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UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021


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|||| CANADA VOTES ||||

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44th General Election

Mon, Sept 20, 2021

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament tomorrow, setting in motion the 44th Parliamentary election. Can the Liberals win their third election in a row? Will Jagmeet Singh's TikToking raise the NDP's fortunes? Will Erin O'Toole drink a 4L jug of milk onstage to outdo his predecessor? Only one thing is for certain: Canada's next Prime Minister will be a Gen X'er, as all five major party leaders belong to that generation for the first time in Canadian history.

 

Leaders and Major Parties:

 

 

 

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|||| Liberal Party of Canada - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

The son of former PM Pierre Trudeau, Trudeau was a high school teacher before entering federal politics as an MP in Quebec in 2008. He has led the party since 2013, and became PM in 2015, winning a majority, and then a subsequent minority government in 2019.

 

 

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|||| Conservative Party of Canada - Erin O'Toole

The son of John O'Toole, a politician in Ontario politics, O'Toole served in the Canadian Air Force, and later entered corporate law before being elected as an MP in 2012. He has led the party since 2020.

 

 

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|||| New Democratic Party of Canada - Jagmeet Singh

The first visible minority party leader in Canada, Singh was a criminal defense lawyer until he entered Ontario politics in 2011, and was elected to Parliament in 2019. He has led the party since 2017. He is known for being active on TikTok, and just announced that he and his wife are expecting a child.

 

 

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|||| Green Party of Canada - Annamie Paul

The first Black and Jewish woman to lead a federal party, Paul was a lawyer and activist before becoming leader of the Greens. She has not yet been elected as an MP, and has led the party since 2020.

 

 

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|||| Bloc Quebecois - Yves-François Blanchet

A teacher and former business owner, Blanchet entered Quebec politics in 2008 and was elected as the party's leader and a federal MP in 2019. His aloof style is partially credited with restoring the Bloc after their near-collapse after the 2011 and 2015 elections.

 

Current Parliamentary standing at dissolution (170 required for majority):

 

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2019 Election Results:

 

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Current Polling and Seat Projections:

 

Support for the major parties has been fairly steady since mid-2020, with the Liberals holding both a popular vote and electoral advantage. It is expected that if the current vote estimates hold, the Liberals will win another minority government, or possibly a narrow majority. But nothing is certain!

 

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Parties:

 

|||| Liberals - "Canada's natural governing party," the Liberals have won 25 of Canada's 43 elections, dominating politics through the 20th century. Generally considered to be a centre-left party, they have also historically had ties to Canadian big business (though this has evened out in recent decades with the Conservatives). Their historical base of support has been in Quebec and southern Ontario, though that has changed in recent decades to include a collection of urban centres across Canada. Generally speaking, the Liberals campaign to the left and govern from the centre/centre-left, often stealing progressive policy ideas from the further-left NDP in order buoy support. Under Trudeau, the party has generally shifted further to the left, embracing many social progressive and pro-environmental issues.

 

|||| Conservatives - Formed from the merger of the Progressive Conservatives and Reform movement (which originated ifrom the PCs as well, in the 1980s), the Conservatives are the only other party besides the Liberals to have won federal elections. As the only major right-wing party in Canada, they have a high floor of support, but also low ceiling (as all other major parties are considered left or centre-left). Traditionally, they win when the Liberals are low and the NDP are high in the polls, causing three-way splits. Historically strong in western Canada as well as suburban Ontario, their base has shifted in recent years to rural and western Canada. While its predecessor (PC Party) was generally more moderate on social and environmental issues, the modern Conservatives tend to have a base that is further to the right thanks to the shift in regional support to the west (and away from major urban centres). The modern party is seen to be populist and socially conservative on many issues, though not nearly so as the American Republican Party.

 

|||| NDP - The successor to the CCF, Canada's first elected socialist government (in provincial elections), the NDP are often described as the "social conscience" of Canada, historically pushing for economic equality (in the form of labour rights, minimum wages, universal healthcare and other programs, etc). In modern times, this has also shifted to include a movement for more racial and gender equality, as well as strong policies on environmental issues. The NDP have never won a federal election, but have come in second place once (in 2011). Generally speaking, they traditionally had a rural, western base (formed from union workers and farmers), but this has shifted in modern times to urban centres as the Conservatives have taken their rural support through populist policies, and as the NDP have embraced social issues in equal measure as economic issues. 

