Massdriver Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: RCP is garbage by the way, because they randomly pick and choose polls to include and exclude, and will drop high quality polls despite it being in the same timeframe, while including shit like HarrisX, which is just rasmussen. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ Tightening is shown here too, but as I mentioned it isn’t as much as I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: RCP is garbage by the way, because they randomly pick and choose polls to include and exclude, and will drop high quality polls despite it being in the same timeframe, while including shit like HarrisX, which is just rasmussen. https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, Massdriver said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ Tightening is shown here too, but as I mentioned it isn’t as much as I thought. Tightening would be where the race was at the start of June, where we are now a steady big lead for Biden, who is still just above 50% where hes been since early June, but overall its been extremely steady, like all polling has been during his entire presidency. Silver is putting a lot of weight behind whats happened in previous elections and is probably being overly cautious in his model because of it, i'm not even sure the candidates get a convention bounce this time around, cause at this point in 2016 the 2 major candidates combined weren't even breaking 85%, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 The explicit goal of the republican party is they feel they don't need to get a majority of votes or voters in order to govern. He's making explicit what has been implicit for years now. They're an anti small d democratic party, so it is inevitable that they go back to the tried and true American tradition of voter suppression. They've inherited the anti democratic norms from immediately after the civil war and reconstruction through Jim Crow, still largely based on race, but now to "own the libs" generally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 The Republican Party is the spiritual successor (and continuation of the entire idea) of the movement that the southern US deserves equal representation as the north despite having less people, money, or importance. To do that, you need to suppress the power of the north, which the movement has successfully done since the founding of the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Massdriver said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ Tightening is shown here too, but as I mentioned it isn’t as much as I thought. I wouldn't read too much into that tightening. BUT if it starts to look like beginning of August 2016 -> end of August 2016, or even worse, beginning of September 2016 -> September 25, right before the first debate, then that's one where I'd really be concerned. I don't want that feeling again this year dangit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 But I do expect tightening after the Republican Convention following the DNC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 I held an election party in 2016 (yes I know, a Canadian holding an election party for the US...)...but I don't think I'd do it again this year, even if there wasn't a pandemic. 2016 was too depressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLeon Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: I held an election party in 2016 (yes I know, a Canadian holding an election party for the US...)...but I don't think I'd do it again this year, even if there wasn't a pandemic. 2016 was too depressing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, TheLeon said: My favorite part about this skit is wondering how the hell Chappelle's character even knew these people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: I wouldn't read too much into that tightening. BUT if it starts to look like beginning of August 2016 -> end of August 2016, or even worse, beginning of September 2016 -> September 25, right before the first debate, then that's one where I'd really be concerned. I don't want that feeling again this year dangit. I'd be extremely shocked if we saw any real movement, its been 3.5 years of incredible consistency in polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 minute ago, PaladinSolo said: I'd be extremely shocked if we saw any real movement, its been 3.5 years of incredible consistency in polling. I mean.... who knows, really. We were mesmerized by a near constant floor for Trump in 2016 but it seemed like Hillary and Trump kept trading off months (Hillary had a good June/August/October, Trump had a good July/September/November). What happens at the debates, how voters react this time if Trump goes ballistic since we're unfortunately used to it, what shady shit Barr tries, and how Trump's door-to-door voter outreach impacts Democrats being safe and not doing that, I just dunno how it'll all go down. I'd much rather be in Biden's position right now, of course. I think even if Trump wins, nobody here should think it's inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 Just now, Spork3245 said: Oh man, I haven't heard the name David Alan Grier in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Spork3245 said: 13 hours ago, Jason said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: I mean.... who knows, really. We were mesmerized by a near constant floor for Trump in 2016 but it seemed like Hillary and Trump kept trading off months (Hillary had a good June/August/October, Trump had a good July/September/November). What happens at the debates, how voters react this time if Trump goes ballistic since we're unfortunately used to it, what shady shit Barr tries, and how Trump's door-to-door voter outreach impacts Democrats being safe and not doing that, I just dunno how it'll all go down. I'd much rather be in Biden's position right now, of course. I think even if Trump wins, nobody here should think it's inevitable. I think based on the differences in what polls are showing this time than they showed in 2016, Trump is right to focus on denying people the ability to vote or have their votes counted, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreePi Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 https://www.businessinsider.com/jeanine-pirro-joe-biden-fox-news-2020-8?amp I absolutely hate to give this alcoholic the time of day, but the amount of fuckery that will go down in the next couple of months will be unprecedented. There will be no depth that Trump and Barr won't go. I feel Team Biden needs to absolutely saturate the media to hammer home Barr's corruption. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 I've decided to take election week off for vacation. This will kill two birds with one stone: I get to unwind from work for a week, and I can watch election news the entire time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 This country is so so stupid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris- Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 +14 on health care 👀👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 GOP spellcasting is strong to convince the public they’re better on “the economy.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said: GOP spellcasting is strong to convince the public they’re better on “the economy.” The fucking deficit too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 I doubt it's legitimate support, more like wishy washy liberals trying to throw the gop a bone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Why Dems don't just call it absentee voting is fucking insane nowadays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Why Dems don't just call it absentee voting is fucking insane nowadays Look they were elected to fundraise not to lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Jason said: So we're not cutting off Florida? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 American Meat, Mother Approved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Quote Democrat Joe Biden's lead has expanded to double-digits against President Trump in the presidential election, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. Biden now leads Trump 53% to 42%, up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/14/902265017/poll-biden-expands-lead-a-third-of-country-says-it-wont-get-vaccinated I like the double digit lead polls! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 Now I wonder how the recent foreign policy news will change anything, if it does. Obama had a "historic" deal in 2016, and I don't think it was important as other issues at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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