UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Elections Canada workers threatened in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding | CBC News

WWW.CBC.CA

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Police were recently called to two Elections Canada locations in the riding of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour to deal with disgruntled voters who had been threatening and verbally abusing Elections Canada workers.

 

Some Conservative voters threatened Elections Canada staff at a polling station after they discovered their preferred candidate wasn't on the ballot...two weeks after he'd dropped out of the race following sexual misconduct allegations. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

This is the craziest election in our lifetimes, in terms of how the vote could split, etc (except maybe when Reform and Bloc first came on the scene). Like, a 1% drop for LPC could hand the CPC 20-30 seats...but a rise for the PPC of 1% could hand 5-10 from the CPC to the LPC. Then there's the Bloc, the NDP in BC, etc. It's so close.

 

 

Someone also pointed out that this could be the first election ever where the two major parties both each get below 1/3 of the vote. We're trying to have a PR system crammed into a FPTP system, and it's not working very well.

[CitizenVectron]

The VAST majority of Canadians of all political stripes are largely apathetic to partisan politics, preferring one party to another but not being zealots. But there are some real crazies out there right now that have been sucked in by the right-wing hate machine exported from the US:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Welp, looks like the PPC is trying to take a play from the GOP's book, and is pre-emptively calling foul on the election. They are trying to recruit observers to watch for the spoiling of pro-PPC ballots:

 

Bernier cherche des « patriotes » pour agir comme scrutateurs

WWW.LAPRESSE.CA

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Le chef du Parti populaire du Canada (PPC), Maxime Bernier, invite les « patriotes » qui militent pour son parti à « se mobiliser et agir en tant que scrutateurs pour défendre notre démocratie ».

 

A bunch of fucking losers. First off, elections in Canada are widely considered to be some of the most secure and fair in the world. It's just a single sheet of paper with a single X, and it's monitored by all parties through the process.

 

I wonder if the PPC ballot scrutineers are going to deny certification to polling boxes, and what the Elections Canada (and other party) response will be. When I scrutineered in 2015, the riding was HOTLY contested between CPC and NDP (with the NDP candidate winning by less than 200 votes—Erin Weir). Yet, at my polling box counting station, the party reps (CPC, LPC, Green, and myself for NDP) were all very cordial. Some boxes were more for the CPC, some more for the NDP. But we all counted things fairly, agreed, etc. Only once did we recount a box, and that was because one of the volunteers forgot to tick a single vote off on their list (while the other 5 people—including the two EC workers—did).

[AbsolutSurgen]

I don't think polls will tell the wholes story.  Strategic voting may materially impact the result.  Voters for the NDP/PPC/GP may switch their vote, to vote against the LPC/CPC.  This is a dynamic you normally don't see in the US -- and I don't think the polls really capture this.

[chakoo]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

Welp, looks like the PPC is trying to take a play from the GOP's book, and is pre-emptively calling foul on the election. They are trying to recruit observers to watch for the spoiling of pro-PPC ballots:

 

Bernier cherche des « patriotes » pour agir comme scrutateurs

WWW.LAPRESSE.CA

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Le chef du Parti populaire du Canada (PPC), Maxime Bernier, invite les « patriotes » qui militent pour son parti à « se mobiliser et agir en tant que scrutateurs pour défendre notre démocratie ».

 

A bunch of fucking losers. First off, elections in Canada are widely considered to be some of the most secure and fair in the world. It's just a single sheet of paper with a single X, and it's monitored by all parties through the process.

 

I wonder if the PPC ballot scrutineers are going to deny certification to polling boxes, and what the Elections Canada (and other party) response will be. When I scrutineered in 2015, the riding was HOTLY contested between CPC and NDP (with the NDP candidate winning by less than 200 votes—Erin Weir). Yet, at my polling box counting station, the party reps (CPC, LPC, Green, and myself for NDP) were all very cordial. Some boxes were more for the CPC, some more for the NDP. But we all counted things fairly, agreed, etc. Only once did we recount a box, and that was because one of the volunteers forgot to tick a single vote off on their list (while the other 5 people—including the two EC workers—did).

 

I hope his people get jailed for interfering because you know they won't care on being nice/accurate. The government should come down hard on his ilk to show that this shit will not fly in canada. 

[CitizenVectron]

7 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I don't think polls will tell the wholes story.  Strategic voting may materially impact the result.  Voters for the NDP/PPC/GP may switch their vote, to vote against the LPC/CPC.  This is a dynamic you normally don't see in the US -- and I don't think the polls really capture this.

