Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Should seize his assets like the Russian oligarch he wishes to be 

[Air_Delivery]

59 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

There have been a few reports that the US has delivered new cluster munitions for the HIMARS launchers (m26 cluster rockets no longer used by the US military, but for which hundreds of thousands sit in storage). The Russians are reporting that they've been used, but no confirmations:

 

 

 

[Jason]

the hot party pm with the realtalk

 

 

[Ricofoley]

So uh, what are we to make of this?

[Air_Delivery]

We are about to find out if jet fuel melts steel beams 

[Air_Delivery]

Looks like something from underneath. Might have been a boat bomb or planted explosives.

[Air_Delivery]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 07 October 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. The Washington Post reported that US intelligence

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. The Washington Post reported that US intelligence obtained information that a member of Putin’s inner circle directly criticized Putin’s “extensive military shortcomings” during the war in Ukraine, and other Western and Kremlin-affiliated officials noted rising criticism of Putin’s mishandling of the war and mobilization.[1] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that there have been debates in the Kremlin regarding mobilization in a statement to The Washington Post but denied all allegations of a member of the Kremlin confronting Putin. ISW cannot verify any of these reports are real or assess the likelihood that these arguments or fractures will change Putin’s mind about continuing the war, let alone if they will destabilize his regime. Word of fractures within Putin’s inner circle have reached the hyper-patriotic and nationalist milblogger crowd, however, undermining the impression of strength and control that Putin has sought to portray throughout his reign.

 

Some Russian milbloggers have begun speculating that there are two factions within the Kremlin following Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s harsh criticism of the Russian higher military command.[2] A milblogger told his nearly one million readers that Kadyrov and Prigozhin are part of the faction that seeks to continue the war and accomplish its ideological goals regardless of cost. The milblogger noted that the faction opposed to them consisted of government officials who wish to negotiate with the West to save their assets and residences in the West but are too afraid to confront Putin directly. The milblogger expressed hope that the pro-war faction will defeat the faction that fails to see that Russia cannot afford to end the war.

 

The presentation of fundamental disagreements within Putin’s inner circle and challenges to his decisions, even if quiet, within the Russian nationalist space risks depicting Putin as weak and not fully in control of his government. The truth or falseness of that presentation is less important than its injection into the audiences on which Putin most relies for continued support in his war. Putin himself may have externalized his own concerns about this break in the façade of his power and of the unanimity of his trusted senior officials in an odd exchange with a teacher on October 5.[3] Putin asked the teacher how he taught his students about the causes of the Pugachev Rebellion that challenged Catherine the Great in the mid-1770s.[4] The teacher, from Izhevsk, one of the towns that Pugachev captured during his revolt, offered answers that did not satisfy Putin, including the observation that the rebellion had occurred because of the appearance of “a leader who could capitalize on a wave of dissatisfaction,” and that the lesson to be drawn from that episode of history was “that it is necessary to respect the views of other members of society.” Putin offered his own answer: “The leader [Pugachev] claimed to be tsar. And how did that arise? Why was that possible?...Because of the element of weakening of the central power.”[5] The exchange was bizarre and fascinating since there is no reason Pugachev’s Rebellion should have been on Putin’s mind at this time, nor any reason for him to worry about someone else “claiming to be tsar.”—unless, of course, Putin himself perceives a weakening of the central power, i.e., himself.[6]

 

Kadyrov and Prigozhin will likely attempt to make minor ground advances in Donetsk Oblast to maintain their prominence and reputation in the nationalist and proxy information spaces. Russian forces have been making incremental advances around Bakhmut and Avdiivka between October 6 and October 7, likely with the support of Wagner and Kadyrov’s elements in the area. Some milbloggers and Ukrainian officials reported that Prigozhin committed 1,000 of his troops to strengthen positions in Lysychansk to secure Russian frontlines following the collapse of the Lyman frontline.[7] Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin even awarded Kadyrov the title of hero of the DNR.[8] The claims about Kadyrov and Prigozhin making gains and preparing to save the day coincides with Kremlin efforts to improve the reputation of the Commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin whom they both attacked earlier.[9] Milbloggers even reported meeting Lapin, who is now reportedly commanding the Svatove-Kreminna frontline in Luhansk Oblast.[10]

