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Gerry come get this mander

b_m_b_m_b_m

By b_m_b_m_b_m
in The Political Re-Education Camp

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Signifyin(g)Monkey

Signifyin(g)Monkey

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I think, at this point, if the current system of technologically-enhanced gerrymandering remains in place, there’s a decent chance the country collapses into a Yugoslav-war type situation at some point.  Especially if we keep electing Orange Milosevic’s and click-maximization via algorithm-guided rage-provocation remains the modus operandi and business model of the big social media platforms.

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Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

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52 minutes ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

I'm sort of getting to the point where I just wanna say fuck it. I'll still vote, but otherwise I just wanna focus on my life and my financial gains because I'll lose my sanity if I get too invested in politics in this shit country.

Fine, when I win the woke Olympics I'll make sure you don't get a seat at the onions

 

Edit: didn't mean onions, but I like it. I'm keeping it.

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SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

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2 hours ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

I'm sort of getting to the point where I just wanna say fuck it. I'll still vote, but otherwise I just wanna focus on my life and my financial gains because I'll lose my sanity if I get too invested in politics in this shit country.

That's how I survived the last two Trump years

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b_m_b_m_b_m

b_m_b_m_b_m

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2 minutes ago, ThreePi said:

California, New York, and Illinois should all gerrymandering the shit out of their state. Figure out a way of putting the South Side of Chicago in the same district as East St. Louis.

I’ve seen beautiful 15-0 gerrymanders of Illinois, 24-0 in NY, and 55-0 in CA. 
 

a better world is possible

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

Posted
Posted

I've been watching that closely for a while but there are many Republican states that haven't finalized their plans, and we have yet to see what happens since they've limited what the Democratic Wisconsin governor can do to the legislature's map. I'm also not sure what happens with Virginia and if the new governor has a say.

 

However, this does show that voting matters -- 2018 meant Democrats had more power after the 2020 census than the very little power they had after 2010.

 

A bit more on California from 538:

 

Quote

On Dec. 26, California’s independent citizen redistricting commission unanimously voted to certify the state’s new congressional map.

 

Overall, the map creates 43 Democratic-leaning seats, seven Republican-leaning seats and two highly competitive seats. That’s essentially the same mix as the current map, although California did lose one seat through reapportionment, and that seat was ultimately Democratic-leaning. Notably, too, despite being drawn by an independent commission, the new map is moderately biased toward Democrats, according to our fairness metrics.

 

Democrats actually lost a seat from the old map given California lost a seat in the reapportionment process, but the new map mostly offers incumbents a lifeline. For instance, in central California, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder’s district was made much redder, going from highly competitive (R+1) to solidly Republican-leaning (R+17) so he’ll now be likely to run in the neighboring 13th District instead. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter also will be running in a new district, which makes sense given her current district went from a partisan lean of D+6 to R+4. (The 47th where Porter is now running has a partisan lean of D+6.)

 

And yes, two Democratic representatives, Lucille Roybal-Allard and Alan Lowenthal, were drawn into the same district given California lost a district, but given the deep blue hue of that seat it will almost certainly be filled by a Democrat. (Both Lowenthal and Roybal-Allard are retiring.)

 

Republicans, on the other hand, face a number of districts that got a lot less friendly to them. For instance, Republican Rep. Devin Nunes’s 21st District is much bluer now, going from R+11 in the current map to D+16 in the new map, although Nunes recently announced he’s resigning from Congress at the end of the year, so that change is no longer an issue for him. Republican Rep. Tom McClintock’s district also became bluer, shifting from solidly Republican (R+15) to Republican-leaning (R+8). It’s also required Republican Reps. Michelle Steel and Young Kim to reassess where they’ll run. (Kim will run in the more Republican-leaning 40th District while Steel will run in the bluer 45th District.)

 

One other big takeaway from the new map is that about one-third of the new districts are majority-Hispanic — an increase of at least three districts — which makes sense because much of California’s growth over the past decade happened in Hispanic communities. That may lead to an increase in Latino representatives, and overall represents greater political power for Latino voters. According to the Los Angeles Times, advocates for Black and Asian American voters were also pleased with the results, saying that gains for Hispanic voters did not come at other minority voters’ expense.

 

Many groups were happy with the results. Last paragraph bolded.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Posted

Michigan approves their map. It's better than the 2010 one.

 

8dc098ae-1602-4382-86e0-592f7cc8d871-red

Michigan's redistricting commission adopts final congressional map for the next decade

WWW.FREEP.COM
The vote Tuesday leaves Michigan with 13 new U.S. House districts for the next decade.

 

Quote

According to three measures of partisan fairness based on statewide election data from the past decade, the map favors Republicans. But those measures also show a significant reduction in the Republican bias identified in the GOP-drawn map currently in place, deemed one of the most politically biased maps in the country. One of the partisan fairness measures used by the commission indicates Democratic candidates would have an advantage under the new map.

 

Politicians from metro Detroit have raised concerns about the elimination of the two majority-Black districts that run through Detroit. And on Tuesday, the chair of the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party Organization threatened a lawsuit against the commission alleging that the map disenfranchises Black voters. 

 

The commission's voting rights attorney Bruce Adelson has argued that the districts drawn by the commission comply with the Voting Rights Act, the federal law that prohibits racially discriminatory districts that deny minority voters an opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. 

 

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The map was the only one proposed by the commission that creates a Black-plurality district in Detroit where the Black voting age population outnumbers the white voting age population. 

 

NEW map:

 

iNgeabI.png

 

OLD map:

 

ILstnfO.png

 

One of the solidly Republican seats goes away, and one of the Republican-leaning seats turns competitive. 

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

Posted
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I'd also caution against using just the +/- Democratic/Republican metric. There are some improving maps, but some of them you have to read between the lines.

 

For example, in Texas, you might think Democrats got it good because there are a ton of solidly Democratic districts and fewer competitive ones. But that was achieved by taking districts that were trending Democratic -- like Dan Crenshaw's +9 Republican district -- and making it +30 Republican. So they packed some districts so Democrats could easily win, but made it so a bunch of the Republican-leaning districts were solidly Republican. That's done to bake in Republican dominance

 

It's not all bad: groups are suing over it, and the plus side is that people are still moving to Texas, which can alter the districts further over the next decade. Plus, you do have more Democratic seats that are less at risk of turning, but it makes for fewer opportunities to turn seats around short-term in 2022. 

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