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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (30 May 2024) - Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike some targets inside Russia with American weapons

CitizenVectron
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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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Using calculations on troop levels needed to occupy and control key points based on population/area:

 

realcleardefense.com

WWW.REALCLEARDEFENSE.COM

 

 

Russia would need around 336,000 troops to hold the following areas of Ukraine: 

 

571551_5_.png

 

336,000 soldiers represent about 95% of Russia's active in-deployment military forces. However, using the calculations for Iraq/Afghanistan (of needing around 2% of forces for population, Russia would need about 750,000 soldiers in rotation to hold that area of Ukraine long-term. 

 

They can use reserves and conscripts to bump up their forces by a few hundred thousand, but essentially Russia cannot occupy Ukraine and keep in under control, long-term.

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mclumber1

mclumber1

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9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Using calculations on troop levels needed to occupy and control key points based on population/area:

 

realcleardefense.com

WWW.REALCLEARDEFENSE.COM

 

 

Russia would need around 336,000 troops to hold the following areas of Ukraine: 

 

571551_5_.png

 

336,000 soldiers represent about 95% of Russia's active in-deployment military forces. However, using the calculations for Iraq/Afghanistan (of needing around 2% of forces for population, Russia would need about 750,000 soldiers in rotation to hold that area of Ukraine long-term. 

 

They can use reserves and conscripts to bump up their forces by a few hundred thousand, but essentially Russia cannot occupy Ukraine and keep in under control, long-term.

 

That would also be incredibly expensive to do so.  Russia  won't have any money to fund a long term occupation, unless China is willing to loan them money.

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Jwheel86

Jwheel86

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12 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

That would also be incredibly expensive to do so.  Russia  won't have any money to fund a long term occupation, unless China is willing to loan them money.

 

NATO parking a Division with a Corps HQ in the Baltic States be a good way to force Russia to pull resources pull away from Ukraine.

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Air_Delivery

Air_Delivery

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38 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Jomini's "intelligence briefing" for 11 March 2022:

 

 

One takeaway from this whole affair is that if there was any doubt that drones are the now and future of combat they can rest.

The combat pilot is going to be phased out within the next 20-30 years. 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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14 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I believe those will be the terms Putin demands to end the war: the acknowledged independence of Russian-controlled Donbas, and also the expansion of Russian territory from Crimea to Donbas along the coast.

 

I'm in agreement as well.

 

These terms effectively correspond to the "facts on the ground" as far as territory over which Russian forces have relatively undisputed control.

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Jwheel86

Jwheel86

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2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I'm in agreement as well.

 

These terms effectively correspond to the "facts on the ground" as far as territory over which Russian forces have relatively undisputed control.

 

Besides the obvious humanitarian reasons, does Ukraine have an incentive to accept vs continuing to bleed the Russians for a better deal? 

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

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They probably get a better deal in another week, these guys are so poorly trained, half the IFVs drove away, the infantry scattered, tanks blindly firing in the general direction, lol.  I have no idea if that dude that shot that off is still alive, as i never saw anything move before or after but the response to an ambush seems really bad.

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CheeTo

CheeTo

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2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Jesus Christ almighty

Didn't you know that all planes have been unmanned since the 80's? The pilots you see are just there to assure you'll still get to your destination on time when there is a delay. That part is too hard to automate.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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ISW analysis for 11 March 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from

 

 

Quote

 

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours, and Russian forces in the south face growing morale and supply issues. The Ukrainian General Staff asserted Russia has so far failed to take its territorial objectives for the war and will likely increasingly turn to strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations to undermine civilian support for the Ukrainian government.[1] Uncoordinated and sporadic Russian offensive operations against major Ukrainian cities support the Ukrainian General Staff’s assessment that Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues and have lost the initiative. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 11 that Ukrainian forces are “actively defending and conducting successful counterattacks in all directions,” but did not state where reported counterattacks are occurring.[2]

 

The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia’s war effort to sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave. Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11. The Kremlin is likely pressuring Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine to support Russian forces, though

 

Belarusian President Lukashenko is likely attempting to delay or prevent his entry into the war to avoid costly Western sanctions and Belarusian combat losses. The Kremlin additionally announced plans on March 11 to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to abandon its continuing main effort to encircle and capture Kyiv and will continue to feed replacements and reinforcements into this operation.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.
  • Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
  • Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
  • Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.
  • Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11 in an effort to draw Belarus into the war.
  • The Kremlin announced plans to deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine.
  • Putin reportedly fired several generals and arrested FSB intelligence officers in an internal purge.
  • Ukrainian forces killed the commander of Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army. High casualties among Russian general officers indicate the poor quality of Russian command and control, requiring Russian generals to deploy forward and risk Ukrainian fire to command their forces.
  • Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.

 

     

    DraftUkraineCoTMarch11,2022.png

     

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    SuperSpreader

    SuperSpreader

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    1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

     

     

    When France invaded Mexico no one came to their aid and everyone abandoned them. Despite this 8 year invasion Benito Juárez was able to have the Austrian Hapsburg Emperor Maximiliano executed by firing line despite the pleas from Europe not to.

     

    I'm just saying I hope Ze gets the same pleasure. 

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