UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[AbsolutSurgen]

40 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

For sure! My comment was more that BC is made even more difficult by the language issue, but the real challenge is the three-way race, and how much of the support for NDP and CPC is concentrated in certain regions, making the provincial topline even less important. But there are certainly a lot of places where polling is increasingly difficult. Having said that, pollsters did quite well in 2019 on the topline numbers, and some of the aggregates did a decent job on the riding-level predictions. But like you've said before, the polls are generally better to get a feel for trends and the general support of a party. I have no doubt that both the CPC and LPC are somewhere between 30-35 each, right now, but I wouldn't place a bet on nailing that down to a 1-2% range. lol, really, the only constant has been that the NDP are at 20% in almost all polls, haha.

 

 

Though I do think we're in for another final result where the LPC and CPC are within 1-2% of each other in the national vote, there is a not-insignificant chance that the LPC could pull off a majority with as little as 34% of the national vote, which is insane. Last night I listened to a Twitter Spaces meeting with Quito Maggi and a bunch of other pollsters and journalists, and Quito (who owns Mainstreet) was saying that his tracking shows the LPC and CPC in a statistical tie, but that the LPC are still likely 30-40 seats ahead thanks to their incredibly efficient voter spread in Ontario and Quebec, and the CPC having too much of their national support concentrated in AB/SK. I think he also said that the CPC would need to win by more than 1%, and the LPC be below 31-32% for the CPC to have a chance at a minority. So basically, the real numbers to watch are these three (the most likely things to hurt the LPC):

• NDP numbers in the GTA (the 10-12 seats the NDP look to pickup are here, and are losses for the LPC, mostly
• Bloc numbers in QC. Right now they are low, but if they move up even 3-5%, the LPC could lose 5-10 seats
• CPC numbers in QC. A few polls now have them tied for 2nd in QC (though still far behind the LPC). This could mean the BQ and CPC trading 3-5 seats. However, if the split is efficient, it could also mean the LPC pick up 2-5 extra seats

Our election system is so fucked up. I really, really want there to be a constitutional crisis where we can't get a solid government in place and the parties are somehow forced to agree to proportional rep.

I listened to part of that last night (I was reading to my daughter, so only heard half of it).  I'm surprised you stayed on given the amount of right leaning speakers (including your favourite Toronto Sun journo).

 

I really don't see the CPC forming a minority government, even if they have more seats than the LPC.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I listened to part of that last night (I was reading to my daughter, so only heard half of it).  I'm surprised you stayed on given the amount of right leaning speakers (including your favourite Toronto Sun journo).

 

I really don't see the CPC forming a minority government, even if they have more seats than the LPC.

 

I think they'd need a pretty clear minority. I think that if the LPC+NDP >170, then Trudeau will stay in power, even if the CPC>LPC. Not sure what will happen if it's LPC+NDP+BQ > 170. 

 

And yes, I did have difficulty listening to Brian Lilley, I find him insufferable.  

[CitizenVectron]

Based on Mainstreet's regional numbers. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Good news for Canadian politics.

[CitizenVectron]

Absolutely true, and good news:

 

 

[SilentWorld]

On 8/21/2021 at 10:17 AM, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Good news for Canadian politics.

 

The people’s party still exists??? And what the hell is the maverick party?

[CitizenVectron]

54 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

 

The people’s party still exists??? And what the hell is the maverick party?

 

Western independence party running candidates in BC, AB, and SK.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Federal polls | 338Canada

Look how fast the 10+ ppt LPC poll lead disappeared.  Liberal minority looking more and more likely -- though election is still a long way off.

[SuperSpreader]

On 8/22/2021 at 8:17 AM, CitizenVectron said:

Absolutely true, and good news:

 

 

Fake news. We are number 1 at everything. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Well, also, that sort of small-potatoes issue is a total "gotcha" question. "Oh, you say you care about the environment? Well why do you have shoes with rubber soles?" etc.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

Well, also, that sort of small-potatoes issue is a total "gotcha" question. "Oh, you say you care about the environment? Well why do you have shoes with rubber soles?" etc.

Soon our politicians will be arguing if their Twitter posts have warning labels...

Twitter adds warning label to tweet from Liberal candidate Chrystia Freeland | CBC News

Nope...  Already happened.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

PPC? Maverick? PPC has been polling high the last few days 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

10 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

PPC? Maverick? PPC has been polling high the last few days 

 

 

Liberals/NDP/PPC all appear to be in a dead heat in Alberta.

[CitizenVectron]

58 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Liberals/NDP/PPC all appear to be in a dead heat in Alberta.

 

I'm guessing that Mainstreet is an outlier on PCC in Alberta (especially with a too-low sample size/large margin of error), but it certainly would be interesting if Bernier gets 10-20% of the vote in AB. Just a guess, but I think it would help the LPC/NDP the most. The reason I say that is because the PPC sapping support anywhere outside Edmonton/Calgary is not going to flip any seats, but even lowering the CPC vote by 5% in Edmonton could swing a few extra seats to the LPC, and maybe NDP. I mean, the net result would be smal.

