UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[chakoo]

11 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Liberal candidate allowed to run for re-election despite past claims of inappropriate behaviour | CBC News

 

 

Kick them the **** out. I think there is also a problematic candidate in BC that mostly flips houses for a living that should be given the boot as well. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

The statement itself is not horrible...it's the fact it was posted on parler to begin with.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

The statement itself is not horrible...it's the fact it was posted on parler to begin with.

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Is there anywhere in Canada that doesn't already provide publicly funded abortions?

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

He may be a doofus, but he's not wrong on this point.

 

Given that almost all provinces are implementing vaccine passports -- was this a missed opportunity for Trudeau?  Probably.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Is there anywhere in Canada that doesn't already provide publicly funded abortions?

 

There are major access issues in New Brunswick and I think PEI. People commonly have to travel to a different province in the Maritimes to get access to abortion. The federal government is currently withholding some healthcare funding from NB over this, I think.

 

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

He may be a doofus, but he's not wrong on this point.

 

Given that almost all provinces are implementing vaccine passports -- was this a missed opportunity for Trudeau?  Probably.

 

I think Trudeau is in the right in this situation (at least legally). The federal government has no way to access provincial health records without the permission of the provinces. The government (as I understand it) made an agreement with all provinces in 2020 to get this data specifically for travel documents (international covid passports), but not for domestic use. This was because the provinces want as much control over health policy as possible (which makes sense...even though imo it should be a federal jurisdiction).

 

Having said that, it would certainly make things easier to have a national proof of vaccination. But...what if most provinces agree, but say, Kenney and Moe don't allow AB and SK data because they are buffoons? 

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

He may be a doofus, but he's not wrong on this point.

 

Given that almost all provinces are implementing vaccine passports -- was this a missed opportunity for Trudeau?  Probably.

 

Federal government I believe already has a system for international travel. Second as much as I think we would benefit from a federally ran system it simply isn't going to fly with most provinces. Lets not forget the covid alert app the federal government setup that most provinces didn't use?

 

Premier dad is just blaming others when forced to do something he doesn't want to do. 

[CitizenVectron]

I found a really good twitter thread on this, @AbsolutSurgen and @chakoo:

 

 

 

The entire thread is good, but tl;dr:

• Feds can't get the data
• Their role (as agreed upon by Ford and other premiers) was to develop a standard dataset (behind the scenes) that can then be queried federally for travel
• The feds cannot have this data, they can only query the provincial databases, and the provinces have to be responsible for setting them up (along with proof of vaccination)

Ford knows all of this, but needs a villain so is blaming Trudeau for something that he is responsible for (delay of provincial proof of vaccination, etc).

[chakoo]

I've mention this as an option on resetera in the past, and I know it runs into a few legal issues but they could be amended (*), The province should really just be building an app that scans/takes a photo of the barcode on back of someone's health card that will report back just a name & green/red status. The app will be for businesses to use, no need for people to have anything special other than their health card which most should keep on them anyways. The province already has this tech because when you get your vaccine in the first place they scan you health card. If there is concerns over a public app being able to decode the card's barcode, the app can simply just take a screenshot which it sends to provinces server for decoding & validation. 

 

* I know there is issues with using your medical card for personal identification but if you even look at the provinces stupid PDFs they list it as something you can provide along with your printout to prove that you are <insert name>.

[AbsolutSurgen]

50 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I found a really good twitter thread on this, @AbsolutSurgen and @chakoo:

 

 

 

The entire thread is good, but tl;dr:

• Feds can't get the data
• Their role (as agreed upon by Ford and other premiers) was to develop a standard dataset (behind the scenes) that can then be queried federally for travel
• The feds cannot have this data, they can only query the provincial databases, and the provinces have to be responsible for setting them up (along with proof of vaccination)

Ford knows all of this, but needs a villain so is blaming Trudeau for something that he is responsible for (delay of provincial proof of vaccination, etc).

It's been obvious for over a year that a vaccine passport system would eventually be needed.  This is all just talk about why it was too difficult (and they didn't start it until way too late).

