Jump to content

Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

CitizenVectron
 Share

Recommended Posts

CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I've said before that one of the beautiful things about Eastern European culture is how nihilistic it is (in that it approaches life as a series of tragedies that you must do what you can to get through). But it also unfortunately also allows the shrugging of shoulders at horrible things that "must be done."

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted

ISW analysis for 27 August 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
The volunteer battalions constituting Russia’s 3rd Army Corps will likely deploy to Ukraine in ad hoc combined arms units to renew offensive operations, possibly on the Donetsk City axis and the Southern Axis. The volunteer battalions Russia has been f

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

The volunteer battalions constituting Russia’s 3rd Army Corps will likely deploy to Ukraine in ad hoc combined arms units to renew offensive operations, possibly on the Donetsk City axis and the Southern Axis. The volunteer battalions Russia has been forming have been divided into two general groups, as ISW has previously reported. Some battalions are deploying to the front lines as soon as they have completed their abbreviated initial training. Others have been coalescing into a new 3rd Army Corps.[1] An analysis by Janes Intelligence Group of new images from combat training for elements of the 3rd Army Corps at the Mulino Training Ground in Nizhny Novogorod found 3rd Army Corps troops training with more modern Russian equipment such as BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, T-80BVM and T-90M tanks, and the latest AK-12 assault rifle variants.[2] The other Russian volunteer battalions that have fought in Ukraine, such as the North Ossetian “Alania” Battalion, have not entered combat with older equipment. The fact that the 3rd Army Corps units are training on better gear and apparently being held back to deploy in more coherent combined arms groups suggests that the Russian military intends to commit them to offensive operations and hopes to regain momentum somewhere along the front line. Elements of the 3rd Army Corps are reportedly already deploying from Nizhny Novgorod closer towards Russia’s border with Ukraine. The Georgia-based Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) observed T-80BV and T-90M tanks that were in Mulino likely of the 3rd Army Corps deploy to Rostov Oblast on August 27.[3] If this report is correct, it could suggest that the Russian military intends to commit the 3rd Army Corps to reinforce offensive operations near Donetsk City, where drives around Mariinka, Pisky, and Avdiivka have been stalling after making some gains. Elements of the 3rd Army Corps may also deploy to the Southern Axis. A Russian Local media outlet reported that the Khabarovsk Krai “Baron Korf” signals battalion will support the deployment of Russian field posts in Kherson Oblast and provide command and control to the new Russian 3rd Army Corps, indicating the Kremlin will likely deploy 3rd Army Corps elements to Kherson and Ukraine’s south.[4] 3rd Army Corps elements are unlikely to generate effective combat power, however. Better equipment does not necessarily make more effective forces when the personnel are not well-trained or disciplined, as many members of the 3rd Army Corps’ volunteer units are not. Previous military experience is not required for many of 3rd Army Corps’ volunteer elements.[5] Images of the 3rd Army Corp elements have shown the volunteers to be physically unfit and old.[6] Analysts have also noted that Russia’s lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (NCOs) will hurt the 3rd Army Corps effectiveness.[7] ISW has previously commented on reports of indiscipline among the personnel of the 3rd Army Corps as well.[8]

 

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast on August 27, suggesting that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded even further. [9] A 10-person group amounts to a squad, which is too small to act effectively as a maneuver unit. If the Southern Operational Command correctly reported the size and mission of this unit, it would indicate that Russian ground forces in Ukraine have degraded to the point that they are attempting to conduct offensive operations and echelons too low to make meaningful gains. ISW has no independent confirmation of the current size of Russian assault echelons attempting ground attacks in Ukraine, but this report is consistent with the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian logistics capabilities in western Kherson Oblast and ISW’s prior assessments of diminished Russian military morale in Ukraine.[10]

 

Key Takeaways

  • Volunteer battalions that comprise Russia’s 3rd Army Corps are likely being prepared to attempt offensive combined arms operations but will likely lack sufficient combat power to make a material difference on the battlefield.
  • Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that a 10-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted assault operations in Kherson Oblast, indicating that Russian offensive capabilities in Kherson Oblast have degraded further.
  • Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum, northeast of Siversk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian forces targeted Russian airborne command-and-control elements in western Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian and Ukrainian sources traded accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian military leadership may be shifting to a new phase of mobilization in central Russia and have likely exhausted pools of potential recruits in more peripheral and disenfranchised regions.
  • Russian authorities are intensifying law enforcement operations in occupied areas.

 

 

DraftUkraineCOTAugust27,2022.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mclumber1

mclumber1

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

Not to get too geopolitically egotistical here but I always felt like Ukraine losing Crimea was a black mark for the US too. Really hoping they can take it all back.

 

Assuming Ukraine retakes Crimea, then what?  Isn't much of Crimea ethnically and linguistically Russian?  Would the people there accept being Ukrainian citizens again?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CayceG

CayceG

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Assuming Ukraine retakes Crimea, then what?  Isn't much of Crimea ethnically and linguistically Russian?  Would the people there accept being Ukrainian citizens again?

 

That tends to happen after ethnic cleansings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

8 years since Russia slaughtered Ukrainian soldiers retreating under the white flag (as agreed upon).

Its wild to me how much Ukraine's military has transformed since then, they spent those 8 years training with the west and fighting and learning, while Russia apparently didn't pay any attention.  Also speaks to how motivated Ukraine is compared to Afghanistan and Iraq as our attempts to create competent militaries there were disasters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Also missile strikes in Melitopol, which is in Russian-held Zaporizhzhia:

 

 

 

Most people believe that while Ukraine is hitting hard right now (and lots of artillery overnight), that this is merely the shaping stage of the offensive, and that the true offensive will begin tonight, once the frontlines are softened/broken. 

 

Amazingly, I expect to see many air strikes, including the return of the Bayraktars and other large drones, now that Ukraine has near-aerial supremacy in the Kherson area. I also expect Ukraine to perform most of their attacks at night due to their huge advantage. The Russians lack almost any IR/NV gear, while Ukraine has a bunch given over the past few years from the US/UK. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...