Update: Iranian regime turns to public executions in attempt to quell continuing unrest

[Jason]

Iran crackdown after Mahsa Amini’s death prompts protests - The Washington Post

WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

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Authorities fired on people protesting the death of Mahsa Amini, killing at least five, according to a rights watchdog.

 

 

[Brick]

"Morality Police" 

 

That's just straight out of a young adult dystopian fantasy novel shit. 

[DarkStar189]

Not to take away from the seriousness of the story, but I misread the title as "Volcano erupts in Iran after woman dies...".  Been a long day.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

I genuinely do wish that something would come of this, but much like just about every eruption of unrest in Iran, it will fizzle out eventually.

 

I've noticed that the Iranian government doesn't even really bother to engage in large-scale crackdowns during these periodic bursts of unrest as they know that they have limited longevity, so why bother making the effort to quash it?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for ongoing civil unrest in Iran:

 

 

Iran Crisis Update, September 30 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Anti-regime protests are continuing in at least 10 major cities in eight provinces and escalated violently in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30. Protesters clashed with security forces in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan

 

 

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The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

 

Anti-regime protests are continuing in at least 10 major cities in eight provinces and escalated violently in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30. Protesters clashed with security forces in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, attacking local police stations and killing the provincial head of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) intelligence.[1] Social media users suggested that state security services deployed helicopters to abet their crackdown.[2] These clashes are among the most violent in the ongoing protest wave thus far.

 

The security situation around Zahedan could worsen in the coming days and weeks, straining state security services more than they already are. Anti-regime militancy is common around Zahedan, where Salafi-jihadi groups such as Jaish al Adl operate. An Iranian Baluch militant group, Anonymous Tigers of Baluchistan, reportedly released a video on September 30 threatening to escalate further against the regime in response to the clashes on September 30.[3] State security services have struggled with bandwidth constraints and exhaustion throughout Iran during the ongoing, countrywide protests, and escalations around Zahedan will impose additional pressure.

 

A senior Iranian military official, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally operating in Iraqi airspace near an American military base.[4] Bagheri also suggested that Iran would attack US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish groups. The IRGC has conducted six consecutive days of attacks on anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan.[5] Bagheri accused the US of using its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and support these groups in September 2021.[6] Iranian proxies in Iraq accused Omar Mahmoudzadeh, the American whom the IRGC killed in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 28, of training anti-regime Kurdish militants.[7]

 

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance on September 30.
• The ongoing, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 10 cities in eight provinces and were especially violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30.
• Iran’s most senior military official threatened to attack US bases in Iraq.

 

Supreme Leader Succession

 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance on September 30. Iranian state media reported that Khamenei issued a statement expressing condolences over the death of senior cleric Mohsen Labbani.[8] Unverifiable social media rumors circulated on September 29 claiming that Khamenei’s health is worsening.[9]

 

President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech in Tehran to commemorate the National Firefighting Day.[10] Raisi made no noteworthy remarks on supreme leader succession or the ongoing anti-regime protests.

 

Anti-Regime Protests

 

The ongoing, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 10 Iranian cities in eight provinces and were especially violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30. This is a moderate-to-high-confidence assessment. Iranian social media users documented unrest in:

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Ardabil City, Ardabil Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Dezful, Khuzestan Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province
• Tehran, Tehran Province

 

 

 

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Violent clashes between protestors and Iranian security personnel erupted in Zahedan City, killing a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[11] Social media users circulated footage purportedly of Iranian security forces firing live ammunition at protestors and flying helicopters around Zahedan.[12] CTP cannot verify the authenticity of this footage or the social media claims that the helicopters included Cobra attack aircraft. A provincial official and Iranian media outlets later corroborated reports of unrest and claimed that unidentified assailants damaged local security infrastructure and killed at least 19 Zahedan residents, one of whom was a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[13] An independent cybersecurity watchdog organization announced severe internet disruptions in the vicinity of Zahedan as the regime likely seeks to impede further regional protest coordination and organization.[14]

