Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[CitizenVectron]

How long can soldiers realistically be effective without rotation away from the front? I've read that the US believed in WWII it to be around 80 days before men would need months of recuperation. Right now the Russian troops (almost half of whom are conscripts) have been at war for 75 days, with an additional one to ten months of "training" in muddy fields before that.

[Jason]

26 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

So how does it work? Would it be secure enough for military operations?

 

GPS receivers are configured to track the GPS constellation. GPS is one way. You can deny GPS via jamming or by turning off the satellites. Civilian GPS uses one signal that's accurate to within IIRC 10 meters, the military has a second encrypted signal they use that gets it down to within a couple of feet. 

[Jason]

Garmin is primarily selling you the maps. But every GPS receiver is tracking the GPS constellation; smartphones generally have the hardware to pick up multiple GNSS constellations, off the top of my head there's GPS, Glonass, Beidu, and Galileo. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 10 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on May 10. Ukrainian forces liberated several towns north of Kharkiv City and continued pushing north of the recently

 

 

Quote

 

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on May 10. Ukrainian forces liberated several towns north of Kharkiv City and continued pushing north of the recently liberated Staryi Saltiv to capture several towns northeast of Kharkiv: a Russian source claimed that Ukrainian troops advanced to within 10km of the Russian border, though ISW cannot independently confirm these specific claims.[1] Russian forces from the Izyum area are reportedly redeploying northwards to attempt to alleviate the pressure of this counteroffensive and stymie further northward advances toward the Russian border.[2] The Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely continue to divert Russian troops and resources from deployment to other axes of advance where fighting has been similarly stalled out by the successful Ukrainian defense. The counteroffensive will impede the ability of Russian artillery to target the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv City, will potentially enable Ukrainian forces to threaten Russian rear areas with their own shelling and further attacks, and—if Ukrainian forces are able to further advance the counteroffensive or Russian forces collapse along the Kharkiv axis and withdraw further—unhinge Russian offensive operations around Izyum.

 

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense escalated its false claims of US and NATO preparations to attack Belarus while announcing the start of a second stage of ongoing military exercises on May 10. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced the second stage of ongoing rapid response forces exercises on May 10 in response to what he falsely claimed were NATO escalations.[3] Belarusian First Deputy Minister of Defense Victor Gulevich accused the US and its allies of building up a military presence around Belarusian borders and claimed that Poland and the Baltic states are threatening Belarusian territory through reconnaissance, sabotage, and special operations.[4] Gulevich announced that Belarusian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) will subsequently advance to the Western and Northwestern operational zones as part of a ”whole range of measures aimed at countering possible threats” in these areas.[5] Gulevich additionally stated that the presence of 20,000 Ukrainian troops in Belarus’ Southern Operational District have necessitated a deployment of unspecified Belarusian troops to three tactical directions near the Ukrainian border, which is consistent with Ukrainian General Staff reporting that certain Belarusian units have deployed to the Ukraine-Belarus border area for a combat readiness check.[6]

 

The rhetoric of threats to Belarus’ borders is not new and was frequently employed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[7] The Belarusian exercises, which are concentrated on Belarus’ borders with Poland and the Baltic States rather than Ukraine, are likely primarily demonstrative and signal Belarus’ continued political support for Russia‘s war in Ukraine. The exercises are likely additionally intended to draw NATO attention and possibly disrupt NATO aid to Ukraine, rather than threatening an actual military operation—similar to Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova that are likely intended to distract Romania and NATO rather than directly threaten Odesa.  Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine. Lukashenko successfully repressed domestic opposition in 2020 and 2021 but remains vulnerable to further domestic unrest if his security apparatus weakens; he is likely unwilling to risk losing his military in a stalled and deteriorating Russian war in Ukraine.