[CitizenVectron]

Few new polls. Race seems to be stabilized (for the moment):

 

 

 

This can (and I'm sure, will) change, but at this point it looks like the real winner of this election could be the NDP.

[CitizenVectron]

Liberals also tackling housing crisis:

 

Liberals will take aim at real-estate speculation, propose homebuyers’ ‘bill of rights’ in ambitious housing policy | The Star

 

Looks like a total ban on foreign home buyers, and 1.4 million new homes in the next four years. All three major parties are now promising something similar (making it harder for speculators to buy, and making it easier to get homes built).

[CitizenVectron]

Mainstreet's numbers are way out of line of most other pollsters right now. An outlier? Or catching the early trend? They were the best in the NS election (caught the PC rise in the last 2-3 days). But that doesn't mean they will always be accurate. If they are showing PPC 2nd in AB, CPC up in ON, but LPC way up in Atlantic Canada...it's the opposite of everyone else...and not even consistent in terms of a partisan lean!

[AbsolutSurgen]

Mainstreet is now saying CPC minority is more likely than LPC.  

 

And their Alberta projection:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

5 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Mainstreet is now saying CPC minority is more likely than LPC.  

 

And their Alberta projection:

 

 

 

Yeah...not sure about all their regional numbers. At this point, I wouldn't trust anyone's regional samples unless they do a 2x or 3x. Quebec is the only province that gets regular polling specific to it, as far as I am aware (due to it's unique political culture). Right now I only trust the toplines, which all basically show the CPC and LPC between 31-33% (with a slight edge to LPC). Traditionally this means an LPC minority due to vote efficiency in Ontario. Obviously if the ON numbers are true (CPC lead) then this would change things. 

 

I really wish we had more regular regional polling. I want a poll of Ontario with > 1,000 sample size.

 

EDIT - Also, if you look at their regional seat projections (just from Mainstreet, even with a CPC ON lead), you end up with:

 

LPC - 141

CPC - 133

NDP - 32

BQ - 30

GRN - 2

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Yeah...not sure about all their regional numbers. At this point, I wouldn't trust anyone's regional samples unless they do a 2x or 3x. Quebec is the only province that gets regular polling specific to it, as far as I am aware (due to it's unique political culture). Right now I only trust the toplines, which all basically show the CPC and LPC between 31-33% (with a slight edge to LPC). Traditionally this means an LPC minority due to vote efficiency in Ontario. Obviously if the ON numbers are true (CPC lead) then this would change things. 

 

I really wish we had more regular regional polling. I want a poll of Ontario with > 1,000 sample size.

 

EDIT - Also, if you look at their regional seat projections (just from Mainstreet, even with a CPC ON lead), you end up with:

 

LPC - 141

CPC - 133

NDP - 32

BQ - 30

GRN - 2

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah, for sure. Also I don't expect most people to really pay attention until after Labour Day.

 

There are so many ways this can go, and, while I only trust the topline numbers in terms of accuracy (and with 2-3% margin of error, at that), I also know that they don't mean squat. The LPC, if it gets it's usual 5-10% lead in ON, can win the most seats even while losing the national vote by 3-5%, potentially (especially if the BQ is weak in QC). On the other hand, if the CPC can pull ahead in ON and tie the vote count there, and the BQ overperform in QC, they can win the most seats while being behind 2-3% in national numbers.

 

Most polls also show a huge amount of fluidity right now in NDP numbers, especially, with something like 40% of NDP saying they are willing to switch their vote (with the majority being open to voting LPC). So if it does look like the CPC could win, we could potentially see the standard 1-2% drop in NDP support at the polls (at the benefit of the LPC). However, Singh is pretty popular, so that usual trend might not hold. And, of course, some of that PPC vote could come home to the CPC (though most is in the west, where they already dominate).

 

Basically, my rambling can be summed up as: the numbers don't matter because our system is too complex to determine a likely winner unless one side is clearly ahead of the other.

[CitizenVectron]

Also, while I obviously do not want the CPC to win, I also know it's not the end of the world if they do. I won't like some of their decisions, but as a white man in IT, I will be fine. I think the biggest thing that is under threat is the $10 daycare elimination. The CPC plan is, frankly, horrible. It works out to roughly the same amount...but parents would have to pay all costs up front, and then get a 75% tax credit back. So...that eliminates most low and middle-income people from taking advantage. "Sure, just pay the $36,000 up front in 2022, but you'll get 75% of that back the next year!"

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Yeah, for sure. Also I don't expect most people to really pay attention until after Labour Day.