 

The regime reports that it has arrested over a thousand Iranian civilians since protests began on September 16. Iranian state-affiliated media outlets and officials have reported the arrest of over a thousand Iranians throughout the country in recent days, although the total number of arrests is likely significantly higher.[15] Social media users have circulated reports of increased arrests in recent days as well, although these numbers are difficult to corroborate amidst ongoing internet restrictions.[16] Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security publicized the arrest of nine European nationals and dozens of purported opposition group members for their role in stoking nation-wide protests as the regime seeks to blame foreign actors for internal dissent.[17]

 

Iranian truckers have gone on strike, and their strikes could expand in the coming days. Iranian truckers have begun strikes to protest the regime crackdown.[18] Iranian trucker strikes have occurred in previous protests, notably 2018, and often spread rapidly. They pose a more serious threat to the regime than other labor-related movements because of their general economic effect and their widespread nature.[19] Iranian oil industry workers warned on September 26 that they will strike if the regime does not stop the crackdown.[20] Iranian rideshare drivers have stated that they will begin strikes on October 1.[21]

 

Unverified reports of dissent within the regime are circulating online.

• Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon published a statement allegedly from students and teachers at the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.[22] CTP cannot verify the authenticity of this report.
• A statement appeared on the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency website allegedly from its employees on September 30, expressing support for the protests and condemning the regime.[23] The statement claimed that the regime has arrested 23,000 people and that 423 people have died in the protests. The statement also called on the Artesh—Iran's conventional military—to support the protests. Fars News Agency removed the statement from its website shortly after its publication. It is unclear whether the statement came from its employees or hackers, although Fars News did not claim that its site had been hacked.
• Anti-regime outlet IranWire reported that members of the Basij Organization are refusing to attend meetings and are leaving their morality patrols, citing an unidentified former Iranian security official.[24] The Basij Organization is a paramilitary body under the IRGC responsible for civil defense and social control. The source told IranWire that Iranian authorities are concerned about defections and dissent in the state security services. CTP cannot confirm this report.

 

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

 

Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the most senior military official in Iran, threatened to attack the US on September 30.[25] Bagheri threatened to retaliate for the US downing of an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone on September 28 and stated that Iran will attack any US bases in Iraq that threaten the regime. Bagheri claimed that the US downing of the Iranian drone was evidence that the US cooperates with anti-regime Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Bagheri in September 2021 accused the US of using its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and support anti-regime militants against Iran.[26] The Armed Forces General Staff, which Bagheri heads, is Iran’s highest military body and responsible for military policy and strategic guidance. Bagheri is an IRGC general and a member of the network of senior IRGC officials that has been largely controlling the Guards for decades.

 

Iran’s Iraqi proxies are amplifying Tehran’s narrative blaming anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests, but Iraqi political unrest may undermine the proxies’ messaging. Media channels closely tied to Iranian proxy militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) emphasized anti-regime Kurdish militias’ alleged role in the Iranian protests in Telegram posts on September 29.[27] AAH and KH also downplayed the deaths of Kurdish civilians and US citizen Omar Mahmoudzadeh, further alleging that Mahmoudzadeh was affiliated with the US military and was training Kurdish militants.[28]

 

Iran’s Iraqi proxies are simultaneously conducting a media campaign against Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr's Iraqi nationalist movement. The proxies aim to politically isolate Sadr’s followers, known as Sadrists, and blame them for Iraq’s political gridlock and the armed clashes in Baghdad on September 28.[29] The proxies may prioritize the anti-Sadrist media campaign and dilute their messaging that blames the US and anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests.

