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Microsoft/Activision Blizzard Acquisition - Information Thread, update: The Deal Has Closed

Bacon

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crispy4000

crispy4000

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Firewithin said:

do people really still think this wont go through eventually?


It was never a done deal, the odds have just been shifting back and forth.

 

I think most people, myself included, took for granted it’d close when Sony lost their case and all these random cloud gaming contracts appeared.

 

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crispy4000

crispy4000

Posted
Posted

On cloud gaming…

 

I think there’s little doubt Microsoft would have leverage over pretty much every other company that could enter the space right now.  Even Google if they had somehow played their hand perfectly.
 

It’d probably take an unholy alliance to challenge them seriously.  Amazon and Apple couldn’t do it on their own.  But they could partner exclusively with major publishers, or Sony themselves.  There’s inroads, but it would come from big business.  Maybe even GeForce Now becoming part of Amazon Prime.

 

I just don’t buy that all avenues would be closed.  But it would need to involve more tech giants getting their greedy hands all over this industry. That’s a hard sell after Stadia, Microsoft’s lead, and it being largely unproven that gamers are excited about cloud gaming to begin with.

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SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

On cloud gaming…

 

I think there’s little doubt Microsoft would have leverage over pretty much every other company that could enter the space right now.  Even Google if they had somehow played their hand perfectly.
 

It’d probably take an unholy alliance to challenge them seriously.  Amazon and Apple couldn’t do it on their own.  But they could partner exclusively with major publishers, or Sony themselves.  There’s inroads, but it would come from big business.  Maybe even GeForce Now becoming part of Amazon Prime.

 

I just don’t buy that all avenues would be closed.  But it would need to involve more tech giants getting their greedy hands all over this industry. That’s a hard sell after Stadia, Microsoft’s lead, and it being largely unproven that gamers are excited about cloud gaming to begin with.

 

The most "fair" way is to establish a global organization with different gov business representatives where all streaming providers have to aquire membership but have no actual vote/power and the members vote on streaming regulations/rules and who can get exclusivity or not. 

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Yes, I genuinely believe this deal is now effectively DOA.

Wouldn’t this be the case after EU/US blocks it? I though it was previously discussed that the legal route is very much a viable option in UK. 
 

If this fails, I can’t imagine Phil will continue in his position. 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brian said:

Wouldn’t this be the case after EU/US blocks it? I though it was previously discussed that the legal route is very much a viable option in UK. 
 

If this fails, I can’t imagine Phil will continue in his position. 

 

The legal route in the UK is MUCH less viable than the US where the FTC gets routinely laughed out of court (unsure about the EU).

 

MS/ABK will now appeal the decision to the Competition Appeals Tribunal (CAT) who will determine the validity of the appeal based on these grounds:

 

Quote

(a) to what extent (if any) the appellant contends that the decision appealed against was based on an error of fact or was wrong in law or both; and
(b) to what extent (if any) the appellant is appealing against the exercise of a discretion by OFCOM, by the Secretary of State or by another person.
The CAT must decide the appeal on the merits and by reference to the grounds of appeal set out in the notice of appeal (s. 195(2)). Its decisions may be appealed only on a point of law, with the permission of the CAT or the appellate court, to the Court of Appeal or to the Court of Session (s. 196).

 

If the MS/ABK appeal to the CAT is successful, the case goes BACK to the CMA for re-adjudication.  My understanding is that there is an appeal process to the actual UK judicial system itself, but the specifics of how that gets executed are very murky to me.

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SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The legal route in the UK is MUCH less viable than the US where the FTC gets routinely laughed out of court (unsure about the EU).

 

MS/ABK will now appeal the decision to the Competition Appeals Tribunal (CAT) who will determine whether the validity of the appeal based on these grounds:

 

 

If the MS/ABK appeal to the CAT is successful, the case goes BACK to the CMA for re-adjudication.  My understanding is that there is an appeal process to the actual UK judicial system itself, but the specifics of how that gets executed are very murky to me.

 

So it's let me tell daddy on you and now please change your mind this time 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

My understanding is that there is an appeal process to the actual UK judicial system itself, but the specifics of how that gets executed are very murky to me.

 

After some discussion on ResetERA, it would seem that the only vehicle for MS/ABK to get this case into the actual UK civil court system would be to file a lawsuit against the UK government/CMA.  The actual CAT/CMA ruling itself CANNOT be appealed into the UK civil court system.

