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Massdriver

Texas Democrats plot path to flipping state in 2020

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The state party has high hopes and ambitious goals in a new document outlining their path to turning the state blue.

 

The Texas Democratic Party is pulling back the curtain on its 2020 strategy ahead of the Houston presidential debate, releasing a plan to flip the state that targets 2.6 million potential Democratic voters who are not registered yet and commits to deploying over 1,000 organizers by the end of the election cycle.

 

The plan broadly seeks to register as many as possible of the 2.6 million Texans it says are not registered to vote but would vote Democratic if registered. There are another 2.4 million voters from minority communities who are registered to vote but did not cast a ballot in 2018 and "are primed to be mobilized in a presidential year," according to the plan.

 

To close those gaps, the party offers four possible paths based on its data analysis: increasing turnout in communities of color (over 400,000 new votes), increasing turnout in urban, reliably blue counties (at least 225,000 new votes), registering voters in the politically changing suburbs (over 130,000 new votes) and reaching out to conservative rural voters (more than 100,000 new votes).

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/09/08/texas-democrats-blue-plan/

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There's a reasonable chance that the Texas House could go blue.  It's more important than it seems since Dems could influence redistricting which hold for 10 years.

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9 hours ago, Spork3245 said:

Is this dissimilar to their plot to flip Texas in 2016? 

 

Are you trolling homeboy? Did you not see what happened in 2018?

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Only 49% def/consider voting for Trump in Texas is a real bad sign.

 

The gun Q's in the link are interesting. A majority of young Texans oppose an assault weapons ban, but older people do, and a slight majority are in favor overall.

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7 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

 

Presidential =/= midterms 

 

Ok? You still didn't bother to read the article, which is lame.

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1 minute ago, Jose said:

 

Ok? You still didn't bother to read the article, which is lame.

 

Okay? Your aspirations that Texas will be going blue in the 2020 general is fairly lame.

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2 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

 

Okay? Your aspirations that Texas will be going blue in the 2020 general is fairly lame.

 

Ok so you definitely are trolling. Moving on.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Ok so you definitely are trolling. Moving on.

 

 

 

I’m sorry you think Texas will go blue in the general.

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28 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Only 49% def/consider voting for Trump in Texas is a real bad sign.

 

The gun Q's in the link are interesting. A majority of young Texans oppose an assault weapons ban, but older people do, and a slight majority are in favor overall.

 

The latest poll in Texas has Warren in second over O'Rourke, which is just insanely great news for her if it keeps up. I was told by a friend of mine in Houston that she was no chance of winning Texas in the GE. We shall see.

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I can’t wait to bump this thread in November 2020.

I’ve read basically this same argument every 4-ish years since the lead up to the 2008 election. I think I was always hopeful each time, but now? I’ll keep my pessimism on hand as you can never be disappointed if you always expect the worst.

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I’d take the flip Texas talk more seriously if Dems didn’t lose Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida in the last presidential election. 

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8 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

I can’t wait to bump this thread in November 2020.

I’ve read basically this same argument every 4-ish years since the lead up to the 2008 election. I think I was always hopeful each time, but now? I’ll keep my pessimism on hand as you can never be disappointed if you always expect the worst.

 

You bump away my dude because there is not a single person in this thread that said victory is expected.

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Ohio is only marginally closer in voting than Texas.

 

And those other states were lost by less than 1.25% a lot of which can be directly tied to voter suppression from Republicans, and the increasing urban rural divide

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21 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

The latest poll in Texas has Warren in second over O'Rourke, which is just insanely great news for her if it keeps up. I was told by a friend of mine in Houston that she was no chance of winning Texas in the GE. We shall see.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460727-biden-sanders-and-warren-lead-trump-in-new-texas-poll

 

I don't think that ever happened in 2016.

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6 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Ohio is only marginally closer in voting than Texas.

