Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The Russians appear to be using the T-54s/T-55s that were pulled from museums as remote-controlled VBIEDs.

 

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The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.

 

The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG  shot, causing a huge explosion.

 

 

Russia claims to have remotely detonated tank laden with explosives, in apparent new tactic | CNN

WWW.CNN.COM

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Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that a Ukrainian stronghold was destroyed by a remotely-controlled tank packed with a huge amount of explosives, in what appears to be a new battlefield tactic.

 

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Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that a Ukrainian stronghold was destroyed by a remotely-controlled tank packed with a huge amount of explosives, in what appears to be a new battlefield tactic.

 

In a post on its Telegram channel at the weekend, the ministry said that “about 3.5 tons of TNT and 5 FAB-100 bombs” were packed into the tank. FAB-100 bombs normally carry a 100-kilogram (220-pound) payload.

 

In a video shared by the ministry on Saturday, a Russian tank commander, callsign “Bernaul,” said he was assigned with the task of setting up the tank and executing the attack.

 

“About 300 meters (984 feet) away from the enemy, the tank operator put the vehicle on manual gas, directing it [to the enemy’s] direction. He jumped out and went to the rear. I stayed behind to observe, and after the vehicle approached the enemy’s positions, I detonated it by radio control,” the commander said.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

7 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The Russians appear to be using the T-54s/T-55s that were pulled from museums as remote-controlled VBIEDs.

 

 

Russia claims to have remotely detonated tank laden with explosives, in apparent new tactic | CNN

WWW.CNN.COM

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Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that a Ukrainian stronghold was destroyed by a remotely-controlled tank packed with a huge amount of explosives, in what appears to be a new battlefield tactic.

 

 

 

Reading up on this, the strong belief is that these aren't actually remote controlled in any meaningful way, but are more "brick on the gas pedal" drones. That, or have a conscript drive it in a straight line and ditch before it explodes. Apparently the inner workers are so old and manual that making them into drones would require a total rebuild. 

[Air_Delivery]

I don't see how that tactic would possibly work. It isn't like Iraq where they are disguised as civilian vehicles. 

[TUFKAK]

14 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

I don't see how that tactic would possibly work. It isn't like Iraq where they are disguised as civilian vehicles. 

It’s a t54, it’s basically a civilian vehicle at this point.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 20 June 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19. A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attacks northwest, northeast, and southwest of Bakhmut on June 19

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2 pm ET on June 19. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19. A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attacks northwest, northeast, and southwest of Bakhmut on June 19 and claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Krasnopolivka (about 12km northeast of Bakhmut).[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar additionally announced that over the past week, Ukrainian troops in the Tavrisk (Zaporizhia) direction have advanced up to seven kilometers and liberated 113 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked south of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast.[3] Geolocated footage posted on June 19 confirms that Ukrainian troops liberated Pyatykhatky, about 25km southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[4] Milbloggers also reported fighting south and southwest of Orikhiv over the course of the day on June 19.[5] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed on June 19 that Russia has likely deployed large portions of the Dnipro Grouping of Forces from the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia and Bakhmut directions to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions over the past 10 days.[6]

 

Russian forces conducted drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine on June 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched four Kalibr cruise missiles and four Shahed-131/136 drones at Ukraine and stated that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed all the drones and missiles.[7] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched the Kalibr cruise missiles from a submarine in the Black Sea and the Shahed drones from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.[8]

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported that the Chinese government reiterated that it is not providing, and will not provide, lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine. Blinken reported on June 19 that the United States has not seen evidence contradicting Beijing’s claims.[9]Blinken expressed concern that Chinese companies may be providing Russia technology that it can use in the war against Ukraine, however.

