Microsoft Xbox Series X | S OT - Power Your Dreams, update: FTC case unredacted documents leaked, including XSX mid-generation refresh, new gyro/haptic-enabled controller, and next-generation plans for 2028

[skillzdadirecta]

34 minutes ago, The def star said:

Why is this even an argument? 

I'm STILL confused about what point is trying to be made here... I assume "something something MS evil something something" 

[crispy4000]

12 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

You are primarily interested in the hardware specs with regards to value propositions, as evidenced by what I quoted. I legitimately don’t care about your personal gaming habits, only the argument you are making about how value is measured...which you consistently make about hardware tech in this thread.

 

I'm focused in hardware specs and (diminished) value because that's all Sony and Microsoft can leaving these old consoles with.  All other incentives will be carried forward to the next gen.

 

12 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The current gen consoles will in the future represent a worse value compared to the next gen consoles if left at the same price. I already said that. But that is the future. The only comparison for a shopper today is what is on the store shelves.

 

That's 100% bullshit.  Tell it to people trying to flip their RTX 2080Ti's.

[crispy4000]

6 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

I'm STILL confused about what point is trying to be made here... I assume "something something MS evil something something" 

 

- The current gen consoles are overpriced for being at the end of their generation, and have been for some time.  We didn't need Series S at $299 to know that.

 

That's literally it.  Didn't know it'd be so controversial or mistaken for console warring.

[Duderino]

$300 for an Xbox One S or PS4 Slim in 2020 is not a great price point.  $300 for the Xbox Series S on the other hand in a few months, is a far better deal.

Yes, both current gen consoles still provide a lot of value for $300, but at this point in time we should be seeing deeper cuts.  Whatever the reason, they are not being priced yet to clear out stock.

[Brian]

7 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

I'm STILL confused about what point is trying to be made here... I assume "something something MS evil something something" 

How dare Microsoft make a product that isn’t directed to the hardcore audience that keeps this industry afloat?!

 

[crispy4000]

1 minute ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

How dare Microsoft make a product that isn’t directed to the hardcore audience that keeps this industry afloat?!

 

That hasn't even been a topic of discussion in this thread yet.  Gotta revisit "Lockhart holds the industry back" discussions for that one.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I'm focused in hardware specs and value because that's all Sony and Microsoft are leaving these old consoles with.  All other incentives will be carried forward to the next gen.

 

 

That's 100% bullshit.  Tell it to people trying to flip their RTX 2080Ti's.

Yes, YOU only care about hardware specs for the purpose of establishing value here. The market broadly does not. That is the entire point of this discourse. The old tech in these consoles does not present itself as a poor value proposition to the market today based on actual sales. Otherwise the companies would drop the price or otherwise incentivize purchases as they certainly have the margin go do so at this point. 

 

On the second point you’ll have to forgive me, but I need you to elaborate on the comparison. Because it seems a odd one to say the least.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Duderino said:

Yes, both current gen consoles still provide a lot of value for $300, but at this point in time we should be seeing deeper cuts. 

Why? Should companies sell products for less than the market will bear just for fun?

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

2 hours ago, stepee said:

people here all mad that the mcdouble is $1.80 now

I was mad when the double cheeseburger went up to $1.35

[skillzdadirecta]

8 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Why? Should companies sell products for less than the market will bear just for fun?

BCUS REEZUNZ!

[Duderino]

8 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Why? Should companies sell products for less than the market will bear just for fun?

Same reason sales happen; to clear stock, gain new consumers, and meet fiscal year goals.

[AbsolutSurgen]

I really do think it's overpriced, and since I didn't explain myself earlier:

1)  The SSD is too small for even a casual gamer

Games may shrink initially due to not having to duplicate some assets, but games have ALWAYS gotten bigger -- and their is no reason to think that this trend will change.  Once you provision 10% for wear management, and another chunk for system resources -- how much is this going to have available 420GB?  Enough for about 5 AAA games.  So, you're probably in for the base console PLUS a 1TB upgrade card (for whatever MS charges for it -- I'm guessing $100-$150).

