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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine


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12 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Russia is having major electrical and natural gas/heating issues right now. It's gotten much colder, and many of their systems are failing around Moscow. Right now there are hundreds of thousands of homes in the Moscow region without power or heat, and many trains operating without heat. Basically just infrastructure degradation combined with a lack of replacement parts. Also big shortages of chicken and eggs. 

 

Which came first?

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Primary warehouse for Russia's Amazon (Wildberries) completely burned down in Moscow:

 

WWW.MSN.COM

 

Massive fire. Russian officials had previously raised this facility (1,600 workers) to abduct foreign workers to conscript into the army and fight in Ukraine. The fire is believed to be arson in retaliation for the company allowing the government to do this.

 

The fire alarms had previously been disabled by the company, as well.

 

cC2g9kS.png

 

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13 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Honestly engaging a tank in a bradley without a TOW seems crazy, lol, but apparently Russian tank crews can't hit shit or their optics are garbage.

Yeah, my very first thought was why the tank wasn’t pressing forward, clearly undertrained.

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A Russian AWACS A-50 aircraft appears to have been shot down, along with an Il-22 sigint plane that was possibly shot down, but at least damaged. No confirmation of source of attack, but possibly Russian air defense targeted their own intelligence aircraft. Big loss for Russia, they likely only have a handful of working AWACS craft left.

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Sounds like Ukraine performed the strikes on the planes. IL-22 was heavily damaged with potential deaths, A-50 completely destroyed. Russia is internally saying it was a friendly fire incident, mainly to make pilots feel safer. If Ukraine is hiding a Patriot system in Kherson/Zaporizhzhia and Russia can't find/destroy it, then pilots aren't going to want to fly so close to the front. But if it's friendly fire...then they can claim the unit responsible was punished and it won't happen again, etc.

 

Also, sounds like an Su-34 was almost taken down over the Sea of Azov today. So...Ukraine either has a Patriot system near the frontlines in the south, or possibly an older S-200 system (they have good range).

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7th airline plane in Russia to break down mid-flight (and have to land) in a week. More and more flights are being cancelled (and crews reduced) in Russia due to lack of repair parts for planes, thanks to sanctions. 

 

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WWW.FORBES.COM

Exactly how the Ukrainians shot down the four-engine A-50 is unclear, but analyst Tom Cooper has a theory. Ukrainian missile crews lured the Russian crew into a trap.

 

Quote

 

Exactly how the Ukrainians shot down the four-engine A-50 with its top-mounted radar is unclear, but analyst Tom Cooper—who has written many books about Soviet and Russian warplanes—has a theory.

 

Ukrainian radar and missile crews lured the Russian crews into a trap.

 

If Cooper’s theory is correct, the Ukrainians set the trap on Saturday, when Ukrainian air force jets—presumably Sukhoi Su-24 bombers—struck Russian air force installations across the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. “A number of radars were knocked out,” Cooper reported.

 

The Saturday strikes, the latest in a long campaign of Ukrainian raids on Russian defenses in Crimea, suppressed the Russians’ ground-based radar coverage, leaving the surviving missile batteries on the peninsula partially blind—especially to the north, where the terrain could mask incoming Ukrainian planes, drones and missiles.

 

So Russian commanders did the obvious, but stupid, thing. They ordered one of their few remaining A-50U radar planes, which normally fly far to the south over the Sea of Azov, to push farther north in order to extend radar coverage over most of Crimea. An A-50’s rotating radar can see airplane-size targets nearly 200 miles away.

 

 

The original blog post from Tom Cooper:

 

XXTOMCOOPERXX.SUBSTACK.COM

Hello everybody! So much is going on the last two days - in Ukraine and in the Middle East - that I can’t even decide what way to look as first and what to comment about. Even less so can I summarise all of this in form of ‘useful’ articles - at once. Sure, I’ll try, but…

 

 

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  • Commissar SFLUFAN changed the title to Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (17 Jan 2024) - analyst Tom Cooper posits that UAF radar/missile crews lured the Russian A-50 into a "trap"
14 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:
WWW.FORBES.COM

Exactly how the Ukrainians shot down the four-engine A-50 is unclear, but analyst Tom Cooper has a theory. Ukrainian missile crews lured the Russian crew into a trap.

 

 

The original blog post from Tom Cooper:

 

XXTOMCOOPERXX.SUBSTACK.COM

Hello everybody! So much is going on the last two days - in Ukraine and in the Middle East - that I can’t even decide what way to look as first and what to comment about. Even less so can I summarise all of this in form of ‘useful’ articles - at once. Sure, I’ll try, but…

 

 

Quote

If there’s any comfort for the Russians, it might be that the Ukrainian air force does not have a limitless supply of PAC-2 missiles. Unless and until pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress approve the $61 billion in fresh aid to Ukraine that U.S. president Joe Biden has proposed, the Ukrainians may need to begin rationing their missiles—and taking fewer chances on ambitious missile traps.