 

US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin indicated that it is ready to help Ukraine fly and maintain Lockheed’s F-16 fighter jets if NATO states agree to send them to Ukraine.[10]The Financial Times quoted Lockheed Martin Chief Operating Officer (COO) Frank St. John as stating that Lockheed is prepared to build new F-16s; modify existing airframes; and provide F-16 training, equipment, and systems support if NATO agrees to supply Ukraine with F-16s. US and other Western officials have recently signaled an increased willingness to provide Ukraine with F-16s, as ISW has previously reported.[11]

 

Kremlin-affiliated Russian tech giant Yandex claimed that international sanctions against Russia prevented the company from providing the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) with user data in compliance with a Russian security law, resulting in a significant fine. A Moscow court imposed a two million ruble (roughly $23,795) fine against Yandex on June 18 for failing to provide the FSB with unspecified user data for national security reasons.[12]A Yandex representative claimed that Yandex did not intend to break Russian law but that international sanctions prevent Yandex from purchasing, installing, and configuring the foreign hardware and software necessary to comply with the law. A Moscow court previously imposed a 400,000 ruble (roughly $4,759) fine against Yandex for the same violation in 2022.[13] While it is unclear how foreign technology products would help Yandex comply with Russian law, the situation demonstrates that international sanctions have impacted some aspects of the Russian technology sector and national security apparatus.

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.
• Russian forces conducted drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine on June 19.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported that the Chinese government reiterated that it is not providing, and will not provide, lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine.
• US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin indicated that it is ready to help Ukraine fly and maintain Lockheed’s F-16 fighter jets if NATO states agree to send them to Ukraine.
• Kremlin-affiliated Russian tech giant Yandex claimed that international sanctions against Russia prevented the company from providing the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) with user data in compliance with a Russian security law, resulting in a significant fine.
• Russian forces made gains in the Kupyansk area and continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations while Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Bakhmut.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made marginal gains.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Wagner Group continues efforts to expand its recruitment pool in the wake of significant losses in Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that a car carrying a Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official exploded in Simferopol, occupied Crimea.

 

[CitizenVectron]

The Kakhovka reservoir no longer exists:

 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine appears to have admitted today that the current stage of the counteroffensive is to draw out and destroy Russian artillery (via counter battery fire), thereby clearing the way for larger offensive operations. This has been a working theory by many people, especially why there hasn't appeared to have been any really large commitment of forces by Ukraine in any particular places.

[mclumber1]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Ukraine appears to have admitted today that the current stage of the counteroffensive is to draw out and destroy Russian artillery (via counter battery fire), thereby clearing the way for larger offensive operations. This has been a working theory by many people, especially why there hasn't appeared to have been any really large commitment of forces by Ukraine in any particular places.

 

That's a good counterpoint to some of the headlines I saw today saying that the counteroffensive is/was a failure, and that Ukraine should just capitulate or at least start peace negotiations. 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, mclumber1 said:

 

That's a good counterpoint to some of the headlines I saw today saying that the counteroffensive is/was a failure, and that Ukraine should just capitulate or at least start peace negotiations. 

 

There is heavy Russian disinfo right now (spread by Musk and others) saying Ukraine's counter has failed and stopped, and it's time to negotiate a peace deal (i.e. Russia keeps what it has). It's disinfo. Ukraine has already taken land at a faster rate than the Kherson offensive, and is clearly probing and wearing away at a few areas. The expectation that anything but a route is a failure is false, and placed there by Russia and others.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

15 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

That's a good counterpoint to some of the headlines I saw today saying that the counteroffensive is/was a failure, and that Ukraine should just capitulate or at least start peace negotiations. 

It's hard to know, both sides are trying to project an image of strength.  IMO, a weird aspect of warfare in the age of ascendant digital networks is that to some degree perception is reality.  Being perceived in the mediasphere as 'losing' will negatively affect morale, and thus have concrete negative effects on the ground.  The media outlets and spokespeople of both Ukraine (and to a large degree NATO-aligned countries) and Russia have all the incentive in the world to paint as rosy a picture of their efforts and as dark a picture of the other's efforts as possible, and accuse the other of spreading 'disinfo' when the details of their pictures conflict.

