Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, skillzdadirecta said: Warren supporters who see the writing on the wall for her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jose said: Why? Because people were lead to believe the polls were way off, mostly so the media could save face for being sure Trump would lose despite the odds being decent he could win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: Warren supporters who see the writing on the wall for her. I knew that's what you meant, by how in GOD'S name do you go from Warren to Bloomberg? That literally makes no sense. I would think they would go to Bernie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Bernie's people will most likely be blaming Warren for this, but Sanders support with black voters is still. He had years to work on that, but it seems like he wasn't able to do it. Also, how much of his 2016 vote share was simply anti-Clinton, rather than pro-Bernie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: I knew that's what you meant, by how in GOD'S name do you go from Warren to Bloomberg? That literally makes no sense. For most voters, there really is very little ideological consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Because people were lead to believe the polls were way off, mostly so the media could save face for being sure Trump would lose despite the odds being decent he could win. Well looks like it worked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I'm not gonna get into a debate here, but a lot of major polls WERE wrong. There's been a bunch of theories as to why, the most prevailing theory being that truly undecided voters broke for Trump at the last minute. That may or may not be true, but it still doesn't change the fact that polls, for whatever reason, showed they aren't always reliable. If folks want to still pay attention to them cool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: For most voters, there really is very little ideological consistency. I mean, look at this: Quote "Did you know that Democratic voters want a unicorn for president? For example, according to preliminary exit polls of North Carolina, 56 percent of voters said they want the next president to return to Obama’s policies, while only 27 percent said they want more liberal policies. But in the same poll, 55 percent said they want to replace all private health insurance with a government-run program, and 69 percent want to make tuition free at public colleges and universities." That speaks volumes right there about how voters perceive ideology. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The polls were fine in 2016 and they're largely fine today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: For most voters, there really is very little ideological consistency. I know that... I just don't see what Bloomberg's appeal would be to someone who had Warren as their preferred candidate. I had dinner with a buddy of mine last night who is a BIG Warren supporter and he had nothing but disdain for Bloomberg. He also lived in Bloomberg's New York for so that may have something to do with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Boston is barely in. Also apparently the only county reporting results in Maine is on the first eastern tip of the state. I imagine that might have something to do with the current standings in the states neighboring VT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 Polls had Hillary winning the popular vote by around 3% and she won by around 2%. They were pretty damn good. There are always some state anomalies; 2016 just happened to be one where some important states fell into that. But others, like Virginia, were just about right on. And that was despite the fact that there were a considerable number of undecideds. There weren't in 2012, and the polls nailed each states. 1 hour ago, Comet said: The thread stated Virginia only Gonna ban Riley from posting tweets soon. 22 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: Does Warren get blamed for if Bernie underperforms tonight? Also how are Colorado and Minnesota looking? I expect those to be big Bernie states. Doesn't look like she's doing well enough to be a spoiler. Though I can't stress enough that many Warren voters like the moderates, and many moderate voters in caucus states had Bernie as their second choice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 85% of the county Burlington, VT is in is also outstanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 For some reason NYT doesn't seem to be letting you drill down to the county level, BuzzFeed has the county-level maps though: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeednews/live-results-super-tuesday-democratic-primaries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Colorado called for Sanders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/12/it_wasnt_the_polls_that_missed_it_was_the_pundits_132333.html For anybody who doesn’t mind learning something in opposition to their stated beliefs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Any numbers out there on Cisneros/Cuellar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, thewhyteboar said: Any numbers out there on Cisneros/Cuellar? I don't, but I'm also curious how the Senate race goes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentWorld Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Polls had Hillary winning the popular vote by around 3% and she won by around 2%. They were pretty damn good. There are always some state anomalies; 2016 just happened to be one where some important states fell into that. But others, like Virginia, were just about right on. And that was despite the fact that there were a considerable number of undecideds. There weren't in 2012, and the polls nailed each states. For a significant amount of people (and I include myself in this group) the idea of Trump winning was absurd. I remember, prior to the election, somebody getting in a Twitter argument with Silver saying that Clinton had a 99.9% chance of winning. It wasn't the polls that made people think Trump only had a 0.1% chance of winning. The polls said he probably wouldn't win and people combined that with their absolute revulsion with Trump to conclude there was no way he could win. Then in hindsight, no one wanted to label themselves as being wrong so they'd rather say "well the polls misled me." It's impossible to prove but I bet that polls wouldn't have gotten nearly as bad a rap if Romney had won in 2012 as they did when Trump won, even though as I recall in 2012 the polls were predicting an Obama win with far greater certainty. People would've seen Romney win and shrugged saying "well pollsters said he had a 10% chance of winning" (or whatever the odds were) because a Romney victory wouldn't have been as much of a mind breaking thing as a Trump victory was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Nothing is a forgone conclusion. Vote for the person you want to see become President. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, sblfilms said: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/12/it_wasnt_the_polls_that_missed_it_was_the_pundits_132333.html For anybody who doesn’t mind learning something in opposition to their stated beliefs... That's one way to look at it... here are several others. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html There's more and I could keep posting them. I know that there's a view out there that the polls were NOT wrong, it was the media coverage and confirmation bias. There's an opposing view that the polls DID get it wrong in 2016. There's also a view that polls got Brexit wrong in 2015 as well. Again, I don't want to debate this and i don't want to derail the thread. If folks want to further rely on polls cool. Something was off and maybe it was an anomaly in that cycle, maybe it wasn't. i don't know. I just made a statement that I don't pay much attention to polls anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Brick said: Nothing is a forgone conclusion. Vote for the person you want to see become President. In my case, that's literally unconstitutional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Sander's lead in Texas is growing and he's winning Colorado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: Sander's lead in Texas is growing and he's winning Colorado. I'm guessing he is over-performing with Latinos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 One thing is for sure: Democrats are hyped: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: One thing is for sure: Democrats are hyped: I heard turnout in California was up too. Someone mentioned it when I was on line to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, SFLUFAN said: Biden cements this if Bloomberg drops out. Will the Bernie Bots accept the fate of their dear leader though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 CNN just called Colorado for Bernie and Tennessee for Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: Biden cements this if Bloomberg drops out. Will the Bernie Bots accept the fate of their dear leader though? Better than a brokered convention ratfuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 NPR calls Minnesota for Biden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 33 minutes ago, thewhyteboar said: Any numbers out there on Cisneros/Cuellar? Looking promising! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.