b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Climate change isn't pausing for a pandemic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 But will they hit Alabama? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I look forward to hearing about NOAA losing funding for making trump look bad in an election year because he does fuck all to help those affected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 "The constitution doesn't even mention the NOAA, it's unconstitutional! This is a free country!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Vic20 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: "The constitution doesn't even mention the NOAA, it's unconstitutional! This is a free country!" Yes, but the Bible does, and it even spells his name right! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Man Trump had an easy first 3 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 What does "above normal" mean? If normal meant average of the distribution and the distribution is symmetric then you'd have 50% odds of being above average from the get go I presume it means something further than literally anything above the average, but what is it? One standard deviation out? More? Less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 22, 2020 Author Share Posted May 22, 2020 57 minutes ago, legend said: What does "above normal" mean? If normal meant average of the distribution and the distribution is symmetric then you'd have 50% odds of being above average from the get go I presume it means something further than literally anything above the average, but what is it? One standard deviation out? More? Less? I'm no met, but I follow this stuff because it is interesting, so @SaysWho? Can correct me if I'm wrong. My understanding is it is based on the probability (with 70% confidence, iirc) of the number of hurricanes and the ACE falling into one of three bins: below normal, normal/near normal, and above normal. Normal being the average number and strength of hurricanes in the mid to late 20th century (I'm unsure on exact dates). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml Some technical discussion from NOAA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 23 hours ago, chakoo said: I look forward to hearing about NOAA losing funding for making trump look bad in an election year because he does fuck all to help those affected. NOAA IS A KNOWN LIBERAL. HE SAVED ALL THOSE ANIMALS WHEN HE DIDN'T HAVE TO - COSTING THE JEW TAX PAYERS A LOT OF MONEY. INVESTIGATION? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 This is the first year in a while that they're predicting this much activity this far out, which is saying something considering every season since 2016 has been above normal. Every type of thing they look at -- water temperatures, Saharan dust, African monsoon season, wind shear -- point to a high likelihood of an above normal season. This gives a lot of good info, but don't overthink above normal. Info's right in the press release. "An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes." Avg Named Storms: 12 2020 Forecast: 13 - 19 Avg Hurricanes: 6 2020 Forecast: 6 - 10 Avg Major: 3 2020 Forecast: 3 - 6 The most active season was 2005. Avg: 12 2005: 27 Avg Hurricanes: 6 2005: 14 Avg Major: 3 2005: 7 This was the forecast at the time: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 The Pacific is also in a "La Nina" phase, which tends to increase tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: I'm no met, but I follow this stuff because it is interesting, so @SaysWho? Can correct me if I'm wrong. My understanding is it is based on the probability (with 70% confidence, iirc) of the number of hurricanes and the ACE falling into one of three bins: below normal, normal/near normal, and above normal. Normal being the average number and strength of hurricanes in the mid to late 20th century (I'm unsure on exact dates). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml Some technical discussion from NOAA 2 hours ago, SaysWho? said: This is the first year in a while that they're predicting this much activity this far out, which is saying something considering every season since 2016 has been above normal. Every type of thing they look at -- water temperatures, Saharan dust, African monsoon season, wind shear -- point to a high likelihood of an above normal season. This gives a lot of good info, but don't overthink above normal. Info's right in the press release. "An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes." Avg Named Storms: 12 2020 Forecast: 13 - 19 Avg Hurricanes: 6 2020 Forecast: 6 - 10 Avg Major: 3 2020 Forecast: 3 - 6 The most active season was 2005. Avg: 12 2005: 27 Avg Hurricanes: 6 2005: 14 Avg Major: 3 2005: 7 This was the forecast at the time: I guess what I'm looking for is what the distribution is, but seeing the extremes helps some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 22, 2020 Author Share Posted May 22, 2020 3 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml Some technical discussion from NOAA Quote An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of all named storms and hurricanes during the season. This 2020 outlook indicates a 70% chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 110%-190% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 71.4% and 120% of the 1981-2010 median reflects a near-normal season. Values above (below) this range reflect an above-normal (below-normal) season. The 2020 predicted ACE range extends well above the threshold (120% of median) for an above-normal season and even above the threshold (165% of median) for an extremely active (also called hyper-active) season. 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Quote NOAA predicts 60% chance of an "above normal" Atlantic hurricane season Or as Trump refers to it, "We're goung to have so much winding you're going to be tired of winding." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 The Atlantic’s third storm has formed in record time, and it’s a threat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 The only good that can come of this is the potential total annihilation of Trump's Florida properties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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