Texas turning blue is only a matter of time.

[CastletonSnob]

Look at these Texas election maps.
 

Texas Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis

WWW.POLITICO.COM

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Get real-time 2018 Texas Senate election results & live maps by county. POLITICO's coverage of the 2018 midterm races for Senate, House, Governors & Key Ballot Measures.

 

Texas Election Results 2020 | Live Map Updates | Voting by County & District

WWW.POLITICO.COM

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Live 2020 Texas election results and maps by country and district. POLITICO's coverage of 2020 races for President, Senate, House, Governors and Key Ballot Measures.

 

And look at these older election maps.

 

2006 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Texas

USELECTIONATLAS.ORG

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Detailed state-level election results in the state of Texas for the 2006 Gubernatorial General Election.

2002 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Texas

USELECTIONATLAS.ORG

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Detailed state-level election results in the state of Texas for the 2002 Gubernatorial General Election.

 

Texas Election Results 2014 - NYTimes.com

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

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Election results for the Texas midterm elections

 

As hard as it may be to imagine, several of the major cities in Texas were red. Harris County and Bexar County both went to Perry both times, with Dallas County going to him in 2002. Heck, Sanchez BARELY won Travis County in 2002, and we all know how blue it is now. Abbott won Harris County and Bexar County in 2014.

Now, the major cities in Texas have been blue for a while now, but the suburbs are starting to turn blue as well. Hays County both suburbs of Austin, went blue in the 2018 Senate race and the 2020 Presidential election, as did Fort Bend County, a suburb of Houston. Tarrant County, which had previously been red since 1964, and the last urban area to stay red, went blue in both those elections as well.

Texas WILL turn blue this decade. It's only a matter of time.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Educational polarization goes brrr

[Firewithin]

sweet summer child 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

So is the heat death of the universe

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

In all seriousness, a decade for such a transition does seem wildly unrealistic.

 

It really all does depend on the composition of the shift to Latin demographic plurality within the state.

[BloodyHell]

Lol, it might become purple someday, but not blue.

Texas will have elected Republicans across the board federally when the votes are counted, and that's not changing soon.

[CastletonSnob]

9 minutes ago, BloodyHell said:

Lol, it might become purple someday, but not blue.

Texas will have elected Republicans across the board federally when the votes are counted, and that's not changing soon.

I'd argue Texas is already purple. The cities are blue, and the suburbs are trending blue. It's the rural areas keeping the state red.

[SaysWho?]

If I had a nickel for every state this board didn’t think was going to eventually swing one way or another in the past 16 years, I’d be able to pay off the rest of peoples student loans.

[Xbob42]

3 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

If I had a nickel for every state this board didn’t think was going to eventually swing one way or another in the past 16 years, I’d be able to pay off the rest of peoples student loans.

Hey at least there's something resembling data here as evidence. Prior to November 2020, all I saw online was delusional right-wingers telling everyone that the entire nation was going to turn red, "even California's going solid red in 2020!" it was wild.

[CastletonSnob]

Texas isn't a red state, it's a non-voting state.

 

Here are voter registration figures from the state's biggest county, Harris County.

 

Harris County Voter Registration Figures

WWW.SOS.STATE.TX.US

 

From 1988 to 2020, Harris County only had an above 70% voter turnout ONCE, and has had voter turnout in the 30s FOUR TIMES. Having voter turnout in the 30%s FOUR times in 32 years is, quite frankly, shameful.

[BloodyHell]

22 hours ago, CastletonSnob said:

Texas isn't a red state, it's a non-voting state.

 

Here are voter registration figures from the state's biggest county, Harris County.

 

Harris County Voter Registration Figures

WWW.SOS.STATE.TX.US

 

From 1988 to 2020, Harris County only had an above 70% voter turnout ONCE, and has had voter turnout in the 30s FOUR TIMES. Having voter turnout in the 30%s FOUR times in 32 years is, quite frankly, shameful.

Until it votes the other way, it's a red state.

[SaysWho?]

2 hours ago, BloodyHell said:

Until it votes the other way, it's a red state.

 

You are right in the broad sense -- Texas has voted Republican since the 1980 election -- but I don't think that's the point OP is making, especially since his title is that Texas *turning* blue is only a matter of time, not that it's blue yet.

 

North Carolina votes Republican a lot but it's a purple state since it's consistently competitive. Iowa was won by Obama twice, yet Texas was decided by a closer margin in 2020 than Iowa, as well as Ohio, Nebraska's 1st congressional district, and Maine's 2nd. It was the 9th most competitive state in the country

 

Obama won in 2012 by the same margin Biden did in 2020. Obama lost Texas in 2012 by nearly 16 points. Biden came within 5 and a half points. Hillary lost her election yet lost Texas by 9 points, while Obama lost double digits in 2008 despite winning the electoral vote in a near-landslide. There's clearly a huge shift in the past 14 years.

 

That's what he's saying. He's not making a point that Texas is blue, but that if Democrats continue their efforts that they've laid for about a decade and a half so far and get more people to the polls, they can make Texas a purple state, just as they've made Arizona and Georgia competitive, and then perhaps even a true blue state.

