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ODNI assessment forecasts "high" probability of international conflict over water resources by 2040


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BREAKINGDEFENSE.COM

From Asia to the Middle East, worries rise like flood waters over the future of water security.

 

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According to the ODNI report, should things continue the way they are, “transboundary tensions probably will increase over shared surface and groundwater basins as increased weather variability exacerbates preexisting or triggers new water insecurity in many parts of the world.” The report currently rates that while the potential for water conflict is “low” in 2021, it rises to “medium” by 2030 and to “high” by 2040.

 

Pakistan, for instance, relies on downstream surface water from “heavily glacier-fed rivers” that originate in rival India’s territory, enough so that Pakistan requires “frequent data from India on river discharges in order to provide advanced warning to evacuate villages and prepare for flooding,” the report says. Considering the tense, often violent relationship between the two nations, it’s not difficult to see how fragile that dynamic is to climate change.

 

In East Asia, the Mekong River is “already […] an area of growing dispute over dam building, largely by China” because it threatens water used downstream by smaller nations like Cambodia and Vietnam, the report says.

 

More than half of surface water resources in the Middle East and North Africa are “transboundary and all countries share at least one aquifer,” the report says, citing the World Bank. Already several of those are “vulnerable to salt water intrusion, even from minor rises in sea levels, increasing the potential for conflict.”

 

 

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