UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[AbsolutSurgen]

If I remember my stats right, the EKOS poll is probably +/- 6.3% 19 times out of 20 for the Quebec regional split.

[CitizenVectron]

10 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If I remember my stats right, the EKOS poll is probably +/- 6.3% 19 times out of 20 for the Quebec regional split.

 

True. I believe EKOS has increased their sample size now (as of the last few days) so it's likely a bit smaller, but not below 4-5%, I'd imagine.

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

True. I believe EKOS has increased their sample size now (as of the last few days) so it's likely a bit smaller, but not below 4-5%, I'd imagine.

Sample size today in EKOS was 1,062 - Quebec population ~22% of Canada so Quebec sample is ~240, which gave me MOE of 6.3%.  You have to get above ~380 to get under 5% and ~600 to get to 4%.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

43 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Sample size today in EKOS was 1,062 - Quebec population ~22% of Canada so Quebec sample is ~240, which gave me MOE of 6.3%.  You have to get above ~380 to get under 5% and ~600 to get to 4%.

 

I listened to the Herle Burley podcast this morning on Spotify (The Curse of Politics), and they mentioned that they've increased the samples, and that the three-day roll is now 1,200 (the previous four-day roll was around 1,100, as you say). Not that it massively changes things, as you said.

 

 

21 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

 

 

 

Quito and someone else also had a discussion on twitter that something which may be modifying things is the type of people who answer online polls vs IVR. People who identify with the PPC are less likely to sign up for online polls (since you give out some information). Something that shows this is that even in IVR, the "non-binary/other" category for gender has over 20% support for PPC. Quito pointed out that it's not non-binary people answering this way, it's people refusing to provide their gender (amongst other things). So people less likely to want to give info on themselves are more likely to support PPC, theoretically, meaning they are more likely to answer questions (political, at least) with IVR rather than online. Interesting theory, who knows if it's true. 🤷‍♀️

[AbsolutSurgen]

14 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I listened to the Herle Burley podcast this morning on Spotify (The Curse of Politics), and they mentioned that they've increased the samples, and that the three-day roll is now 1,200 (the previous four-day roll was around 1,100, as you say). Not that it massively changes things, as you said.

 

 

 

Quito and someone else also had a discussion on twitter that something which may be modifying things is the type of people who answer online polls vs IVR. People who identify with the PPC are less likely to sign up for online polls (since you give out some information). Something that shows this is that even in IVR, the "non-binary/other" category for gender has over 20% support for PPC. Quito pointed out that it's not non-binary people answering this way, it's people refusing to provide their gender (amongst other things). So people less likely to want to give info on themselves are more likely to support PPC, theoretically, meaning they are more likely to answer questions (political, at least) with IVR rather than online. Interesting theory, who knows if it's true. 🤷‍♀️

EKOS samples change every day and was close to 1,200 about 4 days ago.  Yesterday it was 1,062.  Their charts have the sample and MOE for the overall sample.

 

We don't know how many of these PPC supporters will even vote (and if they do, does it matter?)  Lots of theories from the pollsters about what's going on.  Not much data yet to back it up.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

I think I'm with Nikos on this one.

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah I do not think the CPC is going to beat the LPC in Ontario, in the end.

 

Also...wut:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

I've only been following the debate on twitter, but apparently it's one of the most boring of all time. The only part that had any significance was when everyone else piled on O'Toole for his stance on childcare funding.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Trying to help the CPC win...I wonder what promises he wants. I wonder how much it will help. He is a very popular premier. I expect we'll see the BQ vote continue to drop and CPC rise in Quebec. I can't see the CPC beating LPC in Quebec, but they will definitely pick up some seats.

[CitizenVectron]

I don't watch debates anymore, but from the sounds of twitter, tonight's has also been pretty boring, with the most notable thing being that the moderator isn't very good. And that Blanchet is whiny, and all other leaders are avoiding most questions.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

A Liberal minority looks like the most likely scenario, but anything can happen.

EKOS and Mainstreet are still the only ones showing the large growth in PPC.

The pollsters are getting frisky on Twitter -- it's clear that some of them don't really like each other.

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

A Liberal minority looks like the most likely scenario, but anything can happen.

EKOS and Mainstreet are still the only ones showing the large growth in PPC.

The pollsters are getting frisky on Twitter -- it's clear that some of them don't really like each other.

 

Yeah, it was pretty heated last night. The catalyst was that the President of Angus Reid (a notoriously pro-CPC pollster) was the moderator, and did a very poor job at it. Then sparks started to fly. No pollsters should be the moderator in the first place! And the broadcast consortium should be banned from holding debates for 20 years, they are so bad at it. Have 5-6 debates, each one regional, with one foreign policy (if needed). That way you can focus on specific issues. And for god's sake, only let the main three leaders be there for the entire thing! Have the fringe parties come on for the final 15 minutes or something.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Yeah, it was pretty heated last night. The catalyst was that the President of Angus Reid (a notoriously pro-CPC pollster) was the moderator, and did a very poor job at it. Then sparks started to fly. No pollsters should be the moderator in the first place! And the broadcast consortium should be banned from holding debates for 20 years, they are so bad at it. Have 5-6 debates, each one regional, with one foreign policy (if needed). That way you can focus on specific issues. And for god's sake, only let the main three leaders be there for the entire thing! Have the fringe parties come on for the final 15 minutes or something.

