MarSolo Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 I don’t deny this election will be hard for Biden. That said, Trump’s base has only gotten smaller since 2020. Most of his supporters either died in the pandemic or are sitting in jail for January 6th. You ever notice how they don’t show the crowds at his rallies anymore? Also, women HATE him. Dobbs really screwed him in the long run, and the Biden campaign has been running some GREAT ads regarding this, especially on streaming apps and YouTube. The Trump ads I’ve seen during baseball games are the same shit I see from republicans “Biden loves open borders blah blah blah”. And his constant open mic moments where he’s straight up telling rich people he’s giving them tax cuts ain’t a good look either. I think we’re underestimating women to our own peril. And these college protests? Meh. These are small potatoes compared to the protests regarding police brutality in 2020 that right wingers like to claim “burned down the cities”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 5 hours ago, TheBladeRoden said: Trump is definitely benefitting from the armchair coach effect. Pretty easy to say "it wouldn't have happened if I were in charge" or "I would have solved it in 24 hours" from where he's sitting. And I guess half of everyone's buying it. I thought Latinos were some of the biggest pro-lifers around? Old white men are the biggest pro-lifers around, but being pro-life also doesn't mean you want to outright ban life saving care, but in general every demographic has a majority that supports abortion being legal in some way, whether its age, race, education ect... its a massive L for the GOP, and Trump knows it so hes taken the off ramp saying that he only believes states should decide. Anyways, who knows how Trump's other trial plays into all this if at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyHell Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 On 5/11/2024 at 12:04 PM, MarSolo said: I don’t deny this election will be hard for Biden. That said, Trump’s base has only gotten smaller since 2020. Most of his supporters either died in the pandemic or are sitting in jail for January 6th. You ever notice how they don’t show the crowds at his rallies anymore? Also, women HATE him. Dobbs really screwed him in the long run, and the Biden campaign has been running some GREAT ads regarding this, especially on streaming apps and YouTube. The Trump ads I’ve seen during baseball games are the same shit I see from republicans “Biden loves open borders blah blah blah”. And his constant open mic moments where he’s straight up telling rich people he’s giving them tax cuts ain’t a good look either. I think we’re underestimating women to our own peril. And these college protests? Meh. These are small potatoes compared to the protests regarding police brutality in 2020 that right wingers like to claim “burned down the cities”. I think Biden’s base shrank even more than Trump’s, personally. the idea that all of Trump’s supporters died is a bit ridiculous, and most people just don’t care about Covid anymore. Again, it’s things like Biden siding with Israel. So many Muslims will not vote, or vote 3rd party because they can’t support them, while Jews are moving towards the right. For Republicans it’s all gain, because they were never getting the Muslim vote to begin with. Then there’s young people. The university crowd Biden basically said were violent antisemites for protesting (there was almost no violence in the pro Palestine protests). Biden barely won by 80k votes at a time when Trump was at his most hated. There is just nothing to show Biden doing well with any important demographic. Of course he’s going to clean up in blue states, but swing states are looking really bad. people vote on feels, and right now people are stretched thin. Credit card debt is sky high again, I was really betting on the grease in his veins finally hardening and ending MAGA for good, but it’s not seeming likely yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Today in 2016 Clinton was up 10% in Michigan, 7% in PA, and 11% in WI, and 3 in NC. She lost all these states. In 2020 polling on this day in these states had him with half the lead of Clinton and Biden won all of these states(minus nc, whatever), though it was close. Polling means less than nothing right now I really wish people would understand that. It’s all vibes right now and people aren’t really tuned in. To say nothing of the tens of millions of dollars going towards legal defense and not campaigning and organization across swing states if it’s down to the margins as many suspect I’d much rather be Biden than Trump. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Today in 2016 Clinton was up 10% in Michigan, 7% in PA, and 11% in WI, and 3 in NC. She lost all these states. In 2020 polling on this day in these states had him with half the lead of Clinton and Biden won all of these states(minus nc, whatever), though it was close. Polling means less than nothing right now I really wish people would understand that. It’s all vibes right now and people aren’t really tuned in. To say nothing of the tens of millions of dollars going towards legal defense and not campaigning and organization across swing states if it’s down to the margins as many suspect I’d much rather be Biden than Trump. What was the polling in 2020 around this time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haya Dune Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 lmao there's a Trafalgar poll that has Trump +5 in NJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, Jason said: lmao there's a Trafalgar poll that has Trump +5 in NJ Well, yeah, you saw the crowd on Saturday, depending on if you saw the actual crowd or The Rolling Stones in Brazil photo that Roger Stone shared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 4 hours ago, MarSolo said: What was the polling in 2020 around this time? WI Biden +2.7% MI Biden +6% PA Biden +5% nc Trump +0.3% all this per rcp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Remember when everyone was forecasting a red wave in 2022, but it turned out to be little more than a kiddie pool? Granted, that was shortly after Roe got overturned, but still. I don't see people becoming that complacent and just voting Trump because fuck it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 As I've said before, Trump cost the GOP the 2022 midterms by making it a referendum on himself when he wasn't even on the ballot. I don't see any reason to think people will react better to him this time around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, Jason said: As I've said before, Trump cost the GOP the 2022 midterms by making it a referendum on himself when he wasn't even on the ballot. I don't see any reason to think people will react better to him this time around. The broader issue is the constant risk to American institutions writ large as it's become clear that Trump and Trumpism aside, there's a non-trivial contingent of the US voting public that is fine with authoritarianism as long as its in their short term benefit (or even perceived benefit, as we saw with COVID restrictions) and there are plenty of institutions at risk even if Trump isn't elected. Two people straight up lied under oath, got lifetime SCOTUS appointments, and the consequences of that are some potentially short term local election losses for Republicans. The scales just aren't balanced here especially when the safeguards are norms that a significant number of elected and appointed officials are happy to ignore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 14 hours ago, BloodyHell said: I think Biden’s base shrank even more than Trump’s, personally. the idea that all of Trump’s supporters died is a bit ridiculous, and most people just don’t care about Covid anymore. Again, it’s things like Biden siding with Israel. So many Muslims will not vote, or vote 3rd party because they can’t support them, while Jews are moving towards the right. For Republicans it’s all gain, because they were never getting the Muslim vote to begin with. Then there’s young people. The university crowd Biden basically said were violent antisemites for protesting (there was almost no violence in the pro Palestine protests). I know Fox News is trying to sell the narrative of Democratic disunity but actual results from the primaries shows Biden hold his coalition together while Trump has 150k people voting for the Nikki in key swing states. He’s gonna need the Nikki voter his pissing off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 9 minutes ago, outsida said: I know Fox News is trying to sell the narrative of Democratic disunity but actual results from the primaries shows Biden hold his coalition together while Trump has 150k people voting for the Nikki in key swing states. He’s gonna need the Nikki voter his pissing off. The real key thing here, I’ll repeat, is that she dropped out two months ago and people are still showing up to put her name down as a middle finger to Trump. Guaranteed they won’t vote for him come November? No, but that’s not an insignificant symbol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyHell Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 On 5/13/2024 at 11:35 PM, outsida said: I know Fox News is trying to sell the narrative of Democratic disunity but actual results from the primaries shows Biden hold his coalition together while Trump has 150k people voting for the Nikki in key swing states. He’s gonna need the Nikki voter his pissing off. Biden has just as many voting “uncommitted”. pretending Biden is doing well is cope, I think. Swing states matter, not national polling. People keep pretending Biden cleaned up in 2020, but where it matters that just isn’t coming true. He’s losing poll after poll in multiple swing states. and 2022 wasn’t abnormal. Trump supported candidates do badly while Trump personally over performs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyHell Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 On 5/13/2024 at 11:46 PM, GeneticBlueprint said: The real key thing here, I’ll repeat, is that she dropped out two months ago and people are still showing up to put her name down as a middle finger to Trump. Guaranteed they won’t vote for him come November? No, but that’s not an insignificant symbol. Yes, and where are those Haley votes coming from? Open primary states. Democrats voting Haley because they can. a large percentage of Haley primary voters also said they’d vote Biden over Haley, because Haley never had and real movement behind her aside from billionaire donors. Ill take Haley or Biden over Trump any day, I'm just not blind to what’s happening. It doesn’t matter how much he racks up in blue states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just