Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Mr.Vic20]

Putin says to Stalin, hold my пиво! 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

21 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Putin says to Stalin, hold my пиво! 

Doing his best Nicholas I impression tbh

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine is silent about their progress in Kharkiv/Donetsk, but Russian millbloggers believe they (Ukraine) are doing quite well:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Also, the NordStream1 and NordStream2 natural gas pipelines (supplying Europe with gas from Russian) appear to have allegedly been blown up under the Baltic Sea. Explosions were apparently recorded on seismographs, and now there's a massive column rising to the surface.

 

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Well that should keep Germany from changing course

[PaladinSolo]

Russian AA systems are dangerous, lol. (Watch the end.)

[CitizenVectron]

Some are theorizing that the attack on the two pipelines was actually meant to hit three, but that Russia botched it:

 

 

The red and grey pipelines inside the blue square were blown up at the yellow dots. But the blue pipe was just inaugurated today as a way to supply Norwegian gas to Poland. That bottom red dot may have been intended for the blue line, since one of the top two yellow dots already hit the red line.

 

They look close from this vantage, but in reality are 10-20km apart, so maybe a stretch.

 

Also, it's also important to note that NordStream 1 is shut down, and NordStream 2 is not currently in use. So who knows.

[Kal-El814]

Is Russia treating the motherland like a Civ game, where they haven't upgraded their military and they realized they don't have enough gold to do that or food tiles so they're just throwing meat at a neighboring country? I don't get it.

[CitizenVectron]

- Conscripted on Sept 21 in Moscow

- Sent to frontlines immediately without any training

- Captured by Ukrainian military

 

Also refers to the Russian army as the Soviet army, and is corrected by the Ukrainian interviewer. "What Soviet army" "Oh, right, Russian army."

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

This is well within the supposed Russian line, so it confirms that Ukraine has pushed quite far east of the Oskil in Donetsk (a continuation of the Kharkiv offensive). This is the location on the Russian map I posted earlier today:

 

 

This is very, very bad news for Russia. The Ukrainian incursion is very deep, and Lyman is being encircled. Most of the forces that fled the Kharkiv offensive went to Lyman, and Russia is basically putting its main defense there. Ukraine is simply going around it on both sides, and will likely entrap thousands of Russian troops if they don't retreat. It's the Kharkiv route all over again, only slower. If Ukraine pulls this off, then there is almost nothing between them and Svatove (major city to the northeast) and then taking back most of northern Luhansk. 

 

When Ukraine starts to retake land from the 2014 conflict, however, then you're going to see real panic in Russian circles.

[Greatoneshere]

1 hour ago, Kal-El814 said:

Is Russia treating the motherland like a Civ game, where they haven't upgraded their military and they realized they don't have enough gold to do that or food tiles so they're just throwing meat at a neighboring country? I don't get it.

 

Well, I would say Putin is treating the motherland like a Civ game, but otherwise you have it down pat. Russia's running out of ammo, troops, hardware, and looking to China, India and North Korea for help. Putin was also hoping to get more help from his allies in their CSTO (kind of like Russia's NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organization) and they're going against Putin now too. Full conscription and mobilization is in force, with no training and rusted AK-47's from WWII. Just keep throwing these poor Russians at an enemy that will in all likelihood capture or kill them quite easily. What Putin did or did not know that we all knew here is that Russia's been weak for decades. The reputation of the Soviet Union and the fact they have chemical and biological weapons (and nukes) is the only reason anyone even talks about Russia (and their oil and gas of course). But Russia has been behind on tech for decades now, military and civilian use, and the West has been keeping itself up to date militarily and thus Russia is outclassed when you give these newer weapons and tech to a competent military (Ukraine). 

 

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

When Ukraine starts to retake land from the 2014 conflict, then you're going to see real panic in Russian circles.

 

Oh baby, if Ukraine takes back that and Crimea, that'd be awesome. I only worry about Putin's response.

[CitizenVectron]

Over 115,000 Russians have fled into Georgia this week. The Russian army is now setting up a conscription site at the border. Basically: if you try to leave the country, you will be conscripted and sent to Ukraine:

 

Georgia, for its part, is making men entering the country take lie detector tests to prove they are not pro-Putin. If they are pro-war/imperialist, they are turned back. Apparently a lot of Russians are trying to cross and are complaining that no one in Georgia speaks Russian (though many/most actually do), and that Russians are being treated poorly. I imagine it would be like if 100,000 Americans fled into Mexico to escape Biden and then found out the rest of the world doesn't actually cater to Americans in foreign places.

