Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 10 May 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9. Geolocated footage published on May 9 and 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely conducted successful limited counterattacks north of Khromove (immediately west of

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9. Geolocated footage published on May 9 and 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely conducted successful limited counterattacks north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Bila Hora (14km southwest of Bakhmut) and made marginal advances in these areas.[1]Ukrainian sources claimed on May 9 that Ukrainian forces destroyed the 6th and 8th companies of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps near Bakhmut and advanced 2.6km along a 3km frontline in the area, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these reported wider Ukrainian advances.[2] A prominent Russian [3]milblogger claimed on May 10 that the Ukrainian forces tried to advance further in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade’s zone of responsibility in the Bakhmut area following Ukrainian counterattacks on May 9 but that formations of an unspecified Russian paramilitary company (PMC) prevented a Ukrainian breakthrough.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are constraining the actions of Ukrainian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut.[5] ISW has previously assessed that reports of Ukrainian counterattacks throughout Donetsk Oblast appear to be a part of an ongoing pattern of localized and limited counterattacks.[6]

 

Pervasive issues with Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks. The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade itself is emblematic of many of the endemic force generation issues constantly faced by the Russian military. ISW reported on August 7, 2022, that the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade was forming in Orenburg Oblast as part of the 3rd Army Corps, a new formation created in 2022 and largely comprised of volunteer battalions.[7] Forbes reported in September of 2022 that the 3rd Army Corps deployed to Kharkiv Oblast and that the Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive largely destroyed the corps’ constituent elements, likely including the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.[8] Ukrainian media suggested that the surviving elements of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade may have redeployed to Mykolaiv Oblast following the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive, where they once against suffered losses during Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive in October 2022.[9] ISW cannot confirm where the 72nd Brigade deployed to following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River, but it is highly likely that whatever elements of the 72nd Brigade that deployed to the Bakhmut area more recently are not operating at anywhere near full strength. The Russian military command’s apparent commitment of elements of a formation that has suffered two successive defeats to the Bakhmut axis alongside already attrited Wagner elements likely offer Ukrainian forces opportunities to exploit with limited counterattacks. A Russian milblogger, citing a Wagner commander active in the Bakhmut area, additionally reported that the alleged withdrawal of the 72nd Brigade was the result of severe miscommunication between command of the 72nd Brigade and the Wagner Group.[10] Issues with the ad hoc commitment of various depleted force groupings to the Bakhmut axis, alongside apparent command and control failures, are likely preventing Russian forces in the area from conducting sound defensive operations.

 

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck a command center where high-ranking Ukrainian military commanders and officials were located, likely to support an ongoing effort to frame Russian operations as constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 10 that Russian forces struck the command post near Chasiv Yar (12km west of Bakhmut), killing Ukrainian Chief Advisor to the Directorate for Domestic and Humanitarian Policy Alexei Titarenko.[11] Russian milbloggers speculated that the strike may have killed other high-ranking Ukrainian commanders and officials and stated that the strike has prompted completely unsubstantiated rumors, which Ukrainian officials have explicitly denied, that it killed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valery Zaluzhnyi.[12] Milbloggers acknowledged that the strike likely did not kill Zaluzhnyi but argued that it may be affecting his decisions to attend certain events.[13] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that all the Ukrainian commanders in question are alive and that claims about the killing of Ukrainian commanders are a part of a Russian information operation aimed at degrading Ukrainian morale.[14] ISW assessed that Russian ultranationalists recently claimed that Russian forces struck a vehicle carrying Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander General Ihor Tantsyura to frame Russian operations as limiting Ukrainian abilities to conduct counterattacks in the Bakhmut area.[15] Russian sources have also largely framed increasingly routine series of Russian air and missile strikes as similarly constraining potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[16] There is no evidence to support these Russian claims.

 

The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed on May 9 that Ukrainian forces successfully used the Patriot missile defense system to shoot down a Russian missile for the first time.[17] Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk had reported that Ukrainian forces used the Patriot system to shoot down a missile in the air over Kyiv Oblast at night on May 4.[18] The Biden administration also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on May 9.[19] The package includes additional air defense systems, 155-mm artillery rounds, and equipment to integrate Ukrainian air defense systems with Western-supplied equipment.[20]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
• Pervasive issues with Russian combat capabilities, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck a command center where Ukrainian military commanders and officials were located, likely to support an ongoing effort to frame Russian operations as constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot missile defense system. The Biden administration also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna areas.
• Russian and Wagner Group forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on May 10, despite Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s previous threat that Wagner would withdraw from the area at midnight.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree calling up citizens from reserves for military training.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing the removal of Ukrainian residents from their homes in occupied areas under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The Storm Shadows have been delivered to Kyiv.

