Chris- Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/sac-alum-plotkin-makes-a-massive-short-bet-against-nintendo Quote Plotkin’s fund was short 1.2 million shares, or about 0.8 percent of Nintendo’s outstanding stock, according to the latest filing with the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It’s the largest such trade against the company since at least 2013, according to Bloomberg data. The hedge fund has been steadily increasing its position, with the latest trade on July 26, ahead of Nintendo’s quarterly earnings announcement on Tuesday. Quote Nintendo will report first quarter earnings on Tuesday after the market close. Analysts estimate revenue will rise 21 percent from a year earlier, while operating profit will jump 58 percent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosephManderley Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Either he knows something, which is illegal, or its a big risk.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyPiranha Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Sounds like someone is super pissed about those Pokémon go switch games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 They should have invested in MoviePass instead 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSoxFan9 said: They should have invested in MoviePass instead OLOLOLOLOLOLOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 I never thought I would say this, but I am rooting against the hedge fund. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Based off Indie’s sales, I can’t see how Nintendo will miss. Good luck to the guy. I know I would be a nervous wreck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Nintendo reverses Japan’s 10 year video game market decline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosephManderley Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 It's not looking good for his bet... https://m.nasdaq.com/article/nintendo-profit-beats-expectations-despite-soft-switch-sales-20180731-00148 Nintendo profits up 88% - beating expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewDean84 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Salty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paperclyp Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 It wouldn’t shock me if the Switch fizzled out, but it’s pretty ballsy to go that far with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 I am sure the bet is based on not believing the 20 million console delivery target. The holiday season will ultimately be telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewDean84 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Paperclyp said: It wouldn’t shock me if the Switch fizzled out, but it’s pretty ballsy to go that far with it. It'd shock most of the industry, since its hardware sales and software sales are knocking it out of the park. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Hardware Q1: 2017 - 1.97m 2018 - 1.88mSoftware Q1: 2017 - 8.14m 2018 - 17.96m ITD: Odyssey 11.17m (+ 760k)Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 10.35m (+ 1.13m)Zelda BOTW 9.32m (+ 840k)Splatoon 2 6.76m (+ 740k)1-2 Switch 2.45m (+ 160k)ARMS 2.01m (+ 160k)Kirby 1.89m (+ 630k)Xenoblade 2 1.42m (+ 110k)Labo 1.39m combinedDK: TF 1.40 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwinIon Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 I wouldn't bet against a Pokemon game coming out for the holiday season. It doesn't matter if the game is good or not, it's going to sell consoles and those consoles will need more software. I suppose this makes sense is if these guys think Nintendo is going to miss their own targets. I'm not a financial analyst or anything, but I've seen Apple's stock drop after record quarters because they didn't sufficiently beat market expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paperclyp Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, AndrewDean84 said: It'd shock most of the industry, since its hardware sales and software sales are knocking it out of the park. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html I’m aware of the sales. The biggest thing the Switch has going for it at this point is that 3rd parties and indies have taken it seriously. But I don’t trust Nintendo to maintain a good thing. I’m not convinced they understand why people like the Switch yet, their online service is stuck in 1997, and I don’t trust their software output. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JosephManderley Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 As I type this, Nintendo's shares are up over 6%. I think the hedge fund has shit the bed on this one.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 A good recap on Plotkin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris- Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 5 hours ago, JosephManderley said: As I type this, Nintendo's shares are up over 6%. I think the hedge fund has shit the bed on this one.... Nah, they've made it out alright based on the timing of their position: Quote Plotkin is still likely in-the-money on his short bet. The average price of his position is probably around 41,000 yen to 42,000 yen, according to regulatory disclosures and Bloomberg calculations that assume he began short selling in early May. That’s still higher than Wednesday’s intraday price of 39,330 yen, despite the day’s rally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameDadGrant Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Business, business, business. Numbers. Is this working? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XxEvil AshxX Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Whoever this guy is, I bet he's a shitty tipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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