 

This feedback loop between media perception and actual battlefield realities has obviously been present in prior eras of war, but because of the internet's ability to beam news straight to your smart-phone in real time, I feel like it's been intensified and sped up to a degree where it can be hard to distinguish between the truth of a war campaign and the strategically biased representation of that truth.  It's almost like military facts exist in a kind of quantum state of uncertainty that can't be directly apprehended, since any attempt at apprehension requires using tools that are not impartial in their observations, and affect the reality they observe.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 20 June 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on June 20 ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhia oblast.[1]  The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Donetsk Oblast.[2] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 19 that Russian forces have committed significant forces to stop Ukrainian offensives, making Ukrainian advances difficult.[3] Malyar added that ongoing Ukrainian operations have several tasks that are not solely focused on liberating territory and that Ukrainian forces have yet to start the main phase of counteroffensive operations.[4]

 

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations with a relatively high degree of rhetorical coherence, suggesting that the MoD has learned from its past mishandling of the information space during previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the MoD Collegium on June 20 and began his speech by addressing ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[5] Shoigu claimed that the counteroffensive began on June 4, consistent with ISW’s previous assessment of when the counteroffensive began.[6] Shoigu additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops have launched 263 attacks on Russian positions since June 4 but denied that Ukrainian forces have made gains anywhere in the theater, contrary to publicly available geolocated evidence of Ukrainian advances. The fact that Shoigu addressed the counteroffensive in such a public and relatively even-keeled manner (even while maintaining typical MoD denial of Ukrainian successes) is a notable inflection from the Russian MoD’s failure to prepare a unified response to Ukraine‘s Kharkiv and Kherson Oblast counteroffensives in 2022 and the resulting panic in the Russian information space, indicating the Russian information space has somewhat adapted to and learned from past moments of informational collapse.[7]

 

Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike on Ukraine on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 35 Shahed-131/136 drones, seven S-300 missiles, and one Iskander-M missile targeting Kyiv Oblast and civilian infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhia Oblast and that Ukrainian forces shot down 32 Shahed drones.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched the Shahed drones from Bryansk Oblast and the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.[9]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations with a relatively high degree of rhetorical coherence, suggesting that the MoD has learned from its past mishandling of the information space during previous Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike on Ukraine on June 20.
• Russian forces continued a slightly intensified pace of ground attacks near Kreminna.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to lower the requirements for Russian military service in an effort to increase recruitment.
• Russia aims to use the annual International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2023” to diversify and expand its defense industrial base (DIB).

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 21 June 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 21 that Ukrainian troops had partial success during offensive operations in the

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on June 21. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 21 that Ukrainian troops had partial success during offensive operations in the Bilohorivka-Shypylivka direction (about 10km south of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast).[1] A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the areas south and west of Kreminna.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on the Vilne Pole-Makarivka line, and Russian milbloggers continued to discuss Ukrainian attacks in this area, particularly south of Velyka Novosilka.[3] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, both south and southwest of Orikhiv and that Russian forces are counterattacking to regain lost positions in this direction.[4] Russian sources noted a relatively slower pace of Ukrainian offensive operations in both western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts compared to the previous days.[5]

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the progress of Ukrainian counteroffensives has been slower than expected, likely due to effective Russian defenses. Zelensky stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive progress has been “slower than desired” and will take time.[6] Zelensky noted that Ukrainian advances are not easy because Russian forces have mined 200,000 square kilometers of frontline territory.[7] Russian President Vladimir Putin also addressed ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives and preposterously claimed that Russian forces have destroyed 244 tanks and 679 armored vehicles since these operations began on June 4.[8] Russian forces’ doctrinally sound defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast and prepared defensive positions throughout southern Ukraine are likely slowing Ukrainian advances, as ISW has previously assessed.[9] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine, dubbed the “Surovikin Line” after former overall theater commander Army General Sergei Surovikin, consist of several defensive zones between lines along dominant elevated positions up to 30km into Russian held territory.[10] The milblogger claimed that the “Surovikin Line” consists of a forward line of defense with several dozen platoon and company strongholds, and a main defensive line roughly 25km back with minefields, anti-tank ditches, and other defensive structures in between, though the extent of these defenses along the entire front line is unclear.[11] These Russian defensive lines are likely arrayed to enable a first echelon of Russian forces, deployed to the forward defensive line, to slow advancing Ukrainian forces while a second echelon of forces deployed closer to the main defensive line launch counterattacks against any Ukrainian breakthroughs, as well as providing prepared fallback positions for frontline Russian units.[12] Localized Ukrainian territorial gains are unlikely to immediately disrupt these Russian defensive lines and localized Ukrainian attempts at rapid breakthroughs are less likely to degrade these lines than a wider concerted operational effort, one which may be focused on degrading Russian defenders and fixing reserves rather than the immediate liberation of territory.