 

Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Turkey on September 29-30.[30] Afghan women protested in front of the Iranian embassy in Kabul on September 29.[31] Taliban security forces fired live ammunition into the air to disperse the crowd. Demonstrators in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, held anti-regime solidarity protests and denounced the continued IRGC military operation in Iraqi Kurdistan.[32] Turkish demonstrators protested near the Iranian consulate in Istanbul on September 29.[33]

 

Upcoming Sadrist and anti-corruption demonstrations may converge with solidarity protests against the Iranian regime. Iraqi demonstrators also held solidarity protests against the Iranian regime and set fire to Iranian flags on September 29 in Najaf, home to the most important Shia shrine.[34] The Sadrists seek to improve their bargaining position in Iraq’s ongoing government formation processes, and they may attempt to spread and tie anti-Iranian-regime sentiments to Iran’s Iraqi proxies. Anti-regime protests also may converge with upcoming demonstrations on the anniversary of Iraq’s October 2019 anti-corruption Tishreen movement. The movement coincided with similar anti-Iranian regime protests in Lebanon in October 2019 and in Iran in November 2019.

 

 

[TUFKAK]

Both sides

[marioandsonic]

On 9/20/2022 at 9:06 PM, Brick said:

"Morality Police" 

 

That's just straight out of a young adult dystopian fantasy novel shit. 

 

Don't give the GOP ideas.

[Brick]

37 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

 

Don't give the GOP ideas.

 

We already know Mike Pence looks at The Handmaid's Tale as an instruction guide. 

[Greatoneshere]

On 9/20/2022 at 9:23 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

I genuinely do wish that something would come of this, but much like just about every eruption of unrest in Iran, it will fizzle out eventually.

 

I've noticed that the Iranian government doesn't even really bother to engage in large-scale crackdowns during these periodic bursts of unrest as they know that they have limited longevity, so why bother making the effort to quash it?

 

I had the exact same thought. The fascism is too entrenched. It would require armed and widespread revolution at this point.

[Jason]

On 9/20/2022 at 6:23 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

I genuinely do wish that something would come of this, but much like just about every eruption of unrest in Iran, it will fizzle out eventually.

 

I've noticed that the Iranian government doesn't even really bother to engage in large-scale crackdowns during these periodic bursts of unrest as they know that they have limited longevity, so why bother making the effort to quash it?

 

Iranian forces shoot at protesting students, lay siege to university

WWW.JPOST.COM

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Large crowds of civilians were heading to Sharif University in Tehran on Sunday night as security forces attacked protesters.

 

[Air_Delivery]

Seems like things are deteriorating very quickly. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 02 October 2022:

 

 

Iran Crisis Update, October 2 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since S

 

 

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The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

 

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since September 21, possibly due to his reportedly worsening health.[1] An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters that intra-regime disagreements over supreme leader succession and protest management are dividing the regime elite.[2] This division suggests that Khamenei is not playing his usual role of cohering the regime during a crisis. 

 

Khamenei’s silence may have opened a leadership vacuum that other regime authorities are having to fill. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders struck a more conciliatory tone on October 2 as university students have adopted an increasingly prominent role in the protest movement. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said, “we consider [the protesting youth] our friends, and we will not allow the enemy to attack you.”[3] Salami was referring to his allegation that Iran’s international adversaries are coopting and stoking the protests to destabilize the regime. Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri met with students and celebrated their role in advancing the regime and revolution.[4] Khamenei would ordinarily play a prominent role in such messaging during a crisis, and his silence is abnormal.

 

President Ebrahim Raisi has played a minor role thus far in communicating to the protesters or the Iranian population.  His low profile is remarkable given his legal responsibilities for maintaining public order in Iran.  He may seek to avoid becoming the face of the crackdown to preserve his chances to be accepted as the next supreme leader, but it is hard to see his relative silence as anything other than weakness.

 

Anti-regime outlet IranWire has published reports claiming that security leaders have disagreed over how to respond to the protests, further indicating that they may lack guidance from the supreme leader. IranWire reported on September 24 that IRGC leaders accused other security bodies suppressing protests of negligence, citing an unidentified former Iranian official.[5] IranWire also reported on September 29 that senior IRGC officers have disagreed with the brutal treatment of protesters and instead advocated for fighting anti-regime Kurdish groups in northwestern Iran.[6] CTP cannot verify these reports.

