Update: Finland has joined NATO

[CitizenVectron]

Finland set to join Nato after Turkish parliament approval | News | Yle Uutiset

YLE.FI

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In a historic shift, Finland has been accepted as a full Nato member by all 30 countries in the alliance. Meanwhile neighbouring Sweden still awaits its green light.

 

Nice. Sweden still being held up by a few countries (I think Turkey and Hungary?), but hopefully they are eventually accepted, as well.

[Greatoneshere]

Obviously both will be happening, nice to see Finland about to be confirmed. Hungary and moreso Turkey are still holding up Sweden, that's correct. Some agreements and concessions and I'm sure they'll be next.

 

Who do we think will be next? Ukraine and/or Moldova seem like logical choices but both are dealing with Russian separatists (and obviously the war in Ukraine) so I'm thinking they are "too hot" to currently consider. Switzerland, Austria, and Ireland never will due to national constitutions and non-involvement cultures, so they're out. Cyprus won't either thanks to the issues with Turkey so they're out too. Belarus can't even meet basic NATO guidelines since they are a fascist dictatorship so they're out too. That leaves: Serbia (too sympathetic to Russia still, though that's changing), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo (too new), Georgia, and Armenia. Of those 5 options, only three seem viable, and even of those three, I think Georgia is most likely given Armenia's ties to Russia and its issues with Azerbaijan. Maybe Bosnia-Herzegovina? Thoughts?

[mclumber1]

Great news.  I would argue having Finland join is more important than Sweden, if only because they actually share a border with Russia.

[Greatoneshere]

1 minute ago, mclumber1 said:

Great news.  I would argue having Finland join is more important than Sweden, if only because they actually share a border with Russia.

 

Agreed, though Sweden would continue to strengthen NATO's hold on the Baltic Sea, especially given Kaliningrad is there so we definitely want them too.

[mclumber1]

2 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

Obviously both will be happening, nice to see Finland about to be confirmed. Hungary and moreso Turkey are still holding up Sweden, that's correct. Some agreements and concessions and I'm sure they'll be next.

 

Who do we think will be next? Ukraine and/or Moldova seem like logical choices but both are dealing with Russian separatists (and obviously the war in Ukraine) so I'm thinking they are "too hot" to currently consider. Switzerland, Austria, and Ireland never will due to national constitutions and non-involvement cultures, so they're out. Cyprus won't either thanks to the issues with Turkey so they're out too. Belarus can't even meet basic NATO guidelines since they are a fascist dictatorship so they're out too. That leaves: Serbia (too sympathetic to Russia still, though that's changing), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo (too new), Georgia, and Armenia. Of those 5 options, only three seem viable, and even of those three, I think Georgia is most likely given Armenia's ties to Russia and its issues with Azerbaijan. Maybe Bosnia-Herzegovina? Thoughts?

 

Moldova can short circuit the process by joining into a union with Romania.  They would automatically be a part of NATO then!

[Greatoneshere]

Just now, mclumber1 said:

 

Moldova can short circuit the process by joining into a union with Romania.  They would automatically be a part of NATO then!

 

That's true! And I do keep seeing them vote on it, but how likely is this to come to pass? And what would be done about Transnistria? I assume the Russian separatists there wouldn't just accept Romanian rule any more than they did Moldovan rule.

[SaysWho?]

1 hour ago, mclumber1 said:

Great news.  I would argue having Finland join is more important than Sweden, if only because they actually share a border with Russia.

Putin wanted to restore the Soviet Union and for NATO to dissolve. Now NATO is getting bigger.

 

fuck him so bad.

[CayceG]

Russia is the reason NATO exists. If NATO is to not exist, Russia needs to not be a threat. Until Russia is no longer a threat, a powerful NATO is essential. 

[Fizzzzle]

2 hours ago, Greatoneshere said:

Obviously both will be happening, nice to see Finland about to be confirmed. Hungary and moreso Turkey are still holding up Sweden, that's correct. Some agreements and concessions and I'm sure they'll be next.

 

Who do we think will be next? Ukraine and/or Moldova seem like logical choices but both are dealing with Russian separatists (and obviously the war in Ukraine) so I'm thinking they are "too hot" to currently consider. Switzerland, Austria, and Ireland never will due to national constitutions and non-involvement cultures, so they're out. Cyprus won't either thanks to the issues with Turkey so they're out too. Belarus can't even meet basic NATO guidelines since they are a fascist dictatorship so they're out too. That leaves: Serbia (too sympathetic to Russia still, though that's changing), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo (too new), Georgia, and Armenia. Of those 5 options, only three seem viable, and even of those three, I think Georgia is most likely given Armenia's ties to Russia and its issues with Azerbaijan. Maybe Bosnia-Herzegovina? Thoughts?

Spain still doesn't recognize Kosovo because of their own separatist issues, so unless something changes there, Kosovo is out.

 

Georgia is too hot. Joining NATO would probably be conditional on formally recognizing South Ossetia and Abkazia as independent countries and/or part of Russia, but it would be very tense.

 

I actually think Azerbaijan is far more likely to join NATO than Armenia, since they've been much more friendly to the west, but Azerbaijan becoming a NATO member probably wouldn't fly since they're almost certainly going to war with Armenia again eventually.

 

Of the ones you mentioned, I think Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina are the most likely to join. Having all of the balkan states be NATO members actually guarantees peace in the region as long as NATO exists, so... that's actually kinda nice.

[Massdriver]

Great news.

[Greatoneshere]

3 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

Spain still doesn't recognize Kosovo because of their own separatist issues, so unless something changes there, Kosovo is out.