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until Putin could use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv and Lyman. Russian media reported on October 7 that Putin replaced Chaiko with Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov. Chaiko is the second military district commander to be replaced since the Russian lines in Kharkiv collapsed—Putin replaced the Western Military District commander on October 3, as ISW previously reported.[11] Oddly, Russian milbloggers first reported that Muradov had replaced Chaiko on September 4, but the Kremlin has yet to formally confirm the appointment.[12] State-run and independent media outlets quoted the governor of Dagestan congratulating Muradov on his appointment and cited an entry in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities to confirm the replacement.[13] Muradov had previously commanded the eastern grouping of Russian forces in Ukraine, which is likely comprised of elements of the EMD, as of July.[14]

 

Key Takeaways

• Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until he needed to use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• Anecdotal reports of poor conditions for mobilized personnel in the Russian information space are continuing to fuel the accurate narrative of Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) incompetence.
• Russian officials offered basic concessions for mobilized men and their families on October 7 but continue to rely on local governments and other non-federal institutions to provide support, including food and training, to newly mobilized men.
• Russian occupation authorities in Donetsk Oblast are continuing to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian civilians, belying Russian claims that residents of newly-annexed territories will not be mobilized.
• Ukrainian officials in newly liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to uncover Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses.
• Russian occupation officials have likely failed to repair necessary civilian infrastructure in occupied and illegally-annexed parts of Ukraine in time for winter as temperatures drop.

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Wtf happened? Roadway is down (or at least one of the two parts) AND train bridge on fire. Planted explosives by special forces?

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russia now claiming it was a truck bomb.

 

Also:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Hmm, people think the explosion came from under the bridge, not above. Remember this?

 

Russia Finds Mystery Vessel On Crimean Beach: Is It A New Ukrainian Attack Drone?

WWW.FORBES.COM

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A kayak-sized vessel found washed up in Crimea may be a new type of drone boat used by Ukraine to carry out attacks on Russian warships. And it might have been supplied by the U.S.

 

[CayceG]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

Hmm, people think the explosion came from under the bridge, not above. Remember this?

 

Russia Finds Mystery Vessel On Crimean Beach: Is It A New Ukrainian Attack Drone?

WWW.FORBES.COM

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A kayak-sized vessel found washed up in Crimea may be a new type of drone boat used by Ukraine to carry out attacks on Russian warships. And it might have been supplied by the U.S.

 

 

 

Those people are baking way too hard. 

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

 

Those people are baking way too hard. 

 

Yeah I don't think it was an unmanned boat. I do think it was beneath the bridge, though, but likely planted explosives.

 

Lol:

 

 

[CayceG]

Looking at the security footage, the explosion was massive. Too big for a planted explosive, but probably reasonably able to fit in the truck. 

 

 

That brings up some operational questions. The direction of travel was west, FROM Russia. Were there just no cargo inspections from the Russian side?

Also, was it a suicide bombing? It certainly seems that way, as a remote controlled semi truck doesn't seem to be within the capabilities Ukraine has, especially operating out of Southern Russia. 

 

The "planted explosives below the bridge" theory also assumes that special forces operated below the bridge with pounds and pounds of explosives without being noticed. That's less likely, to me. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[PaladinSolo]

Theres a video of the truck being inspected before traveling on the bridge, its also possible the explosion is just from the fuel on the train igniting and the pressure wave just knocked the bridge section out.  It doesn't really look like the explosion came from the truck as the debris is entirely moving one direction instead of all around it.

[mclumber1]

2 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Theres a video of the truck being inspected before traveling on the bridge, its also possible the explosion is just from the fuel on the train igniting.  It doesn't really look like the explosion came from the truck as the debris is entirely moving one direction instead of all around it.