now, BloodyHell said: Open primary states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 10 minutes ago, BloodyHell said: Yes, and where are those Haley votes coming from? Open primary states. Someone hasn't been paying attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 5 minutes ago, Reputator said: Someone hasn't been paying attention. apoced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just gonna get the whole "Trump outperforms his party!" out of the way right now, Trump is leading Biden but he is in no way outperforming his party when hes sitting 2.5 points lower than the generic ballot GOPer. Generic ballot numbers are also evidence Biden has a bigger chance of gaining once RFK Jr's support inevitably begins to fade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, BloodyHell said: Yes, and where are those Haley votes coming from? Open primary states. Democrats voting Haley because they can. a large percentage of Haley primary voters also said they’d vote Biden over Haley, because Haley never had and real movement behind her aside from billionaire donors. Ill take Haley or Biden over Trump any day, I'm just not blind to what’s happening. It doesn’t matter how much he racks up in blue states. Indiana and Pennsylvania aren't open primary states. Nor are they blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Pot kettle etc here but it’s wild to see someone so confident yet so often wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 “I’d support Haley over Trump or Biden” lmao tell me politics mean nothing to you without telling me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: “I’d support Haley over Trump or Biden” lmao tell me politics mean nothing to you without telling me Unless he edited his post it was actually "Ill take Haley or Biden over Trump any day". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 1 hour ago, GeneticBlueprint said: Indiana and Pennsylvania aren't open primary states. Nor are they blue. We call it “Pennsyltucky” for a reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 2 hours ago, Jason said: Unless he edited his post it was actually "I’ll take Haley or Biden over Trump any day". 2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Pot kettle etc here but it’s wild to see someone so confident yet so often wrong 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link200 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Honestly I'll be more interested in polls the closer we get to the election. IMO Trump voters tend to be more likely to be active further away from an election due to their cult like mentality. These people have been buying Trump political crap (flags, shirts, etc) since Biden took office. Last summer I still saw people with boats full of trump crap on one of the lakes nearby along with homes completely kit with Trump crap on the shore. Trump is what these people have centered their entire personality around. It really is sad to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nokra Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 16 minutes ago, Link200 said: Honestly I'll be more interested in polls the closer we get to the election. IMO Trump voters tend to be more likely to be active further away from an election due to their cult like mentality. These people have been buying Trump political crap (flags, shirts, etc) since Biden took office. Last summer I still saw people with boats full of trump crap on one of the lakes nearby along with homes completely kit with Trump crap on the shore. Trump is what these people have centered their entire personality around. It really is sad to see. The only thing that concerns me about current polling is just that, intuitively, it feels (which admittedly is essentially useless for prediction) like very few people are going to have their mind changed by anything either Trump or Biden says or does between now and the election. Both have shown the world exactly who they are, and if anyone is undecided at this point, I strongly question their intelligence, frankly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenTongue Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 On 5/16/2024 at 1:23 PM, BloodyHell said: Yes, and where are those Haley votes coming from? Open primary states. Democrats voting Haley because they can. a large percentage of Haley primary voters also said they’d vote Biden over Haley, because Haley never had and real movement behind her aside from billionaire donors. Ill take Haley or Biden over Trump any day, I'm just not blind to what’s happening. It doesn’t matter how much he racks up in blue states. Is everything you post extracted directly from your ass? Honestly - It would take all of about 30 seconds to see that it isn’t just open primary states voting Haley over Trump. Feel free to disregard this the way you do whenever someone calls you out on your BS, but for the sake of personal growth, I’d challenge you to look beyond your own feels when attempting to discuss issues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 Even More Classified Documents Found After Mar-A-Lago Raid, In Trump’s Bedroom WWW.HUFFPOST.COM Trump’s attorneys found more classified files months after the FBI searched the Florida club, according to newly unsealed documents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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