 

I think (in the end) the final polls from the upcoming weekend will be quite close nationally (within 2-2.5%), but you're right that strategic voting comes into play. A large % of the NDP's and BQ's voters say they will likely change their vote. But to who? NDP will mostly swing LPC (with some to CPC or BQ), but the BQ is more of an even split with CPC and LPC.

 

In my case, I vote NDP since my riding is CPC vs NDP...but a few blocks away, it's LPC vs CPC, so I'd vote LPC there.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Ben Woodfinden: Trudeau's hollow progressivism behind refusal to raise federal flags

WWW.MSN.COM

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Even though Parliament’s flag and other federal flags have been at half-mast since May, Justin Trudeau only outlined during the English leaders debate when it they would go back up. The process itself, involving consultation with as yet unnamed Indigenous leaders is vague, and what should be a serious decision by serious leaders has been politicized by the prime minister. The flags need to go back up. Federal flags were...

Quote

Trudeau has said that he “would not raise them again until we have worked enough with Indigenous communities and leadership to make a clear determination that it was time to raise them again and continue the hard work of reconciliation.” But what exactly does this mean? What criteria will be used to judge when Canada is fit to fly its flag at full-mast again? This is classic example of the hollow progressivism that is the hallmark of Justin Trudeau. He will commit to gestures that make him seem progressive, but often doesn’t follow up with action. “You can’t take a knee one day, if you’re going to take Indigenous kids to court the next,” Jagmeet Singh said in last week’s debate. Trudeau at times sounds like he is a man in opposition, not the man who has been prime minister for the last six years. Trudeau could have implemented the 94 calls to action offered by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. But in reality he prefers hollow gestures.

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

So we could go from this to basically a tie (electorally) depending on how the vote concentration lands in different regions. We really need to abolish FPTP.

 

EDIT - Also, if this was the result, I don't think the Liberals would be working with anyone, I think they'd try to get an NDPer or Green to cross the floor to give them a majority.

[AbsolutSurgen]

7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

So we could go from this to basically a tie (electorally) depending on how the vote concentration lands in different regions. We really need to abolish FPTP.

 

EDIT - Also, if this was the result, I don't think the Liberals would be working with anyone, I think they'd try to get an NDPer or Green to cross the floor to give them a majority.

There is no way the CPC or the LPC will ever support getting rid of FPTP.  They may SAY they will support it, but FPTP is in their best interests.

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, AbsolutSurgen said:

There is no way the CPC or the LPC will ever support getting rid of FPTP.  They may SAY they will support it, but FPTP is in their best interests.

 

Oh for sure, and I'm not going to hold my breath. It would simply be better for Canada as a whole to have our votes reflected in Parliament. 

[chakoo]

Unless we get into ranked ballots PR isn't going to lead to where people think it will. I'm game for election reform but just picking something to replace FPTP for the sake of it is not the right call.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Oh for sure, and I'm not going to hold my breath. It would simply be better for Canada as a whole to have our votes reflected in Parliament. 

Moving to something like Italy or Israel has does not look attractive to me.

[CitizenVectron]

15 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Moving to something like Italy or Israel has does not look attractive to me.

 

There are certainly good implementations of PR, and bad. Ideally you want something like Germany where you have a few large parties, along with affiliated blocks of smaller parties to make alliances natural.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Things have tightened up since yesterday:

 

 

 

Going from the daily trackers, the CPC vote has increased, while the LPC vote has dropped (but still increased in the right places for them) meaning nothing has really changed electorally. However...it's all in the margin of error! Really, since probably Sept 2 or 3...everything has been in the MOE nationally. LPC and CPC are both around 31-32%, and we don't know enough regionally except to say that the BQ has risen in Quebec, and the Liberals have probably risen a bit in ON and BC (and PPC a bit).

 

I'm volunteering on Monday to GOTV for my local NDP candidate, hoping to defeat Warren Steinley. All the CPC MPs in Regina are shit. Andrew Scheer, Warren Steinley, and Michael "Michael Kram" Kram. There's an outside chance that either Steinley or Kram could be defeated by the NDP and LPC candidates, respectively, but I'm not holding my breath. The NDP candidate in my riding is Tria Donaldson, who is Indigenous and LGBTQ2S+, a stark contrast from the anti-abortion Steinley.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[Jason]

On 9/12/2021 at 9:50 AM, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

I don't think the Liberals will get that many seats, I think they'll lose some ground in Quebec.