 

Khamenei’s absence may be emboldening segments of the clerical establishment, especially in Qom, to criticize and pressure the regime more openly. Two senior clerics—Ayatollah Mustafa Mohaghegh Damad and Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani—issued statements on September 17, criticizing state security services for the death of Mahsa Amini.[7] Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani called on the regime to listen to the people’s grievances on September 25.[8] Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon published a statement allegedly from students and teachers at the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the protests.[9]

 

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement.
• Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent in Tehran.
• Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.
• Iran’s Iraqi proxies are attempting to decouple anti-corruption Tishreen movement protests from Iraqi nationalists’ anti-Iran sentiments.
• Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime spread to Lebanon.
• The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day. 

 

Supreme Leader Succession

 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 2. Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 1 that Khamenei will visit Law Enforcement (LEC) facilities in the coming days. The LEC is Iran’s premier internal security service and police force. The regime has used the LEC extensively throughout Iran to crack down on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.

 

Anti-Regime Protests

 

Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent—specifically in Tehran—on October 2. CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that demonstrations occurred in at least 13 Iranian cities in 10 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations, the majority of which occurred on or in the vicinity of university campuses.

• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Najaf Abad, Esfahan Province
• Kashan, Esfahan Province
• Shahr-e Kord, Esfahan Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (violence reported)
• Yazd, Yazd Province
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (violence reported)

 

 

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Regime security forces brutally suppressed anti-regime protests at the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran on October 2. Sharif University students reported that security personnel barricaded, shot, and arrested student protestors.[10] Some social media users reported that Basij members seized students’ cellphones and checked for footage or photographs of protests. Basijis allegedly beat students who possessed documentation of protests on their personal devices.[11] Students were still able to circulate footage of protests—and ensuing violence—to Twitter accounts reporting on ongoing demonstrations.[12] Some Sharif University students called on other local Iranian youth to visit Sharif’s campus in solidarity.[13]  Sharif University’s student newspaper was similarly able to report on the regime’s violent protest crackdown on its official Twitter account.[14] Science, Research, and Technology Minister Mohammad Ali Zolfi Gol allegedly visited the Sharif University campus to defuse tensions, likely signaling the gravity of clashes between protestors and security forces.[15] Student protestors reportedly remain unable to leave the university campus at the time of this publication.[16]

 

Sharif University protests may particularly concern the regime given the importance of the university to the military establishment. Sharif University of Technology has ties to the Iranian armed forces and supports the regime's ballistic missile development. Sharif University has previously supported the Iranian nuclear program and has close ties to the Guards.[17] The US Treasury Department sanctioned Sharif University President Rasoul Jalili in 2012 for his role in supporting human rights abuses, censorship, and terrorism perpetrated by the Iranian government.[18] 

 

Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. A Persian-language social media account tweeted that the IRGC Ground Forces Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Headquarters has called on local Kurdish militias to secure Baneh, Kurdistan Province and Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province.[19] The Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Headquarters oversees IRGC activities and security in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.[20] The account claimed that the regime’s elite security forces, such as the LEC Special Units, have been deployed to the major cities in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces, suggesting that these security forces do not have the bandwidth to cover Baneh and Mahabad.

 

The regime could escalate significantly against the protesters in Najaf Abad if they expand further. The IRGC Ground Forces 8th Najaf-e Ashraf Armored Division is headquartered around the town’s periphery.[21] The IRGC is likely sensitive to instability particularly in Najaf Abad given the location of this armored division‘s headquarters. Najaf Abad is a relatively small town with a population of around 300,000 according to 2016 estimates.[22] 

 

 

 

 

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Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

 

Iran’s Iraqi proxies are attempting to decouple anti-corruption Tishreen movement protests from Iraqi nationalists’ anti-Iran sentiments. Media channels affiliated with Iranian proxy militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) thanked peaceful Tishreen protesters, distinguishing them from the violence perpetrated by Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's followers during the October 1 protests in Baghdad.[23] AAH and KH media channels also claimed that cleavages had emerged between Tishreen protesters and the Sadrists.[24]

 

AAH, KH, and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) media channels echoed Iranian regime talking points that downplayed the severity of the protests and blamed Iran’s adversaries. AAH and KH media channels claimed that the US, United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia instigated and encouraged unfavorable reporting of the protests.[25] Proxy media channels also stressed the protests’ shrinking scale and warned that outside actors seek to divide the Iranian people.[26] LH media outlets repeatedly promoted IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami’s September 2 speech that warned the US, United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia are attempting to deceive Iran’s youth.[27]

 

Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime spread to Lebanon on October 2.[28] Several dozen women staged a solidarity protest in Beirut and chanted the Arabic translation of the popular Iranian “women, life, freedom” protest slogan.[29]

 

The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day. The IRGC conducted an artillery attack on Sidekan in Soran District, Erbil Province.[30] The IRGC has concentrated attacks on militia positions in Choman District and Soran District since September 26.[31] 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 03 October 2022:

 

 

Iran Crisis Update, October 3 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21. He spoke at a military officer graduation ceremony alongside the regime’s most senior military leaders. Khamenei appeared in stable condition during his speech. Khamenei c

 

 

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The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.[1] He spoke to a military officer graduation ceremony alongside the regime’s most senior military leaders. Khamenei appeared in stable condition during his speech.

 

Khamenei condemned the ongoing, anti-regime protests during his speech—his first public acknowledgment of the protests. Khamenei accused the US and Israel of stoking the protests and said that the greatest victims were the state security services “and the Iranian nation.” Khamenei honored the security personnel killed in the protests.

 

Khamenei may have decided to meet the military leadership for his first address on the protests to signal his support for the security establishment and for a hard line on the demonstrations. Khamenei has not typically made public spectacles of meetings with senior military officers in previous major protest waves, although he has held such meetings during non-crisis periods. The following individuals joined Khamenei:

 

• Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri
• IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami
• Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi
• LEC Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari
• Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani
• Interior Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi

 

Khamenei stated that some of the regime’s strongest female supporters do not wear the full hijab in public, indicating that the regime may relax its hijab enforcement to placate protesters. Khamenei’s remark does not likely signify a reversal of the mandatory hijab law but rather a message to the security establishment to enforce it less aggressively. Khamenei also expressed regret over the death of Mahsa Amini.

 

Key Takeaways

 

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21 to condemn the ongoing, anti-regime protests.
• Protests increased in number to at least 18 Iranian cities in 16 provinces.
• University students and faculty staged widespread protests in response to the regime’s brutal crackdown on Sharif University students.
• Iranian proxies pivoted their media messaging to match Khamenei’s speech.

 

Supreme Leader Succession

 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.[2] Khamenei spoke to a military officer graduation ceremony alongside senior military and security forces leaders. Khamenei appeared to be in no worse health than on his last such public engagement, suggesting that he may have recovered if Western reporting that his health had deteriorated was accurate.

 

Anti-Regime Protests

 

Anti-regime protests increased in number on October 3. CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that demonstrations occurred in at least 18 Iranian cities in 16 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations, all of which occurred on or in the vicinity of university campuses:

 

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (violence reported)
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Jahrom, Fars Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Gorgan, Golestan Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Khorramabad, Lorestan Province
• Damghan, Semnan Province
• Semnan City, Semnan Province
• Birjand, South Khorasan Province
• Shahriar, Tehran Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (violence reported)
• Urmia, West Azerbaijan Province
• Zanjan City, Zanjan Province

 

 