 

Edit - further information from ResetERA:

 

Quote

In the event that Microsoft appeals to the CAT and the CAT then rules in favour of the CMA, MS can try and take it to the Court of Appeal in the U.K. but MS needs to get leave (permission) from the CAT to do so (which is unlikely) and even then the COA would review on the same judicial review standards that the CAT used in reaching its original decision.

 

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crispy4000

crispy4000

Posted
Posted

The procedural part of this has never interested me as much as the arguments and fallout.  The way I see it, it’s just postponing a final, final answer until over 6 months from now.

 

But hey, now we can talk about what Activision looks like on their own again, and what Microsoft’s steps are when/if this fails.  I kind of like the idea of Bestheda getting more of the attention for now.  And maybe no Games Pass price increase so soon?

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crispy4000

crispy4000

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dodger said:

I just want this saga over with at this point. The real cost to MS is going to be the opportunity cost of all the other studios they could have acquired while this ties them up for two fucking years now.

 

Maybe, but they definitely should have taken this shot IMO.  The benefits of it going through dramatically outweigh the costs of it failing.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

The procedural part of this has never interested me as much as the arguments and fallout.  It’s just postponing a final, final answer until over 6 months from now, the way I see it.

 

I'm really quite the complete opposite - I'm ALL about the procedural aspects of this and largely indifferent to the fallout (was that a pun on your part?)! :lol:

 

LET ME SEE THE SAUSAGE-MAKING IN ITS FULL GLORY!

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TwinIon

TwinIon

Posted
Posted

Read through the bit from the provisional findings report about the impact of the merger on cloud gaming, and it basically comes down to the idea that MS is already well positioned in cloud gaming and that they'd have the incentive to make Activision Blizzard games exclusive, which would give them an even stronger position. I don't really disagree with that at a base level, but it seems like a shallow analysis. I like this analysis from associate professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at the University College London School of Management (via Polygon) where the author breaks down cloud gaming as four different types: as a feature, platform, complement, and as input. He notes that these do not necessarily compete with each other, and the markets should be considered individually.

 

More to the point, if we imagine a world where game streaming follows the lead of audio and video to become the standard way people experience the medium, yeah, MS might have an early technological advantage, but that disappears pretty quickly. Microsoft might make more money from the back end of cloud gaming than Nintendo or Sony, but in the end it's the content that will likely determine overall marketshare, and right now Microsoft is behind in that regard.

 

To me this feels like preventing Comcast from buying NBC because you thought their tech stack would give them an unfair advantage in streaming against Disney and Warner.

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

When’s the last time one of these acquisitions has been blocked by a government?

Nvidia and ARM is the last one I remember. Technically not blocked but had zero chance to be approved so Nvidia backed out. 

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TwinIon

TwinIon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

When’s the last time one of these acquisitions has been blocked by a government?

The British CMA has blocked a number of deals. Apparently in 2021 they blocked ~5.5% of the deals they reviewed, and if you go back farther they've blocked some pretty big ones like Fox and Sky trying to merge, some big railway companies, and Facebook buying Giphy. Here's an article form July 2022 that says they've intervened on 37% of all deals in the software category.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

Read through the bit from the provisional findings report about the impact of the merger on cloud gaming, and it basically comes down to the idea that MS is already well positioned in cloud gaming and that they'd have the incentive to make Activision Blizzard games exclusive, which would give them an even stronger position. I don't really disagree with that at a base level, but it seems like a shallow analysis. I like this analysis from associate professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at the University College London School of Management (via Polygon) where the author breaks down cloud gaming as four different types: as a feature, platform, complement, and as input. He notes that these do not necessarily compete with each other, and the markets should be considered individually.

 

More to the point, if we imagine a world where game streaming follows the lead of audio and video to become the standard way people experience the medium, yeah, MS might have an early technological advantage, but that disappears pretty quickly. Microsoft might make more money from the back end of cloud gaming than Nintendo or Sony, but in the end it's the content that will likely determine overall marketshare, and right now Microsoft is behind in that regard.

 

To me this feels like preventing Comcast from buying NBC because you thought their tech stack would give them an unfair advantage in streaming against Disney and Warner.

 

The cloud-based reasoning does make it seem like the CMA had made up its mind to block and then crafted a post-hoc justification that contains just enough "reasonable" theoretical assumptions about the future of cloud gaming to pass the "rationality" standard upon appeal.  If anything, the CMA smartly tossed Sony's console-based SLC arguments to the curb in order to avoid the appearance of partiality to the market leader.

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