 

Exclusive: Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM

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The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

 

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The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

 

“The UK has previously said that it will supply Ukraine with long-range weapons, this will now include a number of Storm Shadow missiles. The British Government has been clear that this is only in response to Russia’s deliberate targeting of civilian national infrastructure and is a proportionate response,” a Western official told CNN.

 

The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles, it is just short of the 185-mile range capability of the US-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, that Ukraine has long asked for.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The Storm Shadows have been delivered to Kyiv.

 

Exclusive: Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM

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The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

 

 

 

Excellent.

 

Zelenskyy is out there doing some psyops work:

 

Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive

WWW.BBC.COM

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Ukraine's president says in an interview his country would "lose a lot of people" if it attacks now.

 

I expect Ukraine to flood the zone with conflicting information for the next few weeks. Apparently late-May is the most optimal timeframe for a push, as the ground will be mostly solid in the south (and good in the east). But depending on conditions, they could make some earlier or later moves. I expect they will attempt to overwhelm the Russians with misinformation until then, including recon in force missions, etc.

 

Re: Storm Shadows:

 

[CitizenVectron]

https://www.news24.com/news24/Politics/Government/breaking-us-ambassador-says-south-africa-gave-weapons-to-russia-for-ukraine-war-20230511

 

US ambassador says South Africa gave weapons, ammunition to Russia for Ukraine war

 

Is anyone surprised?

[mclumber1]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

https://www.news24.com/news24/Politics/Government/breaking-us-ambassador-says-south-africa-gave-weapons-to-russia-for-ukraine-war-20230511

 

US ambassador says South Africa gave weapons, ammunition to Russia for Ukraine war

 

Is anyone surprised?

 

Why does South Africa act this way?  It seems so odd that they are so far out of step with the rest of former British colonies.

[Mr.Vic20]

23 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Why does South Africa act this way?  It seems so odd that they are so far out of step with the rest of former British colonies.

Chinese & Russian Influence 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

More visual and geo-located confirmations that Ukraine is retaking ground in Bakhmut. I question the decision to hold the city for tactical reasons...but it appears to have probably worked, in terms of grinding down tens of thousands of Russians.

[CitizenVectron]

Photo of T-55 (designed in 1946) in front-line usage by the Russians, complete with double cope cage on top:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

UK has confirmed that the RFP for long-range missile system for Ukraine is separate from the already delivered Storm Shadows. It's suspected the UK is planning to purchase Turkish ballistic missiles with a range of 300-500km.

[CitizenVectron]

Ukrainians have turned out to be masters of war PR, which should be no surprise considering their PR campaign at the outset of the war. In recent days Russian telegram channels are basically all doom, they are seeing Ukrainian tanks and troops in every shadow. They are fearing Ukrainian missile strikes deep inside Russia, they think massed tank formations are coming over the next hill, etc. In reality, while Ukraine is almost certainly outgunning/manning Russia at this point (in raw numbers excluding artillery)...they don't have the true capability to actually push Russia out. Unless they can make the Russians panic, and allow breakthroughs as a result. Not that I'm predicting this. And even a "big" breakthrough is not actually pushing Russia out at this point, it's mostly taking back a chunk of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia. 

 

We are basically entering the opening part of The Batman.

[CitizenVectron]

Oh, and while fighting the war, Ukraine has continued to develop their own tank design, the BM Oplot, based on the T-84 chassis (which is itself a Ukrainian tank designed off the Soviet T-80):

 

They demoed a BM Oplot in Kharkiv today:

 

 

After this war is over, Ukrainian mechanics and engineers are going to be able to name their price in getting hired for foreign militaries. At this point they have the most-varied military in the world, in terms of types of gear they are simultaneously operating and making fit together.