 

I'm not sure fuel could cause such a violent explosion.  You'd need to have a perfect air/fuel mixture in order to create a shockwave that would cause the damage we see, so it's more likely high explosives from a planted bomb, explosives in a vehicle, or a missile hit of some sort. 

[CayceG]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Some sort of action is being taken against the military in Moscow

 

 

 

 

No it isn't. 

 

This is a propaganda narrative being stirred up by Ukraine to sow fear and distrust in Russia. There's zero evidence that "the military is being arrested."

 

What this does look like is a police response to a large terror attack: an increased presence in the national capitol.

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

 

No it isn't. 

 

This is a propaganda narrative being stirred up by Ukraine to sow fear and distrust in Russia. There's zero evidence that "the military is being arrested."

 

What this does look like is a police response to a large terror attack: an increased presence in the national capitol.

 

Yeah I deleted before you replied

[SuperSpreader]

1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

Theres a video of the truck being inspected before traveling on the bridge, its also possible the explosion is just from the fuel on the train igniting and the pressure wave just knocked the bridge section out.  It doesn't really look like the explosion came from the truck as the debris is entirely moving one direction instead of all around it.

 

Yes I agree. There's two explosions, I think the fuel tanker on the train line being there was a happy accident. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

Russia shelled the nuclear plant they control again.

[CitizenVectron]

Dang, back open. Probably wouldn't pass an actual engineer's inspection in the west, but Russia doesn't care.

 

 

[silentbob]

Looks like Ukraine might of been behind the bridge attack. . . .because they released a stamp or 2 to commemorate it.

 

 

[mclumber1]

Looks like it was a double missile strike.

 

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

12 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

Looks like it was a double missile strike.

 

 

 

Nice so it can be done again 

[CayceG]

15 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

Looks like it was a double missile strike.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is fake as shit. 

 

Why does the video cut off before the "second missile" hit? Why was there only one explosion noted on FIRMS imagery? Why did the CCTV footage only show one explosion?

 

 

Yall need to get way better at vetting shit. 

[SuperSpreader]

5 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

 

 

This is fake as shit. 

 

Why does the video cut off before the "second missile" hit? Why was there only one explosion noted on FIRMS imagery? Why did the CCTV footage only show one explosion?

 

 

Yall need to get way better at vetting shit. 

 

It's Russian CCTV so nothing works 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 08 October 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8. Maxar satellite imagery shows that the explosion collapsed one lane of the road bridge and damaged the nearby railway track. The Russian

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8. Maxar satellite imagery shows that the explosion collapsed one lane of the road bridge and damaged the nearby railway track.[1] The Russian Investigative Committee stated that a truck exploded on the bridge and ignited seven fuel tanks on the railroad.[2] A small fraction of Russian milbloggers speculated that Ukrainian saboteurs used a boat to detonate the bridge from the sea, though there is no visible evidence for such a conclusion.[3] The Kremlin refrained from accusing Ukraine of sabotage or attack, echoing similar restraint following the sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the Ukrainian strike on Saky airfield in Crimea.[4] Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the incident, but The New York Times reported that an unnamed senior Ukrainian official stated that Ukrainian intelligence participated in the explosion.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that the Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a government commission composed of government officials, security services, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations to investigate the ”emergency.”[6]

 

The explosion will not permanently disrupt critical Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Crimea, but its aftermath is likely to increase friction in Russian logistics for some time. The road bridge appears at least partially operational, and the railroad bridge did not suffer significant structural damage according to Russian reports that generally seem plausible based on the available video evidence. Russian footage shows people walking on the damaged road bridge and a train moving on the railroad bridge.[7] The Head of occupied Crimea Sergey Aksyonov claimed that the remaining lane of the road bridge opened to cars and buses after a rigorous security check, but that trucks must move by ferry.[8] The collapsed lane of the road bridge will restrict Russian military movements until it is repaired, forcing some Russian forces to rely on the ferry connection for some time. Russian forces will likely still be able to transport heavy military equipment via the railroad. Russian officials will likely intensify security checks on all vehicles crossing the bridge, however, adding delays to the movement of Russian military equipment, personnel, and supplies to Crimea. Putin has already signed a decree strengthening the security protocol on the bridge under the supervision of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).[9]