 

The overall slower than expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks. Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive planning.[13] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar emphasized on June 20 that it is not useful to gauge the success of military actions based "solely by kilometers or the number of liberated settlements.”[14] Malyar’s statement echoes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s observation that war is not a ”Hollywood movie” that will deliver immediate and tangible results.[15]

 

The observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one. Ukrainian forces may be conducting several offensive operations across the entire theater in order to gradually attrit Russian forces and set conditions for a future main effort. Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective. Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin voiced his concern that Russian forces are suffering major manpower and equipment losses as a result of ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in southern Ukraine.[16] The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes.

 

Ukrainian defense industry conglomerate “Ukroboronprom” announced on June 20 that Ukraine built and successfully tested a 1,000km-range drone, indicating Ukraine’s intent and ability to target Russian military infrastructure in Russian-occupied territories and Russia with Ukrainian-made drones.[17] Ukroboronprom Spokesperson Nataliya Sad stated that Ukrainian forces successfully used the new Ukrainian-made drone but did not provide information on whether this drone was already used for strikes. Ukroboronprom previously announced its development of the 1,000km range drone in October 2022. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov told The Economist that Ukraine is at war and that drones over the Kremlin show that Russian defenses are “Potemkin villages” - an expression referring to the purported construction of fake settlements by a historical Russian minister to hide the true state of the Empire from the Tsar.[18] While Budanov did not confirm that the Ukrainian forces previously launched drones over the Kremlin on May 3, US intelligence officials previously assessed that the Ukrainian special military or intelligence units are behind a series of covert actions against Russian targets including the May 3 strike.[19] ISW had previously incorrectly assessed the May 3 attack on the Kremlin may have been a Russian false flag.[20] Ukraine’s focus on development of long-range drones alongside US intelligence indicates that Ukraine will likely continue to pursue Russian rear targets with Ukrainian-made drones. International law allows Ukrainian forces to strike legitimate targets even in Russian territory, especially targets from which Russian forces are launching attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.[21]

 

Russian occupation authorities continue to codify legal mechanisms for forcible deportations from occupied areas of Ukraine. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin signed an order on June 20 that creates a working group to regulate and oversee the creation of “temporary detention facilities for foreign citizens and stateless persons” in occupied Donetsk Oblast and designates these individuals as subject to expulsion or deportation from territory considered to be Russian under Russian law.[22] Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on April 27 that presaged Pushilin’s order by defining those living in occupied areas who refuse to accept Russian passports as “foreign citizens and stateless persons currently residing in the Russian Federation.”[23] The establishment of the new DNR working group essentially sets formal conditions for the DNR government to detain residents of occupied Donetsk Oblast who are classified as “foreign citizens and stateless persons” under the April 27 law and officially designate them as subject to deportation from occupied Donetsk Oblast. The working group will also likely serve as a coercive tool aimed at forcing residents of occupied areas to obtain Russian passports out of fear of arbitrary detention and potential deportation. ISW continues to assess that all lines of effort aimed at codifying and formalizing the deportation of Ukrainians may constitute a violation of the Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, as well as a potential deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the progress of Ukrainian counteroffensives has been slower than expected, likely due to effective Russian defenses.
• The overall slower than expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks.
• Ukrainian defense industry conglomerate “Ukroboronprom” announced on June 20 that Ukraine built and successfully tested a 1,000km-range drone, indicating Ukraine’s intent and ability to target Russian military infrastructure in Russian-occupied territories and Russia with Ukrainian-made drones.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to codify legal mechanisms for forcible deportations from occupied areas of Ukraine.
• Russan and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian military command is reportedly forming a new Azov Naval District as part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
• The Russian State Duma passed a law in the third reading raising age limits for Russian contract personnel and officer, likely to keep personnel currently due to retire in the force.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise of medical necessity.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Early stages of Ukrainian counteroffensive 'not meeting expectations,' Western officials tell CNN | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM

