UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[CitizenVectron]

Great news, she was a good mp, and deserves to be back.

 

 

[chakoo]

I know we still need to see what the results are tomorrow when they count mail in votes but so far this election is ending up as a zero sum event. 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 minutes ago, chakoo said:

I know we still need to see what the results are tomorrow when they count mail in votes but so far this election is ending up as a zero sum event. 

 

 

Costing C$616 million is quite the zero sum event

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

I don't expect that, but a few seats could flip tomorrow based on the mail vote.

 

[chakoo]

6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Costing C$616 million is quite the zero sum event

 

Kind of is, an election was going to happen eventually. The opposition party was frequently calling for a confidence vote.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Someone put out a decent column a few weeks ago to the effect of "Wait...we should have an election every year, if it gets the government to pass good stuff right before calling the next one." It was in response to the Liberals signing all those $10/day childcare agreements before the campaign began. I don't agree with a perpetual campaign, but there is certainly something to be said about trying to curry favour with voters by improving social programs!

You guys are inching closer to America with every passing year

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

10 minutes ago, chakoo said:

 

Kind of is, an election was going to happen eventually. The opposition party was frequently calling for a confidence vote.

 

What were the chances that they would've been able to draw enough support from the NDP or BQ to pull it off?

[chakoo]

18 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

What were the chances that they would've been able to draw enough support from the NDP or BQ to pull it off?

 

If the liberals were polling as bad as the CPC was, it probably would have to drive up BQ & NDP numbers. Yet in reality probably not because NDP was getting some concession out of the liberals even though they kept dragging them along. 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

You guys are inching closer to America with every passing year

Yes, in my backyard: How a stranger's act of kindness has changed a homeless man's life | CBC News

WWW.CBC.CA

---

David McDonald and Kim Cormier met by chance, but their friendship has endured. Now McDonald is awaiting delivery of his new home — a place to call his own after years of rotten luck.

 

[Jwheel86]

MAGA Canada cousin on facebook:

 

[Jason]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

So where we are now... (Change from last election in seats / popular vote)

 

LPC - 1 / (0.9) pts.

CPC - (2) / (0.4) pts.

BQ - 2 / 0.1 pts.

NDP - 1 / 1.8 pts.

PPC - 0 / 3.5 pts.

Green - (1) / (4.2) pts.

 

The overall results didn't change much for LPC/CPC - but perhaps who voted for them did.

 

Strange that Frank Graves at EKOS is taking a victory lap, given that this election was significantly out of the MOE of his final poll results.  (Unless mail in ballots result in a significant change.)  His poll had a popular vote win by LPC of 5.2 points -- they lost by 1.8 points.

 

Liberal MP Maryam "Taliban are our brothers" Monsef lost her seat -- good to know the people in Peterborough haven't completely lost their minds.

 

An analysis by CBC suggests that vote splitting by the PPC may have cost the CPC 24 ridings.

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah, the "Election of Losers" is as good a title of this one as any. No one was a winner, that's for sure. Some things I am taking from this election:

• The Age of Minorities is now cemented. 5 of the last 7 governments have been minorities (and 11 of the last 22). With vote splitting now happening on both the left and right (and with the Bloc eating up half the seats in Quebec), it will be very difficult for either major party to win a majority (though easier for the Liberals than Conservatives).
• If people aren't okay with that, then we need to change our electoral system. However, as much as the current system makes it very difficult for the Conservatives to win, almost all alternatives (pure PR, MMPR, STV/ranked ballot) are even worse for them. Sure the CPC would often come in first...but they would have no natural allies in that sort of Parliament. So if this happens, it will be because of the LPC and NDP acting together (which I don't think will happen).

[CitizenVectron]

Lmao this is great (even as someone who is fine with the result):

 

[chakoo]

Well much of my predictions were off with the exception of seeing the green's collapse to 1/2 seats (but anybody could have seen that) and the PPC costing the CPC some seats. Other than that not really much changes. 

 

It should be noted in reporting the results that 1 seat should be taken from the liberals and labeled as an independant.

Former Liberal candidate Kevin Vuong wins Spadina-Fort York

WWW.CP24.COM

---

CP24 is projecting that Kevin Vuong, the former federal Liberal candidate for Spadina- Fort York, will defeat the NDP’s Norm di Pasquale in a tight race for the downtown riding.