 

[marioandsonic]

10 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

Well, I would say Putin is treating the motherland like a Civ game, but otherwise you have it down pat. Russia's running out of ammo, troops, hardware, and looking to China, India and North Korea for help. Putin was also hoping to get more help from his allies in their CSTO (kind of like Russia's NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organization) and they're going against Putin now too. Full conscription and mobilization is in force, with no training and rusted AK-47's from WWII. Just keep throwing these poor Russians at an enemy that will in all likelihood capture or kill them quite easily. What Putin did or did not know that we all knew here is that Russia been weak for decades. The reputation of the Soviet Union and the fact they have chemical and biological weapons (and nukes) is the only reason anyone even talks about Russia (and their oil and gas of course). But Russia has been behind on tech for decades now, military and civilian use, and the West has been keeping itself up to date militarily and thus Russia is outclassed when you give these newer weapons and tech to a competent military (Ukraine). 

 

 

Oh baby, if Ukraine takes back that and Crimea, that'd be awesome. I only worry about Putin's response.

 

Jesus.  I knew things weren't going great for Russia, but I didn't think it'd be this bad.

 

Putin is looking less like Stalin and more like Nicholas II.

[Greatoneshere]

9 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

Jesus.  I knew things weren't going great for Russia, but I didn't think it'd be this bad.

 

Putin is looking less like Stalin and more like Nicholas II.

 

He's literally arresting every man 18 and over that's within Russia's borders and basically forcing them to fight with no training and just dumped on the front lines of this war. Russians have been leaving en masse to Georgia, Mongolia, China, Kazahkstan, and more. I mean, a full conscription in 2022? Putin's lost his damn mind. The fact he lied and said it would just be calling up 300,000 reservists, etc. does not seem to be true, and there are protests all over the country as well. On top of the enormous sanctions Russia's been hit with for months now, living in Russia right now is a nightmare I would imagine.

[ThreePi]

To think the humanitarian crisis wasn't Ukrainians fleeing Ukrain, but Russians fleeing Russia.

[Greatoneshere]

19 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Over 115,000 Russians have fled into Georgia this week. The Russian army is now setting up a conscription site at the border. Basically: if you try to leave the country, you will be conscripted and sent to Ukraine:

 

Georgia, for its part, is making men entering the country take lie detector tests to prove they are not pro-Putin. If they are pro-war/imperialist, they are turned back. Apparently a lot of Russians are trying to cross and are complaining that no one in Georgia speaks Russian (though many/most actually do), and that Russians are being treated poorly. I imagine it would be like if 100,000 Americans fled into Mexico to escape Biden and then found out the rest of the world doesn't actually cater to Americans in foreign places.

 

I mean, can we really blame Georgia? Russia/Putin has been fucking with their country by fomenting Russian separatists for years in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (similar to Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine and Transnistria in Moldova) and I can't imagine Georgia is too thrilled to potentially boost the separatist numbers in those two areas with more Russians flooding in, probably not going to go back either. The separatist states in Georgia are the main reason they are struggling to join both NATO and the EU, which would really help them out if they could. And right to their south is the eternal border disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which I imagine worries them too, being a small country wedged in between Russia to the north and those two countries to the south.

[mclumber1]

14 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Over 115,000 Russians have fled into Georgia this week. The Russian army is now setting up a conscription site at the border. Basically: if you try to leave the country, you will be conscripted and sent to Ukraine:

 

Georgia, for its part, is making men entering the country take lie detector tests to prove they are not pro-Putin. If they are pro-war/imperialist, they are turned back. Apparently a lot of Russians are trying to cross and are complaining that no one in Georgia speaks Russian (though many/most actually do), and that Russians are being treated poorly. I imagine it would be like if 100,000 Americans fled into Mexico to escape Biden and then found out the rest of the world doesn't actually cater to Americans in foreign places.

 

 

It doesn't help that Russia pulled a dick move on Georgia in 2008.  Georgia I'm sure hasn't forgotten!

[Greatoneshere]

Just now, mclumber1 said:

 

It doesn't help that Russia pulled a dick move on Georgia in 2008.  Georgia I'm sure hasn't forgotten!

 

Hah we posted at the same time - but exactly.

[CitizenVectron]

Visual confirmation that Ukraine has retaken Karoviy Yar, which is the green circle below:

 

 

The bridgehead over the Oskil appears to have likely joined with the push from the south. I would expect at this point that the entire orange zone between Yarova and Seredney is under Ukrainian control.

 

EDIT - Additionally, Ukraine appears to have fire control over the Svatove-Kreminna supply route, and is heavily bombarding military traffic between the two.

[marioandsonic]

10 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

He's literally arresting every man 18 and over that's within Russia's borders and basically forcing them to fight with no training and just dumped on the front lines of this war. Russians have been leaving en masse to Georgia, Mongolia, China, Kazahkstan, and more. I mean, a full conscription in 2022? Putin's lost his damn mind. The fact he lied and said it would just be calling up 300,000 reservists, etc. does not seem to be true, and there are protests all over the country as well. On top of the enormous sanctions Russia's been hit with, living in Russia right now is a nightmare I would imagine.

 

Like, the entire adult male population?  That's over 60 million people!  

[Greatoneshere]

2 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

 

Like, the entire adult male population?  That's over 60 million people!  

 

Yep! As @CitizenVectron just posted earlier, they are now setting up conscription offices at the Russian-Georgian border to get Russian men before they can leave the country. I do believe it's any male aged 18 to 45, so not the entire adult male population, but most. He can't get them all, he's trying to grab who he can.