I didn't watch the debate either, but heard it was universally useless.  IMHO, debates in modern politics are a waste of time, given how politicians are prepared for them.

FWIW -- Angus Reid undercalled the CPC vote in both 2015/2019 elections.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

I think the biggest flaw with the format was only allowing 30 seconds for any exchange. Really dumb.

 

 

[chakoo]

I find it silly that they are so many french language debates and just only 1 english debate. There should be 2 of each, 1 set early and 1 set later in the election. Other than the first french debate being somewhat alright the only thing so far that has been somewhat redeemable is the Q&As after the debate.

 

Anyways I concur with @AbsolutSurgen, We're probably ending up with a LPC minority. With NDP & CPC picking up a few seats at the expense of the BQ, and Greens will drop down to 1-2 seats.

[CitizenVectron]

In a move that should surprise no one, O'Toole has pivoted to openly pandering to racists in Quebec to win seats:

 

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

29 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

In a move that should surprise no one, O'Toole has pivoted to openly pandering to racists in Quebec to win seats:

 

 

 

 

Isn't he just adopting Trudeau's position?

[CitizenVectron]

58 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Isn't he just adopting Trudeau's position?

 

Trudeau's position is "I don't like the laws, but there's not much I can or will do" (when he is pushed on it). O'Toole's appears to be "I support Quebec's right/decision to make these particular laws, and I am putting out videos publicly to say as much."

 

One is resignation, the other is basically a dogwhistle.

[AbsolutSurgen]

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Trudeau's position is "I don't like the laws, but there's not much I can or will do" (when he is pushed on it). O'Toole's appears to be "I support Quebec's right/decision to make these particular laws, and I am putting out videos publicly to say as much."

 

One is resignation, the other is basically a dogwhistle.

O'Toole  said:

Quote

Quebeckers are not racists, and I reject the premise of the question asked during the debate last night. I take this opportunity to reiterate the commitment in my contract not to challenge the laws passed by the National Assembly or any other province.

This morning Trudeau said:

Quote

My position on this is known, not in favour of that particular law. But it is wrong to suggest that Quebecers are racist.  As a Quebecer, I found that question really offensive. I think, yes, there is lots of work to do to continue to fight systemic racism across the country and in every part of this country. But I don't think that question was acceptable or appropriate ... I had a hard time processing [it] even last night.

They basically said the same thing.

[dualhunter]

Yeah, but one won't do the right thing so as not to lose votes and the other will do the wrong thing to gain votes so it's completely different 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Leaders' debates commission under fire after controversial English debate

WWW.CTVNEWS.CA

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After Thursday's controversial English-language debate, some critics are calling for an end to the Leaders' Debates Commission or at least an overhaul of its mandate.

 

 

No doink

[AbsolutSurgen]

Trudeau and O'Toole offer differing views on flags and reconciliation

WWW.CTVNEWS.CA

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A re-elected Liberal government would leave flags on federal buildings at half-mast until prompted by Indigenous communities, party leader Justin Trudeau said at a campaign stop on Friday, while Conservative leader Erin O'Toole doubled down on his pledge to raise the flags, saying he would do so as a sign of commitment to reconciliation.

Quote

“I plan to keep those flags at half-mast until it is clear that Indigenous peoples are happy to raise them again,” Trudeau told reporters at a campaign stop in Hamilton, Ont. on Friday.

 

That is not the intention of half-masting the flag.  The continual virtue-signaling by Trudeau, followed up not actually doing to work through the problem is really tiring.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Quote

 I know the Prime Minister had always considered me a bit of a challenge – not political enough, too independent-minded, and ultimately not part of the inner Liberal crowd. I think I was foreign and incomprehensible to him. After all, I was from the other side of the tracks. I was an Indigenous girl from a small fishing village – Cape Mudge, on the southern tip of Quadra Island just off Vancouver Island. I am Kwakwaka’wakw. The PM did not grow up in my neighbourhoods, with the kids I grew up with. None of his family went to residential schools. My childhood memories are closer to Comox and Cape Mudge than Rockcliffe. My political point of reference was the Big House, not the House of Commons. To be fair, he did not choose how and where he grew up or who his parents were. But Liberals? Political parties? Not my world.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

53 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Trudeau and O'Toole offer differing views on flags and reconciliation

WWW.CTVNEWS.CA

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A re-elected Liberal government would leave flags on federal buildings at half-mast until prompted by Indigenous communities, party leader Justin Trudeau said at a campaign stop on Friday, while Conservative leader Erin O'Toole doubled down on his pledge to raise the...

 

That is not the intention of half-masting the flag.  The continual virtue-signaling by Trudeau, followed up not actually doing to work through the problem is really tiring.

 

This is almost american levels of culture war stuff

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

So what are the odds the PPC gets a seat?

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

So what are the odds the PPC gets a seat?

It’s possible, but unlikely. Maxime Bernier has a shot in his old seat. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Some polls show a Liberal majority may still be a possibility. Others…

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

I don't think the Liberals will get that many seats, I think they'll lose some ground in Quebec.

 

PPC still a wildcard in some areas:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

Announced on the day when there are large protests blocking access to multiple hospitals across the country.