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In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

 

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In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

 

The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.

 

According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively.

 

Ukrainian forces are proving “vulnerable” to minefields and Russian forces “competent” in their defense, one of the Western officials said.

 

The officials cautioned that the counteroffensive is still in its early stages – and that the US and its allies “remain optimistic” Ukrainian forces will be able to make territorial gains over time. The US and its allies are likely to wait until at least July for a fuller assessment of the progress of the counteroffensive which was gradually launched over the last few weeks and is seen as crucial to determining who ultimately wins the war which was launched when Russia invaded last year.

 

[Massdriver]

That was my take just from the lack of positive announcements. 

[Air_Delivery]

I think they might have to call it off this year and wait for longer ranged stuff, more equipment and F-16 and just spend the meantime killing as much artilery as possible. 

[TUFKAK]

1 hour ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think they might have to call it off this year and wait for longer ranged stuff, more equipment and F-16 and just spend the meantime killing as much artilery as possible. 

Unfortunately do we expect American support to continue if the chuds win in 24? They’re in a time crunch.

[CitizenVectron]

2 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think they might have to call it off this year and wait for longer ranged stuff, more equipment and F-16 and just spend the meantime killing as much artilery as possible. 

 

There is no option to do that. They are making progress, just slowly (albeit much faster than Russian over the past year). I imagine their big hope at the moment is that they are destroying enough logistics and artillery (which they appear to be) that in a month or two the Russian frontlines can no longer hold as well. Only time will tell.

 

EDIT - Interestingly, it sounds like Ukraine may have broken through defenses near Krasnhorovka in Donetsk. These are lines from 2014, which would mark the first time Ukraine has retaken pre-2014 territory from Russia. In total, the current offense appears to have liberated around 125 square km, so far.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kreminna area in Luhansk

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:30pm ET on June 22. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces in the Kreminna area achieved partial successes and consolidated themselves in new positions.[2] Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.[3] Shershen added that these Ukrainian advances were tactical measures aimed at improving Ukrainian positions along the front.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces also conducted unsuccessful offensive operations along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City front.[5] Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on June 21 that Ukrainian forces have liberated eight settlements and over 113 square kilometers of territory since starting counteroffensive operations on June 4.[6]

 

Senior Kremlin officials continue to publicly address the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a cohesive manner and acknowledge Ukrainian forces will conduct further operations, while continuing to inflate Russian successes. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed at a Russian Security Council meeting on June 22 that Ukrainian forces are regrouping and restaffing to prepare for further offensive operations in a single unspecified direction after “suffering significant losses.”[7] Shoigu claimed that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are preparing for further offensive operations. Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev claimed that Russian forces destroyed a heavily exaggerated amount of Ukrainian military equipment, including Western-provided equipment. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that his reporting on Ukrainian gains differs from official reports because Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov lie and exaggerate.[8] Prigozhin claimed on June 13 that Ukrainian forces have likely liberated over 100 square kilometers since the start of the counteroffensive, in stark contrast to the Russian MoD’s continual denial of Ukrainian territorial gains.[9]

 