2)  The GPU won't deliver a reasonable experience for the entire GEN

A 4TF GPU will probably give ~1080p (probably dropping to 720p on some titles) experience for next gen titles for 2-3 years (unless developers lower graphical settings).  Once the inevitable mid-cycle refresh consoles appear, I think the games designed with those consoles in mind will result in SES games that are a very poor experience.  (As an imperfect analogy, imagine gaming for the last 3 years on a hypothetical ~0.7TF Xbox One or PS4).

 

If I were to give advice to a non-enthusiast gamer, I would tell them not to buy it.  For me, $299 is too much for this experience.  My advice to them would be to wait until 2021 and pickup whatever bundle/discounted holiday package comes out on Black Friday for PS5/SeX.

 

2 hours ago, JPDunks4 said:

 

During a special Holiday sale,  for a console that'll last you a year.  Should've been $100 tops but it flew off store shelves.

About half of hardware console sales occur during November/December -- those holiday prices reflect what many/most people pay for. 

 

On the topic of how consoles are selling (NPD only reports total hardware, so this reflects combined Sony/MS/Nintendo).  Hardware sales were down 20% in 2019 from 2018 (about 25% in November/December).  Yes, during the shutdown console sales were very high (for obvious reasons) -- but before and after that wasn't the case (Jan & Feb 2020 were down 53% and 42% from 2018; Jun & Jul were down 45% and 23% from 2018).  The reality that consoles were flying off the shelves at those prices (excluding the shutdown impact) just doesn't tie with reality.

[DarkStar189]

3 hours ago, stepee said:

These are all great prices. Problem is though I have to put in my pto in by the 15th so I bet on ps5 releasing on the 10th and took that off. So now if I want to revise that guess since it obviously will be a different day should I go a week back or a week later?

Are you talking about taking the day off for the consoles release? If so I would take a day off like a week after launch. I took the day off for the PS4 and it didn't show up to my house until 6pm. Then you have the threat of servers being down. As exciting as launch days can be, they can be problematic. 

[Guest]

Just now, Duderino said:

Same reason sales happen; to clear stock, gain new consumers, and meet fiscal year goals.

So if they aren’t having issue clearing stock or meeting fiscal goals, both of which end in the creation of new customers, why would they cut the price further?

 

Because they aren’t having issues clearing stock or meeting fiscal goals. They are selling more consoles in 2020 than 2019!

[crispy4000]

31 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Yes, YOU only care about hardware specs for the purpose of establishing value here. The market broadly does not. That is the entire point of this discourse. The old tech in these consoles does not present itself as a poor value proposition to the market today based on actual sales. Otherwise the companies would drop the price or otherwise incentivize purchases as they certainly have the margin go do so at this point.

 

If this was true, holiday X1X and PS4 console sales wouldn't have slouched last year, in spite of some crazy promotions.  We also wouldn't be seeing this more recently during COVID:

 

Quote

Matter of fact, the Switch’s success actually helped supplement losses of other platforms. Microsoft and Sony will no doubt make up gains at the end of the year with their next-gen consoles. For now, however, many consumers are likely holding out until their holiday arrives to invest in Xbox or PlayStation hardware, in spite of the pandemic.

 

https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/15/us-video-game-sales-have-record-quarter-as-consumers-stay-at-home/

It sounds like you're denying that the market, broadly, has an idea the next-gen Sony and Microsoft consoles are coming.  Joe Schmoe might not care so much about teraflops and SSD speeds in specific.  But he likely knows the next Xbox and Playstation are on the way, and will be a generation leap ahead.  Sales are taking a hit as a result.

 

31 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

On the second point you’ll have to forgive me, but I need you to elaborate on the comparison. Because it seems a odd one to say the least.

 

We don't live in a bubble where people only shop based on the here and now.  Products announced for the foreseeable future are relevant for comparison, especially in the technology sector when generational shifts happen.  If you spend $300 on a One S now as opposed to a Series S two months from now for the same price, you're going to be much worse off.

 

The facts are now clearer, but the writing was on the wall long before today.

[Mercury33]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

What does that have to do with anything? I'm so confused...

 

also this

 

So again... WHY WOULD THEY DROP THE PRICE???