 

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv took further ground and have possibly closed to within 10km of the Russian border.
• Belarusian authorities are escalating rhetoric accusing NATO and the US of threatening Belarusian borders, but Belarus remains unlikely to join the war.
• Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled.
• DNR and Russian forces are advancing efforts to consolidate their control of the ruins of Mariupol, including reportedly attempting to reopen steel plants to produce military equipment.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine continued attempts to encircle the Severodonetsk area and reportedly reached the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border from Popasna.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces did not conduct any significant attacks on the southern axis.

 

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence  briefing" for Days 73-76:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The UK has signed a security pact with Sweden to defend it in case of Russian attack and is expected to sign a similar pact with Finland later today.

 

This all but confirms that both Sweden and Finland are intent on joining NATO.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Littleronin]

2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Some call it failure. The Russians call it creative bridge building. 

 

[CitizenVectron]

11 minutes ago, Littleronin said:

Some call it failure. The Russians call it creative bridge building. 

 

 

 

The larger picture is even worse:

 

 

The Russians built a pontoon bridge, and the Ukrainians waited until a bunch of vehicles cross before blowing it, then mopped up the far bank.

[CitizenVectron]

The losses from this crossing alone:

 

 

[Littleronin]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

The larger picture is even worse:

 

 

The Russians built a pontoon bridge, and the Ukrainians waited until a bunch of vehicles cross before blowing it, then mopped up the far bank.

I keep telling my son that it isn't possible for the Russian military to look worse than <insert previous stupid thing here>, yet here we are...

[CayceG]

I don't think this makes the Russian military look too bad. It's a bad event, sure. But it's something that just will occur in a war. Bridge heads are strategic points that are vulnerable. This can happen. 

 

It speaks more to the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery spotting.

[Link200]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

I don't think this makes the Russian military look too bad. It's a bad event, sure. But it's something that just will occur in a war. Bridge heads are strategic points that are vulnerable. This can happen. 

 

It speaks more to the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery spotting.

 

How is it not bad for them if they keep doing essentially the same thing over and over again expecting a different result?

[CitizenVectron]

Sounds like Russia will absorb Kherson Oblast (and the entire occupied south) into Russia itself.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

4 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The UK has signed a security pact with Sweden to defend it in case of Russian attack and is expected to sign a similar pact with Finland later today.

 

This all but confirms that both Sweden and Finland are intent on joining NATO.

 

The UK/Finland security pact has been signed.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Ukraine is set to begin its first war crimes trial of three Russian POWs:

 

Ukraine prosecutors ready to launch first war crimes trials of Russia conflict | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Russian soldier who allegedly killed man before raping his wife to be among first to face trial

 

Quote

 

Three Russian prisoners of war accused of targeting or murdering civilians, and a soldier who allegedly killed a man before raping his wife, are set to be in the dock in the first war crimes trials of the Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian prosecutor general has revealed.

 

More than 10,700 crimes have been registered since the war began by the office of Ukraine’s prosecutor general, led by Iryna Venediktova, and a handful of cases have now been filed or are ready to be submitted in what marks a watershed moment two months into the war.

Vadim Shysimarin, a 21-year-old commander of the Kantemirovskaya Tank Division, who is currently in Ukrainian custody, is expected to be the first to face trial over his alleged murder of a 68-year-old man.

 

It is alleged Shysimarin, a sergeant, had been fighting in the Sumy region in north-east Ukraine when he killed a civilian on 28 February in the village of Chupakhivka. He is accused of driving a stolen car with four other soldiers as he sought to flee Ukrainian fighters and then shooting dead the unarmed man on a bicycle as he was talking on his phone. He was ordered “to kill a civilian so he would not report them to Ukrainian defenders”, according to prosecutors.

 

 

[brucoe]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

The larger picture is even worse:

 

 

The Russians built a pontoon bridge, and the Ukrainians waited until a bunch of vehicles cross before blowing it, then mopped up the far bank.

I remember the first time crossing a HUGE river in Germany in a Humvee. I was a young lieutenant, and I was saying I don't think it's wise, but this master sergeant was standing on the ground saying that it could be done if I aimed for the wake. And it would have taken hours to go the long way around. Man, I was scared crossing that river, especially as it seemed there were waves growing (on a river) and then we made it. That's when I learned that you trust the people who know what they're doing and forget that most of the rest of us are morons until we're taught otherwise.