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will form a “reserve army” by the end of June, form a new army corps, and reinforce key Western Military District (WMD) formations as part of intended force restructuring. Shoigu told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia is forming reserves for an unnamed army corps and an unspecified “reserve army” and adding five regiments to the 1st Guard Tank Army and the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army — both part of the WMD.[10] Shoigu noted that the five regiments are already 60 percent staffed and equipped as of June 22. Shoigu’s announcement likely confirms ISW’s previous reports that the Russian military command is forming the 25th Combined Arms Army with recruits from the Russian Far East and is establishing the 40th Army Corps as part of the Southern Military District (SMD).[11] The 20th Combined Arms Army is based on the northeast Ukrainian border and the 1st Guards Tank Army was (prior to February 2022) Russia’s highest quality army, making these formations the logical first recipients of new regiments. Shoigu previously outlined Russian efforts to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023 and 2026 to optimize Russian Armed Forces for large-scale conventional warfare and expand Russian conventional forces on January 17, though as ISW assessed at the time Russia will struggle to fully staff and equip these large formations using existing force-generation processes.[12]

 

The Russian MoD likely seeks to mitigate this force-generation challenge at least in part with volunteer formations.[13] Shoigu claimed that Russia recruited 114,000 servicemen for contract service and 52,000 volunteers — noting that 1,336 people sign contracts with the Russian MoD each day and that Russia can form a regiment every 24 hours. This statement is not to be taken literally though since Russian regiments typically contain over 2,000 personnel.[14] Shoigu added that Russia is not committing volunteers because “there is no urgent need” to deploy these forces to the battlefield. ISW previously observed residents of the Russian Far East receiving messages inviting men to join the 25th Combined Arms Army, indicating that the Russian MoD seeks to directly recruit volunteers to staff its formations.[15] Shoigu also ordered Russian volunteer formations on June 10 to sign military contracts with the Russian MoD by July 1, which will also formally provide additional forces to the Russian MoD for its large-scale military reforms.[16] Russia’s previous attempt to form a volunteer-based 3rd Army Corps in summer of 2022 did not establish a combat-effective force, however.[17]

 

The Russian MoD is unlikely to fully formalize Russian volunteer formations by its stated July 1 deadline. The Russian MoD claimed on June 22 that four additional volunteer formations signed contracts with the MoD and that more than 20 volunteer formations have done so since the MoD began the effort to have all volunteers sign contracts.[18] The MoD previously claimed on June 10 that more than 40 volunteer formations are currently active.[19] The MoD may nominally have all volunteer formations sign contracts before July 1, but the extent of actual command ties is unclear. ISW previously assessed that the MoD’s formalization efforts intend to centralize control over Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive as well as restrict the influence of figures outside of the MoD.[20] It is unclear why a significant portion of volunteer formations have yet to sign contracts with the MoD, although Prigozhin’s criticism that MoD subordination could adversely impact command and control within irregular formations may be reflective of widespread concerns among these irregular Russian forces.[21] The signing of contracts is the first phase of formalizing volunteer formations, and it is unclear if the MoD will be able to quickly, or at all, establish practical and effective control once these formations are de jure subordinated to the MoD, and the scale of implementation will vary between units.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). A Russian-created radiological incident at the ZNPP remains unlikely but not impossible. Zelensky stated that the planned attack would release radiation from the ZNPP, and announced that Ukrainian officials will widely share their intelligence on the planned attack with partners and international organizations in the coming days.[22] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported on June 20 that Russian forces had mined additional areas at the ZNPP, including the facility’s cooling pond.[23] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on June 21 that its representatives have not observed any mines at the cooling pond, although it did acknowledge that Russian forces have mined areas in and around the ZNPP.[24] Russian forces would not be able to control the consequences of an intentional radiological incident at the ZNPP, which could impact their forces more than Ukrainian forces across the Kakhovka Reservoir given conditions at the time of the incident. An intentional radiological incident could also leave many areas in occupied southern Ukraine uninhabitable and ungovernable, further degrading Russia’s ability to cement its occupation of southern Ukraine, and the destruction of the power plant would be a drastic act. Russian forces may be signaling that they are preparing to sabotage the ZNPP in order to dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting counteroffensive operations in the area. The Kremlin has routinely employed threats of nuclear escalation and warned of (largely Russian imposed) threats to the safety of the ZNPP in an attempt to pressure Ukraine to constrain its military actions and prevent further Western security assistance to Ukraine.[25] However, the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam also harmed Russian forces, and possible Russian plans to sabotage the ZNPP cannot be ruled out and should be prepared for by Ukraine and its partners.

