Jason Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Bam Ukraine expects to get 100 Leopard 2 tanks from 12 countries, once Germany approves: Senior Ukrainian official - ABC News ABCNEWS.GO.COM Twelve countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 Leopard 2 tanks if the German government gives its consent, a senior Ukrainian official told ABC News. If Germany says no...I honestly hope they all agree to send them anyway in exchange for American backfill tanks. If Germany won't let them use their tanks in combat, then they shouldn't be buying from Germany. The ironic part is they're worried other countries using American tanks will reduce their influence, yet they're burning all the influence by being obstinate idiots about this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Jason said: yet they're burning all the influence by being obstinate idiots about this. Whites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Nine years ago in Kyiv as the Ukrainian people for their democracy: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 ISW analysis for 23 January 2023: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. U Quote Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky stated on January 20 that the spring and early summer of 2023 will be decisive in the war and confirmed that the GUR has observed indicators that Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a “big offensive” in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.[1] Skibitsky also reiterated that Russian forces are unlikely to launch an attack from Belarus or in southern Ukraine.[2] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort (of either offensive or defensive nature) in Luhansk Oblast and observed a redeployment of conventional forces such as Airborne (VDV) elements to the Svatove-Kreminna axis after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson Oblast.[3] ISW also maintains that it is highly unlikely that Russian forces are planning to relaunch a new offensive on northern Ukraine from the direction of Belarus.[4] Skibitsky’s assessments largely support ISW’s running forecasts of Russian intentions in the first half of 2023 and underscore the continued need for Western partner support to ensure that Ukraine does not lose the initiative to a renewed Russian offensive operation. The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability. Head of the independent Russian human rights organization “Rus Sidyashchaya” (Russia Behind Bars) Olga Romanova claimed on January 23 that out of the assessed 50,000 prisoners that Wagner has recruited, only 10,000 are fighting on frontlines in Ukraine due to high casualty, surrender, and desertion rates.[5] ISW cannot independently confirm these figures, but they are very plausible considering Wagner’s model of using convicts as cannon fodder in highly attritional offensive operations.[6] The model Wagner has reportedly been using of retaining its highly trained long-serving mercenaries as leadership and Special Forces–type elements on top of a mass of untrained convicts also lends itself to high combat losses, surrenders, and desertions. The Wagner Group aim of reducing casualties among its non-convict mercenaries likely undermines its ability to retain and use effectively its large mass of convicts at scale and over time. ISW has previously reported on instances of relatives of Wagner group fighters receiving empty coffins after being told their loves ones died in Ukraine, suggesting that Wagner lacks the basic administrative and bureaucratic infrastructure to track and present its own losses, adding further credibility to the “Rus Sidyashchaya” estimate.[7] Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion. NOTE: A version of this item appeared in the Critical Threats Project (CTP)’s Iran Crisis Update.[8] Russian Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin met with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on January 23 to expand bilateral cooperation efforts.[9] Ghalibaf noted that Moscow and Tehran should strive to strengthen ties in the banking, energy, and commodity-trading sectors in the face of American sanctions, which Volodin credited for bringing the two countries closer together.[10] Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sources additionally speculated on further military cooperation efforts between Tehran and Moscow. IRGC-affiliated outlet Tasnim News published an editorial arguing that a Russo-Iranian joint production deal could allow Iran to receive Russian Mi-28 and Ka-52 attack helicopters.[11] Both Tehran and Moscow are likely looking to these agreements to mitigate the pressure of sanctions levied against them by the US. Key Takeaways Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability. Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion. Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City. Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours. Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims. The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut. The Kremlin’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures. Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems and crack down on partisan dissent in occupied areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Whoa WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine WWW.WSJ.COM Deliveries would be part of deal to enable provision of German-built Leopards Quote WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said. The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Whoa WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine WWW.WSJ.COM Deliveries would be part of deal to enable provision of German-built Leopards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 @CayceG about to die of dehydration from too much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 CNN confirms (or at least has the same sources as the WSJ) US finalizing plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine, US officials say | CNN Politics WWW.CNN.COM The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine and could make an announcement as soon as this week, according to three US officials familiar with the deliberations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Spiegel reporting Leos are heading to Ukraine: (S+) Krieg in der Ukraine: Deutschland schickt Leopard-Panzer WWW.SPIEGEL.DE Nach monatelanger Debatte hat sich Kanzler Scholz durchgerungen, Kampfpanzer an die Ukraine zu liefern. Auch die Verbündeten wollen offenbar mitziehen. Aus den USA könnten Abrams-Panzer kommen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreePi Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Tomorrow the Russian MoD will announce that they've already destroyed 20 Leopard 2s and a dozen Abrams tanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Some word that Switzerland may also allow Swiss arms to be exported to Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Some word that Switzerland may also