 

Georgia is too hot. Joining NATO would probably be conditional on formally recognizing South Ossetia and Abkazia as independent countries and/or part of Russia, but it would be very tense.

 

I actually think Azerbaijan is far more likely to join NATO than Armenia, since they've been much more friendly to the west, but Azerbaijan becoming a NATO member probably wouldn't fly since they're almost certainly going to war with Armenia again eventually.

 

Of the ones you mentioned, I think Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina are the most likely to join. Having all of the balkan states be NATO members actually guarantees peace in the region as long as NATO exists, so... that's actually kinda nice.

 

That's true about Spain and Kosovo, I had forgotten. Kosovo will get there in time, their legitimacy within the UN continues to grow, which will help it. Georgia is too hot, similar to Moldova and Ukraine, but I know they've floated that they want to join NATO so I thought that might help move them along. I don't think Azerbaijan will ever be invited to NATO because it is a Muslim-dominant country - Turkey has always been the exception I feel like. It'd be cool if that happened though. 

 

I do think Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina are most likely as well. Definitely getting all the Balkan states on board would be nice.

[Zaku3]

Turkey is in because of the Bosphorous. It would keep the Soviet Navy in the Black Sea. Only subs could realistically get through a defend Bosphorous. It also opens a front near the Caucasus. For example not having Turkey in means Greece and other naval powers would need a presence in the med beyond an ASW presence. 

[Air_Delivery]

4 hours ago, CayceG said:

Russia is the reason NATO exists. If NATO is to not exist, Russia needs to not be a threat. Until Russia is no longer a threat, a powerful NATO is essential. 

China will soon be the reason for NATO.

[CayceG]

8 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

China will soon be the reason for NATO.

 

NATO's Charter doesn't have any way to legally deal with Chinese action in the Pacific. 

 

Not unless China directly attacks the US itself. 

[SaysWho?]

Why is Sweden still being blocked while Finland will be officially part of NATO in the coming days?

[mclumber1]

2 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Why is Sweden still being blocked while Finland will be officially part of NATO in the coming days?

 

Turkey gets really offended when Swedes burn Korans.

[Greatoneshere]

On 4/2/2023 at 12:01 PM, SaysWho? said:

Why is Sweden still being blocked while Finland will be officially part of NATO in the coming days?

 

On 4/2/2023 at 12:03 PM, mclumber1 said:

Turkey gets really offended when Swedes burn Korans.

 

Basically this. Turkey doesn't like Sweden's specific stance on freedom of religion in Sweden and their stance on what Turkey deems Kurdish terrorists. They don't have these same issues with Finland.

 

It's no surprise that Hungary and Turkey, both essentially fascist dictatorships now, were the hold outs. It's also stuff like this is why the EU will never confirm Turkey to join them (especially after 2016) and why NATO has always been hesitant including Muslim-dominant countries into its fold (see also: Turkey's issues with Cyprus, preventing Cyprus from joining NATO despite Cyprus being in the EU), which is why I believe NATO would consider the rest of the Balkan states or Georgia or even Armenia before ever considering Azerbaijan. Armenia and Serbia are the two divisive ones since many in those countries still support Russia. While Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in Russia's CSTO, they can never join NATO anyway.

 

Edit: In fact, the EU has considered/is considering Armenia and Georgia while Azerbaijan's not even on their list.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

It's official:

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

 

[outsida]

Putin is obviously a tactical genius. 

[Chairslinger]

On 4/2/2023 at 1:59 PM, Greatoneshere said:

 

 

Basically this. Turkey doesn't like Sweden's specific stance on freedom of religion in Sweden and their stance on what Turkey deems Kurdish terrorists. They don't have these same issues with Finland.

 

It's no surprise that Hungary and Turkey, both essentially fascist dictatorships now, were the hold outs. It's also stuff like this is why the EU will never confirm Turkey to join them (especially after 2016) and why NATO has always been hesitant including Muslim-dominant countries into its fold (see also: Turkey's issues with Cyprus, preventing Cyprus from joining NATO despite Cyprus being in the EU), which is why I believe NATO would consider the rest of the Balkan states or Georgia before ever considering Azerbaijan. Armenia and Serbia are the two divisive ones since many in those countries still support Russia. While Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in Russia's CSTO, they can never join NATO anyway.

 

Edit: In fact, the EU has considered/is considering Armenia and Georgia while Azerbaijan's not even on their list.

 

 

Turkey is the Joe Manchin of NATO.

[Jason]

6 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

It's official:

 

 

Still very good for Sweden too in the interim, Russia can't launch an invasion from Kaliningrad so having NATO territory between them and Russia is still a solid safety buffer.

[Greatoneshere]

Apparently today is exactly 74 years since since the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty which established NATO, which is cool. It's about damn time - I really don't think Putin understands just how HUGE of a get Finland (and Sweden, just give it some time) are for NATO when before the war in Ukraine it never would have happened. This also continues to create further synergy and synchronicity with the EU, which both Finland and Sweden are already a part of. The only countries left that are in the EU that are not in NATO are: Switzerland, Austria, Ireland and Cyprus and none of those four will ever join NATO anytime soon most likely.

 

The three final Balkan states will join NATO in due time (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo), just like Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia did before them. It'll take time but it seems Moldova and Ukraine (depending on how the war goes) will likely join in time too now. Same with Georgia. If these countries can get themselves to meet basic NATO guidelines then it's just the issues with Russia left in most of these cases. 

 

I'm not holding my breath on Belarus, Armenia or Azerbaijan ever joining.

[Fizzzzle]

9 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: