DHL doing major layoffs

[thedarkstark]

I work at a midwest facility, they're laying off 100ish employees or roughly 1/4th of the drivers/dock workers and other major cities will be doing the same.

 

Shit is about to hit the fan boys, save your money 2008 revenge tour is upon us.

[thedarkstark]

A little bit more context for those unfamiliar DHL is the largest logistics company in the world. Both Fedex and DHL are forecasting significant decrease in volume going into "peak" holiday season. We're headed for a major recession, maybe even depression 2.0 the "everything bubble" is about to burst. Extreme inflation across all sectors including basic human necessities (shelter, food, energy) combined with 40+ years of stagnant wage growth means we're all fucked.

 

We need sweeping economic policy change that significantly hampers the price gouging on energy and housing. If people are spending 50% (or more) of their income on basic necessities the economy will never be stable. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

@thedarkstark - I figured that when FedEx put out its earnings warning a couple of weeks ago that it was only a matter of time before other logistics companies followed suit.

[CitizenVectron]

3 hours ago, thedarkstark said:

A little bit more context for those unfamiliar DHL is the largest logistics company in the world. Both Fedex and DHL are forecasting significant decrease in volume going into "peak" holiday season. We're headed for a major recession, maybe even depression 2.0 the "everything bubble" is about to burst. Extreme inflation across all sectors including basic human necessities (shelter, food, energy) combined with 40+ years of stagnant wage growth means we're all fucked.

 

We need sweeping economic policy change that significantly hampers the price gouging on energy and housing. If people are spending 50% (or more) of their income on basic necessities the economy will never be stable. 

 

We need a new deal but what we're going to get is fascism.

[CayceG]

Where should I be parking money to remain stable here through whatever is about to come? Should I just have a big 'ol savings account?

[Chris-]

4 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Where should I be parking money to remain stable here through whatever is about to come? Should I just have a big 'ol savings account?

Depends on how risk adverse you are but assuming you have 6+ months of cash on hand I would just buy as much index on cheap as you can. 

[CayceG]

49 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Depends on how risk adverse you are but assuming you have 6+ months of cash on hand I would just buy as much index on cheap as you can. 

 

 

My VTI holdings are looking grim. Part of me has been waiting for the bottom so I don't continue to lose out in a downturn  

[Chris-]

2 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

 

My VTI holdings are looking grim. Part of me has been waiting for the bottom so I don't continue to lose out in a downturn  

Unless you would need the money in the next 3-4 years, don’t worry about it; don’t pass up buying cheap to theoretically buy cheaper, because it’s likely you won’t time it right (because that is nearly impossible). 

[CayceG]

9 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Unless you would need the money in the next 3-4 years, don’t worry about it; don’t pass up buying cheap to theoretically buy cheaper, because it’s likely you won’t time it right (because that is nearly impossible). 

 

PelosiPortfolio Indexed Fund WHEN

[CitizenVectron]

58 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Where should I be parking money to remain stable here through whatever is about to come? Should I just have a big 'ol savings account?

 

If the market is going to bottom out in 1 month, then moving to less-risky investments is a bad idea. If it bottoms out in 6 months, it's maybe a better idea. If it bottoms out in 1+ year, then it's a good idea (assuming in all these cases you then switch back to high-risk when the market begins to rebound).

 

The problem with the above thinking is:

1. You don't know how long it's going to keep dropping
2. You don't know when a rebound is really a rebound, or just a dead cat bounce

There's no real way to time the market in a logical way. Yes, some people do time it, but they are lucky, and their advice should be ignored. Time in market > timing market over the long-term.

[TheLeon]

You could always do what I do: just don’t have enough money to invest in the first place! It’s nice and easy, never have to think about it. 

[stepee]

So does this make it easier or harder for me secure a 4090 order?

[Link200]

How much of this is a cargo correction considering cargo has been operating at 110% and still wasn't enough for the demand over the last two years? 

Fedex for example had a huge growth spurt as a result of Covid. They reported $69.2 billion in revenue for the year ending on 5/2020. They reported $93.5 billion in revenue for the year ending 5/2022. Massive increases in revenue. UPS also had an explosion in revenue in 2020 and 2021.

 

My guess is that as life returns closer to normal; cargo carriers will initially have drops in their revenue like we are seeing here. 

Something interesting is that passenger airlines have not been seeing a drop in travel. They also have a few extra tools that help with future estimates. People can book their flights up to 6 months out instead of like with cargo when a ton of it is on demand. Passenger airlines are still showing future revenue increases and at least have not yet revised those numbers.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

17 minutes ago, Link200 said:

How much of this is a cargo correction considering cargo has been operating at 110% and still wasn't enough for the demand over the last two years? 

Fedex for example had a huge growth spurt as a result of Covid. They reported $69.2 billion in revenue for the year ending on 5/2020. They reported $93.5 billion in revenue for the year ending 5/2022. Massive increases in revenue. UPS also had an explosion in revenue in 2020 and 2021.

 

My guess is that as life returns closer to normal; cargo carriers will initially have drops in their revenue like we are seeing here. 

Something interesting is that passenger airlines have not been seeing a drop in travel. They also have a few extra tools that help with future estimates. People can book their flights up to 6 months out instead of like with cargo when a ton of it is on demand. Passenger airlines are still showing future revenue increases and at least have not yet revised those numbers.

Leading vs lagging could be an explanation

[ort]

My gut tells me that we're living through unprecedented times being influenced by once in a lifetime kinds of events and it's going to be impossible to really predict what the world will be like for the next few years until we more fully restabilize after COVID.

 

Could there be a massive recession? Sure. But the warning signs are probably all out of whack.

[thedarkstark]

1 hour ago, Link200 said:

How much of this is a cargo correction considering cargo has been operating at 110% and still wasn't enough for the demand over the last two years? 

Fedex for example had a huge growth spurt as a result of Covid. They reported $69.2 billion in revenue for the year ending on 5/2020. They reported $93.5 billion in revenue for the year ending 5/2022. Massive increases in revenue. UPS also had an explosion in revenue in 2020 and 2021.

 

My guess is that as life returns closer to normal; cargo carriers will initially have drops in their revenue like we are seeing here. 

Something interesting is that passenger airlines have not been seeing a drop in travel. They also have a few extra tools that help with future estimates. People can book their flights up to 6 months out instead of like with cargo when a ton of it is on demand. Passenger airlines are still showing future revenue increases and at least have not yet revised those numbers.

Certainly that's part of it, we had massive growth since 2019 but e-commerce has really ramped up since then and we weren't really effected by the port delays as much as others (my facility only handles air cargo).