 

8 hours ago, Jason said:

 

Ugg. Fuck those people

 

 

53 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

SAn analysis by CBC suggests that vote splitting by the PPC may have cost the CPC 24 ridings.

 

Told you , there is no way that they weren't going to cost the CPC a few seats.

[AbsolutSurgen]

45 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Yeah, the "Election of Losers" is as good a title of this one as any. No one was a winner, that's for sure. Some things I am taking from this election:

• The Age of Minorities is now cemented. 5 of the last 7 governments have been minorities (and 11 of the last 22). With vote splitting now happening on both the left and right (and with the Bloc eating up half the seats in Quebec), it will be very difficult for either major party to win a majority (though easier for the Liberals than Conservatives).
• If people aren't okay with that, then we need to change our electoral system. However, as much as the current system makes it very difficult for the Conservatives to win, almost all alternatives (pure PR, MMPR, STV/ranked ballot) are even worse for them. Sure the CPC would often come in first...but they would have no natural allies in that sort of Parliament. So if this happens, it will be because of the LPC and NDP acting together (which I don't think will happen).

Provincial CPC governments east of Manitoba have demonstrated that rational (i.e. non-Alberta/Saskatchewan) conservatism has a way to create a government.  FPTP doesn't make it harder for them -- they still need to do what they've always done -- remain a big tent party.

It will be interesting to see how long the PPC remains a thing if they're not winning any seats.

49 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Well much of my predictions were off with the exception of seeing the green's collapse to 1/2 seats (but anybody could have seen that) and the PPC costing the CPC some seats. Other than that not really much changes. 

 

It should be noted in reporting the results that 1 seat should be taken from the liberals and labeled as an independant.

Former Liberal candidate Kevin Vuong wins Spadina-Fort York

WWW.CP24.COM

---

CP24 is projecting that Kevin Vuong, the former federal Liberal candidate for Spadina- Fort York, will defeat the NDP’s Norm di Pasquale in a tight race for the downtown riding.

 

Ugg. Fuck those people

 

 

 

Told you , there is no way that they weren't going to cost the CPC a few seats.

The 5% number came in very low.  It would be interesting to see how many of these folks would otherwise have been non-voters (or previously voted Green).

[CitizenVectron]

45 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

The 5% number came in very low.  It would be interesting to see how many of these folks would otherwise have been non-voters (or previously voted Green).

 

This is why I don't buy into the "PPC cost the CPC 25 seats" argument (where the CPC+PPC vote was higher than the first place party). There are a few reasons:

• While most of the PPC vote seems to have come from the CPC, it's not all (and especially not in all places). In some places, it seems a large chunk came from the collapsed Greens, for instance (who has some supporters whose crazy overlaps with the PPC crazy)
• Many of the PPC voters were likely non-voters who are voting now for the first time, and wouldn't have voted CPC
• It appears that many of the CPC-to-PPC voters came home in the final days as O'Toole hammered the message that he was the only right-wing choice who could defeat Trudeau (even Frank Graves has admitted that his LPC and NDP and BQ numbers were pretty good, but his CPC was low and his PPC was high, implying the PPC support was soft, and reverted back to CPC)

I think the PPC likely did cost the CPC a few seats, but the effect isn't nearly as large as say, the NDP costing the LPC seats (and vice-versa, especially in the west).

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

[CitizenVectron]

I expect 1-2 more ridings will flip to the Liberals (from CPC) as mail ballots are counted, and possible 1 more to CPC (from BQ).

[Jwheel86]

Man, my cousin is super mad at ppc.

[chakoo]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

This is why I don't buy into the "PPC cost the CPC 25 seats" argument (where the CPC+PPC vote was higher than the first place party). There are a few reasons:

• While most of the PPC vote seems to have come from the CPC, it's not all (and especially not in all places). In some places, it seems a large chunk came from the collapsed Greens, for instance (who has some supporters whose crazy overlaps with the PPC crazy)
• Many of the PPC voters were likely non-voters who are voting now for the first time, and wouldn't have voted CPC
• It appears that many of the CPC-to-PPC voters came home in the final days as O'Toole hammered the message that he was the only right-wing choice who could defeat Trudeau (even Frank Graves has admitted that his LPC and NDP and BQ numbers were pretty good, but his CPC was low and his PPC was high, implying the PPC support was soft, and reverted back to CPC)

I think the PPC likely did cost the CPC a few seats, but the effect isn't nearly as large as say, the NDP costing the LPC seats (and vice-versa, especially in the west).