 

And those other states were lost by less than 1.25% a lot of which can be directly tied to voter suppression from Republicans, and the increasing urban rural divide

Oh look, polls for Ohio look better for Trump than they do in Texas

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Quote

With the Trumperdämmerung upon us, Hillary Clinton is looking to expand the map. Ahead nationally by double digits in some polls, her campaign—and many a political pundit—now believes it can flip a few traditionally red states into her column. On Monday, the campaign announced it would pump $2 million into its Arizona operation and send top surrogates, from Michelle Obama to Bernie Sanders, to the desert. Meanwhile, the YouGov polling model has Clinton pulling into a narrow lead in Georgia, one of only three states it brands a tossup.

 

https://newrepublic.com/article/137865/no-arizona-georgia-not-swing-states

 

:daydream: 

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20 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Both states were closer than Ohio.

 

Maybe Dems should think about why they’ve turned Ohio red instead of fantasizing about Texas 

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Even if Trump wins Texas in 2020, it'll not be for any of the reasons listed itt, and it completely misses the point of the investment.

 

First, these are Texas Democrats. Regardless of whether or not Texas votes Democratic for president, why would you not want investments on the local and Congressional level to open up new pickup opportunities and help with redistricting soon? Their work in Texas is literally already paying off. Down ballot, they made huge gains in most levels of government including the courts

 

Been hearing it since 2008? I get it. Look at the trends. Obama lost it in the teens despite an overwhelming popular vote win. Hillary won the popular vote by only 2 points yet did far better in Texas and Arizona. Democrats were competitive for both Senate seats in 2018 and won one of them. 

 

Texas could vote red and the people who are saying they called it still won't realize they're not making any good points. The people who dismiss the potential of a blue Texas next year likely thought Pennsylvania was fools gold to Republicans who kept trying to win every four years. They eventually did. Republicans made strides in Wisconsin for years before finally winning it in 2016.

 

We had guys like jsher on IGN making the same arguments about Virginia in 2008: I'll believe it when I see it, it hasn't voted democratic since the 60s, so what if democrats won in the 2006 midterms, that's different than the presidency.

 

I'm imagining some of you in 1992: "Haha democrats are investing in Vermont and California I'm smart preemptive bernie2016 2020 and 2024"

 

You have to make investments and work to turn states, and it doesn't happen overnight. A Texas loss in 2020 wouldn't make investments in Texas for naught. States' allegiances change every decade. Republicans played a long game to win the south. Democrats have played a long game to win the west, to which Texas shares similarities. 

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If Texas turned to a swing state and voted Democrat in the presidential election I would imagine there would be a level of panic within the state that would cause some NC or WI-style shenanigans should it ever turn blue at the state level. But like exponentially worse because everything is bigger in Texas I guess.

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I mean this thread is only about Dems trying hard in 2020 to take Texas. Victory isn't guaranteed or even expected, but what the fuck, would you prefer they don't try at all? 

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Investments take time to mature. The state Dems in Texas are right to continue to build their election apparatus, targeting winnable races in newly urbanizing districts, but also looking to narrow margins in less competitive races to fight against the feeling of inevitability that leads to so many staying home.

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It seems like people aren't aware of the 2018 election here in Texas. I don't think Texas is going reliably blue over the next decade. I believe that we are going to turn purple and become a swing state. I don't know if 2020 will be the first year we see a complete crack form in the GOP's hold of the state, but as I said before, I think the Texas House is where you're going to see it flip first (maybe there's a ~25% chance of it happening in 2020). There is a lot of money flowing into those races right now.

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

Investments take time to mature. The state Dems in Texas are right to continue to build their election apparatus, targeting winnable races in newly urbanizing districts, but also looking to narrow margins in less competitive races to fight against the feeling of inevitability that leads to so many staying home.

 

1 hour ago, Massdriver said:

It seems like people aren't aware of the 2018 election here in Texas. I don't think Texas is going reliably blue over the next decade. I believe that we are going to turn purple and become a swing state. I don't know if 2020 will be the first year we see a complete crack form in the GOP's hold of the state, but as I said before, I think the Texas House is where you're going to see it flip first (maybe there's a ~25% chance of it happening in 2020). There is a lot of money flowing into those races right now.

 

With at least 4 large population centers and their surrounding suburbs I'm surprised that Texas hasn't been a swing state for the past four elections at least. As indicated in this thread some people are down on the idea and want the DNC to focus on other areas. Better late than never to start taking it seriously though.

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