[CitizenVectron]

5 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

It's been obvious for over a year that a vaccine passport system would eventually be needed.  This is all just talk about why it was too difficult (and they didn't start it until way too late).

 

I think in this case both levels of government are at fault in one way or another. The feds can't make the passport on their own since they can't legally get the data, but they've also been way too slow in getting the federal portal ready (for international use). However, that point is moot if the provinces (the only ones who can actually legally make domestic vaccine cards) haven't even made the cards/apps yet. I'd say most of the blame (today) lays on the provinces (except I guess Quebec, who just rolled theirs out this week). If, by the time most provinces have this data available for use, the feds don't have a portal set up for international travel, then they would share equal fault (for international use, at least).

 

However, this only strengthens my belief that health should be a federal responsibility due to the national threat posed by pandemics.

[AbsolutSurgen]

9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I think in this case both levels of government are at fault in one way or another. The feds can't make the passport on their own since they can't legally get the data, but they've also been way too slow in getting the federal portal ready (for international use). However, that point is moot if the provinces (the only ones who can actually legally make domestic vaccine cards) haven't even made the cards/apps yet. I'd say most of the blame (today) lays on the provinces (except I guess Quebec, who just rolled theirs out this week). If, by the time most provinces have this data available for use, the feds don't have a portal set up for international travel, then they would share equal fault (for international use, at least).

 

However, this only strengthens my belief that health should be a federal responsibility due to the national threat posed by pandemics.

That's the great thing about being the government.  You get to make the laws. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

There are major access issues in New Brunswick and I think PEI. People commonly have to travel to a different province in the Maritimes to get access to abortion. The federal government is currently withholding some healthcare funding from NB over this, I think.

 

He has had the opportunity to enforce the Canada Health Act in New Brunswick -- but hasn't chosen too.  Isn't that on him?

[AbsolutSurgen]

People are criticizing the EKOS polls regional numbers...

So if the national number has a margin of error of 2.9% from a sample of 1,122.  What is the MOE for the subset of data by region? [hint: it's significantly worse]  It's a shame that pollsters don't show the MoE for each chart, so people really understand the quality of data when you are looking at a smaller subset of a dataset.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

That's the great thing about being the government.  You get to make the laws. 

 

Jurisdiction is a constitutional matter, however.

 

44 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

People are criticizing the EKOS polls regional numbers...

So if the national number has a margin of error of 2.9% from a sample of 1,122.  What is the MOE for the subset of data by region? [hint: it's significantly worse]  It's a shame that pollsters don't show the MoE for each chart, so people really understand the quality of data when you are looking at a smaller subset of a dataset.

 

Yeah, people don't get it. One pollster showing CPC at 40% in Atlantic Canada and the LPC at 20% can be exactly as accurate as another showing the reverse. The margins of error are huge in most regional samples. The only ones worth reporting (most of the time) are Ontario, but even then the margin can be like 5-10%.

[AbsolutSurgen]

21 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Jurisdiction is a constitutional matter, however.

If you can point me to anything in the constitution that prevents him from doing a vaccine passport, I would love to see it.  [Even the more modern interpretations from things like the CHA that talk about Provinces having responsibility for "administering and providing health care services" would not preclude a national "vaccine passport".]

[CitizenVectron]

Mainstreet showing a continued tightening:

 

 

They apparently show the Bloc dropping in Quebec, with the Liberals and CPC gaining (with CPC now 2nd in Quebec). While obviously I don't like it when the CPC picks up seats (even though in this case the split actually helps the Liberals more), I am very happy when the Bloc drops. It's unfortunate that they gained in 2019. The LPC have also gained in ON and BC. 

[CitizenVectron]

Also, unrelated to anything much, it appears that mail voting is far lower than expected, so far. Elections Canada was expected 2-3 million mail ballots to be requested, but so far only 350,000 have been requested (I am one of them!). So this is interesting and could affect the election, but I don't think by much (for the following reasons):

• Parties want people to lock in their votes early, which mail voting helps with
• People seem more undecided than normal (and apathetic)
• The CPC would benefit most by having their current support be locked in, but
• Typically conservative voters tend to vote in-person anyway, so
• Not sure if this drop in mail voting will really affect much anyway

[CitizenVectron]

Gigantic regional poll in Quebec by Leger:

 

 

Details here: 

 

Les intentions de vote des Québécois au fédéral – Léger

LEGER360.COM

---

Au cours de la dernière semaine, est-ce que l'opinion des Québécois à l’égard des chefs de partis fédéraux s’est améliorée ou détériorée?