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Iranian university students and faculty staged widespread demonstrations following the regime’s brutal crackdown on Sharif University protestors on October 2. Science, Research, and Technology Minister Mohammad Ali Zolfi Gol met with Sharif University President Rasoul Jalili the following day.[3] Sharif University’s Students Basij Organization—which is an extension of the Iranian security services—released a statement condemning the regime’s response to October 2 protests, signaling the gravity of clashes between protestors and security forces.[4] Sharif University announced that its classes will be held virtually until further notice.[5] The Iranian Teacher’s Trade Association released a statement urging all teachers and students to boycott classes and join nationwide strikes and protests on October 3.[6] Footage circulating on social media suggests that university students are continuing to organize and attend protests, despite reports of heavy security presence in major Iranian university campuses.[7] Protests were documented in several universities in Tehran including Shahid Beheshti University, which the EU sanctioned in 2011 for its ties to the Iranian nuclear program.[8] Anti-regime demonstrations at Sharif and Shahid Beheshti Universities may particularly concern the regime given the importance of these institutions to Iranian nuclear proliferation and military efforts.

 

 

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Iranian high school girls are increasingly participating in protests throughout Iran. Social media users circulated footage of Iranian highschoolers purportedly chanting anti-regime slogans and destroying pictures of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[9] The regime will likely face difficult decisions if young people continue to demonstrate in this fashion.

 

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

 

Iranian proxies pivoted to match messaging from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s October 3 speech. IRGC media channels amplified Khamenei’s accusation that US and Israeli agents orchestrated riots in Iran.[10] Iraqi proxy media channels and Lebanese Hezbollah’s Al Ahed news website highlighted the same narrative.[11] Proxy media channels had not emphasized Israel in their October 2 claims of foreign interference. Their pivot to emphasize accusations of Israeli agitators in reaction to Khamenei’s speech suggests that Khamenei is redirecting Axis of Resistance messaging in a more anti-Israel direction.

 

The IRGC likely attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the eighth consecutive day. An Iraqi media source stated that the IRGC attacked positions in Sidekan, Soran District, Erbil Province.[12] The source said the attack did not cause casualties or damage any property. CTP cannot independently validate this report.

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

@Commissar SFLUFAN FYI your text in the quoted portions shows up gray. Can't read it without some effort :P 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

@Commissar SFLUFAN FYI your text in the quoted portions shows up gray. Can't read it without some effort :P 

 

Just changed it to white.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

@Commissar SFLUFAN FYI your text in the quoted portions shows up gray. Can't read it without some effort :P 

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Just changed it to white.

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Just changed it to white.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Use the bloody dark theme like you're supposed to!

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Use the bloody dark theme like you're supposed to!

 

c1c2c9 4 lyfe

 

Why can't we just use the default text color that automatically adapts properly to whatever theme you're on?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Iran schoolgirls remove hijabs in protests against government

WWW.BBC.COM

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Dramatic scenes show teenagers waving headscarves and chanting against clerical authorities.

 

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Schoolgirls in Iran have been waving their headscarves in the air and chanting against clerical authorities, in an unprecedented show of support for the protests engulfing the country.

 

Videos verified by the BBC showed demonstrations inside schoolyards and on the streets of several cities.

 

They echoed the wider unrest sparked by the death last month of a woman who was detained for breaking the hijab law.

 

In Karaj, girls reportedly forced an education official out of their school.

 

Footage posted on social media on Monday showed them shouting "shame on you" and throwing what appear to be empty water bottles at the man until he retreats through a gate.

 

 

 

Iranian schoolgirls take up battlecry as protests continue | Iran | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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As country mourns teenager killed in demonstrations, video shows how female-led protests have spread to the classroom

 

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High school girls have become the latest Iranians to join anti-government protests in large numbers, as the country mourned a teenager killed in the first days of protests.

 

Nika Shahkarami, who lived in Tehran and would have turned 17 on Sunday, vanished in September. Her family found her body in a detention centre’s morgue 10 days later, BBC Persian reported.

