Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The governor of Luhansk claims that the Russian offensive is well under way:

 

Russia begins major offensive in eastern Ukraine, Luhansk governor claims | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Serhiy Haidai says Moscow’s forces are trying unsuccessfully to advance westwards in ‘maximum’ escalation

 

Quote

 

Russia has launched a major offensive in eastern Ukraine and is trying to break through defences near the town of Kreminna, the governor for the Luhansk region said on Thursday.

 

Serhiy Haidai told Ukrainian TV that Russian troops had gone on the attack and were trying to advance westwards across a winter landscape of snow and forests. There had been “maximum escalation” and a big increase in shooting and shelling, he said.

 

“These attacks are practically a daily occurrence. We see small groups [of Russian soldiers] trying to advance, sometimes with the support of heavy armour – infantry fighting vehicles and tanks – and sometimes not. There is continuous firing.”

 

He claimed the offensive had not worked. “So far they haven’t had any success. Our defenders have been able to hold them back completely,” he said.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The governor of Luhansk claims that the Russian offensive is well under way:

 

Russia begins major offensive in eastern Ukraine, Luhansk governor claims | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Serhiy Haidai says Moscow’s forces are trying unsuccessfully to advance westwards in ‘maximum’ escalation

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see what Russia is able to accomplish. From the sounds of it, so far they've been repulsed by Ukraine in most places except for their continued effort near Bakhmut. If (and that's a strong if) Ukraine is able to contain Russia's advances, then it will provide Ukraine an opportunity to launch their spring offensive as the Russian effort culminates. But that's assuming Russia is able to sustain their push for 2-3 months, including into the muddy season. It's also possible that Ukraine cannot contain this push and loses a bunch of land in the Donbas. 

[CitizenVectron]

By all accounts (from both sides), Russia's southern offensive aimed at Vuhledar is being smashed by Ukraine. Horrible videos of dozens of tanks/BMPs destroyed, with tank crews on fire and being run over by their own retreating vehicles. It seems that this is another case of Russian command telling them they have to take the town at all costs, and they keep hammering against the Ukrainian anvil with no progress. Besides mines and artillery, Ukraine is even using HIMARS strikes in localized combat against Russian forces at the front. 

[Demut]

17 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

with no progress.

*with little progress

 

At least according to the usual milbloggers. And Denys Davydov, I guess, where I heard it first. The Ukrainians might even give up Bakhmut before long once holding it becomes no longer "profitable" in terms of K/D. They've done so many times before (cf. Soledar for the most recent "big" example). None of this penny-ante stuff really matters though. What'll be important is whether or not the R*ssians are actually gonna go through with their supposedly planned large-scale offensive and how well the Ukrainians manage to weather it in the case that it does happen. If they're forced to use up their reserves just to grind it to a halt then there might not be a spring or even summer counter-offensive for them. Superior HATO equipment only gets you so far if there's only a limited supply of it and your enemy values human life, including their own men, and their diminishing stock of materiel less than a few hundred meters of ground "gained".

  

On 2/28/2022 at 5:50 PM, CitizenVectron said:

You are really going full Demut here.

Rent-free.

[CitizenVectron]

29 minutes ago, Demut said:

*with little progress

 

At least according to the usual milbloggers. And Denys Davydov, I guess, where I heard it first. The Ukrainians might even give up Bakhmut before long once holding it becomes no longer "profitable" in terms of K/D. They've done so many times before (cf. Soledar for the most recent "big" example). None of this penny-ante stuff really matters though. What'll be important is whether or not the R*ssians are actually gonna go through with their supposedly planned large-scale offensive and how well the Ukrainians manage to weather it in the case that it does happen. If they're forced to use up their reserves just to grind it to a halt then there might not be a spring or even summer counter-offensive for them. Superior HATO equipment only gets you so far if there's only a limited supply of it and your enemy values human life, including their own men, and their diminishing stock of materiel less than a few hundred meters of ground "gained".

  

Rent-free.

 

I was describing no Russian progress at Vuhledar. Russia is making slow progress elsewhere, further north. 

[Demut]

They're still making progress at Vuhledar though. Insignificant progress of a few hundred meters at horrendous losses, sure, but progress nonetheless. Look at the most recent tactical maps. Admittedly, you have to zoom in quite a bit to see it but still ...