 

You can see in @Commissar SFLUFAN ISW analysis that protests and even revolts have broken out in the country as a result of this.

[mclumber1]

Perhaps we can expect a Russian civil war in the near future?

[CitizenVectron]

The "protests" so far have been very small. A major component of the Russian/Soviet social compact is this: The people agree to stay out of politics, and in exchange the government lets them be. As a result, most Russians will say "I don't care about politics," and this really means that as long as the government doesn't interfere with their lives, they are okay with the Russian oligarchy taking all the wealth and doing horrible things. The only time the Russian people/culture will care is if this compact is broken, which is kind of being done now. They are okay with foreign imperial wars, so long as they aren't forced to take part and die. But if they are, then the compact is broken, and they care about their government. It's really very similar to the US. It's why the second Iraq War was possible, and wouldn't have been if there had been a mandatory draft. The US learned from Vietnam, but Russia hasn't learned from their own past; if you keep a large, professional standing army, then the general pop will let you get away with anything. Russia doesn't have that army, so to win this war they are going to try and break the social compact.

[Mr.Vic20]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

The "protests" so far have been very small. A major component of the Russian/Soviet social compact is this: The people agree to stay out of politics, and in exchange the government lets them be. As a result, most Russians will say "I don't care about politics," and this really means that as long as the government doesn't interfere with their lives, they are okay with the Russian oligarchy taking all the wealth and doing horrible things. The only time the Russian people/culture will care is if this compact is broken, which is kind of being done now. They are okay with foreign imperial wars, so long as they aren't forced to take part and die. But if they are, then the compact is broken, and they care about their government. It's really very similar to the US. It's why the second Iraq War was possible, and wouldn't have been if there had been a mandatory draft. The US learned from Vietnam, but Russia hasn't learned from their own past; if you keep a large, professional standing army, then the general pop will let you get away with anything. Russia doesn't have that army, so to win this war they are going to try and break the social compact.

[Greatoneshere]

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

The "protests" so far have been very small. A major component of the Russian/Soviet social compact is this: The people agree to stay out of politics, and in exchange the government lets them be. As a result, most Russians will say "I don't care about politics," and this really means that as long as the government doesn't interfere with their lives, they are okay with the Russian oligarchy taking all the wealth and doing horrible things. The only time the Russian people/culture will care is if this compact is broken, which is kind of being done now. They are okay with foreign imperial wars, so long as they aren't forced to take part and die. But if they are, then the compact is broken, and they care about their government. It's really very similar to the US. It's why the second Iraq War was possible, and wouldn't have been if there had been a mandatory draft. The US learned from Vietnam, but Russia hasn't learned from their own past; if you keep a large, professional standing army, then the general pop will let you get away with anything. Russia doesn't have that army, so to win this war they are going to try and break the social compact.

 

They have started small but the way things are going I anticipate they will increase and grow in time. Even the Russian people can't be okay with men just disappearing and going off to die - surely that breaks the compact. The fact there are protests at all in Russia is wild to me. But we'll see - either way Putin is doing everything he can to oust himself from power it seems to me.  

[marioandsonic]

7 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

Perhaps we can expect a Russian civil war in the near future?

 

I wonder if we'll see another Russian Revolution.  Get another Red October going, baby!

[mclumber1]

43 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

 

I wonder if we'll see another Russian Revolution.  Get another Red October going, baby!

 

I would think the CIA and equivalent European intelligence agencies would rather push for Russia to be broken up along ethnic lines. 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukrainian air force performing low-level bombing on the front:

 

 

[marioandsonic]

So what's the end goal here now?  Does the war keep going until Russia has no more men of fighting age left?  Will Ukraine annex part of Russian soil?  Will Putin just go full batshit crazy and use a nuke?

[Subzwari1987]

10 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

So what's the end goal here now?  Does the war keep going until Russia has no more men of fighting age left?  Will Ukraine annex part of Russian soil?  Will Putin just go full batshit crazy and use a nuke?

The war will most likely end when Putin faces the same fate as Mussolini.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Also, the war is about to face a likely slowdown in the east thanks to mud season. Twice a year, eastern and northern Ukraine are bogged down with extensive mud (from fall rain, and spring melt). The south will be better, but it will make Ukrainian advance in the east much harder. Not until the ground freezes will it be easy to move again. Although, it will then be cold, and war in eastern Europe during the winter is rough. The only possibly silver lining for Ukraine is that they will likely have much, much better winter gear than the Russians.

[CitizenVectron]

Whoever wrote this headline and article should be conscripted:

 

 

The entire thing only implies (once!) that the referendums are fake ("referendums that Kyiv and the West have denounced as a sham"), and otherwise treats the results as legitimate, and also treats the results of the 2014 Crimean referendum as legitimate. 

 

 

[Mr.Vic20]

I'm just shocked it wasn't more like 120%,  that would be more putin's style.