 

[chakoo]

Who’s looking forward to watching two québécois duke it out while three others fumble their way through french?  

 

-edit-

 

Actually are the greens not apart of the french debates? If so wow.

[CitizenVectron]

From the sounds of it, the leaders all fit their stereotypes in French:

 

Blanchet - Arrogant

Trudeau - Scrappy and hot

O'Toole - Okay French, stuck to message but wouldn't give concrete answers

Singh - Okay French, but not relevant

 

The consensus from most commentators is that Blanchet and Trudeau both did well, and that Singh and O'Toole both did poorly. So, nothing much should change in Quebec at the moment. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Daily trackers today showing tightening. Some good attack ads from both LPC and CPC are also out now.

[AbsolutSurgen]

7 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Daily trackers today showing tightening. Some good attack ads from both LPC and CPC are also out now.

Good attack ad?  How can there be such a thing?

[CitizenVectron]

4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Good attack ad?  How can there be such a thing?

 

I should rephrase to "effective" ads, lol, focused on perceived weaknesses in both leaders.

 

In other news, this is a good idea:

 

 

I mean, at this point it's really the PPC voters who need convincing, I guess.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

That's great! I'm glad that (PPC excepted) the pandemic is a non-partisan issue in Canada. Our multi-party system can suck sometimes, but in this case the loonies have mostly moved into a fringe party, leaving all the major ones to be united on this front.

 

In polling news, the rising fourth wave will...help the Liberals?

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Undercounting Millenials in polls probably doesn’t matter. 

[CitizenVectron]

29 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Undercounting Millenials in polls probably doesn’t matter. 

 

Are some of the polls undercounting millennials?

 

Unrelated, but there were a few good threads on twitter last week about the difference between the IVR and online polls (the former showing higher conservative numbers than the latter), and it basically comes down to some evidence/research from Australia that young people do answer robocall surveys on their cell phones...but the people that do so tend to be more conservative than the general young population. When adjusting for this, the two types of polling tend to line up better, at least in Australia. The same could be true in Canada. 🤷‍♀️

 

Either way, the two types of polls have definitely a bit, though online polls still show a closer race than the IVRs.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Are some of the polls undercounting millennials?

 

Unrelated, but there were a few good threads on twitter last week about the difference between the IVR and online polls (the former showing higher conservative numbers than the latter), and it basically comes down to some evidence/research from Australia that young people do answer robocall surveys on their cell phones...but the people that do so tend to be more conservative than the general young population. When adjusting for this, the two types of polling tend to line up better, at least in Australia. The same could be true in Canada. 🤷‍♀️

 

Either way, the two types of polls have definitely a bit, though online polls still show a closer race than the IVRs.

 

Unrelated but do you guys have an obscene number of spam calls about "your vehicle's extended warranty"?

 

At least here in the US, because of this I consider anyone who answers their phone for an unknown number to be a psychopath 

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Unrelated but do you guys have an obscene number of spam calls about "your vehicle's extended warranty"?

 

At least here in the US, because of this I consider anyone who answers their phone for an unknown number to be a psychopath 

 

Yes but it's for Air Duct cleaning service, automated messages from the chinese consulate in chinese, and a few other fake "you've won" contest.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Unrelated but do you guys have an obscene number of spam calls about "your vehicle's extended warranty"?

 

At least here in the US, because of this I consider anyone who answers their phone for an unknown number to be a psychopath 

 

3 hours ago, chakoo said:

 

Yes but it's for Air Duct cleaning service, automated messages from the chinese consulate in chinese, and a few other fake "you've won" contest.

My favourite is the Indian guy calling from Visa MasterCard about fraudulent spending. 

[Brick]

I got a text from the Conservatives the other day. Seriously where the fuck have I put my contact info that they're getting it from!?