 

 

I don't think the PPC cost the CPC all 25 seats but they definitely cost them about half off that which is still a lot. There are a few poll/breakdowns out there that showed a large portion of PPC voters were CPC supporters if they had to make a second choice. This is unlike the Greens which were pretty much a rainbow of all parties evenly. So they, PPC voters, are not mostly just green voters.

 

-edit-

 

With that said, I don't see PPC voters sticking around for the party. I expect the anti vax crowd to thin out and people will just go back to their usual prefered party.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

13 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

Really, O'Toole's effort to move towards the centre and appeal to central/easterners did work, it just didn't work enough. However, that's not the full story—he improved in central and eastern Canada, but he did so disproportionately in rural areas. This election, even more so than 2019, has shown that the CPC is continuing to lose major urban centres in Canada. Like, what's the largest city now without a Liberal or NDP seat? Saskatoon? That's only 300,000 people. As far as I can tell, every other city in Canada (larger than that) has at least one centre-left/left MP. This is a real concern for the Conservatives, especially since the new census riding map (due out 2022/2023) is going to add even more tilt towards the cities.

 

As much as the CPC base likely wants O'Toole gone...the winning strategy (imo) is to keep him and continue to build on this. People didn't trust him this time (since he ran for leadership as a "true blue," but then pivoted to the centre for the election), but they might trust him more next time. If he can move the Ontario and QC numbers by the same amount in 2023 or 2024, he has a good shot of getting a plurality. Moving to the right is not going to accomplish that.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[dualhunter]

28 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

The candidate in my riding didn't run this time so I couldn't vote Rhino again. The biggest drop is probably from the other Maxime Bernier not running this time.

[CitizenVectron]

One more riding has flipped from NDP to BQ with mail-in ballots being counted.

[CitizenVectron]

As the mail-in ballots are counted, the popular vote difference continues to decrease. It's also possible that the PPC may fall below the 5% vote threshold (used as one of the three measures to determine debate attendance in the next election).

 

Current vote % (with 2019 numbers in brackets):

 

CPC: 33.8% (34.3%)

LPC: 32.3% (33.1%)

NDP: 17.7% (16.0%)

Bloc: 7.8% (7.6%)

PPC: 5.1% (1.6%)

Green: 2.3% (6.6%)

[CitizenVectron]

Here is a graph of the combined % of the major two parties in each election from confederation until now (1867-2000 is Liberal + PC, 2000-now is Liberal + CA/CPC) as well as the times a minority government has been elected:

 

 

The downward trend over time (since the stabilization in the late 19th century of the two parties' tents) shows why minority governments are becoming more common.

[AbsolutSurgen]

22 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

As the mail-in ballots are counted, the popular vote difference continues to decrease. It's also possible that the PPC may fall below the 5% vote threshold (used as one of the three measures to determine debate attendance in the next election).

 

Current vote % (with 2019 numbers in brackets):

 

CPC: 33.8% (34.3%)

LPC: 32.3% (33.1%)

NDP: 17.7% (16.0%)

Bloc: 7.8% (7.6%)

PPC: 5.1% (1.6%)

Green: 2.3% (6.6%)

The criteria for inclusion in a debate are determined after an election is called.  The 5% vote threshold may not necessarily be used as a criterion to be included in the debates during the next election.

[CitizenVectron]

46 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The criteria for inclusion in a debate are determined after an election is called.  The 5% vote threshold may not necessarily be used as a criterion to be included in the debates during the next election.

 

That's true, those are only the current rules! If they end up with 5.1% in the end, hopefully the criteria is set at 5.2% for the next election  .

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

I think it would be a mistake for the CPC to ditch O'Toole now. They need to view this as a two-election strategy, and can't expect a miracle from a rookie leader each time. They made gains this election (in the vote, if not seats) in important areas (namely Ontario and Quebec). If they made the same gains next election, theoretically it would swing a large number of the GTA suburbs. That doesn't guarantee a win, but it's what they need (can't win a majority without some of the GTA and Quebec). Resetting again (and moving to the right) will likely not help them at all.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Quote

Conservatives ought to have seen this election as the first in a two-election strategy. Fundamentally, the urbanites who hold the key to government don’t trust you, Conservatives. They’re worried about the conspiratorial lunatics in your caucus and your base, and they’re worried about who actually holds the reins of power in your party. Their distrust is fair, and will take time to repair. 