 

Ukrainian forces may be intensifying efforts to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on explosions in Melitopol and Yakymivka in Zaporizhia Oblast and Chonhar in Crimea on June 22.[26] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a Storm Shadow strike on the Chonhar Bridge, along the E105 highway connecting Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea.[27] Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also struck a bridge across Lake Syvash.[28] Ukrainian forces may be intensifying their efforts to strike rear areas and vulnerable areas along GLOCs to disrupt Russian supply routes.[29] Widespread Russian milblogger outrage and concern about the strike could indicate that Russian forces may be increasingly concerned over their ability to secure GLOCs in southern Ukraine.[30]

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Western partners have different expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and stated that Ukrainian forces will perform operations as Ukraine sees fit independent of pressure from another country.[31] CNN reported on June 22 that senior US and other Western officials stated the Ukrainian counteroffensive thus far has failed to live up to expectations, but the officials acknowledged that the counteroffensive is still in the early phases and Western states remain hopeful that Ukrainian forces will make significant gains.[32] ISW continues to assesses that the slow pace of current Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukrainian forces’ overall offensive potential and that Ukrainian forces are likely setting conditions for a future main counteroffensive effort which will take time to conduct.[33]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22.
• Senior Kremlin officials continue to publicly address the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a cohesive manner and acknowledge Ukrainian forces will conduct further operations, while continuing to inflate Russian successes.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will form a “reserve army” by the end of June, form a new army corps, and reinforce key Western Military District (WMD) formations as part of intended force restructuring.
• The Russian MoD is unlikely to fully formalize Russian volunteer formations by its stated July 1 deadline.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). A Russian-created radiological incident at the ZNPP remains unlikely but not impossible.
• Ukrainian forces may be intensifying efforts to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Western partners have different expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and stated that Ukrainian forces will perform operations as Ukraine sees fit independent of pressure from another country.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Bakhmut.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts to fight Russian partisans.
• Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested a group of saboteurs in occupied Melitopol that allegedly planned the assassination of unnamed Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials and sabotage against railroads.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Quote

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

 

I really, really wish Kyiv would shut the hell up about this highly unlikely event because we're waaaaaaay past the "boy who cried wolf" stage with it.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Ukraine commander says main offensive reserve yet to be sent into battle | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Head of ground forces says ‘everything is still ahead’ in counteroffensive against Russia

 

Quote

 

The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces has confirmed for the first time that the main force of his offensive reserve is yet to be committed into battle with Russia, saying: “Everything is still ahead.”

 

In an exclusive interview from a military base in east Ukraine, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, spoke of the stresses and difficulties of the fight, with Moscow launching its own offensive efforts in recent days.

 

He said the Russian general staff had anticipated where Ukraine’s forces were at their most dangerous but issued a warning to the Kremlin that he was hunting down the lethal weakness in their lines.

 

 

 

‘Everything is still ahead’: inside a secret military base with top Ukraine general | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi details his experience of war and suggests counteroffensive is just gearing up

 

Quote

 

From the elevated deck of his command post, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, peers down with pinched eyes and furrowed brow at the expanse of scrubland and forest laid out in front of him as an assault unit of soldiers seeks to cross a heavily mined field.

 

It is evident that the general would like a little more speed.

 

“This isn’t a show,” says Syrskyi. The men running from trench to armoured vehicles are preparing for battle. The scene being played out for the general at a military camp in the east of Ukraine was one of their final exercises – and designed to impress.

 

“Ordinarily, it would be quicker,” Syrskyi says when asked whether he is content with what he has seen.

 

 

Quote

 

Syrskyi goes on to describe a dizzying number of moves on the battlefield. The pieces on the chessboard are clear in his mind. But the bottom line sounds ominous: “The Russians are trying to seize the initiative, so the situation is really difficult.”