 

Virginia used to be reliably Republican, and despite the fact that there were clearly trends going into 2008, I remember this dude jsher going ballistic that there was any chance Virginia would go blue in 2008. "IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT THERE'S A DEM GOVERNOR OR THAT WARNER IS LEADING IN THE POLLS DY DOUBLE DIGITS OR THAT WEBB IS SENATOR RIGHT NOW I HAVE A REASON FOR ALL OF THEM THAT EXPLAINS IT AWAY VIRGINIA IS RED LIKE THE BLOOD FROM MY URINE!" It was weird, man.

[Zaku3]

On 10/13/2022 at 7:00 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

In all seriousness, a decade for such a transition does seem wildly unrealistic.

 

It really all does depend on the composition of the shift to Latin demographic plurality within the state.

 

Ya about that.

 

The Latino voter shift comes into focus in South Texas | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM

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What first appeared as statistical noise is now becoming clearer: Historically left-leaning Latino voters are shifting toward the GOP, with the potential to swing major races come November's midterm elections.

 

 

"For De La Cruz, attending her first Trump rally inspired her to start a career in politics." I don't want to live on this planet anymore. Can we get those dinosaurs from the last Rick and Morty episode. We need em.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

19 minutes ago, Zaku3 said:

 

Ya about that.

 

The Latino voter shift comes into focus in South Texas | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM

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What first appeared as statistical noise is now becoming clearer: Historically left-leaning Latino voters are shifting toward the GOP, with the potential to swing major races come...

 

 

"For De La Cruz, attending her first Trump rally inspired her to start a career in politics." I don't want to live on this planet anymore. Can we get those dinosaurs from the last Rick and Morty episode. We need em.

 

 

That's exactly what I'm referring to. 

 

While Democrats are still preferred by Latin voters, that margin is shrinking because despite the rhetoric from Trump, et al. the local GOP groups on the ground have done a damned good job of appealing to Latin populations based on their more conservative social/cultural values.

[SaysWho?]

5 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

That's exactly what I'm referring to. 

 

While Democrats are still preferred by Latin voters, that margin is shrinking because despite the rhetoric from Trump, et al. the local GOP groups on the ground have done a damned good job of appealing to Latin populations based on their more conservative social/cultural values.

 

Don't know about Texas, but in Florida, it's been more that many people seriously think somehow Democrats are going to do what the leaders in their previous country did, which is more economics than anything since they're not fleeing their countries because abortion is legal, gay people can get married, and leaders are trying to decriminalize pot.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Educational polarization literally explains all the state and local level polarization shifts post 2014

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

7 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Don't know about Texas, but in Florida, it's been more that many people seriously think somehow Democrats are going to do what the leaders in their previous country did, which is more economics than anything since they're not fleeing their countries because abortion is legal, gay people can get married, and leaders are trying to decriminalize pot.

 

There are probably different dynamics in play between Florida and Texas as those in Florida are essentially fleeing or fled leftist governments.  Naturally, I'm referring to Cubans and Venezuelans.

 

However, my understanding is that the GOP did a pretty good job of outreach to Puerto Ricans who emigrated to the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma as well.

[Zaku3]

8 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Don't know about Texas, but in Florida, it's been more that many people seriously think somehow Democrats are going to do what the leaders in their previous country did, which is more economics than anything since they're not fleeing their countries because abortion is legal, gay people can get married, and leaders are trying to decriminalize pot.

 

Florida is just a haven for right wing reactionary latinos. Absolute tools. I should dress up as Fidel Castro and walk down Calle ocho.

 

One of my prouder high philosphical thoughts is about them actually. They are pawns because with US propaganda they think if say the Cuban Communist Party is overthrown that over night Cuba will become like the United States. Same applies to the Venezuelans. What they don't realize is Cuba is the kind of country the US keeps poor so that it can be rich. Cuba would be a Mexico not a Canada.

[SaysWho?]

6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

There are probably different dynamics in play between Florida and Texas as those in Florida are essentially fleeing or fled leftist governments.  Naturally, I'm referring to Cubans and Venezuelans.

 

However, my understanding is that the GOP did a pretty good job of outreach to Puerto Ricans who emigrated to the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma as well.

 

They have, yeah. They're still one of the most Democratic Hispanic groups in the state, but political experts here say they can fall through the cracks because you can't just get them when they become citizens -- they're already citizens, so you really have to find them, mobilize them. 2020 was interesting because if you look at Miami-Dade, it went Democratic, but not ANYWHERE NEAR where it did in 2016 and prior. But if you look at the rest of the state, Biden improved in so many places compared to Hillary. That's why I'm beating the drum that the "swing" in Florida isn't what people think it is because it's coming from several Hispanic groups but mainly from the Cuban population, and Democrats can right the ship same as they did with other groups. I don't know and don't necessarily think they will for 2022, but it's a problem with solutions.

 

I actually interviewed Nikki Fried several times, and she seems particularly frustrated with the state Democratic machine and started a new PAC, I believe, for Florida. I think people like her and Anna V. Eskamani have a better read of Florida than the old guard with the old guard's fingerprints on many losing campaigns and I hope they succeed.

[Comet]

I’ve heard this headline for the last 20 years. Maybe one day.. 

[PaladinSolo]

I know people keep looking at demographics for TX to turn blue, but what likely actually does it is when TX, KS' itself where they're policies are so bad and affect peoples lives to the point where even the GOP can't support them anymore.  Kinda like whats happening in OK at the moment, where a dem might be their next governor.