 

|||| Greens - A party founded on environmental principles, they have expanded to generally centre-left progressive policy positions. Its primary base of support is on the coast and islands of BC, though it has seen rising popularity in Atlantic Canada. Recent internal strife over leadership has caused it to lose support, buoying the NDP.

 

|||| Bloc Quebecois - A party centred around the creation of an independent Quebec nation, it has shifted away from separation in modern times to be a general pro-Quebec party, arguing for a stronger place in confederation for the province, and advocating for Quebec-specific issues. Separation is now a secondary objective, as public support has collapsed in recent decades. Generally, the party holds progressive, left-wing policy positions. The party nearly collapsed in 2011 through 2015, but has risen again in recent years as the primary alternative to the Liberal Party in federal elections.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

My cousin on Facebook who thinks Trudeau is a dictator for not calling an election is now mad because Trudeau called an election since it'll cost money.

 

Thanks Troodoh. 

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15 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

 

They are not the same, and Brian Lilley is a POS who doesn't deserve to be quoted. Trudeau's order will allow people with legit exemptions to have alternate options (WFH, regular testing, etc). But it does not include people who simply don't want to be vaccinated to avoid it, as I understand it. O'Toole's position does.

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2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

They are not the same, and Brian Lilley is a POS who doesn't deserve to be quoted. Trudeau's order will allow people with legit exemptions to have alternate options (WFH, regular testing, etc). But it does not include people who simply don't want to be vaccinated to avoid it, as I understand it. O'Toole's position does.

That's not what the letter said:

Quote

For those who refuse vaccination, we will need to consider alternative measures, such as testing and screening.

 

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My (worthless) 2 cent guess on the election:
+ Libs gain seats, end with razor thin majority (by 1/2 seats)
+ NDP gains some seats
- CPC loses the most seats
- Greens wipe themselves out or end with just 1 seat and it's not their leader (yeah no crystal ball needed on that one)

- No PPC seat, they get close but still lose out.

+ <AS> GRrrrr Truedoooohh :p<3

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51 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

LPC definitely dipped 2-3% in the last week. I imagine some pollsters will show LPC ahead by 1-2, others will show CPC ahead by 1-2. Will be interesting to see what happens! I am assuming that Mainstreet is going to show LPC drop and NDP rise, with CPC still only 31-33%.

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What will be really interesting is if we end this election with both the LPC and CPC around the 120-130 mark, NDP around 35, and Bloc around 40. Who governs? If the LPC have the most seats, then for sure Trudeau gets another shot. If the CPC are ahead, but only by 5-10...does Trudeau continue as PM? Legally he can resume Parliament and govern if he wants, unless the opposition brings him down (at which point they could ask the GG to form government without a new election). 

 

However, I don't think this will happen. Voters love momentum, and we're likely to see big shifts in the last week or two if it looks like one side or another has the momentum. The most interesting outcome is if the NDP have momentum. I don't think they can win since they are dead in Quebec...but they could make it so that no one has a clear plurality and mandate to govern, depending on the splits.

 

Canada could sure use some proportional representation.

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WWW.TOOCLOSETOCALL.CA

The Leaders' debates commission changed the rules to be invited to the debate this year compared to 2019. A party can qualify 3 ways. Either...

 

 

It appears that the PPC (Maxime Bernier) likely won't qualify for the debates, which is good news (both for Canadian democracy, and likely Erin O'Toole).

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Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

In context of monetary policy, I get what he was probably trying to say (that politicians aren't responsible for it, the Bank of Canada is), but those weren't the correct words to use, lol.

Every 5-years, the Federal Government and Bank of Canada agree on an inflation target.  That is happening this fall, after the US having just recently adjusted their's with the Fed.  His answer is very strange given this context. 

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14 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

It's because Erin O'Toole is fundamentally a social conservative that tries to pretend he isn't.

 

They really do need to elect a social progressive who is fiscally moderate, and it would truly put them in contention almost every time. I guess their worry is that the social regressive base of the prairies would then split to a new party (just like the 1980/90s).