That’s interesting. PS3 surged like crazy later in its life cycle too. And PS2 I think is still selling since it’s basically the console equivalent of GTAV lol

[Brian]

Microsoft better have a good marketing plan to prevent a Wii U. 
 

uhhhhhh, should someone tell them? pic.twitter.com/5APRm9mTw1

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) September 8, 2020

[Guest]

1 minute ago, crispy4000 said:

 

If this was true, holiday X1X and PS4 console sales wouldn't have slouched in 2019.  We also wouldn't be seeing this more recently:

 

 

https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/15/us-video-game-sales-have-record-quarter-as-consumers-stay-at-home/

It sounds like you're denying that the market, broadly, has an idea the next-gen Sony and Microsoft consoles are coming.  Joe Schmoe might not care about teraflops and SSD speeds.  But he likely knows the next Xbox and Playstation are on the way.  And sales are taking a hit as a result.

 

 

We don't live in a bubble where people shop based only on the here and now.  Products announced for the foreseeable future are absolutely relevant for comparison, especially in the technology sector.  If you spend $300 on a One S now as opposed to a Series S two months from now, you're going to be much worse off.

 

The facts are now clear, but the writing was on the wall long before today.

If you want to play the new Madden TODAY, it doesn’t matter what is available in November. People wouldn’t buy today at all if what is future available was a major determining factor of any consistent measure. The closer to the release, such as when you could at least actually order the new thing, the greater the impact on the calculus. It’s also why you are more likely to see price cuts to the current gen units in the immediate lead up to the new consoles being released because the juxtaposition of the new units at the leaked price points against the current gen and their current MSRPs represents an obvious value imbalance to consumers. They would have much difficulty clearing out stock on a $300 Xbone S when you can get a $300 Series S.

 

If MS and Sony thought they would profit maximize from price cuts, they would have done so. Shoulda just read D1P to find out that @crispy4000 and @Duderinoare sure they would make more money with a lower price. It’s not a perfect science though, there is no way to find the exact right price of anything, but they certainly have enough data to know where about they would like to see sales figures and the price point they estimate will get them there. This far into the life cycles of these units they most certainly have enough margin in them to further reduce prices if that would lead to a sales increase that justifies taking less per console.

 

Hell, maybe they don’t want to move many more current gen units and instead want demand to stay relatively flat in the hopes they can convince more people to go next gen, especially MS with the Series S and it’s $299 price point? That is well into the realm of speculation though  

[crispy4000]

19 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I really do think it's overpriced, and since I didn't explain myself earlier:

1)  The SSD is too small for even a casual gamer

Games may shrink initially due to not having to duplicate some assets, but games have ALWAYS gotten bigger -- and their is no reason to think that this trend will change.  Once you provision 10% for wear management, and another chunk for system resources -- how much is this going to have available 420GB?  Enough for about 5 AAA games.  So, you're probably in for the base console PLUS a 1TB upgrade card (for whatever MS charges for it -- I'm guessing $100-$150).

2)  The GPU won't deliver a reasonable experience for the entire GEN

A 4TF GPU will probably give ~1080p (probably dropping to 720p on some titles) experience for next gen titles for 2-3 years (unless developers lower graphical settings).  Once the inevitable mid-cycle refresh consoles appear, I think the games designed with those consoles in mind will result in SES games that are a very poor experience.  (As an imperfect analogy, imagine gaming for the last 3 years on a hypothetical ~0.7TF Xbox One or PS4).

 

If I were to give advice to a non-enthusiast gamer, I would tell them not to buy it.  For me, $299 is too much for this experience.  My advice to them would be to wait until 2021 and pickup whatever bundle/discounted holiday package comes out on Black Friday for PS5/SeX.

 

I get this, just with two minor exceptions.

 

1) Next-gen games might be smaller than current on these SSD, due to better compression and less need to duplicate data.  How much, we'll have to see.

2) People paid $400 for vanilla Xbox One that runs a late-gen Avengers port looking like it was smeared in vasoline.  Undoubtedly, something similar will happen to Series S at some point.  Probably sooner this time.  But it is $100 cheaper, so you get what you pay for?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Microsoft better have a good marketing plan to prevent a Wii U. 
 

MS is definitely creating some market confusion and I am not sure if it’s intentional bad or unintentional bad. But it is bad either way! As unimaginative as Sony’s hardware names are, it does make it easy on the masses to keep track of what is what. The Xbox naming scheme is hilariously twisted at this point. I do believe it is part of their continued push away from the traditional generational boundaries. But man, get it together with the names!

