Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[CitizenVectron]

18 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Whoever wrote this headline and article should be conscripted:

 

 

The entire thing only implies (once!) that the referendums are fake ("referendums that Kyiv and the West have denounced as a sham"), and otherwise treats the results as legitimate, and also treats the results of the 2014 Crimean referendum as legitimate. 

 

 

 

Also not a big surprise that Reuters would publish such bullshit—they have a deal with TASS, a Russian state news organization, and republish their info as a trusted source within Reuters articles. Reuters has a noticeable pro-Russian tilt as a result, compared to other western news pools/sources.

[Spork3245]

6 hours ago, Greatoneshere said:

with no training and rusted AK-47's from WWII.

FWIW, the WWII weapons some of these soldiers are being given aren’t AK-47s, as that was invented after WWII. If they’re legit being given WWII weapons like some have been saying, it’s probably SVT-40s and PPSh-41s… which is waaaaaay sadder than a rusted AK-47  

[Greatoneshere]

42 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

FWIW, the WWII weapons some of these soldiers are being given aren’t AK-47s, as that was invented after WWII. If they’re legit being given WWII weapons like some have been saying, it’s probably SVT-40s and PPSh-41s… which is waaaaaay sadder than a rusted AK-47  

 

Yeah I don't know shit about the actual weapons and stuff, thanks for the heads up. As you said, even worse!

[Air_Delivery]

I think some of the conscripts from the contested regions of Ukraine have been given Mosin–Nagants

[mclumber1]

5 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think some of the conscripts from the contested regions of Ukraine have been given Mosin–Nagants

 

To add:. The mosin natant has been in service since 1891. The mosin that I own was manufactured in 1944.

[CitizenVectron]

Another big US package incoming, including more HIMARS systems.

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

Just give them ATACMS already for gods sake. Especially with Russia attacking pipelines.

[Anathema-]

22 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Another big US package incoming

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russians who fled Kharkiv left armed grenades and mines in schools, homes, and children's beds.

 

 

[Ricofoley]

Never gonna get tired of Jeb jokes

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Reports from both the Russian and Ukrainian side around the Lyman front indicate the situation is desperate for the Russians. Ukraine has the city nearly encircled, and controls fire over the remaining two roads. They've also almost reached the city behind Lyman that the Russians would escape to. Some Russian reports indicate the troops in Lyman have effectively been given Soviet-style orders to not retreat under any condition. All in all, it seems likely that they will break and route soon, or possible be mass-captured.

 

[CitizenVectron]

This means there is now only one major road remaining to leave Lyman for the Russians:

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

So we're more than doubling the number of HIMARS systems Ukraine has by giving them 18 more, seems big.

[Air_Delivery]

9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

So we're more than doubling the number of HIMARS systems Ukraine has by giving them 18 more, seems big.

Ammo is probably more important than the number of HIMARs. 

[CitizenVectron]

27 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

So we're more than doubling the number of HIMARS systems Ukraine has by giving them 18 more, seems big.

 

Yep, big news:

 

US announces $1.1 billion more in military aid for Ukraine

NEWS.YAHOO.COM

---

The U.S. will provide an additional $1.1 billion in aid to Ukraine, with funding for about 18 more advanced rocket systems and other weapons to counter drones that Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops, the Biden administration announced Wednesday. The latest package is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which funds contracts to purchase weapons and equipment...

 

[PaladinSolo]

39 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

Ammo is probably more important than the number of HIMARs. 

I'm sure they're getting plenty of ammo if they're doubling the number of systems, going to completely break Ivan's back.

[Kal-El814]

19 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think some of the conscripts from the contested regions of Ukraine have been given Mosin–Nagants

 

I've put a lot of enemies to sleep with one of those in the Metal Gear games.

[CitizenVectron]

One of the Mariupol defenders released by Russia reunites with his dog:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 27 September 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval fr

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval from Ukrainian residents.[1] Russian officials pre-ordained and falsified the approval ratings and alleged voter participation rates for the sham referenda while coercing Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories to performatively vote for Russian annexation, as ISW has previously reported.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30. The completion of the performative referenda marks the last prerequisite for Russian President Vladimir Putin to declare the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory. The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Putin will likely make the declaration before or during an address to both houses of Russia's parliament on Friday, September 30.[2] Putin followed a similar approach when he illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014: a sham referendum, followed by a presidential decree of recognition and a treaty of accession that the Russian Federal Assembly formally approved within five days of the sham Crimean referendum. The Russian proxy leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Denis Pushilin, told Russian media on September 27 that he previously asked Putin to approve the results of the referendum before it was held and would travel to Moscow to sign an agreement.[3] The head of Russia’s proxy Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Leonid Pasechnik, announced on September 27 that the LNR will join Russia “very soon” and that he will travel to Moscow on September 27 or 28 to ask Putin in person to approve the results of the sham referenda.[4] ISW previously forecasted that Putin will annex occupied Ukrainian territory by or soon after October 1 to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in the normal autumn conscription cycle.[5]

 

Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training. A mobilized servicemember of the 1st Tank Regiment of an unspecified unit recorded a video plea stating that his unit will not receive training prior to deploying to Kherson Oblast on September 29.[6] RFE/RL’s Mark Krutov geolocated the serviceman’s surroundings to the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division’s base in Kalininets, Moscow Oblast. ISW previously reported that Russian forces have committed elements of the 147^th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division to Kherson Oblast in late August, and are likely attempting to reinforce units in the south (that have operated in Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts) in short periods with untrained, newly-mobilized men.[7] Elements of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division previously based out of Izyum asked to leave their positions on August 30 due to moral exhaustion.[8] Russian opposition outlet Mediazona also reported that mobilized men of the 237th Tank Regiment of the WMD’s 3rd Motor Rifle Division based out of Valuyki are deploying to Donbas frontlines after only one day of training.[9] ISW cannot independently verify Mediazona’s report, but the 237th Regiment also operated around Izyum since late March.[10] Mobilized men with a day or two of training are unlikely to meaningfully reinforce Russian positions affected by Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south and east.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27.
• Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
• Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) as part of the southern counter-offensive interdiction campaign, particularly disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.
• Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and continued routine air and missile strikes across southern Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are establishing checkpoints at Russia’s borders to forcibly mobilize Russian men who are seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country.
• Russian officials are setting conditions to forcibly mobilize or conscript Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine.
• The Russian annexation of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will likely exacerbate tensions within DNR and LNR forces, who regularly mutiny when asked to fight outside the borders of their own oblasts.
• Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray - The New York Times

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

---

In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 28 September 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat.[1] Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that Ukrainian troops advanced west, north, and northeast of Lyman and are working to complete the envelopment of Russian troops in Lyman and along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in this area.[2] Russian mibloggers stated that Ukrainian troops are threatening Russian positions and lines of communication that support the Lyman grouping. The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

 

Russian military leadership has failed to set information conditions for potentially imminent Russian defeat in Lyman.  The Russian Ministry of Defense has not addressed current Russian losses around Lyman or prepared for the collapse of this sector of the frontline, which will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale. Russian military authorities previously failed to set sufficient information conditions for Russian losses following the first stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast, devastating morale and leading to panic among Russian forces across the Eastern axis. The subsequent ire of the Russian nationalist information space likely played a role in driving the Kremlin to order partial mobilization in the days following Ukraine’s initial sweeping counteroffensive in a haphazard attempt to reinforce Russian lines. Future Ukrainian gains around critical areas in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast may drive additional wedges between Russian nationalists and military leadership, and between Russian forces and their superiors.

 

The Kremlin could temporarily postpone announcing the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for some kind of annexation announcement. ISW forecasted on September 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30 in his planned address to both houses of the Russian parliament.[3] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on September 28 that Russia will “fulfill the aspirations of the residents of the LNR, DNR, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to be together with Russia” in the “near future.”[4] However, Russian State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced on September 28 that the State Duma should hold its accession sessions to approve the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on October 3 and 4.[5] Latvian-based Russian-language opposition outlet Meduza quoted Kremlin sources on September 28 who claimed that the Kremlin decided ”not to rush things.” Those sources told Meduza that ”the PR effect from [annexation] will be almost zero” due to broad dissatisfaction with partial mobilization in Russia.[6] Meduza reported that the Kremlin conducted a dissatisfactory closed public opinion poll that demonstrated broad Russian discontent and may be attempting to rectify public unhappiness with mobilization before announcing annexation. 

 

Russian-appointed occupation administration leaders of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts each shared an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin by September 28, asking Putin to recognize their sham referenda and welcome them to Russia.[7] The Russian occupation leaders of each oblast will likely meet with Putin in the coming days to present their requests. Putin could announce those performative accession negotiations, rather than final annexation, in his September 30 speech.

 

Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that newly-mobilized Russian men arrived to reinforce elements of the 1^st Tank Regiment of the 2^nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1^st Guards Tank Army in unspecified areas of Ukraine with no training at all.[8] Social media footage from September 27 shows a Russian soldier mobilized into the 1^st Tank Regiment explaining that he will be sent to fight in Kherson Oblast within two days without any basic training, as ISW reported yesterday.[9] The 1^st Guards Tank Army was considered Russia’s premier mechanized force prior to February 24, and that fact that its elements are being reinforced with poorly disciplined, untrained men is consistent with ISW’s previous assessments that even Russia’s most elite units have sustained substantial losses in Ukraine and are therefore increasingly degraded.[10] The addition of newly mobilized forces to elements of the 1^st Guards Tank Army is unlikely to lend these units any decisive combat power.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.
• The Kremlin could temporarily postpone announcing the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for some kind of annexation announcement.
• Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued to make significant gains around Lyman on September 28, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna-Kolodiazi arc and from the southeast around Yampil.
• Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian actions in Kherson Oblast on September 28 but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions along the Southern Axis.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian military recruitment officials are openly contradicting the Kremlin’s publicly-stated guidelines for mobilization to meet quota requirements even as Kremlin propaganda is attempting to change the public perception of partial mobilization.
• Russian authorities are beginning to restrict movement of Russian citizens into Russian border regions to cope with hundreds of thousands of Russian men attempting to flee the country.

 

 

[Jason]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[CitizenVectron]

6 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

It will be interesting to see Putin declare Donetsk/Luhansk as part of Russia tomorrow...only to then have Ukraine immediately take back Lyman.

[LazyPiranha]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Some of the mobiks (mobilized men) in Russia are being dumped at abandoned bases with no running water or power, and there are no officers there to tell them what to do or where to go:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russian millbloggers now believe that Lyman is completely cut off:

 

 

Potentially thousands of Russian troops now unable to retreat.

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russia continues to shell and rocket attack the city of Dnipro indiscriminately. It's a city of one million.

 

 

[Kal-El814]

We’re at the phase of the war where software engineers I’ve worked with at external partners and clients are being conscripted into the Russian army. Not for engineering. And all of these people work for companies where 95%+ of their external colleagues are from the west. Probably some of the least likely people to be invested in shooting at Ukrainians. What a world. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Latest video from Kings & General covering the Kharkiv Counter-Offensive (September 1-15):