 

But I guess that's just me being pEdANtiC

[Jason]

I'm pressing X to doubt on this being the real demut.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 09 February 2023:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a response to a press comment, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has "completely stopped" and that

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a response to a press comment, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has "completely stopped" and that "all obligations are being fulfilled" for those currently under Wagner’s employ.[1] Prigozhin also absurdly claimed that over 10 million Americans have applied to join Wagner.[2] The Wagner Group will likely continue to recruit from prisons, albeit in a much more limited capacity. As ISW has previously noted, Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has slowed over the last few months, an assessment confirmed by statistics by the Federal Penitentiary Service that show that decreases in the Russian prison population stabilized between November 2022 and January 2023.[3] This phenomenon is consistent with the overall trend of conventional Russian troops slowly replacing the Wagner Group around Bakhmut, indicating that Russian military command may be shifting away from its reliance on Wagner and therefore on using prisoners as cannon fodder.

 

The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense-industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine while avoiding wider economic mobilization. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives on February 9 and instructed the agency to support federal subjects in developing the production of unmanned aircraft systems.[4] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev previously stated that Russian military manufacturers intend to expand the supply of reconnaissance and attack drones to support operations in Ukraine, and Russian and Iranian officials are reportedly planning to build a factory in Russia to manufacture 6,000 drones "in the coming years."[5]

 

Medvedev visited a tank manufacturing plant in Omsk Oblast on February 9 and stated that Russia needs to increase the production of various armaments, including modern tanks, in response to Western military assistance to Ukraine.[6] Dutch open-source group Oryx reported that Russian forces have lost 1,012 destroyed tanks in Ukraine with an additional 546 tanks captured by Ukrainian forces.[7] Oryx reported that these combined losses represent roughly half the tanks that Russian forces committed to Ukraine at the start of the invasion.[8] Fifteen hundred tanks are enough to equip more than 15 tank regiments or brigades or about 150 battalion tactical groups.[9] The Russian military needs to quickly replenish these tank losses to maintain the ability to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare ahead of a likely increased pace of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. Medvedev likely framed his calls for increased production as a response to Western military assistance to obscure the fact that substantial military equipment losses are driving the need for increased production. The Kremlin’s efforts to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war while avoiding a wider mobilization of the Russian economy continue to be incompatible with the scale of the war that the Russian military is fighting in Ukraine and the scale of Russian military equipment losses.

 

A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal. Many prominent Russian military bloggers harshly criticized Shoigu and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) over news that the 22-year-old son of the Russian Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management won a contract to supply the Russian military with new uniforms.[10] The milbloggers argued that the new uniforms are of inferior quality and overpriced (costing about 130,000-210,000 rubles or $1,780 - $2,875 per uniform) and are part of a petty corruption scheme to enrich the families of Russian defense officials. The Grey Zone Telegram channel—a prominent Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger – wrote an explicative-laden rant to its 426,000 subscribers that Shoigu has lost credibility in front of the Russian nation and that Russian President Vladimir Putin can amend the situation by firing Shoigu, Shoigu’s "entourage" in the Russian General Staff and banning Shoigu and his associates from all Russian military affairs.[11] This is the latest episode in a string of events that has prompted Russian military blogger communities to attack the Russian MoD and senior Kremlin officials for petty corruption and ineptitude resulting in battlefield failures and worse quality of life for average Russian soldiers.[12]

 

The Kremlin continues to show that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures. Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov publicly sparred with Duma Deputy General Viktor Sobolev following Sobolev’s criticism of Kadyrov’s statements on grooming standards in the Russian military being discriminatory against Muslims and calls for the Russian military to fight satanism in Poland.[13] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 9 that the Kremlin is "not participating in this controversy and would not like to give any assessments" about it.[14] The Kremlin will continue to tolerate divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist figures as it seeks to appeal to the wider pro-war community.

 

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners.
• The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine.
• A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal.
• The Kremlin continues to illustrate that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that the Russian military integrated a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) volunteer formation into the Russian Armed Forces.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities detained a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to assassinate Russian occupation officials.

 

[Demut]

I seem to remember some commentator or other (Igor Sushko maybe?) saying that Prigozhin only stopped recruiting prisoners because by now the R*ssian Army itself will be doing so, too, and since his group of merry murderers doesn't exactly have the, uh, best reputation when it comes to their treatment he basically can't compete with them and might as well pretend that it was his free choice. Because he's got 10 million applications to join Wagner from the U.S. ... but he'll only accept 1 million. I still can't tell if he was just taking the piss when he said that or if their levels of derangement have simply reached that point by now, as unbelievable as it may sound.

 

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

I'm pressing X to doubt on this being the real demut.

Of course you do. It'd be trivial to prove you wrong (e.g. using my Steam account which has been continuously in use by me) but where would be the fun in that?

[CitizenVectron]

I love that I now just ignore people I don't want to interact with 

 

[Demut]

Your loss, buddy. Also, "now" meaning you didn't do so in the past or simply didn't know about this function? At least from what I remember this has been possibly for ages.