 

*eye twitches*

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The underrated success of the past twelve months: Ukraine has recaptured the Black Sea for international shipping, having driven back the Russian fleet through a series of devastating missile and drone attacks on ships at sea as well as ports. Grain shipments are approaching pre-war levels:

 

WWW.EPRAVDA.COM.UA

Òåìïû ýêñïîðòà àãðîïðîäóêöèè ïî �çåðíîâîìó êîðèäîðó� â ×åðíîì ìîðå ïî÷òè âåðíóëèñü ê äîâîåííîìó óðîâíþ, à ñòîèìîñòü ñòðàõîâàíèÿ ãðóçîâ ñóùåñòâåííî ñíèçèëàñü.
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WWW.THEMOSCOWTIMES.COM

Authorities in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk on Friday declared a state of emergency amid a series of heating pipe bursts that have left residents without central heating in freezing temperatures. “Unfortunately, in the area of the heating system failure... things are getting worse,” Novosibirsk region Governor Andrei Travnikov wrote on the messaging app Telegram.

 

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KYIVINDEPENDENT.COM

The NATO Support and Procurement Agency concluded the deal on behalf of allies who will either pass shells to Ukraine or use them to refill their own arsenals.

 

This is good, but I wonder how soon the shells will actually arrive. Yes, the west has a medium-term pipeline for new systems that should start ramping up by the end of this year...but that doesn't help if Russia is able to take Kharkiv in the meantime. Russia is out-shelling Ukraine 10:1 on some parts of the front thanks to North Korean artillery shells. Meanwhile, the west has used up South Korea's surplus supply and no one is donating anything else (hint: because Europe only has enough shells of their own to sustain 1-3 days of actual war). The US has the supplies needed, but the GOP is controlled by Russia at this point and will not consent to further aid.

 

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KYIVINDEPENDENT.COM

The NATO Support and Procurement Agency concluded the deal on behalf of allies who will either pass shells to Ukraine or use them to refill their own arsenals.

 

This is good, but I wonder how soon the shells will actually arrive. Yes, the west has a medium-term pipeline for new systems that should start ramping up by the end of this year...but that doesn't help if Russia is able to take Kharkiv in the meantime. Russia is out-shelling Ukraine 10:1 on some parts of the front thanks to North Korean artillery shells. Meanwhile, the west has used up South Korea's surplus supply and no one is donating anything else (hint: because Europe only has enough shells of their own to sustain 1-3 days of actual war). The US has the supplies needed, but the GOP is controlled by Russia at this point and will not consent to further aid.

 

Last night Russia also launched a fairly large wave of missiles, and only 50% were intercepted. Ukraine's AA stocks might also be running low.

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WWW.THREADS.NET

The moment the Il-76 plane crashed was caught on video. It seems the plane already occurred severe damage before going down to the ground.

 

A Russian IL-76 large transport plane crashed in the Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting Ukrainian POWs...but the list they've provided include POWs already swapped, so they are certainly lying. Flight trackers indicate the plane was actually in Iran the day before, so it was likely actually carrying Iranian drones/missiles. Around the time of the crash Russia announced the shootdown of a Ukrainian drone in the same area...so possibly they shot it down (which wouldn't be a freak case, Russia has shot down quite a few of their own fighters/helicopters). 

 

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Ukraine struck the Belbek airbase in occupied Crimea today using some kind of missiles (GLSDBs?). Breaking the rule below to post a shot. Russia claims to have intercepted all missiles (20)...and I guess that's true, if you include grounded aircraft which prevented the missiles from impacting the ground directly!

 

Sources on the ground are claiming at least three jets destroyed, and around 9 GRU special forces killed.

 

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1752748095463448591?s=20

 

 

 

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On an unrelated note, the National Ballet of Ukraine is currently touring Canada, raising funds for the war effort. I will be performing on-stage with them tonight in my city as my dance group closes the show with our Hopak, the traditional dance where men and women show off with flips and tricks. It's based on the ancient tradition of Zaporizhzhian Cossacks re-enacting their battles around bonfires.

 

4Jzwr4Z.jpeg

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

On an unrelated note, the National Ballet of Ukraine is currently touring Canada, raising funds for the war effort. I will be performing on-stage with them tonight in my city as my dance group closes the show with our Hopak, the traditional dance where men and women show off with flips and tricks. It's based on the ancient tradition of Zaporizhzhian Cossacks re-enacting their battles around bonfires.

 

4Jzwr4Z.jpeg

 

 

 

 

Post photos or videos from the performance if possible. 

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24 minutes ago, Jason said:

thank you dark brandon

 

WWW.FORBES.COM

As the Republican Party’s blockade of aid to Ukraine drags on, Pres. Joe Biden has found a new way to give Ukraine’s forces the weapons they need to defend their country.

 

 

This is great news, but why can't Biden give the surplus gear to Ukraine? Is the authority for this limited to NATO allies?

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35 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

This is great news, but why can't Biden give the surplus gear to Ukraine? Is the authority for this limited to NATO allies?

 

Per the article, the US is giving Greece our surplus gear with the understanding that Greece will turn around and give their surplus gear to Ukraine. The US gear is not going to Ukraine. 

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22 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Per the article, the US is giving Greece our surplus gear with the understanding that Greece will turn around and give their surplus gear to Ukraine. The US gear is not going to Ukraine. 

 

Right, but why can't the US just gift stuff to Ukraine? I assume a limitation of the act that allows this?

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