 

None of this was unexpected, says Syrskyi, who was born in Vladimir, then in the Soviet Union and now in Russia. While some in the Ukrainian military may find comfort in traducing the Russian war effort, enjoying some of the indiscipline and mutiny shared on social media, he describes the situation largely without any such complicating emotion.

 

“We must not underestimate the enemy,” he says. “The enemy has anticipated and continues to anticipate the most dangerous directions of our movements, and builds up strong defences there that are quite difficult to penetrate.”

 

 

Quote

 

Syrskyi is a history buff and his own recent past makes good reading. In the battle for Kyiv, he explains that a turning point was when Russian marines, paratroopers and special forces were approaching the village of Moshchun, just to the north-west of the capital. Ukrainian troops had blown up the bridges crossing the Irpin River as they had retreated but Moshchun remained a gateway.

 

“The defence of Moshchun is an example of what I said about careful planning,” he said. “The Irpin flows into the Kyiv sea [a local term for the city’s reservoir], but its level is lower than the level of the reservoir. The water from Irpin is pumped into the reservoir by a powerful pumping station over a dam. So, realising that we were outnumbered at Moshchun, we made a small opening in the upper part of the dam. We used the features of the landscape. We raised the sluices and flooded the entire area in front of Moshchun that had been occupied by the enemy.”

 

The liberation of the Kharkiv region, meanwhile, was completed through the splitting and outflanking of Putin’s troops as a result of weakness being spotted in the Russian lines near the town of Balakliia earlier in the summer. At the time, Syrskyi was prioritising pushing the Russians farther away from Kharkiv city but later that autumn he went on to exploit what he had seen.

 

 

[mclumber1]

Prigozhin has effectively declared war against the Russian Ministry of Defense from what I'm reading on Reddit.  

 

 

[CayceG]

Prigozhin has shitposted a little too hard and now has caught an investigation into his behavior by the FSB. 

 

 

I don't believe Prigozhin intended to launch a coup. I believe he is just a poster and he's gotten out over his skis with this latest rhetoric. As such, I fully believe the Wagner offices will be raided in the course of the investigation. 

 

 

 

Also, I received this alert upon hearing of the Shoigu/Prigozhin beef:

 

 

[TUFKAK]

Wagner chief accuses Russian military leadership of killing "huge amount" of his fighters in strike on camp

EDITION.CNN.COM

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The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a "huge...

 

[ThreePi]

Saw the ResetEra thread on this blow up. Too much to read through. But figure this must be some misunderstanding. I know there has been "friendly" fire incidents between Wagner and the Russian Army, but seems serious if it blows up bigger than that 

[CitizenVectron]

Grain of salt, could definitely be Ukrainian psyops to provoke Russian infighting.

 

[TUFKAK]

[CitizenVectron]

Reports (unconfirmed) that a large Wagner column has left Ukraine and crossed into Russia, headed towards Novocherkask (Rostov province), the local command station of the theatre. Their official telegram channel just posted "It Begins." 

 

Russia's persecutor general has just charged Prigozhin with organizing an armed insurrection.

[PaladinSolo]

[TUFKAK]

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

It would probably be a really good idea for NATO to at least consider moving to a heightened alert status.

[Jason]

17 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Reports (unconfirmed) that a large Wagner column has left Ukraine and crossed into Russia, headed towards Novocherkask (Rostov province), the local command station of the theatre. Their official telegram channel just posted "It Begins." 

 

Russia's persecutor general has just charged Prigozhin with organizing an armed insurrection.

 

[Air_Delivery]

8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

It would probably be a really good idea for NATO to at least consider moving to a heightened alert status.

I could see Wagner blowing up the nuclear power plant and blaming it on Russia.

[mclumber1]

Once Wagner and the Russian Army start fighting, it might be the perfect opportunity for some of the internal Russian regions to declare independence, and for China to take back Eastern Russian territory, including Vladivostok. 

[Uaarkson]

Lmao.

[CitizenVectron]