 

The Kremlin is likely continuing to frame the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as the scapegoat for the Kerch Bridge explosion and other Russian military failures to deflect the blame from Putin. The Russian MoD has not issued an official statement regarding the incident as of this publication.[10] Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that the Russian Presidential Administration sent out a guide to Russian mass media on the appropriate way to downplay the severity of the damage to the bridge, and it is possible that the Kremlin has ordered the Russian MoD to remain quiet regarding the situation.[11] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov stated that Russia must initiate a strike campaign on critical Ukrainian infrastructure instead of listening to Russian MoD promises.[12]

 

Some nationalist voices noted that Putin and his close circle are failing to immediately address the attack on the symbolic bridge, voicing direct criticism of Putin for the first time. A milblogger warned that if Putin fails to undertake retaliatory actions it “will be mistaken for the weakness of the president himself.”[13] Another milblogger noted that it is hypocritical for the Kremlin to call on Russians to rally behind Putin if he is unable to comment on significant events such as the Moskva sinking, prisoner exchanges including Azovstal fighters, or the collapse of the Kharkiv frontline.[14] Others criticized the silence of Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev regarding the explosion, given that Medvedev had made several statements defining any attacks on the Kerch Bridge as a violation of Russian ”red lines.”[15] Russian milbloggers and propagandists alike called on the Kremlin to resume strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and notably did not make any calls for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

 

Ukrainian and Russian sources claimed that the Kremlin targeted some higher military command figures following the Kerch Bridge explosion, but these reports remain unverified as of this publication. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin detained, arrested, and blocked unspecified military officials and ordered the units of the elite Dzerzhinsky Separate Operation Purpose Division to enter Moscow on October 8.[16] Milbloggers who favor the Wagner Group claimed that the Kremlin has replaced Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov supposedly with Tula Governor Alexey Dyumin and the deputy commander-in-chief of the ground forces, Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov, respectfully.[17] ISW cannot independently verify either of these reports at this time.

 

The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community. Sorovikin previously commanded the “southern” group of forces in Ukraine and was reportedly responsible for the capture of Lysychansk in July.[18] Milbloggers shared their excitement regarding Surovikin’s appointment, noting that Surovikin has the “tough” character necessary to regain the initiative in Ukraine.[19] Wagner financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin extravagantly praised Surovikin because he “got into a tank and rushed to save” the Soviet Union during the 1991 coup attempt in Moscow.[20] Prigozhin’s interview further confirmed reports of a fissure between pro-war and “liberal” factions within the Kremlin, which ISW will consider in more detail in subsequent reports.

 

Key Takeaways

• A large-scale explosion seriously damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia.
• The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts.
• Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to attack settlements around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to shoot down Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.
• Russian federal subjects are facing financial challenges in funding mobilization.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continued measures to remove Ukrainian children from their homes in Russian-occupied territories.

 

 

[skillzdadirecta]

Kyiv, Lviv, other Ukrainian cities rocked by blasts

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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Several explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and the cities of Lviv, Ternopil and Dnipro on Monday, after Russia accused Ukraine of orchestrating a powerful blast that damaged a key bridge linking Russia and Crimea.

 

[PaladinSolo]

Russia tried to destroy a pedestrian bridge and missed, lol.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

At least 83 missiles were launched at targets across the breadth of Ukraine, of those about half were intercepted.

[CayceG]

The Ukrainians used a MANPADS to down one of the cruise missiles. This is outstanding work and I had no idea MANPADS were this good. 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, I am fucking furious at these strikes.