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China Indefinitely Delays the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics


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  • Jason changed the title to China Indefinitely Delays the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics

The gathering of the National Congress is more than an electoral event or a ‘session of Congress’ as we think of it—it’s kind of like a huge royal ceremony spliced with policy discussions and political maneuvering.

 

My best guess as to what’s probably going on is the following: Because of the symbolic importance of the ceremony, if the GDP stats don’t look good, the imperial administrators are not going to spoil it by releasing them while it’s going on.  Doing so would cause both the emperor (Xi) and the whole imperial senate (the party) to ‘lose face’ in front of the whole world, and in front of the Chinese citizenry, which could easily lead to political panic and instability.  Plus in Chinese culture there’s literally nothing worse than losing face.  Like, wars have been started over it.  
 

IMO, Like outsida alluded to, they’ll release the sketchily ‘revised’ stats after the ceremony’s done.

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47 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

The gathering of the National Congress is more than an electoral event or a ‘session of Congress’ as we think of it—it’s kind of like a huge royal ceremony spliced with policy discussions and political maneuvering.

 

My best guess as to what’s probably going on is the following: Because of the symbolic importance of the ceremony, if the GDP stats don’t look good, the imperial administrators are not going to spoil it by releasing them while it’s going on.  Doing so would cause both the emperor (Xi) and the whole imperial senate (the party) to ‘lose face’ in front of the whole world, and in front of the Chinese citizenry, which could easily lead to political panic and instability.  Plus in Chinese culture there’s literally nothing worse than losing face.  Like, wars have been started over it.  
 

IMO, Like outsida alluded to, they’ll release the sketchily ‘revised’ stats after the ceremony’s done.

 

The timing of the postponement is unquestionably related to the National Congress of the CCP (and its "decision" to bequeath to Xi a third five-year term as General Secretary), but it also speaks volumes of the PRC's sense of confidence (arrogance?) that it knows full well that the external financial world will view the postponement and subsequently-released data with some degree of skepticism and their response is effectively, "Yeah, maybe we're cooking the data, but so what?  What are you gonna do about it?"

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3 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

With companies like Apple hedging against China by starting to assemble tech products in Thailand and India, I can't imagine it's going to be long before other companies do the same. I'd imagine this is going to "get worse" sooner rather than later.

 

Wait capital has no loyalty?

 

But guys this is clearly just a galaxy brain strat. You can't have bad economic news if there isn't any economics new. IB4 China is the first 10 trillion dollar economy because they say so.

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On 10/18/2022 at 1:43 PM, Kal-El814 said:

With companies like Apple hedging against China by starting to assemble tech products in Thailand and India, I can't imagine it's going to be long before other companies do the same. I'd imagine this is going to "get worse" sooner rather than later.

China is already heavily invested is SEA development. Trickle up is back on the menu.

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