allow Swiss arms to be exported to Ukraine. Ukraine will soon have the power of swiss army knives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 It appears the Leopards that Germany itself will be supplying will be the most-modern Leopard 2A6 variant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, CayceG said: Spiegel reporting Leos are heading to Ukraine: (S+) Krieg in der Ukraine: Deutschland schickt Leopard-Panzer WWW.SPIEGEL.DE Nach monatelanger Debatte hat sich Kanzler Scholz durchgerungen, Kampfpanzer an die Ukraine zu liefern. Auch die Verbündeten wollen offenbar mitziehen. Aus den USA könnten Abrams-Panzer kommen. CNN reporting it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 This might be the first time that the headline "Germany to send tanks into Ukraine" isn't distressing 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM The Army’s top acquisition official says production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Germany announced they would send "a company" of tanks. I don't know much about the composition of armies, but I think that's 10 Leos. The US has announced 30 Abrams: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, CayceG said: Germany announced they would send "a company" of tanks. I don't know much about the composition of armies, but I think that's 10 Leos. The US has announced 30 Abrams: In the marines a company element was minimum 12 tanks, four per platoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 So what tech tier is this war in now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said: So what tech tier is this war in now? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 I can't find another version of this video, so I am posting the twitter embed. Wade, feel free to remove if you need to, I really tried to find another version (and will replace if I can). It's a video of a Ukrainian raid in boats across the Dnipro to Nova Kakhovka, where they destroyed a military post and other targets, and then escaped: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 hours ago, CayceG said: This might be the first time that the headline "Germany to send tanks into Ukraine" isn't distressing Still distressing for the Russians, though :P 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 ^^^Was coming to say that! 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 13 hours ago, Air_Delivery said: So what tech tier is this war in now? Depends on what versions, plain M1s are kinda meh but if we still have them in working condition they'll be glad to off load, A1s seem most likely as they have the 120mm cannon and will absolutely demolish any T-series and we have a lot of them in storage, but we're still talking Cold war stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: I can't find another version of this video, so I am posting the twitter embed. Wade, feel free to remove if you need to, I really tried to find another version (and will replace if I can). It's a video of a Ukrainian raid in boats across the Dnipro to Nova Kakhovka, where they destroyed a military post and other targets, and then escaped: Riverines! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 ISW analysis for 24 January 2023: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 that US President Joe Biden is preparing to send "a significant number" of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and that the Quote Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 that US President Joe Biden is preparing to send "a significant number" of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and that the White House may announce the delivery as soon as January 25.[1] German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on January 24 that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to deliver at least one tank company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine in an unspecified time frame.[2] Poland likely will send Ukraine Leopard 2 tanks following Germany’s decision. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak stated on January 24 that Poland formally requested Germany grant permission to transfer Poland’s Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Berlin would not interfere if Poland wanted to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.[3] British officials confirmed on January 16 that the United Kingdom would send Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.[4] French President Emmanuel Macron stated he would not rule out the possibility of France sending Ukraine Leclerc tanks on January 22.[5] Western states’ provision of main battle tanks to Ukraine will help enable Ukraine to conduct mechanized warfare to defeat the Russian military and liberate Ukrainian territory. ISW previously assessed that the West has contributed to Ukraine’s inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations.[6] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny previously emphasized in December 2022 that Ukraine needs 300 main battle tanks (among other weapon systems) to enable Ukrainian counteroffensives.[7] Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov continued efforts to portray himself and the traditional Russian military command structure as the true defenders of Russia. Gerasimov reiterated on January 23 that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s plan to develop Russian forces’ ability to respond to "new threats to the military security" of Russia, and Gerasimov accused Ukraine and NATO states of aiming to threaten Russia.[8] Gerasimov invoked the Russian General Staff’s historical role in guiding and protecting Russia through several military crises, including the Great Patriotic War (World War II). Gerasimov claimed that "modern Russia has never known such a level and intensity of hostilities" and heavily implied that the current war in Ukraine presents the greatest threat to Russia since the Great Patriotic War, therefore necessitating the leadership and protection of the Russian General Staff under Gerasimov’s leadership. Gerasimov’s framing of the war and the General Staff’s ongoing revitalization efforts within the historical context of the Great Patriotic War is part of the continued campaign to counter the growing power and influence of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, and their respective paramilitary structures, all of which threaten Gerasimov and the Russian General Staff as ISW has previously reported.[9] It also continues Putin’s efforts to reframe the current struggle as an effort like the Great Patriotic War to justify protracted demands for sacrifice and mobilization by the Russian people.[10] Russian outlet RBK claimed on January 23 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as the Southern Military District (SMD) commander and Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov as the Western Military District (WMD) commander.[11] RBK claimed that Nikiforov replaced Kuzovlev as WMD commander after Kuzovlev held the position from December 13, 2022, to January 23, 2023.