[Dodger]

We'll find out in two months if the Series S will sell or not. MS surely has done plenty of market research that the $299 price point is something they can take advantage of with Games pass. The Switch has had massive success at that price point and it's not a powerful console. Instead it relies on Nintendo's famous first partysupport, and it's portable feature is doing well. Games Pass can be a pretty good value and having a next gen entry point at $299, we'll see how it does. 

 

If this thing is a winner you won't have to worry about it having games, because devs and publishers will find a way to get on that gravy train. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I get this, just with two minor exceptions.

 

1) Next-gen games might be smaller than current on these SSD, due to better compression and less need to duplicate data.  How much, we'll have to see.

2) People paid $400 for vanilla Xbox One that runs a late-gen Avengers port looking like it was smeared in vasoline.  Undoubtedly, something similar will happen to Series S at some point.  Probably sooner this time.  But it is $100 cheaper, so you get what you pay for?

1)  Agreed.  I had try to say that in my post, but I may not have been as clear as I should have been

2)  I paid $500 for mine.     What would Avengers look like on an Xbox One that had a GPU 1/3 as powerful as it?

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, Dodger said:

We'll find out in two months if the Series S will sell or not. MS surely has done plenty of market research that the $299 price point is something they can take advantage of with Games pass. The Switch has had massive success at that price point and it's not a powerful console. Instead it relies on Nintendo's famous first support, and it's portable feature is doing well. Games Pass can be a pretty good value and having a next gen entry point at $299, we'll see how it does. 

 

If this thing is a winner you won't have to worry about it having games, because devs and publishers will find a way to get on that gravy train. 

Everything they can get in the market will sell in November/December.  The question is how well it will sell next year (and beyond).

[crispy4000]

14 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

If you want to play the new Madden TODAY, it doesn’t matter what is available in November. People wouldn’t buy today at all if what is future available was a major determining factor of any consistent measure. The closer to the release, such as when you could at least actually order the new thing, the greater the impact on the calculus. It’s also why you are more likely to see price cuts to the current gen units in the immediate lead up to the new consoles being released because the juxtaposition of the new units at the leaked price points against the current gen and their current MSRPs represents an obvious value imbalance to consumers. They would have much difficulty clearing out stock on a $300 Xbone S when you can get a $300 Series S.

 

I don't believe the same metric you're using for Madden applies to hardware.  Hardware is a much bigger purchase than a single video game.  And if someone waited 7 years to pick up an Xbox One or PS4, they're the exception.

Also, where are these MSRP drops?  Is two months not too soon?

 

14 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

If MS and Sony thought they would profit maximize from price cuts, they would have done so. Shoulda just read D1P to find out that @crispy4000 and @Duderinoare sure they would make more money with a lower price. It’s not a perfect science though, there is no way to find the exact right price of anything, but they certainly have enough data to know where about they would like to see sales figures and the price point they estimate will get them there. This far into the life cycles of these units they most certainly have enough margin in them to further reduce prices if that would lead to a sales increase that justifies taking less per console.

 

Hell, maybe they don’t want to move many more current gen units and instead want demand to stay relatively flat in the hopes they can convince more people to go next gen, especially MS with the Series S and it’s $299 price point? That is well into the realm of speculation though  

 

I never said they'd make much more money if they cut prices.  The issue from a value standpoint seems to be that there's no pressure to, because of how the Pro and X1X changed pricing structures.

I think your speculation is correct.  Also, if Microsoft had their way, I think they'd keep $300/500 consistent the entire generation for whatever S/X model scheme they move to mid-cycle.

[Dodger]

What if MS is already planning a mid cycle refresh, and the XSX becomes the $300 model, the new one takes over the $500 price point, and the Series S gets discontinued. That way they can keep the $300/$500 thing going on all gen long easily. 

[crispy4000]

7 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

What would Avengers look like on an Xbox One that had a GPU 1/3 as powerful as it?

A legitimate paired-back port, farmed to an outside studio.