[CayceG]

15 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Oh, and while fighting the war, Ukraine has continued to develop their own tank design, the BM Oplot, based on the T-84 chassis (which is itself a Ukrainian tank designed off the Soviet T-80):

 

They demoed a BM Oplot in Kharkiv today:

 

 

After this war is over, Ukrainian mechanics and engineers are going to be able to name their price in getting hired for foreign militaries. At this point they have the most-varied military in the world, in terms of types of gear they are simultaneously operating and making fit together.

 

 

They've been demoing that specific tank for 15 years now. They can't fund the construction of many. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 11 May 2023:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander

 

 

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Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

 

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2:00 pm ET on May 11. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces retreated up to two kilometers behind Russian lines in unspecified sectors of the Bakhmut front.[1] Syrskyi’s confirmation of Ukrainian gains prompted a response from Prigozhin, who claimed that Ukrainian forces have started the counteroffensive and recaptured three kilometers of ground in and around Bakhmut.[2] The Russian MoD acknowledged the Ukrainian counterattacks uncharacteristically quickly, claiming that Russian forces repelled eight ground attacks and three reconnaissance-in-force efforts in the Donetsk direction but denied reports that Ukrainian forces broke through the Russian defensive lines.[3] Prigozhin’s and the MoD’s responses are reflective of increased panic in the Russian information space over speculations about planned Ukrainian counteroffensives and indicate increased concern among Wagner and Russian MoD leadership as well as reflecting Kremlin guidance to avoid downplaying Ukrainian successes.[4]

 

The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there. The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off Wagner Group penal recruitment efforts, which likely prompted Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.[5] The Russian MoD briefly allocated more resources to the Bakhmut front line in March and April by sending T-90 tanks and Russian Airborne (VDV) forces to the Bakhmut area and assigning mobilized reservists to Wagner, however.[6] Prigozhin claimed on April 24 that the Russian MoD only deployed irregular and degraded units to hold Bakhmut’s flanks, and the inability of these units to fulfill even this limited mission indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similarly-manned areas of the front are likely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.[7] The MoD’s allocation of forces combined with changes in the geometry of the battlespace also suggests that the danger of a Russian encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut may have passed. Wagner forces will likely continue conducting frontal assaults in Bakhmut, which would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct organized withdrawals from threatened areas in a shallower partial envelopment rather than facing encirclement on a large scale.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive because it is waiting for the delivery of promised military aid. Zelensky told the BBC that some of the expected military equipment has not arrived in Ukraine and that, although Ukrainian forces are ready for the counteroffensive, Ukraine would suffer too many casualties.[8] Zelensky also stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is important to prevent Russia from freezing the war.

 

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” He said that Russia has “partially” achieved the goals of “protecting” people in Donbas,[9] but added that Russia is still far from fully achieving these goals. He said that it was ”hard to believe” at the beginning of the war that NATO, the United States, and European countries would ”intervene in this conflict.” ISW previously reported that the Kremlin has begun to shift its domestic narratives to claim that Russia is fighting only against NATO in an effort to set informational conditions for potential Russian military failures during the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.[10] Peskov’s statement is consistent with the new Russian narrative but contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements prior to the February 24, 2022 invasion. Putin stated on February 21, 2022, that Russia is ”not fighting the Ukrainian people” and claimed that Ukraine had become a hostage of its ”Western masters.”[11] The Russian pre-war justification for the invasion relied heavily on portraying a NATO threat to Russia supposedly emanating from Ukraine.[12]

 

Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia. Two Kremlin sources told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that the Kremlin saw Prigozhin’s attempts to blackmail the Russian MoD on May 5 as a “serious threat” and that Prigozhin is not acting in the Kremlin’s interests.[13] One interlocutor stated that Prigozhin is committed to claiming Bakhmut as a personal victory in order to have influence over the Russian MoD. The Kremlin reportedly expressed further concerns over Prigozhin’s May 9 mockery of the “happy grandfather” figure who is responsible for future Russian generations.[14] ISW assessed on May 9 that Prigozhin was likely referring to Putin, and a Kremlin source claims that Prigozhin’s statement was a direct allusion to Putin. The second interlocutor claimed that Prigozhin’s rhetoric cannot be interpreted as a “direct attack” on Putin, however. Prigozhin attempted on May 10 to downplay his original statements, claiming that the “happy grandfather” did not refer to Putin.[15] The sources noted that Prigozhin’s escalating behavior is likely a result of his inability to meet an unspecified deadline for the capture of Bakhmut. One source claimed that Prigozhin is blaming conventional units in order to avoid accepting responsibility for failing to follow through on his “personal promise” to capture Bakhmut.