[12] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appointed Kuzovlev WMD Commander in late October of 2022.[13] RBK claimed that the Russian MoD had appointed Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov as WMD commander in October of 2022, however.[14] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 26, 2022, that Nikiforov left his position as Chief of Staff of the Eastern Military District (EMD) to replace Kuzovlev as a part of the internal power struggles between Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov.[15] Nikiforov previously commanded Wagner Group fighters in Ukraine as commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army in 2014 and may have connections to Prigozhin.[16] The conflicting reporting on the WMD and SMD command suggests that military district command dynamics remain opaque, indicating that the Russian military is struggling to institute sound command structures and maintain traditional command. Key Takeaways A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov continued efforts to portray himself and the traditional Russian military command structure as the true defenders of Russia. Russian outlet RBK claimed on January 23 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as the Southern Military District (SMD) commander and Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov as the Western Military District (WMD) commander. Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna. Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Russian forces made marginal territorial gains near Bakhmut. Russian sources claimed, likely to distract from the lack of progress in Bakhmut, that Russian forces launched an offensive around Vuhledar. Russian forces likely continued to conduct limited and localized ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast but likely did not make territorial gains, further undermining Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov’s prior territorial claims. Ukrainian special forces conducted a raid across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on January 23-24. Russian authorities are likely continuing efforts to mobilize ethnic minorities to fight in Ukraine. Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) is reportedly increasing the production of drones and loitering munitions. Ukrainian partisans targeted a member of the Zaporizhia occupation administration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks like F-16s are on the table, now, and are being negotiated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Quote Lockheed Martin has said it stands ready to meet demand for its F-16 aircraft as some of Ukraine’s closest European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv. The US-German decision to send tanks to Ukraine has reignited discussions, which European defence officials cautioned were at an early stage. Frank St. John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, the largest US defence contractor, told the FT that there was “a lot of conversation about third party transfer of F-16s” — whereby countries would re-export their US jets to Ukraine to defend its airspace. Lockheed is not directly involved in talks regarding the potential delivery of military aircraft to Kyiv. However, St. John said the company was “going to be ramping production on F-16s in Greenville [South Carolina] to get to the place where we will be able to backfill pretty capably any countries that choose to do third party transfers to help with the current conflict”. The White House has rebuffed Ukrainian appeals for modern fighter jets such as the F-16 out of fear they could be used to strike Russian territory. The US government must approve sales, or transfers to third countries, of American-made fighter jets, which means European countries would need political support from the Biden administration. “Along with our international allies and partners, we are in regular communication with the Ukrainians on their needs and requests,” a US defence official said. “At this time, we have nothing to announce regarding F-16s.” German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out sending jets to Ukraine. “I made clear very early on that we wouldn’t be sending combat aircraft and I’ll say that again here,” he said on Wednesday. Germany does not fly F-16 jets. EU member states re-exporting F-16s directly to Ukraine is one of a series of options, European officials said, pointing out that the US-made jets could also be sent by western states to former Warsaw Pact countries that could then send their Soviet-designed aircraft to Kyiv. At the start of the war, Warsaw offered to send its Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets to the Ukrainian air forces, with one iteration of the proposal involving the US sending F-16s to replenish the Polish air force. The initiative was abandoned in March, after Washington deemed it too escalatory. Dutch foreign minister Wopke Hoekstra said last week that the Netherlands would consider any requests to send F-16s with “an open mind” and that there were “no taboos” on military support. The Netherlands has around 40 F-16s and is in the process of phasing them out through the purchase of more advanced F-35s. In addition to the Netherlands, seven other European Nato countries fly F-16s, including Poland, Norway and Romania. Several of Lockheed’s weapons systems have been playing key roles on the Ukrainian battlefield, including the including high mobility artillery rocket system (Himars), guided multiple launch rocket system (Gmlrs), Javelin missiles and the more recently provided Patriot missile defence system, including its accompanying PAC-3 missiles. The company has invested in their production ahead of contracts to replenish stockpiles from the US government that it is confident will come. Subscribe to read | Financial Times WWW.FT.COM News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris- Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App THREADREADERAPP.COM @ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The release of murderers who have served with the Wagner Group, including the notorious "Black Realtor" Alexander Tyutin, is causing controversy in Russia due to complaints by relatives of their vic...… Fucking insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Canada considering sending 4 Leopard tanks to Ukraine: sources | CBC News WWW.CBC.CA Canada is considering sending four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to senior sources speaking to CBC News, but no decisions have been made. CBC News is not identifying the confidential... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 I lol'd 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littleronin Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Ukraine's armored division is like a used car lot of military hardware. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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