[Chris-]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

I'm pressing X to doubt on this being the real demut.

I think you can lay your doubt to rest. 

[stepee]

40 minutes ago, Chris- said:

I think you can lay your doubt to rest. 

 

Jason’s radar is SO bad like Demut came in here all Demut as fuck wearing a Demut t-shirt drinking a nice cold Demut-o-cola and Jason is like jeeze wonder if that is Demut

[Jason]

46 minutes ago, Chris- said:

I think you can lay your doubt to rest. 

 

4 minutes ago, stepee said:

Jason’s radar is SO bad like Demut came in here all Demut as fuck wearing a Demut t-shirt drinking a nice cold Demut-o-cola and Jason is like jeeze wonder if that is Demut

 

looks guys the first few posts didn't sound particularly demut-liike

[CayceG]

15 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

looks guys the first few posts didn't sound particularly demut-liike

 

 

[Demut]

Mostly in width in my case, unfortunately

[Air_Delivery]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

looks guys the first few posts didn't sound particularly demut-liike

It was fairly obvious though once he laid a steaming demut.

[CitizenVectron]

US believes that Russia has lost about half of its battle tanks in this war.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 10 February 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on February 10. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched over 100 missiles against critical and civil infrastructure throughout Ukraine

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on February 10. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched over 100 missiles against critical and civil infrastructure throughout Ukraine including S-300 surface-to-air missiles in ground attack mode and air and sea-based Kh-101/Kh-55 and Kalibr-28 cruise missiles.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces also launched seven Shahed-type drones and that Ukrainian air defense intercepted 61 of the cruise missiles.[2] Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces struck Kharkiv Oblast with S-300 missiles from the direction of Belgorod Oblast and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast.[3] Russian milbloggers widely lauded the wave of strikes and claimed they hit energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts.[4] Russian claims of the scale and effectiveness of the strikes are overblown in comparison to official Ukrainian statements, and Russian forces continue to expend already limited stocks of precision munitions on such strikes.

 

Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO. Russian forces fired two cruise missiles from the Black Sea that reportedly crossed Romanian and Moldovan airspace before entering Ukrainian airspace.[5] Russia’s ongoing campaign of missile strikes in support of its illegal invasion of Ukraine will continue to generate peripheral risks outside of Ukraine, such as these overflights or the risk of air defense incidents (as in Poland on November 15, 2022). However, ISW assesses that NATO (and individual member states) are in full control over its responses and the degree to which it chooses to escalate in response to accidental or intentional Russian overflights or other provocations. ISW also continues to assess with high confidence that Putin does not seek a war with NATO and is unlikely to directly risk an escalation.

 

Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the latest point of neuralgia in the Russian information space. Milbloggers latched onto the footage to launch several critiques of Russian military leadership.[6] Russian milbloggers claimed that the same Russian commanders who oversaw highly attritional assaults by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on Pavlivka (near Vuhledar) in November 2022 are responsible for the effort to capture Vuhledar, and argued that the video illustrates that these commanders continue to make the same costly mistakes.[7] One Russian milblogger specifically stated that Eastern Grouping of Forces commander Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov is responsible for Russian tactical failures around Vuhledar.[8] Another Russian milblogger called for public trials to punish high-ranking officers who repeatedly fail on the battlefield and argued that Russian forces will continue to repeat the same mistakes if these commanders remain in their positions.[9] Footage shows these Russian forces engaging in highly dysfunctional tactics that are far more indicative of the fact that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is likely comprised of poorly trained mobilized personnel than of poor command.[10] Russian milbloggers likely blamed Russian commanders to downplay the fact that the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel will likely continue to result in similar tactical failures throughout Ukraine. Russian milbloggers have routinely accused Russian commanders of being responsible for tactical failures throughout the war, likely to shift the overall Russian military failure in Ukraine from the Russian military as an institution onto individuals.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
• Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO.
• Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the next point of neuralgia in the Russian information space and demonstrated the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas as well as in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant

WWW.NPR.ORG

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Satellite data show water levels plummeting at the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir supplies drinking water, irrigates vast tracts of farmland, and cools Europe's largest nuclear plant.

 

[Demut]

I'm not really sure what to make of all the fear-mongering among a certain subset of the diehard Ukie stans on Twitter. They're all like "Waaaaah, the R*ssian offensive is gonna steamroll the Ukrainians, we gotta do something NOW!" after previously downplaying it for the longest time. I guess they might be pushing for faster deliveries that way but that still doesn't explain the timing. Meanwhile, the not-quite-so-dishonest ones among R*ssian milbloggers keep doomposting and I find it hard to believe that all of the sudden they figured out how to pull off sophisticated psyops and are in truth merely feigning weakness à la Sun Tzu.