 

The interlocutors noted that Prigozhin may have crossed the Kremlin’s “red lines” and may alienate his supporters within the Russian inner circle. Prigozhin reportedly is losing contact with one of his patrons, Russian billionaire and Putin’s “personal banker” Yuriy Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk was reportedly one of the leading voices supporting the full-scale invasion of Ukraine after developing a strong relationship with Putin during the Covid-19 pandemic.[16] The sources noted that Russian propagandists received a directive to discredit Prigozhin as a traitor if he continues to critique the Kremlin – an effort that has previously failed.[17] The sources assessed that Prigozhin is not at risk while Wagner is still on the frontline, which allows Prigozhin to have contact with Putin.

 

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied official Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.[18] Kremlin newswire TASS reported on May 11 that a “high-ranking source in the Russian MoD” denied reports that Ukraine intercepted a Kinzhal missile. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk had reported that Ukrainian forces used the Patriot system to shoot down a Kinzhal missile in the air over Kyiv Oblast at night on May 4.[19] The Russian MoD denied this report only after the US Department of Defense confirmed on May 9 that a Patriot air defense system had shot down a Russian Kinzhal missile.[20]

 

Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol as oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church continues in Russian-occupied Crimea. The Commissioner of the Crimean Eparchy of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, Metropolitan Kliment of Simferopol, and Crimean journalist Andriy Shchekun reported on May 11 that representatives of the Russian State Property Fund of the Republic of Crimea and other occupation authorities broke down the doors of the church and began stealing the property of the cathedral.[21] ISW has previously reported on Russia’s religious repression throughout occupied Ukraine.[22]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive because it is waiting for the delivery of promised military aid.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
• Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.
• Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol as oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church continues in Russian-occupied Crimea.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to conduct localized counterattacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
• Russia needs to produce over 29 million shells per year to satisfy Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demands for Wagner to use 80,000 shells per day – 13 times more than Russia’s pre-invasion annual production rate.
• Russian officials continue to threaten and seek to manipulate international humanitarian efforts by threatening to dissolve the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on May 18.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

New Rybar map showing today’s Russian retreat north west of Bakhmut:

 

 

Here’s yesterday’s Bakhmut situation:

 

 

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All involved parties more or less agree in reference to the latest developments around Bakhmut. 

 

Russian lines along the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut are crumbling. But also in the city itself Russians have been losing ground. More importantly, this also confirms that the Ukrainian supply lines have gotten considerable relief and are in no immediate way to be cut off.

 

Also, I don't think that this is *the* counteroffensive, but more of a local development based on the Russian loss of troops and, effectively, momentum. Prigozhin's complaint might be genuine, considering that Shoigu will need all reserves for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and most certainly will not be inclined to help his rival.

 

Either way, in my opinion and judging the current situation the Ukrainian determination to continue to defend Bakhmut has turned out to be the absolutely right decision.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Further analyses regarding current UAF operations:

 

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While all indications are that these are just localized counterattacks, it's worth noting that Ukrainian forces are making gains without any indication of deploying reserves or fresh forces. The first stage of the counteroffensive (shaping operations) seems to be here.

 

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Ukrainian forces have begun “shaping” operations in advance of a counteroffensive against Russian forces, a senior US military official and senior Western official tell CNN.

 

[CitizenVectron]

31 Abrams have arrived in Germany, possibly up to a year ahead of schedule. These will likely be used for training, with deployment of the actual Abrams (which are being pulled from existing stocks now, rather than waiting for new builds) to come in the following months/year.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

New Rybar map showing today’s Russian retreat north west of Bakhmut:

 

 

Here’s yesterday’s Bakhmut situation:

 

 

 

 

To put this in perspective, in one day Ukraine reversed 2.5 months of Russian advances.

[CitizenVectron]

Oil depot (?) was struck in the occupied city of Luhansk, more than 100km from the frontlines. Eye witnesses claim it was some kind of cruise missile. Storm Shadow? It appears that Ukraine is increasing the frequency of long-range strikes, and is definitely targeting the Russians' fuel infrastructure.