 

On Tuesday, President Ebrahim Raisi called for unity against the protests even as they continued to grow, bringing together Iranians across ethnic and class divides, despite the government crackdown.

 

He repeated the official government line that the protest movement was driven by foreign provocateurs but did acknowledge Iranians were angry about the “shortcomings” of the Islamic Republic.

 

However public fury is so widespread that even one hardline daily newspaper openly challenged the authorities, accusing them of being in denial about their own failings and unpopularity.

 

“Neither foreign enemies nor domestic opposition can take cities into a state of riot without a background of discontent,” an editorial in the Jomhuri Eslami said. “The denial of this fact will not help.”

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 04 October 2022:

 

Iran Crisis Update, October 4 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces on October 4, primarily around universities and high schools.

 

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The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

 

University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces on October 4, primarily around universities and high schools. Students expressed frustration with the regime and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

 

The student protesters are a generation younger than the youth who played a prominent role in the Green Movement in 2009, during which Iranians took to the streets to protest the fraud-plagued reelection of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. These protests will likely influence this younger generation’s formative years in a fashion similar to the way the Green Movement affected the Iranian youth at the time. It will be interesting to observe how the experiences in those earlier demonstrations of the parents of young people protesting today shape both generations.

 

It is unclear how long the university and high school students will sustain their protests. The regime may not use the same brutality and force that it has previously used throughout the crackdown against young people. The continuation of the student demonstrations could afford the other segments of the protest movement time to rest before returning to the streets, however.

 

Key Takeaways

• Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces.
• Senior Iranian political and security officials overwhelmingly echoed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hard line on the protests.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) continued attacking anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the ninth consecutive day.
• Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) promoted a conspiracy theory alleging Mahsa Amini committed suicide to trigger civil unrest in Iran.

 

Supreme Leader Succession

 

There was nothing significant to report today.

 

Anti-Regime Protests

 

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces on October 4. CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Bushehr City, Bushehr Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Marivan, Kurdistan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Babol, Mazandaran Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province
• Urmia, West Azerbaijan Province
• Yazd City, Yazd Province
• Zanjan City, Zanjan Province

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Najafabad, Esfahan Province
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province 

 

 

 

 

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Senior Iranian political and security officials overwhelmingly echoed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s talking points on the protests. These individuals include President Ebrahim Raisi, Parliament Speaker Brigadier General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, Interior Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, Expediency Discernment Council Chairman Sadegh Amoli Larijani, Guardian Council Secretary Ahmad Jannati, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri.[1]

 

These individuals all accused the US and Israel of coopting and stoking the protests against the regime—in line with Khamenei’s remarks from October 3. They framed the protesters as rioters and seditionists. Bagheri, Vahidi, and Amoli Larijani praised the state security services and framed them as heroes and victims of the protests. All these officials expressed little to no sympathy for the protesters and their grievances—a departure from the somewhat more conciliatory tone that Bagheri and IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami have been using.

 

Anti-regime militant group Jaish al Adl vowed to retaliate against the regime for killing protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The group stated on October 1 that it will “enter the field with all its power to hold the regime accountable.”  The group also denied its involvement in the deadly clashes between protests and regime security forces in Zahedan on September 30. Jaish al Adl operates around the Iran-Pakistan border region and regularly conducts attacks against regime security forces.

 

The IRGC Intelligence Organization released a statement on October 2 vowing to avenge the security forces personnel who died in the deadly clashes in Zahedan.[2] The IRGC Intelligence Organization condemned “separatist groups” in the statement, alluding to Jaish al Adl. Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib threatened on October 2 to retaliate against the “terrorists” responsible for the clashes as well.[3]

 

President Joe Biden issued a statement condemning the regime crackdown and expressing support for the protesters.[4] Biden stated that the US is “making it easier for Iranians to access the Internet, including through facilitating greater access to secure, outside platforms and services.” Biden also stated that the US will impose “further costs.”