 

PPC still a wildcard in some areas:

 

 

 

What's the "other" that's losing a seat?

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

What's the "other" that's losing a seat?

 

An MP sitting as an independent. Usually every Parliament there's one or two MPs that either get booted out of their party (or leave), but they continue to sit as an independent. It's very hard to be re-elected without running under one of the major parties' banners.

[AbsolutSurgen]

24 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

What's the "other" that's losing a seat?

Jody Wilson-Raybould ran as an independent in the 2019 election in Vancouver-Granville and won the seat -- beating the candidate the Liberals brought forward to run against her.

21 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

An MP sitting as an independent. Usually every Parliament there's one or two MPs that either get booted out of their party (or leave), but they continue to sit as an independent. It's very hard to be re-elected without running under one of the major parties' banners.

They show the results vs. the election, rather than where they are now.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

A Liberal majority would be a disaster.  Good to see the NDP picking up support.

[CitizenVectron]

We're in a strange situation where most people in the country want a minority government. Unfortunately, that's not something you can directly vote for, so it's very messy.

[AbsolutSurgen]

15 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

We're in a strange situation where most people in the country want a minority government. Unfortunately, that's not something you can directly vote for, so it's very messy.

I'm fine with an NDP or CPC majority.  Neither is going to happen.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Minority governments shouldn't exist.

 

Either find enough coalition partners to form a majority government or have another election!

[CitizenVectron]

12 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Minority governments shouldn't exist.

 

Either find enough coalition partners to form a majority government or have another election!

 

What should happen is that there should be a written agreement put in place for a certain duration. For example, the NDP could agree to support the government for 4 years (avoiding an election) as long as the LPC or CPC do X things in that time.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

What should happen is that there should be a written agreement put in place for a certain duration. For example, the NDP could agree to support the government for 4 years (avoiding an election) as long as the LPC or CPC do X things in that time.

MPs can vote however they choose on any bill.  That agreement would violate Canada's entire parliamentary system.

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 NDP candidates resign following 'unacceptable' online comments | CBC News

WWW.CBC.CA

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The NDP says two of its candidates have quit the federal election race with less than a week to go, promising to learn more about antisemitism.

 

Coles had reported claimed that vaccine supply was being negatively reduced because of Israel.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Looks like a dead heat in popular vote -- which means a Liberal minority.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Best Canadian Prime Minister during my lifetime is back on the campaign trail!

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

A lot of left-wing voters have been voting against their conscience, and voting for the centrist Liberals to keep the Conservatives out.

Will this be the election that the right-wing voters vote against their conscience, and vote Conservative to keep the Liberals out?

[It's fascinating to see the different perspectives of the pollsters ATM.  BTW, I don't follow this dude, it appeared in my queue because Quito retweeted it.]

[CitizenVectron]

3 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

A lot of left-wing voters have been voting against their conscience, and voting for the centrist Liberals to keep the Conservatives out.

Will this be the election that the right-wing voters vote against their conscience, and vote Conservative to keep the Liberals out?

[It's fascinating to see the different perspectives of the pollsters ATM.  BTW, I don't follow this dude, it appeared in my queue because Quito retweeted it.]

 

He's a nut job that was partly responsible for Rob Ford (and then Doug Ford). He also ran Kellie Leitch's campaign for CPC leader before resigning in disgrace. Check out his Controversies section on wikipedia: 

 

Nick Kouvalis - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

Quote

Kouvalis resigned as manager of Kellie Leitch's Conservative leadership campaign in February 2017 after he became the focus of media coverage for a series of posts on Twitter calling Emmett Macfarlane, a University of Waterloo political science professor, a "cuck" and a "traitor" after Macfarlane criticized Leitch's proposed policies and compared her to Donald Trump.[17]

 

However, his main thrust is correct (that PPC is taking away support from CPC). I would not be surprised to see the PPC get 15%+ in AB (maybe even 20%+ now), and the same in Saskatchewan. I don't think they'll exceed 6% anywhere else. However, that might be enough to make the difference in 1-2 seats in AB/SK, and maybe a few more in Ontario or BC. 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Seems to have been a bump for the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec the last two days, judging from the tracking polls (and what pollsters are saying). This sets the Liberals up well in terms of being able to withstand being roughly tied in the national vote. 

 

 

 

I wouldn't put stock in the 34-30 national number, though, especially with the PPC being only at 5%. I'm expecting more like 33 CPC, 32 LPC in the end (with PPC nationally around 6%)