more of a shambles for CCHQ.

 

Having been informed by the Conservative Party that the visit would be taking place at a fourth-floor office block in the Titanic Quarter, reporters arrived to find no PM and no press conference.

 

After a flurry of frantic phone calls we were directed to a car park half a mile away from where we had been originally sent to and once again, there was no sign of the Prime Minister or his officials.

 

 

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Several more phone calls and a WhatsApp location pin later, we were met by the Secretary of State's SPAD who walked us through an industrial complex to the waterfront. There, to our surprise, the Prime Minister was having the time of his life, zipping up and down the water on an electric speedboat, under the watchful eyes of the national media.

 

Having found the correct location, you would have been forgiven for thinking that all would go to plan from here on in, but in true Thick Of It style, it was like a clown running through a minefield.

 

 

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Eventually, it was agreed that the press conference would take place first followed by the one-to-one interviews and at that point, the PM and the Secretary of State emerged from the speedboat once more to take questions.

 

When I asked the Prime Minster if given that we were in the Titanic Quarter, if he was captaining a sinking ship, it may have elicited a smirk from the Secretary of State, but in reality, the Prime Minister's answers were full of the usual bluff and bluster.

 

 

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