Comet Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: They walked back in about an hour or so ago. They became reasonable! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 Just call their fuckin bluff. Jesus Christ. I guartentee you their corporate handlers will give them "the call" soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said: Just call their fuckin bluff. Jesus Christ. I guartentee you their corporate handlers will give them "the call" soon enough. The problem is that a large proportion of the House GOP is considerably more populist (their campaigns are largely funded by small donors) than in the past and therefore NOT beholden to "corporate handlers". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: The problem is that a large proportion of the House GOP is considerably more populist (their campaigns are largely funded by small donors) than in the past and therefore NOT beholden to "corporate handlers". Honestly I'm just tired of their shit. Let the dog catch the car. If they wanna destroy the US and their place as the world's currency let them. Terrorists should not be negotiated with because they are gonna keep doing it if they are rewarded for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Air_Delivery said: Honestly I'm just tired of their shit. Let the dog catch the car. If they wanna destroy the US and their place as the world's currency let them. Terrorists should not be negotiated with because they are gonna keep doing it if they are rewarded for it. The worry would be that the avg person and independent is dumb enough to believe that it’s the fault of the democrats because “debt is out of control and they won’t make any cuts!!!1!1!1”. There’s certainly an argument for “who cares what the average dummy thinks”, though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 The worry is the very real human suffering a default would cause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 31 minutes ago, TUFKAK said: The worry is the very real human suffering a default would cause. Yes, I was talking only in terms of political fall out which is obviously very meaningless by comparison. Default under Biden is more likely to put Biden/Dems at blame, and potentially gives Trump a leg up going into next year. EDIT: when this was going on under Obama and one of the entities that gives credit scores lowered the USA’s I happened to be overseas for work - all the newscasts there were blaming republicans and the GOP, but here in the USA every news entity was “bOtH sIdEs” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 35 minutes ago, Spork3245 said: Yes, I was talking only in terms of political fall out which is obviously very meaningless by comparison. Default under Biden is more likely to put Biden/Dems at blame, and potentially gives Trump a leg up going into next year. EDIT: when this was going on under Obama and one of the entities that gives credit scores lowered the USA’s I happened to be overseas for work - all the newscasts there were blaming republicans and the GOP, but here in the USA every news entity was “bOtH sIdEs” Americans get the country they deserve unfortunately it impacts the rest of the world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 I'm fairly certain that today will be the day that we finally see the market "capitulating" (or at least the start of it) to the reality of default. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 46 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: I'm fairly certain that today will be the day that we finally see the market "capitulating" (or at least the start of it) to the reality of default. I saw a take recently that the cycle on this is the debt ceiling negotiations grind on while the market assumes they'll figure it out, then the market finally tanks worrying it won't happen, then they finally reach an agreement when they see the market tanking. So if that take is right, if the market tanks, better today than May 31. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Could democrats agree to give McCarthy enough votes to support him if a MAGA chud calls a snap vote? If would remove the leverage they have over him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Just now, Air_Delivery said: Could democrats agree to give McCarthy enough votes to support him if a MAGA chud calls a snap vote? If would remove the leverage they have over him. Sure - there's nothing actually preventing that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Centrist Dems are plotting a save-McCarthy strategy for the debt fight - POLITICO WWW.POLITICO.COM If the speaker cuts a deal that alienates conservatives, some Democrats are willing to help save his gavel. Guess its already been talked about Seems to me this is the way to go if they aren't gonna go 14th amendment. Agree to some minor things they want while getting them to concede some of Trump's tax cuts and protect him from the chuds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Today wasn't the "market capitulation" that I was "hoping" for. Not even remotely close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 YOLO the 14th Amendment. Come on Biden - Don't be a pansy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: YOLO the 14th Amendment. Come on Biden - Don't be a pansy. That's an absolute non-starter as far as I'm concerned. Who the hell is going to buy Treasury securities issued under such a legally dubious proposition? Furthermore, those bonds would have to be issued with a practically sky-high interest rate due to their inherent "risk premium". The better option if push comes to shove would be to sell some of the gold reserves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: That's an absolute non-starter as far as I'm concerned. Who the hell is going to buy Treasury securities issued under such a legally dubious proposition? Furthermore, those bonds would have to be issued with a practically sky-high interest rate due to their inherent "risk premium". The better option if push comes to shove would be to sell some of the gold reserves. Did I stutter when I said YOLO? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Not really an issue for the current ceiling fight, but Treasury should have been issuing 100 year bonds throughout the Biden presidency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Today wasn't the "market capitulation" that I was "hoping" for. Not even remotely close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Fitch has placed the US credit rating on a "negative" watch. Fitch ratings place USA on rating watch negative | Forexlive WWW.FOREXLIVE.COM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 The market doesn’t seem to be pricing in the actual risk of default. It seems to be assuming that this is the same story as each other time the last few years. I think the risk is notably higher here with divided government, the thin margins in the house, and the number of crazies increasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Massdriver said: The market doesn’t seem to be pricing in the actual risk of default. It seems to be assuming that this is the same story as each other time the last few years. I think the risk is notably higher here with divided government, the thin margins in the house, and the number of crazies increasing. The stock market isn't (yet), but the bond market does appear to be pricing in a risk premium on the short-term T-bills. Debt-ceiling angst drives Treasury bill yields above 7% WWW.MARKETWATCH.COM Uncertainty on whether a debt-ceiling resolution can come together pushes yields on Treasury bills maturing in the first eight days of June above 7%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Eh, there was a pretty decent drop on Tuesday so yesterday was more of a breathing period after SPY went down about 10 points. NVDA beat the ever loving shit out of their expected earnings last night which sent it up over 25% and is propping a lot of other tech + SPY up right now. If there’s going to be a downward fear-based reaction I’d expect it late today or throughout tomorrow going into a 3-day weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 15 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: That's an absolute non-starter as far as I'm concerned. Who the hell is going to buy Treasury securities issued under such a legally dubious proposition? Furthermore, those bonds would have to be issued with a practically sky-high interest rate due to their inherent "risk premium". The better option if push comes to shove would be to sell some of the gold reserves. I definitely think this is a valid, sound perspective. However, I also think the ‘realpolitik’ perspective—that it won’t really matter, because there’s no ‘real’, resource-based impediment stopping the treasury from continuing to honor its debts and issuing more, and at the end of the day the consequences of not honoring them are too dire for its officials to let legal technicalities interfere with the process—seems fairly sound. The question is partly whether you think the people who are *really* in charge are going to allow democracy and institutionalism get in the way of holding on to power. I’m not sure they will—but I also wouldn’t *completely* rule out the possibility that they could. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 “We're always looking where we could find savings and others, but we live in a very dangerous world. I just watched the president come back from G7, watched the war in Ukraine where we have supplied them an ample amount of weaponry from America,” McCarthy said. “I would never want to weaken America, so I think the Pentagon actually has to have more resources in the process. We are willing to agree to spend up to what the president put in his budget." Good to know the military can still never have too much money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 I’m flying out today, don’t destabilize the global economy you fuckwits! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Biden is always going to be willing to compromise and work with Republicans, he’s part of the old guard where that happened all the time, and a non trivial amount of the old GOP are willing to do that in private as long as they can get their pound of flesh on cable news. Nothing about this is surprising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 If negotiation is required to stave off an economic catastrophe so be it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Allegedly they’re around $50-70b off right now. Probably gets settled tomorrow or Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 18 hours ago, Spork3245 said: Allegedly they’re around $50-70b off right now. Probably gets settled tomorrow or Tuesday. Whatever agreement is reached, there is zero doubt in my mind that it will require a significant amount of Democratic votes to offset what's sure to be a Crazy Caucus temper tantrum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 On 5/24/2023 at 3:49 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said: That's an absolute non-starter as far as I'm concerned. Who the hell is going to buy Treasury securities issued under such a legally dubious proposition? Furthermore, those bonds would have to be issued with a practically sky-high interest rate due to their inherent "risk premium". The better option if push comes to shove would be to sell some of the gold reserves. Would SCOTUS want to be the one responsible for crashing the economy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Jwheel86 said: Would SCOTUS want to be the one responsible for crashing the economy? The economy would've "crashed" before that point because it would be viewed as a "desperation" move. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 The fact of the matter is that all the half-baked "solutions" -- the "trillion dollar coin", the 14th Amendment -- are actually worse than an actual default because of the extremely dubious legal status upon which they rest which would've made any Treasury securities issued under their auspices completely untenable from a market perspective and would result in an erosion of confidence in the US government that would be significantly greater than a default itself. The only solution that is remotely feasible is the sale of the gold reserves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 7 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: The fact of the matter is that all the half-baked "solutions" -- the "trillion dollar coin", the 14th Amendment -- are actually worse than an actual default because of the extremely dubious legal status upon which they rest which would've made any Treasury securities issued under their auspices completely untenable from a market perspective and would result in an erosion of confidence in the US government that would be significantly greater than a default itself. The only solution that is remotely feasible is the sale of the gold reserves. Dumb question but then why isn't that happening? Is the answer: "because politicians are dumb" as is usually the case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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