 

I suppose we'll find out either way in a few weeks at most. Still ... weird.

[CitizenVectron]

14 minutes ago, Demut said:

I'm not really sure what to make of all the fear-mongering among a certain subset of the diehard Ukie stans on Twitter. They're all like "Waaaaah, the R*ssian offensive is gonna steamroll the Ukrainians, we gotta do something NOW!" after previously downplaying it for the longest time. I guess they might be pushing for faster deliveries that way but that still doesn't explain the timing. Meanwhile, the not-quite-so-dishonest ones among R*ssian milbloggers keep doomposting and I find it hard to believe that all of the sudden they figured out how to pull off sophisticated psyops and are in truth merely feigning weakness à la Sun Tzu.

 

I suppose we'll find out either way in a few weeks at most. Still ... weird.

 

You are so dumb

[Demut]

Care to elaborate? Or did you just feel like venting?

 

Fact is that all the "big names" there, at least up until recently, were handwaving away or at least massively downplaying the seriousness of the threat of a R*ssian offensive, saying that they might try but would inevitably just smash their foreheads in, trying to break through Ukraine's well-fortified positions. The supposed danger from Belarus in particular was basically mocked, with some going as far as alleging that if any attack DID come from there it'd be one meant to intentionally get rid of troops (e.g. Wagner's prisoners in order to neutralize Prigozhin as a future threat to Putin's power). Then, all of the sudden, a week ago they started doing a 180° and, in some cases, becoming almost hysterical. There really isn't another word for the contrast between the previous eye-rolling and subsequent posts like, quote:

Quote

Ukrainian military estimates #Russia has prepared 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters for the impending blitzkrieg 2.0.

Especially if you know just how retarded those claims and similar ones like it ("500,000 fresh troops soon-to-be in theater about to launch human wave attacks across the entire front!") are.

[Jason]

[Demut]

[CitizenVectron]

49 minutes ago, Demut said:

Care to elaborate? Or did you just feel like venting?

 

Fact is that all the "big names" there, at least up until recently, were handwaving away or at least massively downplaying the seriousness of the threat of a R*ssian offensive, saying that they might try but would inevitably just smash their foreheads in, trying to break through Ukraine's well-fortified positions. The supposed danger from Belarus in particular was basically mocked, with some going as far as alleging that if any attack DID come from there it'd be one meant to intentionally get rid of troops (e.g. Wagner's prisoners in order to neutralize Prigozhin as a future threat to Putin's power). Then, all of the sudden, a week ago they started doing a 180° and, in some cases, becoming almost hysterical. There really isn't another word for the contrast between the previous eye-rolling and subsequent posts like, quote:

Especially if you know just how retarded those claims and similar ones like it ("500,000 fresh troops soon-to-be in theater about to launch human wave attacks across the entire front!") are.

 

@Commissar SFLUFAN can we ban him for using the R word?

[Demut]

Heh, I'm starting to see why this place is so much smaller now.

 

Also, is my memory just getting bad or have you really always been this annoying? For what it's worth, I don't recall you being such an ass back in the day.

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, Demut said:

Heh, I'm starting to see why this place is so much smaller now.

 

Also, is my memory just getting bad or have you really always been this annoying? For what it's worth, I don't recall you being such an ass back in the day.

 

 

I don't tolerate slurs.

[Demut]

You've been a hostile dick since day one for no reason that I can discern. Not sure what your deal is but you might wanna introspect some. Also, lol.

[CitizenVectron]

4 minutes ago, Demut said:

You've been a hostile dick since day one for no reason that I can discern. Not sure what your deal is but you might wanna introspect some. Also, lol.

 

You haven't even admitted using the r-word is wrong, so get bent.

[Demut]

As if that had anything to do with your previous animosity. Also, can't be all that wrong if the very moderators of this site use it themselves without censure.

 

Besides, it's not like I called anyone one (unlike others in those results).

 

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

get bent.

That's straight-phobic of you. Bad CitizenVectron.

[unogueen]

You're fun @Demut. play with me.

[Demut]

Make a thread in the off-topic forum and I might. This got derailed enough by him already.

[Reputator]

 

Someone told me today was the biggest single day loss of life for Russia since the invasion began. No idea if that's true.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

27 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

Someone told me today was the biggest single day loss of life for Russia since the invasion began. No idea if that's true.

 

Always treat these reports from the UAF with a healthy dose of rational skepticism.