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Oberon]

So when Ukraine inevitably wins this war against Russia, with all the military aid they have been getting,

 

They effectively become the strongest , best trained and best equipped military in Europe?

[CayceG]

1 minute ago, Oberon said:

So when Ukraine inevitably wins this war against Russia, with all the military aid they have been getting,

 

They effectively become the strongest , best trained and best equipped military in Europe?

 

 

 

They are indeed highly trained. They are experienced in combat against a larger-than-peer threat. They will still have a sizeable portion of Soviet-era equipment and by no means will they be the best equipped. 

 

But Ukraine is and always has been one of the largest militaries in Europe that wasn't Russia (since 1991 at least).

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 11 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and

 

 

Quote

 

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and necessitated reinforcement and replenishment efforts intended to prevent further Ukrainian advances towards the Russian border. Russian efforts along the Southern Axis and in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts remain similarly stalled, and Russian forces have not made any significant gains in the face of continued successful Ukrainian defenses.

 

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and has successfully alleviated artillery pressure on Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Ukrainian positions in the Severodonetsk-Rubizhne-Lysychansk area but did not make any confirmed advances.
• Russian forces may be initiating a new advance towards Bakhmut after capturing Popasna in order to secure highway access north to Slovyansk.
• Russian forces are attempting to consolidate their positions in western Kherson Oblast to push into Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Pro-Russian Telegram sources reported Ukrainian forces may be conducting a counterattack 40km north of Izyum to cut off Russian units in this key town, though ISW cannot confirm these reports at this time.

 

 

 

[CayceG]

Here's a wild map. It's the location data for Russian SIM cards in Ukraine. 

 

 

 

 

 

And here's a report on the situation in Kherson. It's a thread. 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, CayceG said:

Here's a wild map. It's the location data for Russian SIM cards in Ukraine. 

 

 

 

 

 

And here's a report on the situation in Kherson. It's a thread. 

 

 

 

A ResetERA poster who lives in Kherson provides occasional updates on the situation there. 

[CayceG]

10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

A ResetERA poster who lives in Kherson provides occasional updates on the situation there. 

 

What are they saying about things?

[CitizenVectron]

Looks like the damage done by Ukraine to that Russian river crossing was larger than initially thought:

 

 

[CayceG]

Okay, this is extremely LOL now. 

 

 

The Ukrainians are VERY good at this and the Russians are VERY VERY bad.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

 

What are they saying about things?

Some posts from him:

 

April 2:

I’m fine, thanks. Russians mind their own business most of the time and the city feels isolated from war

 

April 21:

Yeah, still hoping not to be forcibly conscripted by the Russians and killed by our own army.

 

April 25:

I was talking to people yesterday who called their friends somewhere in that area, russians are still there they say. We hear a lot of artillery and some anti-air explosions lately.

 

May 11:

There aren't many sympathizers. People mostly stopped protesting because protests are violently repressed and participants are sometimes captured and held somewhere, and no sign of UAF being able to recapture the region in the near future, if at all.

 

30 minutes ago:

Thanks. Yeah we're fine here, seems possible to just wait and hope for things to get better.

[CitizenVectron]

Someone made a graphic of the difference the US/Canada-supplied M777 artillery makes in terms of fighting the Russians (and their artillery):

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

15 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Someone made a graphic of the difference the US/Canada-supplied M777 artillery makes in terms of fighting the Russians (and their artillery):

 

 

Which piece of Russian artillery?

 

Because a lot of guns the Russians use have longer ranges than 18 km.

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

 

Which piece of Russian artillery?

 

Because a lot of guns the Russians use have longer ranges than 18 km.

 

I can't find the reddit post now, but it was their most common gun. Apparently the only common weapon they have which outranges 18km (by that they meant they use a lot of them) were MRLS systems. They have range, but are not accurate.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

I love the beat drops in all these vids