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2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

They really do need to elect a social progressive who is fiscally moderate, and it would truly put them in contention almost every time. I guess their worry is that the social regressive base of the prairies would then split to a new party (just like the 1980/90s).

I disagree (I know I am more right-of-centre than you are).  IMHO, they need a social centrist -- Canada has historically done a good job of not aligning parties around social conservatism/progressivism, and IMHO that shouldn't change.  [TBH, I don't view Trudeau as being socially progressive - in the context it is used in the US - in his actual policies.  He does, however, pander to them a lot in his answers to questions.]

I think that a Blue Tory could still get elected.  And given the state of our debt, inflation and the economy -- I think that may be what we need.

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For any Americans lurking, this is why Canadian elections are so hard to predict compared to the US:

 

 

It's the one province where there is basically a three-way tie. And because it has gigantic east and south Asian immigrant communities, the results of polls really depend on how much effort the pollster puts into reaching those groups (many of whom still primarily use their mother tongue).

 

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6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

For any Americans lurking, this is why Canadian elections are so hard to predict compared to the US:

 

 

It's the one province where there is basically a three-way tie. And because it has gigantic east and south Asian immigrant communities, the results of polls really depend on how much effort the pollster puts into reaching those groups (many of whom still primarily use their mother tongue).

 

I'm not sure it's just BC.  According to the last census, this is the breakdown of the mother tongue of the residents in my riding:

Mother Tongue
Language Percentage
English 44.8
Chinese 8.6
Urdu 8.3
Arabic 6.5
Polish 2.8
Tagalog 2.5
Spanish 1.9
Punjabi 1.6
Portuguese 1.4
French 1.2
Hindi 1.2
Italian 1.1
Korean 1.0
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21 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I'm not sure it's just BC.  According to the last census, this is the breakdown of the mother tongue of the residents in my riding:

Mother Tongue
Language Percentage
English 44.8
Chinese 8.6
Urdu 8.3
Arabic 6.5
Polish 2.8
Tagalog 2.5
Spanish 1.9
Punjabi 1.6
Portuguese 1.4
French 1.2
Hindi 1.2
Italian 1.1
Korean 1.0

 

For sure! My comment was more that BC is made even more difficult by the language issue, but the real challenge is the three-way race, and how much of the support for NDP and CPC is concentrated in certain regions, making the provincial topline even less important. But there are certainly a lot of places where polling is increasingly difficult. Having said that, pollsters did quite well in 2019 on the topline numbers, and some of the aggregates did a decent job on the riding-level predictions. But like you've said before, the polls are generally better to get a feel for trends and the general support of a party. I have no doubt that both the CPC and LPC are somewhere between 30-35 each, right now, but I wouldn't place a bet on nailing that down to a 1-2% range. lol, really, the only constant has been that the NDP are at 20% in almost all polls, haha.

 

 

Though I do think we're in for another final result where the LPC and CPC are within 1-2% of each other in the national vote, there is a not-insignificant chance that the LPC could pull off a majority with as little as 34% of the national vote, which is insane. Last night I listened to a Twitter Spaces meeting with Quito Maggi and a bunch of other pollsters and journalists, and Quito (who owns Mainstreet) was saying that his tracking shows the LPC and CPC in a statistical tie, but that the LPC are still likely 30-40 seats ahead thanks to their incredibly efficient voter spread in Ontario and Quebec, and the CPC having too much of their national support concentrated in AB/SK. I think he also said that the CPC would need to win by more than 1%, and the LPC be below 31-32% for the CPC to have a chance at a minority. So basically, the real numbers to watch are these three (the most likely things to hurt the LPC):

  • NDP numbers in the GTA (the 10-12 seats the NDP look to pickup are here, and are losses for the LPC, mostly
  • Bloc numbers in QC. Right now they are low, but if they move up even 3-5%, the LPC could lose 5-10 seats
  • CPC numbers in QC. A few polls now have them tied for 2nd in QC (though still far behind the LPC). This could mean the BQ and CPC trading 3-5 seats. However, if the split is efficient, it could also mean the LPC pick up 2-5 extra seats

Our election system is so fucked up. I really, really want there to be a constitutional crisis where we can't get a solid government in place and the parties are somehow forced to agree to proportional rep.

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  • CitizenVectron changed the title to UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

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