 

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

 

The IRGC continued attacking anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the ninth consecutive day. The IRGC attacked a village near Sidekan, Soran District, Erbil Province.[5] The IRGC attacked the village with a Mohajer-6 drone, which is capable of carrying glide bombs and anti-armor guided munitions.[6] IRGC attacks targeting Sidekan have not included drones since September 26.

 

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) promoted a conspiracy theory alleging Mahsa Amini committed suicide to trigger civil unrest in Iran. LH-affiliated Al Manar aired a segment that discussed and elaborated on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s October 3 statement that Mahsa Amini died under “mysterious circumstances.” Al Manar pundit Abdo Laqis reiterated Khamenei’s claim that Iranian security forces did not harm Amini and claimed that Amini plotted with Israeli agents to commit suicide while in Iranian Law Enforcement Command custody.[7]

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Women students tell Iran's president to 'get lost' as unrest rages

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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Raisi was visiting their university campus, condemning protesters enraged by the death of a woman in custody.

 

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Female students in Tehran chanted "get lost" as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited their university campus on Saturday and condemned protesters enraged by the death of a young woman in custody, videos on social media showed.

 

Raisi addressed professors and students at Alzahra University in Tehran, reciting a poem that equated "rioters" with flies, as nationwide demonstrations entered a fourth week.

 

A video posted on Twitter by the activist 1500tasvir website showed what it said were women students chanting "Raisi get lost" and "Mullahs get lost" as the president visited their campus. Another social media video showed students chanting: "We don't want a corrupt guest", in reference to Raisi.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

 

Could this topple the regime? And if so, what replaces it? And does the west embrace a more liberal (but not fully liberal) Iran if the possibility arises?

[SuperSpreader]

26 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Could this topple the regime? And if so, what replaces it? And does the west embrace a more liberal (but not fully liberal) Iran if the possibility arises?

 

It's probably in our interest to guide a new regime in our favor 

[mclumber1]

Friendship ended with Saudi Arabia, now friends with Iran 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Could this topple the regime?

 

Probably not.

 

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

And if so, what replaces it?

 

Only Allah knows.

 

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

And does the west embrace a more liberal (but not fully liberal) Iran if the possibility arises?

 

I would hope that the West would just leave Iran the hell alone, no matter what.

[GeneticBlueprint]

6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I would hope that the West would just leave Iran the hell alone, no matter what.

 

Oh come on we have a winning record with that kind of stuff.

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Gunshots and blasts heard at Mahsa Amini protests in Iran | Iran | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Government officials struggle to end demonstrations sparked by death in police custody of Kurdish woman

 

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Gunshots and explosions were heard in the Iranian Kurdish city of Sanandaj on Monday as the protests over the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini continued to unfold across the country.

 

Government officials are struggling to end the protests led by young Iranians, especially women, previously regarded as uninterested by politics.

 

The British government is imminently expected to announce a first round of sanctions against Iranian officials deemed to be violently suppressing the demonstrations.

In an ominous development for the regime, more than 1,000 workers at the Bushehr and Damavand petrochemical plants carried out a threat to go on strike, chanting “death to the dictator”. The government will be desperate to ensure Iran’s profitable oil industry continues in production, and such protests do not spread through the industry,

 

 

 

 

[Greatoneshere]

I really want a revolution in Iran, but all I expect are crackdowns and throwing people in prison.

[GeneticBlueprint]

On 10/3/2022 at 8:47 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Use the bloody dark theme like you're supposed to!

 

I wanted you to know that this post prompted me to try the dark theme for the last week.

 

It's unusable on mobile I don't know how you can stand it. :P

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

 

I wanted you to know that this post prompted me to try the dark theme for the last week.

 

It's unusable on mobile I don't know how you can stand it. :P

 

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah dark theme is bad on mobile.