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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president


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7 hours ago, MarSolo said:

I don’t like Rogan, but his endorsement of Bernie is one of the best things that could happen to Sanders, as he does have that alt-right following and these clowns would register as Dems to vote for him to “own the libs”. 

Kind of makes you wonder how some Trump voters would actually react to Trump Vs. Sanders.  Do they vote Trump to own the libs or vote Sanders to own the establishment & stick it to the Clinton's?

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I’ve come around on Bernie...I still fucking hate his online following, and I think Warren would be the better President, but goddamn that Overton window shift would be incredible. And the idea of an ‘Organizer in Chief’ actually inspires a modicum of hope that the balance of political power may be able to shift. 

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4 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Imagine a Bernie/Warren administration where Bernie is out-and-about or utilizing the bully pulpit and Warren translates his ideas into functional policy proposals. 

Anyone who thinks Warren won't be a big part of a Bernie admin isn't paying attention.

 

His campaign looked into her being both VP and treasury secretary

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9 hours ago, Chris- said:

I’ve come around on Bernie...I still fucking hate his online following, and I think Warren would be the better President, but goddamn that Overton window shift would be incredible. And the idea of an ‘Organizer in Chief’ actually inspires a modicum of hope that the balance of political power may be able to shift. 

Focus on the person running & the issues they're running on & stop caring so much about what people are fighting about on social media, it's just a bunch of noise & a waste of time. 

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41 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Does the caucus system make it more difficult to poll?

Yes because it's a bunch of people hanging out in a gym trying to pull groups to their side.  Then if you don't get a certain #of people in your group to meet the threshold you are forced to pick another group & the tug of war begins again.  It's absolutely bonkers & comes down to who can turnout the most for their pep rally.

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3 minutes ago, baconbits said:

Yes because it's a bunch of people hanging out in a gym trying to pull groups to their side.  Then if you don't get a certain #of people in your group to meet the threshold you are forced to pick another group & the tug of war begins again.  It's absolutely bonkers & comes down to who can turnout the most for their pep rally.

This would be my assumption just from reading descriptions. I guess that may be why things like “second choice” matter more in caucuses.

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1 minute ago, sblfilms said:

This would be my assumption just from reading descriptions. I guess that may be why things like “second choice” matter more in caucuses.

That's a good point, I didn't think to connect that together.  We should also keep in mind that there are a LOT of undecided voters out there in these polls, ranging between 10-20% (and sometimes pushing 30% but it has tightened up a bit since).  Those people will be swayed at these caucuses by whoever has the bigger group.  2016 got a little heated during these caucuses with supporters & I bet it's going to be even more elevated this time around.  Should be fun...

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29 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

This would be my assumption just from reading descriptions. I guess that may be why things like “second choice” matter more in caucuses.

 

Second choice only matters if your candidate gets less than 15%. Warren is around that mark, so her underperforming by a few % could give big gains to Bernie. Or the opposite.

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1 hour ago, Jose said:

Let's not forget the DMR bump is supposedly huge. Curious to see new polls that reflect it.

It's really not that special,

                                                        polling before     actual vote        change

1988 D Paul Simon 16.7% 26.7% 10.0
1988 R Bob Dole 43.0 37.4 -5.6
1996 R Bob Dole 34.0 26.3 -7.7
2000 D Bill Bradley 30.6 36.6 6.0
2000 R George W. Bush 46.1 41.0 -5.1
2004 D John Edwards 11.0 32.6 21.6
2008 D Hillary Clinton 27.8 30.4 2.6
2008 R John McCain 6.1 13.1 7.0
2012 R Mitt Romney 19.5 24.5 5.0
2016 D Hillary Clinton 47.7 49.8 2.1
2016 R Marco Rubio

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-will-the-des-moines-registers-endorsement-help-warren-in-iowa/

 

Not to say this won't boost Warren, I just wouldn't be out there calling this "huge"

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4 hours ago, baconbits said:

It's really not that special,

                                                        polling before     actual vote        change

1988 D Paul Simon 16.7% 26.7% 10.0
1988 R Bob Dole 43.0 37.4 -5.6
1996 R Bob Dole 34.0 26.3 -7.7
2000 D Bill Bradley 30.6 36.6 6.0
2000 R George W. Bush 46.1 41.0 -5.1
2004 D John Edwards 11.0 32.6 21.6
2008 D Hillary Clinton 27.8 30.4 2.6
2008 R John McCain 6.1 13.1 7.0
2012 R Mitt Romney 19.5 24.5 5.0
2016 D Hillary Clinton 47.7 49.8 2.1
2016 R Marco Rubio

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-will-the-des-moines-registers-endorsement-help-warren-in-iowa/

 

Not to say this won't boost Warren, I just wouldn't be out there calling this "huge"

 

4 points would be huge to me.

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The parameters of this year are similar to 2008 with a strong front runner and second but still a mixed field with an endorsement going to one of the lower end of the top, then Edwards now Warren. An endorsement like that could chew into the large undecided vote pool and switch or solidify second choices. Edwards vaulted past two others to finish third and that was enough to make him a serious contender and talked about as much as the surprise winner.

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