[crispy4000]

1 minute ago, Dodger said:

What if MS is already planning a mid cycle refresh, and the XSX becomes the $300 model, the new one takes over the $500 price point, and the Series S gets discontinued. That way they can keep the $300/$500 thing going on all gen long easily. 

 

Absolutely.  I think we're trending towards that.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I don't believe the same metrics you're using for Madden applies to hardware.  Hardware is a much bigger purchase than a single video game.  And if someone waited 7 years to pick up an Xbox One or PS4, they're the exception.

Also, where are these MSRP drops?  Is two months not too soon?

 

 

I never said they'd make much more money if they cut prices.  The issue from a value standpoint seems to be that there's no pressure to, because of how the Pro and X1X changed pricing structures.

I think your speculation is correct.  Also, if Microsoft had their way, I think they'd keep $300/500 consistent the entire generation for whatever S/X model scheme they move to mid-cycle.

Apologies, I meant Madden today as a reason buy a One S or PS4. Meaning, if you decided there was something you wanted to play today, the existence of something in the future has much less affect on your perception of value. If your demand is relatively soft and you don’t mind waiting, the new thing on the horizon plays a larger role in that internal debate. 
 

OK, so If MS/Sony wouldn’t make more money, why would they cut prices? If the demand is not going to change much at all, they are simply deciding to take less money from the consumer than the consumer is apparently willing to pay.

 

I do agree that in a perfect world for MS, they would just lock in those 299/499 price points and keep flexing newer models into the slots as the years go on instead of the more traditional sliding scale of pricing over time.

[Remarkableriots]

Quote

UK Nintendo Switch hardware sales have more than doubled in the first half of 2020 compared to the first six months of last year”. Furthermore, PlayStation 4 sales have seen an increase of 50%, while Xbox One received a more modest boost of 25% – but an increase in sales nonetheless.

https://www.kitguru.net/gaming/mustafa-mahmoud/switch-sales-more-than-double-in-2020-as-all-consoles-sales-increase/

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

22 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Microsoft better have a good marketing plan to prevent a Wii U. 
 

They can sort that shit out after I get my Series X at launch. 
 

Besides, it’s not like anyone who bought an S or X recently will be unable to game for a couple years, and it won’t take long until you can’t get the old S and maybe even the old X

[Brian]

3 minutes ago, Dodger said:

What if MS is already planning a mid cycle refresh, and the XSX becomes the $300 model, the new one takes over the $500 price point, and the Series S gets discontinued. That way they can keep the $300/$500 thing going on all gen long easily. 

Series X will always be the flagship and Series S will always be the entry. Any new iterations will just have the same name. 

[Remarkableriots]

Quote

Consumers in the United States were still hungry for video game hardware in May, according to industry-tracking firm the NPD Group. And the Nintendo Switch still tops that wish list.

“Hardware spending grew 56% in May 2020 when compared to a year ago, to $235 million,” NPD analyst Mat Piscatella said. “This is the highest total for a May month since the $239 million total achieved in May 2010.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/venturebeat.com/2020/06/12/nintendo-switch-powers-u-s-console-sales-to-235-million-in-may/amp/

[Remarkableriots]

5 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Series X will always be the flagship and Series S will always be the entry. Any new iterations will just have the same name. 

That's going to be very confusing for people.

[Duderino]

3 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

So if they aren’t having issue clearing stock or meeting fiscal goals, both of which end in the creation of new customers, why would they cut the price further?

 

Because they aren’t having issues clearing stock or meeting fiscal goals. They are selling more consoles in 2020 than 2019!

Not sure exactly how many current gen consoles either Sony or Microsoft are expecting to sell before transitioning fully to the SeriesX/PS5, but there is a limited timeframe where either company can realistically expect these systems to sell and retailers to have dedicated PS4/Xbone spaces. Perhaps Covid may have extended it a bit, but the clock is still ticking.
 

The fact of the matter is neither of us have the inside scoop on how many PS4s/Xbone’s are sitting in store shelves, but the Xbox X’s ceased production does speak to where we are at in the generation, even if the consoles prices do not (yet) reflect it.

[crispy4000]

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

OK, so If MS/Sony wouldn’t make more money, why would they cut prices?

 

They'd cut if the other did to get ahead.  Simple as that.  They both realize that by introducing mid-cycle consoles they don't have to race to the bottom.