If you dump your affable, moderate, centrist leader at the first opportunity because he didn’t crack the 905 on his first try, and you replace him with someone who will chase Maxime Bernier’s vanishing social movement like a labradoodle running after the wheels of a mail truck, you will wind up confirming every extant fear and stereotype this crowd already holds about you and your party. 

It’s a trap. Be smarter than that. 

Meanwhile, I have some good news for you. 

Justin Trudeau isn’t going to get more popular in the long run. Cease fretting over your own numbers for a minute and look at his. The worm began to turn with the SNC-Lavalin scandal back in 2019, and with the exception of some short-term bumps in popularity around the pandemic, the trendline is clear. His big red balloon hasn’t popped, but it’s been leaking air for years.  

The Liberals squandered extraordinary amounts of money, political capital, and general goodwill to secure another minority government that won’t last terribly long. If you’re a smart Tory, you’ll be thinking one thing: “Good.” 

The Liberals are temperamentally incapable of recognizing a de facto loss. They won’t show humility, nor course-correct in any way. 

They won’t control committees in the next parliament, so watch this space for more information about what the hell was going on with the two scientists fired from the National Microbiology Lab with clear connections to China. There is information that the Liberals literally sued the Speaker of the House to prevent becoming public—a suit that was dropped when the writ was drawn up. A majority government would have insulated the Liberals from whatever is there; a minority will not. 

Pandemic supports are slated to come to an end next month, after which it’s the Liberals who will have to deal with the economic fall out, and the consequences of historic government spending. 

And where did all that spending go? After the WE scandal, how confident are you that there isn’t another Liberal-connected charity, business, or lobby group that didn’t get some special consideration? How sanguine are you about the impact of inflation, or housing prices in the coming two years? How sure are you that our allies will start taking Canada seriously as partners on an increasingly volatile world stage? 

In other words, what evidence is there that external events over the next 18 to 24 months will conspire to reverse the trends now closing in on a philosophically spent party led by an increasingly unpopular leader?

Grant the Liberals their minority, grin and bear it. Let the Liberals eat every morsel of cake they have coming to them. 

Time is on the CPC’s side. The Conservatives don’t need a perfect leader. They need a credible one, and that credibility can only be created through patience. O’Toole needs to demonstrate a track record as a leader of a viable, mainstream party. Give him the space to do it. 

 

 

37 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I think it would be a mistake for the CPC to ditch O'Toole now. They need to view this as a two-election strategy, and can't expect a miracle from a rookie leader each time. They made gains this election (in the vote, if not seats) in important areas (namely Ontario and Quebec). If they made the same gains next election, theoretically it would swing a large number of the GTA suburbs. That doesn't guarantee a win, but it's what they need (can't win a majority without some of the GTA and Quebec). Resetting again (and moving to the right) will likely not help them at all.

I still don't particularly like O'Toole -- but he appears to be far more of a centrist-than I thought he was.

The results appear to support him making gains in Ontario and the Maritimes -- bringing over central voters.  I think the anger over vaccines will dissipate over time, and the PPC will slowly lose it's raison d'etre -- and the primary reason for recent gains.

So, it's just a long way of saying, that I think I agree with your analysis.  [Which is a complete surprise to me, because going into the election, I thought that they should get rid of him , so they could bring in a centrist.]

[CitizenVectron]

11 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

 

I still don't particularly like O'Toole -- but he appears to be far more of a centrist-than I thought he was.

The results appear to support him making gains in Ontario and the Maritimes -- bringing over central voters.  I think the anger over vaccines will dissipate over time, and the PPC will slowly lose it's raison d'etre -- and the primary reason for recent gains.

So, it's just a long way of saying, that I think I agree with your analysis.  [Which is a complete surprise to me, because going into the election, I thought that they should get rid of him , so they could bring in a centrist.]

 

Personally I would also prefer even more of a centrist (since I can't be sure O'Toole is as centrist as he claims), but he is certainly less extreme than Scheer, or someone like Poilievre (who would be a likely favourite to win a new leadership race). If they do keep and he continues to beat the drum of dogwhistling to gun activists and anti-abortion groups, then I will retract my claim! 

 

Of course, I say this as advice to the CPC...whom I do not want to see win. Personally, I hope the LPC replaces Trudeau in the next year, and moves to someone like Freeland (or someone else). I've heard Mark Miller's name thrown around as a possible future leadership contender.