 

EDIT - Reports are two missiles struck, either cruise or ballistic. 

 

EDIT 2 - Separate targets in Luhansk. One was oil facility, the other was a repair plant used by the Russians.

 

EDIT 3 - Both strikes were against the machine plant:

 

[CayceG]

Evidence of Ukraine using a US-supplied air launched decoy has shown up:

 

 

 

That's this:

ADM-160 MALD - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

It likely was used to draw out air defenses. 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine used decoys to confuse air defense to allow the two cruise/ballistic missiles to get through:

 

 

ADM-160B MALD (Miniature Air-Launched Decoy) wreckage near the strike.

[CitizenVectron]

Apparently that decoy can simulate the radar profile of any US aircraft in usage. 

[CitizenVectron]

[CayceG]

Could have been anything in Ukrainian service. MiG-29 or Su-27. Even the Su-24. 

[mclumber1]

Just now, CayceG said:

Could have been anything in Ukrainian service. MiG-29 or Su-27. Even the Su-24. 

 

No it was Ukrainian Air Force F-16 

[PaladinSolo]

1 hour ago, mclumber1 said:

 

No it was Ukrainian Air Force F-16 

No it was a NATO F-16 

[elbobo]

it is pretty clear at this point that they have found a way to hang a lot of western gear off MiGs over the last year

[CayceG]

3 minutes ago, elbobo said:

it is pretty clear at this point that they have found a way to hang a lot of western gear off MiGs over the last year

 

 

Raytheon looking at all those third world countries that bought Russian jet fighters like 

 

[CitizenVectron]

From CNN:

 

 

Patriot took out a hypersonic missile that was aimed at the Patriot battery

[PaladinSolo]

I don't get how hypersonics are supposed to be any harder to knock down, other than time to target shooting them down on the other end doesn't mean you need a faster missile just an accurate one that has a good idea of where its going.  Their extreme speed also makes slight maneuvers to avoid intercepts difficult as the extra stress and heat could cause it to destroy itself though i'm sure someone will figure it out eventually.

[CitizenVectron]

4 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

I don't get how hypersonics are supposed to be any harder to knock down, other than time to target shooting them down on the other end doesn't mean you need a faster missile just an accurate one that has a good idea of where its going.  Their extreme speed also makes slight maneuvers to avoid intercepts difficult as the extra stress and heat could cause it to destroy itself though i'm sure someone will figure it out eventually.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how much more difficult they are to shoot down other than the reduced time to react/track. I don't know if it was someone here or elsewhere that put it well, which is something like:

 

Russia boasts and boasts about the futuristic prowess of their weapons, but the weapons turn out to be duds. The US, on the other hand, builds their weapons to counter the full hypothetical potential of these Russian weapons, and actually succeeds.

[PaladinSolo]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how much more difficult they are to shoot down other than the reduced time to react/track. I don't know if it was someone here or elsewhere that put it well, which is something like:

 

Russia boasts and boasts about the futuristic prowess of their weapons, but the weapons turn out to be duds. The US, on the other hand, builds their weapons to counter the full hypothetical potential of these Russian weapons, and actually succeeds.

Yeah, F-15 comes to mind, was built to counter the MiG-25 which was supposed to be some Russian super fighter than we couldn't touch, then when a pilot defected with one we found out the F-15 absolutely outclasses it in just about every way but absolute top speed because the US severely overestimated its abilities and built the F-15 to those specs.

[Jwheel86]

Army Special Forces soldiers vs Russian mercenaries in Syria

TASKANDPURPOSE.COM

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Here's how the grueling 2018 firefight went down.

 

 

Good read. 

[Jason]

8 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Yeah, I'm not sure how much more difficult they are to shoot down other than the reduced time to react/track. I don't know if it was someone here or elsewhere that put it well, which is something like:

 

Russia boasts and boasts about the futuristic prowess of their weapons, but the weapons turn out to be duds. The US, on the other hand, builds their weapons to counter the full hypothetical potential of these Russian weapons, and actually succeeds.

 

I think I saw something that no other country would call Russia's "hypersonic" missiles hypsersonic.

[CitizenVectron]

Another strike in occupied Luhansk. Fragments of a Storm Shadow were found. Also big uptick in strikes against Russian artillery positions overnight.