 

There are so many ways this can go, and, while I only trust the topline numbers in terms of accuracy (and with 2-3% margin of error, at that), I also know that they don't mean squat. The LPC, if it gets it's usual 5-10% lead in ON, can win the most seats even while losing the national vote by 3-5%, potentially (especially if the BQ is weak in QC). On the other hand, if the CPC can pull ahead in ON and tie the vote count there, and the BQ overperform in QC, they can win the most seats while being behind 2-3% in national numbers.

 

Most polls also show a huge amount of fluidity right now in NDP numbers, especially, with something like 40% of NDP saying they are willing to switch their vote (with the majority being open to voting LPC). So if it does look like the CPC could win, we could potentially see the standard 1-2% drop in NDP support at the polls (at the benefit of the LPC). However, Singh is pretty popular, so that usual trend might not hold. And, of course, some of that PPC vote could come home to the CPC (though most is in the west, where they already dominate).

 

Basically, my rambling can be summed up as: the numbers don't matter because our system is too complex to determine a likely winner unless one side is clearly ahead of the other.

I agree with you -- didn't we have this same conversation a few days ago?  

 

While it is possible that Mainstreet's numbers are accurate -- I don't believe it.  This is what they are showing for Ontario (which is a DRAMATIC change from the prior day).

 

 

[chakoo]

I know it’s been said about the polls but I still don’t see a CPC minority happening. If we get close to the end and that is happening then ndp numbers will collapse to prop up the lpc and keep the CPC from winning.

 

I just don’t see the CPC love in Ontario, hell if a vaccine passport happens that will just piss off that base more to ppc which will split that vote.

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 hours ago, chakoo said:

I know it’s been said about the polls but I still don’t see a CPC minority happening. If we get close to the end and that is happening then ndp numbers will collapse to prop up the lpc and keep the CPC from winning.

 

I just don’t see the CPC love in Ontario, hell of a vaccine passport happens that will just piss off that base more to ppc which will split that vote.

There's no CPC love from what I can see.  There is, however IMO,  a lot of Trudeau dislike in the 905 though that won't go NDP.  The question is whether the CPC can flip enough of these people (many of whom voted Conservative in the provincial election) to vote CPC federally.  I don't think they can -- but that's what it would take to them to win.

 

Jagmeet is by far the best leader in the election, and his popularity is just increasing - I don't see his numbers collapsing the same way they did in '19.  O'Toole is just not as scary to most people as Scheer was.

[Brick]

I keep getting letters in the mail from O'Toole. Why? Where did I put in my address that is causing this, and how to I get it to stop? No one else in my family is receiving letters. I'm not voting for him, so I don't want these stupid letters.

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

There's no CPC love from what I can see.  There is, however IMO,  a lot of Trudeau dislike in the 905 though that won't go NDP.  The question is whether the CPC can flip enough of these people (many of whom voted Conservative in the provincial election) to vote CPC federally.  I don't think they can -- but that's what it would take to them to win.

 

Jagmeet is by far the best leader in the election, and his popularity is just increasing - I don't see his numbers collapsing the same way they did in '19.  O'Toole is just not as scary to most people as Scheer was.

 

I personally don't see enough 905 people peeling off for CPC, It's not just that O'Tool is not seen as being as scary it's that ford has done a lot to piss people off in this province. With the rising cases here for a 4th wave and business getting fed up over the lack of action on anti-vaxers fucking everything up will push more people away from the CPC IMO. 

 

I'm not gonna lie, LPC messaging atm has been pretty week while CPC came out swinging from the start but I think once their messaging ramps up closer to the election you'll see CPC & NDP numbers dropping. 

 

58 minutes ago, Brick said:

I keep getting letters in the mail from O'Toole. Why? Where did I put in my address that is causing this, and how to I get it to stop? No one else in my family is receiving letters. I'm not voting for him, so I don't want these stupid letters.

Hey, at least it's not text messages. I can't remember if it was me or my in law who got an automated text message last election asking if CPC had our support. I noticed some people on resetera started getting them again.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Canada Minister for Women and Gender Equity:

 

[CitizenVectron]

Yep, super dumb move. She's also the minister who was responsible for electoral reform after 2015 and then did jack squat (though that may not have been her fault, and more of a directive from the PMO).

 

EDIT - Polls today are wildly different. Nanos has the Liberals ahead by 3, Mainstreet has the CPC ahead by 3! Though in Mainstreet's case, they say their regional numbers still point to an LPC victory. Apparently their national (and even regional) numbers don't line up with their riding numbers. Strange. 

[chakoo]

oh man, I saw two PPC lawn signs in rosedale today. I'm maybe not totally surprised but still a little.  Yet with that said I don't see chrystia freeland not winning her seat.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

There really is a portion of the population that do not understand the difference between the NDP and the Liberals.  The NDP needs to runs a campaign that clearly shows that difference (because, IMHO it is really different).

 

Singh could probably be just as effective in achieving his priorities with a PC minority government as a Liberal minority government.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]