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Update: US economy "unexpectedly" contracts by 1.4% (annualized) in 1Q 2022


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WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

The U.S. economy grew last year at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan’s presidency, bouncing back with resilience from 2020′s brief but devastating coronavirus recession

 

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew last year at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan’s presidency, bouncing back with resilience from 2020’s brief but devastating coronavirus recession.

 

The nation’s gross domestic product — its total output of goods and services — expanded 5.7% in 2021. It was the strongest calendar-year growth since a 7.2% surge in 1984 after a previous recession. The economy ended the year by growing at a solid 6.9% annual pace from October through December, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

 

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But super-low interest rates, huge infusions of government aid — including $1,400 checks to most households — and, eventually, the widespread rollout of vaccines revived the economy. Many consumers regained the confidence and financial wherewithal to go out and spend again.

 

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1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

:cool:
 

the giving and receiving economy

 

I guess you can say

 

that 6.9%

 

is quite

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler
Spoiler
Spoiler
Spoiler
Spoiler

good.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jason said:

Earlier I saw this being reported as 1.425% quarterly growth despite the fact that these numbers are pretty much always annualized in reporting, almost like the media is desperate to make the Biden Bust narrative happen. 

 

It was the NYT.

 

gdp-annual-change-promo-1643242437535-fa
WWW.NYTIMES.COM

The overall 2021 increase in the gross domestic product was the biggest in decades as the pandemic’s effects eased, though challenges persist.

 

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Wasn't sure where to post this, but this is an economic thread, so:

 

20220127170116-61f31a8078c3087d959bbaf8j
WWW.STCATHARINESSTANDARD.CA

WHITBY, Ont. - The union representing Sobeys warehouse workers in Ontario says they have ratified a four-year contract with “massive wage increases.”

 

19.5% wage increase over four years for the warehouse union.

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  • 2 months later...

This genuinely came as surprise to me:

 

107047748-2022-04-18T114417Z_808428478_R
WWW.CNBC.COM

Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined 1.4% in the first quarter, an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984.

 

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Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

 

The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter. GDP measures the output of goods and services in the U.S. for the three-month period.

 

A plethora of factors conspired to weigh against growth during the first three months of 2022, which fell off a cliff following the 6.9% gain to close out last year.

 

“In retrospect, this could be seen as a pivotal report,” said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. “It reminds us of the reality that growth has been great, but things are changing and they won’t be that great going forward.”

 

 

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  • Commissar SFLUFAN changed the title to Update: US economy "unexpectedly" contracts by 1.4% (annualized) in 1Q 2022
18 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

This genuinely came as surprise to me:

 

107047748-2022-04-18T114417Z_808428478_R
WWW.CNBC.COM

Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined 1.4% in the first quarter, an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984.

 

 

That Fed meeting next week is going to be even more interesting now!

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12 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

It definitely adds a degree of uncertainly as to the exact magnitude of the rate hike thought I doubt that it will cause them to not execute one at all.

I really have no idea now what the hell they will do. Bostic from the Atlanta Fed has been saying the Fed needs to be cautious for a few weeks and now that this drops it appears he may have been right. They could very well halt a rate hike this month and just continue to reduce the balance sheet. 
 

 

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54 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

I really have no idea now what the hell they will do. Bostic from the Atlanta Fed has been saying the Fed needs to be cautious for a few weeks and now that this drops it appears he may have been right. They could very well halt a rate hike this month and just continue to reduce the balance sheet.

 

The minutes from the meeting should be an entertaining read at the very least!

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4 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Supply chain issues have to he part of this.

 

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A plethora of factors conspired to weigh against growth during the first three months of 2022, which fell off a cliff following the 6.9% gain to close out last year.

 

Rising Covid omicron infections to start the year hampered activity across the board, while inflation surging at a level not seen since the early 1980s and the Russian invasion of Ukraine also contributed to the economic stasis.

 

Prices increased sharply during the quarter, with the GDP price index deflator rising 8%, following a 7.1% jump in Q4.

 

The decline in growth came due to a deceleration in private inventory investment, which helped propel growth in the back half of 2021. Other restraints came from exports and government spending across state, federal and local governments, as well as rising imports.


“This is noise; not signal. The economy is not falling into recession,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Net trade has been hammered by a surge in imports, especially of consumer goods, as wholesalers and retailers have sought to rebuild inventory. This cannot persist much longer, and imports in due course will drop outright, and net trade will boost GDP growth in Q2 and/or Q3.”

 

 

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